Download Private Residential Market

REAL ESTATE DATATREND
Private Residential Market
Keener Sense of Real Estate
Transaction volumes surging as price slide continues
CCR prices outperforms market
For the whole of 2016, CCR has outperformed her peers, with
prices only falling 1.2%. The RCR and OCR saw prices decline
by 2.8% and 3.4% respectively. The outperformance of CCR
prices can be partially attributed to increasing interest in the
high-end market as developers start offering innovative
schemes such as Deferred Payment Schemes.
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
John Tay
Research Analyst
Wong Xian Yang
Head
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.orangetee.com
Follow us on
Resale volumes gain strength as prices fall
For 2016, a total of 16,378 private residential units were sold,
representing an increase of 16% over 2015’s tally of 14,117
units. A large part of the increase was driven by the
secondary market (resale & subsale), with volumes (8,406
units) rising 25.9% y-o-y from 2015. The jump in secondary
volumes can be attributed to better matching of buyer seller
expectations amidst falling prices and rents.
Unsold inventories at their historical lows
Developers sold 7,972 homes in 2016, which is a y-o-y
increase of 7.2%. The rise in demand for new homes coupled
with the tapering of the Government Land Sales programme
in recent years has led to unsold inventories reaching their
historical lows since available data from 3Q06. Demand in the
primary market is expected to persist, barring a sharp rise in
interest rates and unforeseen deterioration in the economy.
Tenant’s market expected to prevail in 2017
For 2016, overall non-landed rents fell 3.6%. OCR rents fell
the most, falling 6.7% as compared to CCR and RCR rents
which fell 3.3% and 1.9% respectively.
Exhibit 1: Key indicators
Current vacancy rates in the CCR and RCR are both at 9.6%,
while OCR vacancy rates are at 7.1%. We expect OCR vacancy
rates to rise given that 55% of incoming completions in 2017
will be in the OCR. Rents are expected to trend lower in 2017
as supply continues to overwhelm demand due to anaemic
economic growth and restrained inflow of foreigners.
Note: 4Q16 GDP figures are advance estimates.
Source: URA, MTI, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 1 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Market to stabilise in 2018
A 0.4% q-o-q price drop in 4Q16 extends the longest period of
falling private residential prices to 13 consecutive quarters.
Though prices remain on a down trend, the rate of decline is
flattening, on the back of rising volumes. For the whole of
2016, overall prices fell 3.1%, improving from declines in 2015
and 2014 of 3.7% and 4.0% respectively. At this pace, we
could see prices stabilise by 2018.
26 January 2017
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 2: Private Residential Property Price Index (RPPI)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 3: Non-landed RPPI, breakdown by region
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 4: Private residential units sold in primary and secondary market
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 2 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 5: Private Residential Property Sales(based on caveats), breakdown by
residential status
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 6: Private Residential Property Rental Index, breakdown by region
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 7: Occupancy rate, island wide (%)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 3 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 8: Expected completions
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 9: Expected completions, by market segments
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 10: Private residential unsold inventory
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
See terms of use on last page.
Page 4 | 5
| Singapore | Residential |
Exhibit 11: Private non-landed residential supply in the pipeline breakdown by planning areas as at 4Q16
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Exhibit 12: Occupancy rates, breakdown by region (%)
Source: URA, OrangeTee Research
Page 5 | 5
Terms of Use: The reproduction or distribution of this publication without the express consent of the author is prohibited. This publication
is provided for general information only and should not be treated as an invitation or recommendation to buy or sell any specific property
or as sales material. Users of this report should consider this publication as one of the many factors in making their investment decision
and should seek specific investment advice. OrangeTee.com Pte Ltd and the authors of this publication shall not accept and her eby
disclaim all responsibilities and liability to all persons and entities for consequences arising out of any use of this publication.