Download BaNGLaDESH FOOD SITUATION REPORT

BaNGLaDESH FOOD
SITUATION REPORT
July-September, 2015
www.mofood.gov.bd
FPMU
Volume-102
Overview
Domestic Production Outlook
Total foodgrain production in FY2014-15 was 36.06 mmt (aus 2.33 aman 13.19, boro 19.19 and wheat
1.35 mmt). For FY2015-16, DAE fixed the target for total foodgrain production of 36.42 mmt in which
contribution of aus, aman, boro and wheat would be 2.48 mmt, 13.56 mmt, 19.00 mmt and 1.40 mmt
respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area achieved for aus almost reached the
target, registering 1.03 million hectares out of the target of 1.08 million hectares. Aman plantation area also
marginally exceeded the target of 5.64 million hectares. Aman season has been experiencing favorable
weather condition and therefore the production target of 13.56 mmt may be achieved.
Foodgrain Import
The provisional target for foodgrain import in FY 2015-16 is 4.00 mmt. The actual import in FY 2014-15
was about 5.27 mmt of which 1.49 mmt was rice and 3.78 mmt wheat. There was no commercial public
import and food aid of rice during the year and private import constituted the entire part of total rice
import.
Domestic Foodgrain Procurement
The foodgrain procurement target in FY2015-16 was set at 1.70 mmt of which 1.50 mmt would be rice and
0.20 mmt wheat. Actual procurement during the year 2014-15 was about 1.68 mmt, of which rice was
1.47 mmt and wheat 0.21 mmt. Boro procurement target is about to be achieved because 1.07 mmt of boro
rice has already been procured.
Public Foodgrain Distribution
The budget for public food grain distribution in 2015-16 has been set at 2.78 mmt. The actual distribution
during the year 2014-15 was about 1.84 mmt, against the revised target of 2.42 mmt. The Government
plans to distribute higher amount of food grains in 2015-16 to ease hardship of poor people. Distribution
during the 1st quarter constituted 11.3% of total budgeted distribution during 2015-16.
Public Stock of Foodgrains
The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1st July/15 was 1.15 mmt and the ending stock of June/15 was
about 1.39 mmt. The stock of foodgrains steadily increased during the July-Sep/15 period. The closing
stock of about 1.67 mmt in Sep/15 seems to be adequate to meet the requirements for PFDS operations in
the coming months.
Domestic Market Prices
The wholesale rice and wheat prices declined during the 1st quarter from July to September of the
FY2015-16. The nominal prices of rice and wheat declined by 0.24% and 0.25% respectively during the
same period.
International Prices and Production Outlook
According to USDA forecast of June/15, Global rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 474.0 million
tons (milled basis), down1.7 million tons from last month’s forecast and 1 percent below the year earlier
record. Production forecasts were lowered for three major exporting countries—Thailand, India, and the
United States.
1
Domestic Foodgrain Availability
Domestic Foodgrain Production
Total foodgrain production in FY2014-15was 36.06 mmt (aus 2.33 aman 13.19, boro 19.19 and wheat
1.35 mmt). For FY2015-16, DAE fixed the target for total foodgrain production of 36.42 mmt in which
contribution of aus, aman, boro and wheat would be 2.48 mmt, 13.56 mmt, 19.00 mmt and 1.40 mmt
respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area achieved for aus almost reached the
target, registering 1.03 million hectares out of the target of 1.08 million hectares. Aman plantation area also
almost reached 5.67 million hectares against the target of 5.65 million hectares with production target of
313.56 mmt. Although aman plantation had some early setback due to flood in the northen districts, the
loss was recovered by quick raising of seedling through the initiatives of the DAE officials. Aman season
has so far experienced conducive weather conditions. It is therefore expected that aman production target
of 13.56 mmt for FY 2015-16 will be achieved.
Figure 1: Annual foodgrain production (mmt) and crop-wise contribution
2.48
13.56
1.40
Boro
Aman
Aus
Wheat
2.33
13.19
19.00
2015/16 (Target)
1.35
Boro
Aman
Aus
Wheat
19.19
2014/15 (Actual)
Foodgrain Import
The provisional target for foodgrain import in FY 2015-16 was set at 4.0 mmt. The actual import in FY
2014-15 was about 5.27 mmt of which 1.49 mmt was rice and 3.78 mmt wheat. There was no commercial
public import of rice and food aid during the year and private import constituted the entire part of total rice
import. However, public commercial wheat import constituted a small part of total wheat import during the
year. As usual, wheat import by private sector constituted the major part of total foodgrain import. During
the 1st quarter (July-September/15) of the current fiscal year, 0.81mmt of food grains were imported.
Table 1: Foodgrain imports
(000 metric tons)
2
Domestic Foodgrain Procurement
The foodgrain procurement target in FY2015-16 was set at 1.70 mmt of which 1.50 mmt would be rice and
0.20 mmt wheat. Actual procurement during the year 2014-15 was about 1.68 mmt, of which rice was
1.47 mmt and wheat 0.21 mmt. The current boro (in trems of rice) procurement target has been set at 1.10
mmt at the rate of Tk 22/kg for paddy, Tk 31/kg for white rice and Tk 32/ kg for parboiled rice. Boro
procurement started from 1st April/15 and continued up to 7th October, 2015. Boro procurement target is
about to be achieved, because 1.07 mmt of boro rice has been procured. Aman procurement target and
price will be fixed soon.
Public Food grain Distribution
The budget for public food grain distribution in 2015-16 has been set at 2.78 mmt. The actual distribution
during the year 2014-15 was about 1.84 mmt, against the revised target of 2.42 mmt. Distribution
through FFW was the highest, followed by OMS, EP, VGD, VGF and TR. During the 1st quarter (JulySeptember/15) of the current fiscal year, 0.31mmt of foodgrains were distributed in which distribution
through VGF was the highest, followed by VGD and EP. Distribution during the 1st quarter constituted
11.3% of total budgeted distribution during 2015-16.
Table-2 Channel-wise distribution of food grains
(000 mt)
Public Stock of Foodgrains
The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1st July/15 was 1.15 mmt and the ending stock of June/15 was
about 1.39 mmt. The stock of foodgrains steadily increased during the July-Sep/15 period. The closing
stock of about 1.67 mmt in Sep/15 seems to be adequate to meet the requirements for PFDS operations in
the coming months, assuming that stock replenishments will continue to be normal.
Table 3: Commodity-wise closing public stock in FY 2014-15 and 2015-16
(000 mt)
3
Market Price Review
Rice and Wheat Wholesale Prices
The wholesale rice and wheat prices declined during the
1st quarter from July to September in FY2015-16 (Fig.
2). The nominal prices of rice and wheat declined by
0.24% and 0.25% respectively during the same period.
The corresponding real prices dropped by 2.78% and
2.79%. The nominal rice and wheat prices rose by 2.0%
and 0.49% respectively during the same period a year
earlier. During FY2014-15, nominal rice and wheat
prices declined by 20.31% and 11.57%, respectively.
The real rice prices also decreased by 24.47% and
16.18% during the same period (Table 4).
Fig.2 Na tiona l wholesa le price 2014-15
3400
Taka / quintal
3200
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rice 2015
Wheat 2015
Rice 2014
Wheat 2014
Table 4: Change of rice and wheat prices
Period
Jul'15 to Sep'15
Jul'14 to Sep'14
Oct'14 to Sep'15
Oct'13 to Sep'14
Rice
-0.24%
2.00%
-20.31%
3.91%
Nominal price
Wheat
-0.25%
0.49%
-11.57%
-2.95%
Real price
Rice
-2.78%
-0.70%
-24.47%
-1.85%
Rice and Wheat flour Retail Prices
The retail prices of rice remained relatively stable and
atta prices showed slightly downward trend during the
1st quarter of the current fiscal year 2015-16 (Fig.3). On
average prices of rice of this quarter was stable at
27.13Tk/kg, atta prices dropped by 0.20Tk/kg during
the period. Between January to September/15 rice prices
fluctuated and declined thereafter. Atta prices showed
downward trend and then remained relatively stable
thereafter and started rising from November/14.
Wheat
-2.79%
-2.17%
-16.18%
-8.33%
Fig.3 Na tiona l reta il price: 2014-15
35
Taka / kg
33
31
29
27
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rice 2015
Atta 2015
Rice 2014
Atta 2014
Difference between Retail and Wholesale Prices of Rice and Wheat Flour
Between October/14 and September/15, retail and wholesale prices of rice and atta in Dhaka city markets
moved almost in the same directions, parallel to each other, with a percentage margin ranging from 6.2%
to 14.8% for rice and 17.6% to 28.1 % for atta (Figures 4 and 5). The margins of rice fluctuated with a
sharp increase in April/15 and narrowing in July/15, while for atta the margin fluctuated with a sharp
increase in July/15, decrease thereafter during the period under review.
Fig.4 Margins, reta il and wholesa le prices
of rice in Dha ka, 2015-16
Fig. 5 Margins, reta il a nd wholesa le prices
of Atta in Dhaka, 2015-16
40
35
30
26.8
25
22.2
20
15.7
12.0 13.1
15
10
32.432.5 29.6
30
Taka/%
Taka/%
35
20.1
13.6 14.8
13.2 11.6
6.2 7.4
23.9
25
20 17.6
28.1
25.8
23.4
21.8 22.7
21.8
20.0
15
10
5
5
0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Percentage margin
Wholesale price
Retail price
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Percentage margin
Wholesale price
Retail price
4
Monitoring and Outlook for Wholesale Prices of Foodgrains
Domestic Rice Price Forecast
The rice prices during May-September/15 period followed
somewhat different pattern from what was observed in the
last four year. Prices of current year remained more or less
stable and they were much lower compared to earlier
years. The absolute difference between current year’s
prices and past years’ prices increased from 14% in
May/15 to 19% in September/15. Estimates from price
monitoring model, as shown in Figure 6, forecasts a band
within which the price of rice is expected to remain during
October/15 to December/15, if past trends are confirmed.
Based on the estimates, it is noted that in December/15,
there is approximately 70% chance that the coarse rice price will remain between Tk. 23.77/kg and Tk.
26.81/kg.
Domestic Wheat Price Forecast
During the May-September/15 period, wheat prices
followed somewhat similar pattern from what was
observed over the last four years, except in September
when prices fell instead of rising in the normal year. The
market prices remained much lower than normal prices
in all the months during this period and their absolute
differences rose from 16% in May to 21% in September.
The model estimates showed that wheat price is expected
to remain between Tk. 19.45/kg and Tk. 21.07/kg in
October/15 and Tk. 19.43/kg and Tk. 21.92/kg in
December/15 (Fig. 7).
International Price and Production
Oct'13
Nov'13
Dec'13
Jan'14
Feb'14
Mar'14
Apr'14
May'14
Jun'14
Jul'14
Aug'14
Sep14
Oct'14
Nov14
Dec'14
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
Apr'15
May'15
Jun'15
Jul'15
Aug'15
Sep15
USD/MT
Global Rice Production and Price
According to USDA forecast of October/15, Global
Fig 8 Interna tiona l rice price
rice production for 2015/16 is projected at 474.0
530
million tons (milled basis), down1.7 million tons from
last month’s forecast and 1 percent below the previous
430
year record. Production forecasts were lowered for
330
three major exporting countries—Thailand, India, and
the United States. The overall cereal production
230
outlook in 2015 remains positive, mostly on account
of a record output forecast in China. However, recent
130
dry weather has dampened prospects in India and
several countries of the Far East sub region.
30
Prices for high and medium grades of Thailand’s
regular-milled white rice increased 2-4 percent in early
September, largely due to recently announced sales to
LC Settled
Thai 5% paraboiled
the Philippines and Indonesia. Price quotes from
Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA
Vietnam have increased over the past month as well,
mostly a response to the large Government-toGovernment purchase by Indonesia. U.S. prices for long-grain milled-rice has increased over the past
month as well, largely a response to reduced expectations of the 2015/16 U.S. crop size. The LC settled
price fluctuated with a downward trend during October/13 to September/15, while price of Thai 5% had a
persistent downward trend during the same period (Figure 8).
5
Global Wheat Production and Price
Oct'13
Nov'13
Dec'13
Jan'14
Feb'14
Mar'14
Apr'14
May'14
Jun'14
Jul'14
Aug'14
Sep'14
Oct'14
Nov14
Dec'14
Jan'15
Feb'15
Mar'15
Apr'15
May'15
Jun'15
Jul'15
Aug'15
Sep'15
USD/MT
Global wheat production for 2015/16 is increased by 3.5
Fig 9 International wheat price
million tons this month to reach 676.9 million, pushing the
500
record further. Production is projected higher in the EU,
450
Australia, Canada, Algeria, and Ukraine, but lower in
400
Argentina and Ethiopia. Partly offsetting the global
350
production increase is a decline of wheat production in the
300
U.S, down 2.3 million tons to 55.8 million, with global
250
wheat output 1.2-million-ton higher and 7.3 million tons
200
150
ahead of last year’s record.
100
Reduced wheat production is largely offset by declines in
feed and residual and export utilization and, accordingly, no
change in the season-average price is made this month. Both
LC Settled
Wheat (soft red)
LC settled price and US Soft Red Winter (SRW) prices of
Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA
wheat fluctuated during the period from October/13 to
September/15, but the SRW price remained persistently lower than the LC settled price (Figure 9).
Food Consumption and Nutrition
Nutrient density of the desirable diet
Research on ‘Desirable Dietary Pattern’ conducted by BIRDEM in collaboration with FPMU and
NFPCSP- FAO proposed quantities of food for desirable diets in Bangladesh based on normative guidance
as per FAO and WHO recommendations. The nutrient density of the desirable diet has also been
calculated as a measure of nutrients provided per 100 kilocalories of food. The energy (kcal/100g) and
nutrient (mg or mcg/100Kcal) density of the desirable diet in Bangladesh is shown in Table 5. The nutrient
density has been calculated `for key micronutrients, notably calcium, iron, vitamin A and folic acid.
Cereals, oils and sugar provide mostly energy, but trace micronutrients. On the other hand, vegetables,
fruits and animal source foods provide adequate micronutrients as well as some energy and protein. The
comparative energy and nutrient density of the desirable and actually consumed diet shows that the
desirable diet is less energy dense but more nutrients dense. In the actually consumed diet, the intake of
cereals which are energy dense is much higher than that in the desirable diet. The intake of non-cereal
nutrient dense foods is also much lower in the actually consumed diet.
Table: 5 Energy and nutrient density of actual desirable diets of Bangladesh.
Food
Desirable
Intake(g)
Rice
350
Energ
y
densit
y
kcal/1
00g
351
2
3
0.2
0
3
Wheat &
other cereal
50
290
3
8
1.0
0
7
Pulses
50
336
8
22
1.8
1
29
Fish
60
121
50
216
1.1
17
10
Poultry &
meat
40
131
16
9
1.1
13
5
Egg
30
158
8
38
1.0
135
32
Fruit
100
67
1
24
0.7
136
54
Vegetables
300
72
15
765
9.8
1550
415
Fat/oil
30
901
0
0
0.0
0.0
0
Protein
(g/100kcal)
Calcium
(mg/100
kcal)
Nutrient Density
Iron
Vit-A
(RAE)
(mg/100kca
(mcg/
l)
100kcal)
Folic Acid
(mcg/100
kcal)
Source: NFP-PoA CIP Monitoring Report-2015 and ‘Desirable dietary pattern for Bangladesh’, BIRDEM-2013.
Given the current dietary trends, the nutrient density approach can be a valuable tool for nutrition
education and dietary guidance. There is need to consider the use of dietary guidelines as a tool in food,
agriculture and health planning.
6