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11b
Money and Inflation
Introduction to Economics
ETH Zürich, Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm
Winter Term 2006/07
General Information
24.10.
Introduction; Transformation Curve, Opportunity Cost
Mankiw ch.1,2
31.10.
Markets: Demand and Supply
Ch. 4
7.11.
Elasticities
Ch. 5
14.11.
Costs, Production Function
Ch. 13
21.11.
Markets with perfect competiton
Ch. 7, 14
28.11.
Taxation
Ch. 8
5.12.
International Trade
Ch. 9
12.12.
Imperfect competition: Monopoly, and Oligoploy
Ch. 15, 16
19.12.
Public Goods, Externalities
Ch. 10,11
9.1.
National Accounting, Gross Domestic Product, Growth
Ch. 23, 25
16.1.
Money and Inflation
Ch. 24, 29, 30
23.1.
Business Cycles
Ch. 33, 34
30.1.
Open Economy Macro
Ch. 31
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The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality
• According to Hume and others, real economic variables do not
change with changes in the money supply.
• According to the classical dichotomy, different forces influence real
and nominal variables.
• Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not
real variables.
• The irrelevance of monetary changes for real variables is called
monetary neutrality.
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Velocity and the Quantity Equation
• The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical
dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet.
V = (P  Y)/M
• Where:
V = velocity
P = price level
Y = quantity of output
M = quantity of money
• http://www.wheresgeorge.com/ (US)
• http://www.eurobilltracker.com/ (euro area)
• http://www.cashfollow.ch/
(CH)
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Velocity and the Quantity Equation
• Rewriting the equation gives the quantity equation:
MV=PY
• The quantity equation relates the quantity of money (M) to the
nominal value of output
(P  Y).
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Velocity and the Quantity Equation
• The quantity equation shows that an increase in the quantity of
money in an economy must be reflected in one of three other
variables:
• the price level must rise,
• the quantity of output must rise, or
• the velocity of money must fall.
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International data on
inflation and money growth
Inflation rate 10,000
(percent,
logarithmic
scale)
1,000
Democratic Republic
of Congo
Nicaragua
Angola
Brazil
Georgia
100
Bulgaria
10
Germany
Kuwait
1
USA
Oman
0.1
0.1
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1
Japan
10
Canada
100
1,000
10,000
M oney supply growth (percent, logarithmic scale)
U.S. data on
inflation and money growth
Inflation
rate
(percent)
8
1910s
1970s
1940s
6
1980s
4
1950s
1990s
2
0
1890s
1930s
-2
-4
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1960s
1900s
1880s
1870s
1920s
0
KOF
2
4
6
8
10
12
Growth in money supp ly (p ercent )
Velocity and the Quantity Equation
• The Equilibrium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity
Theory of Money
• The velocity of money is relatively stable over time.
• When the SNB changes the quantity of money, it causes
proportionate changes in the nominal value of output (P  Y).
• Because money is neutral, money does not affect output.
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THE COSTS OF INFLATION
• A Fall in Purchasing Power?
• Inflation does not in itself reduce people’s real purchasing power.
• The costs of inflation
•
•
•
•
•
•
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Shoeleather costs
Menu costs
Relative price variability
Tax distortions
Confusion and inconvenience
Arbitrary redistribution of wealth
KOF
12
Business Cycles
Introduction to Economics
ETH Zürich, Prof. Dr. Jan-Egbert Sturm
Winter Term 2006/07
Short-Run Economic Fluctuations
• Economic activity fluctuates from year to year.
• In most years production of goods and services rises.
• On average over the past 50 years, production in the U.S. economy
has grown by about 3 percent per year.
• In some years normal growth does not occur, causing a recession.
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THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC
FLUCTUATIONS
• Economic fluctuations are irregular and unpredictable.
• Fluctuations in the economy are often called the business cycle.
• Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.
• As output falls, unemployment rises.
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Swiss GDP per capita (in 2002 US$, PPP)
Quelle: GGDC, eigene Berechnungen
35,000
EU12
SDEC8
Schweiz
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
0
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Swiss GDP and KOF-Barometer
Y-to-Y in %
BFS: SNA 09/2006,
Quartalisation: seco
5
3.0
2.4
4
KOF-Barometer
3
1.8
2
1.2
1
0.6
0
0.0
-1
-0.6
1999
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2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC
FLUCTUATIONS
• Most macroeconomic variables fluctuate together.
• Most macroeconomic variables that measure some type of income
or production fluctuate closely together.
• Although many macroeconomic variables fluctuate together, they
fluctuate by different amounts.
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Swiss exports:
Y-to-Y in %
16
BFS: SNA 09/2006,
Quartalisation: seco
Billion. Fr.
(Quarter)
KOF-Forecast 10/2006
64
12
60
8
56
4
52
0
48
7.0%
2.7%
3.3%
-4
44
-8
40
2003
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
THREE KEY FACTS ABOUT ECONOMIC
FLUCTUATIONS
• As output falls, unemployment rises.
• Changes in real GDP are inversely related to changes in the
unemployment rate.
• During times of recession, unemployment rises substantially.
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Employment vs. GDP (in Switzerland)
2.0
Employment
1.0
0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-1.0
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-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Real GDP growth (2-years average)
Quelle: BFS und KOF
EXPLAINING SHORT-RUN ECONOMIC
FLUCTUATIONS
• How the Short Run Differs from the Long Run
• Most economists believe that classical theory describes the world in
the long run but not in the short run.
• Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables
in the long run.
• The assumption of monetary neutrality is not appropriate when studying
year-to-year changes in the economy.
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The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
• Two variables are used to develop a model to analyze the
short-run fluctuations.
• The economy’s output of goods and services measured by real GDP.
• The overall price level measured by the CPI or the GDP deflator.
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The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
• The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• Economist use the model of aggregate demand and aggregate
supply to explain short-run fluctuations in economic activity around
its long-run trend.
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The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
• The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• The aggregate-demand curve shows the quantity of goods and
services that households, firms, and the government want to buy at
each price level.
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The Basic Model of Economic Fluctuations
• The Basic Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply
• The aggregate-supply curve shows the quantity of goods and
services that firms choose to produce and sell at each price level.
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Figure 2 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply...
Price
Level
Aggregate
supply
Equilibrium
price level
Aggregate
demand
0
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Equilibrium
output
Quantity of
Output
THE AGGREGATE-DEMAND CURVE
• The four components of GDP (Y) contribute to the aggregate
demand for goods and services.
Y = C + I + G + NX
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Figure 3 The Aggregate-Demand Curve...
Price
Level
P
P2
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
0
Aggregate
demand
Y
Y2
2. . . . increases the quantity of
goods and services demanded.
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Quantity of
Output
Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping
• The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth Effect
• The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect
• The Price Level and Net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect
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Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping
• The Price Level and Consumption: The Wealth Effect
• A decrease in the price level makes consumers feel more wealthy,
which in turn encourages them to spend more.
• This increase in consumer spending means larger quantities of
goods and services demanded.
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Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping
• The Price Level and Investment: The Interest Rate Effect
• A lower price level reduces the interest rate, which encourages
greater spending on investment goods.
• This increase in investment spending means a larger quantity of
goods and services demanded.
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Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping
• The Price Level and Net Exports: The Exchange-Rate Effect
• When a fall in the U.S. price level causes U.S. interest rates to fall, the
real exchange rate depreciates, which stimulates U.S. net exports.
• The increase in net export spending means a larger quantity of
goods and services demanded.
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Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might Shift
• The downward slope of the aggregate demand curve shows
that a fall in the price level raises the overall quantity of goods
and services demanded.
• Many other factors, however, affect the quantity of goods and
services demanded at any given price level.
• When one of these other factors changes, the aggregate
demand curve shifts.
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Why the Aggregate-Demand Curve Might Shift
• Shifts arising from
•
•
•
•
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Consumption
Investment
Government Purchases
Net Exports
KOF
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve
Price
Level
P1
D2
Aggregate
demand, D1
0
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Y1
Y2
Quantity of Output
THE AGGREGATE-SUPPLY CURVE
• In the long run, the aggregate-supply curve is vertical.
• In the short run, the aggregate-supply curve is upward sloping.
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THE AGGREGATE-SUPPLY CURVE
• The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
• In the long run, an economy’s production of goods and services
depends on its supplies of labor, capital, and natural resources and
on the available technology used to turn these factors of production
into goods and services.
• The price level does not affect these variables in the long run.
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Figure 4 The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
P
P2
2. . . . does not affect
the quantity of goods
and services supplied
in the long run.
1. A change
in the price
level . . .
0
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Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
THE AGGREGATE-SUPPLY CURVE
• The Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
• The long-run aggregate-supply curve is vertical at the natural rate of
output.
• This level of production is also referred to as potential output or fullemployment output.
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Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift
• Any change in the economy that alters the natural rate of
output shifts the long-run aggregate-supply curve.
• The shifts may be categorized according to the various factors
in the classical model that affect output.
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Why the Long-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift
• Shifts arising
•
•
•
•
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Labor
Capital
Natural Resources
Technological Knowledge
KOF
Figure 5 Long-Run Growth and Inflation
2. . . . and growth in the
money supply shifts
aggregate demand . . .
Long-run
aggregate
supply,
LRAS1980 LRAS1990 LRAS2000
Price
Level
1. In the long run,
technological
progress shifts
long-run aggregate
supply . . .
P2000
4. . . . and
ongoing inflation.
P1990
Aggregate
Demand, AD2000
P1980
AD1990
AD1980
0
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Y1980
Y1990
Quantity of
Output
3. . . . leading to growth
in output . . .
Y2000
A New Way to Depict Long-Run Growth and Inflation
• Short-run fluctuations in output and price level should be
viewed as deviations from the continuing long-run trends.
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Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
• In the short run, an increase in the overall level of prices in the
economy tends to raise the quantity of goods and services
supplied.
• A decrease in the level of prices tends to reduce the quantity of
goods and services supplied.
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Figure 6 The Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve
Price
Level
Short-run
aggregate
supply
P
P2
2. . . . reduces the quantity
of goods and services
supplied in the short run.
1. A decrease
in the price
level . . .
0
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Y2
Y
Quantity of
Output
Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
• The Misperceptions Theory
• The Sticky-Wage Theory
• The Sticky-Price Theory
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Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
• The Misperceptions Theory
• Changes in the overall price level temporarily mislead suppliers
about what is happening in the markets in which they sell their
output:
• A lower price level causes misperceptions about relative prices.
• These misperceptions induce suppliers to decrease the quantity of goods
and services supplied.
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Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run
• The Sticky-Wage Theory
• Nominal wages are slow to adjust, or are “sticky” in the short run:
• Wages do not adjust immediately to a fall in the price level.
• A lower price level makes employment and production less profitable.
• This induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods and services supplied.
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The Sticky-Price Theory
• Prices of some goods and services adjust sluggishly in response to
changing economic conditions:
• An unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with higher-thandesired prices.
• This depresses sales, which induces firms to reduce the quantity of goods
and services they produce.
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Why the Short-Run Aggregate-Supply Curve Might Shift
• Shifts arising
•
•
•
•
•
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Labor
Capital
Natural Resources
Technology
Expected Price Level
KOF
Why the Aggregate Supply Curve Might Shift
• An increase in the expected price level reduces the quantity of
goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate
supply curve to the left.
• A decrease in the expected price level raises the quantity of
goods and services supplied and shifts the short-run aggregate
supply curve to the right.
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Figure 7 The Long-Run Equilibrium
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run
aggregate
supply
A
Equilibrium
price
Aggregate
demand
0
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Natural rate
of output
Quantity of
Output
Figure 8 A Contraction in Aggregate Demand
2. . . . causes output to fall in the short run . . .
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
Short-run aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
3. . . . but over
time, the short-run
aggregate-supply
curve shifts . . .
A
P
B
P2
P3
1. A decrease in
aggregate demand . . .
C
Aggregate
demand, AD
AD2
0
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Y2
Y
4. . . . and output returns
to its natural rate.
Quantity of
Output
TWO CAUSES OF ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
• Shifts in Aggregate Demand
• In the short run, shifts in aggregate demand cause fluctuations in the
economy’s output of goods and services.
• In the long run, shifts in aggregate demand affect the overall price
level but do not affect output.
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TWO CAUSES OF ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
• An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply
• A decrease in one of the determinants of aggregate supply shifts the
curve to the left:
• Output falls below the natural rate of employment.
• Unemployment rises.
• The price level rises.
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Figure 10 An Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply
1. An adverse shift in the shortrun aggregate-supply curve . . .
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
AS2
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
B
P2
A
P
3. . . . and
the price
level to rise.
Aggregate demand
0
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Y2
2. . . . causes output to fall . . .
KOF
Y
Quantity of
Output
The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply
• Stagflation
• Adverse shifts in aggregate supply cause stagflation—a period of
recession and inflation.
• Output falls and prices rise.
• Policymakers who can influence aggregate demand cannot offset both of
these adverse effects simultaneously.
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The Effects of a Shift in Aggregate Supply
• Policy Responses to Recession
• Policymakers may respond to a recession in one of the following
ways:
• Do nothing and wait for prices and wages to adjust.
• Take action to increase aggregate demand by using monetary and fiscal
policy.
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Figure 11 Accommodating an Adverse Shift in Aggregate Supply
1. When short-run aggregate
supply falls . . .
Price
Level
Long-run
aggregate
supply
P3
C
P2
A
3. . . . which P
causes the
price level
to rise
further . . .
0
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4. . . . but keeps output
at its natural rate.
Natural rate
of output
Short-run
aggregate
supply, AS
AS2
2. . . . policymakers can
accommodate the shift
by expanding aggregate
demand . . .
AD2
Aggregate demand, AD
Quantity of
Output
Summary
• All societies experience short-run economic fluctuations
around long-run trends.
• These fluctuations are irregular and largely unpredictable.
• When recessions occur, real GDP and other measures of
income, spending, and production fall, and unemployment
rises.
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Summary
• Economists analyze short-run economic fluctuations using the
aggregate demand and aggregate supply model.
• According to the model of aggregate demand and aggregate
supply, the output of goods and services and the overall level
of prices adjust to balance aggregate demand and aggregate
supply.
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Summary
• The aggregate-demand curve slopes downward for three
reasons: a wealth effect, an interest rate effect, and an
exchange rate effect.
• Any event or policy that changes consumption, investment,
government purchases, or net exports at a given price level will
shift the aggregate-demand curve.
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Summary
• In the long run, the aggregate supply curve is vertical.
• The short-run, the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping.
• The are three theories explaining the upward slope of shortrun aggregate supply: the misperceptions theory, the stickywage theory, and the sticky-price theory.
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Summary
• Events that alter the economy’s ability to produce output will
shift the short-run aggregate-supply curve.
• Also, the position of the short-run aggregate-supply curve
depends on the expected price level.
• One possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in
aggregate demand.
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Summary
• A second possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in
aggregate supply.
• Stagflation is a period of falling output and rising prices.
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