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Institute of Hydrology Slovak Academy of Sciences Assessment of the soil water storage with regard to prognosis of the climate change at lowlands Katarína Stehlová 6th ALPS-ADRIA SCIENTIFIC WORKSHOP 30 April - 5 May, 2007 Obervellach, Austria Climate change • influence of hydrological cycle • increase of intense precipitation • increase of thunderstorms and local floods •decrease of water resources •increase of temperature •increase of drought and wild fire events... Map of the locality of interest Soil profile in locality Bodiky • 0-120 cm is loamy or sandy loam, • 120-150 cm is sandy layer, • under 150 is cm gravel. Mathematical model GLOBAL The model was created by Dr. Juraj Majercak and Dr. Viliam Novak from Institute of Hydrology, Slovakia, Bratislava. This model belongs to the group of one-dimensional vertical models and on basic Richards’s equation simulates the move of water in the system soil – vegetation – atmosphere in isothermal condition with especial regard on the root zone. Initial moisture profile: Hydro-physical parameters of the soil profile divided into five layers at locality Bodiky, where s is saturated moisture, pk is field water capacity, r is residual moisture, and n are Genuchten’s parameters and C is saturated hydraulic conductivity Soil layer cm 0–35 36–90 91–100 101–150 0–150 s cm .cm 0,5474 0,5491 0,5425 0,5231 0,5396 3 -3 pk 3 -3 [cm .cm ] 0,3800 0,3500 0,3300 0,3700 0,3623 r cm .cm 0,0684 0,0552 0,0265 0,0484 0,0541 3 -3 cm 0,04407 0,04920 0,09983 0,02314 0,04269 -1 n - 1,29706 1,35140 1,17602 1,38266 1,33745 C cm.d-1 193,27 38,90 39,73 14,44 66,82 Lower boundary condition: time series of values of pressure head in the depth of 150 cm under soil surface. Upper boundary condition: daily values of crop parameters (leaf area index [m2.m-2], roughness of evaporating surface [m], albedo of surface [cm], root depth [cm] and relative mean water content [%]), climatic characteristics measured on the meteorological gauge station of Slovak Hydro-Meteorological Institute in Gabcikovo (daily precipitation total [mm.d-1], mean temperature [°C], sunshine duration [hours], vapor pressure [hPa] and mean wind velocity [m.s-1]). Climate characteristics for time horizon 2010 were modified by climate scenarios: CCCM2000 (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, British Columbia) GISS98 (Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, U.S.A) 30.00 Reference period 1955-84 CCCM 2010 GISS 2010 25.00 Temperature [°C] 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 December November October September August July June May April March February -5.00 January 0.00 -10.00 Mean long-term temperature calculated for reference period 1955-84 and for horizon 2010 (CCCM2000, GISS98) 80.00 Reference period 1955-84 CCCM 2010 GISS 2010 Precipitation totals [mm] 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 December November October September August July June May April March February January 0.00 Mean long-term precipitation totals calculated for reference period 1955-84 and for horizon 2010 (CCCM2000, GISS98) Results 30-years average monthly soil water storage [mm] in the reference period 1955-84 (RP), average monthly soil water storage [mm] in according to climate scenarios CCCM2000 (C) and GISS98 (G) for time horizon 2010 Layer Month 0-30 cm 31-60 cm 61-90 91-150 cm 0-150 cm RP C G RP C G RP C G RP C G RP C G I 84.20 87.43 85.33 72.44 75.52 74.73 53.21 57.73 54.70 75.75 80.62 76.78 285.60 301.30 291.54 II 84.03 86.96 86.49 74.48 77.73 77.79 57.44 61.09 58.97 79.76 86.32 81.29 295.71 312.10 304.54 III 83.33 85.48 85.73 76.49 79.14 79.33 61.36 64.83 63.13 86.97 94.45 89.05 308.14 323.89 317.24 IV 80.94 82.95 83.84 72.23 75.19 76.61 60.25 63.09 61.03 90.37 97.20 92.42 303.79 318.42 313.91 V 77.19 79.30 80.31 65.48 69.03 70.15 54.47 57.38 56.55 90.25 96.29 91.86 287.39 301.99 298.88 VI 73.15 73.68 76.36 55.38 58.15 59.59 46.69 49.18 48.30 88.26 92.93 89.48 263.48 273.94 273.73 VII 74.12 72.10 76.78 52.10 52.85 56.25 40.09 41.95 41.64 81.93 85.30 82.66 248.24 252.20 257.34 VIII 72.67 67.48 74.38 49.21 47.95 52.76 36.13 37.23 38.04 74.14 76.53 74.11 232.15 229.19 239.28 IX 69.44 65.67 73.22 46.87 43.74 49.80 34.02 34.55 35.15 69.67 71.66 69.29 220.00 215.61 227.46 X 72.90 74.62 75.82 46.30 45.28 50.34 33.71 33.75 34.55 67.57 68.97 67.18 220.48 222.62 227.88 XI 80.93 84.85 82.63 55.79 58.57 59.60 35.58 36.97 36.90 66.90 68.11 66.66 239.20 248.50 245.79 XII 82.59 86.14 84.20 65.72 69.40 69.27 42.49 46.49 44.34 67.95 70.19 68.16 258.51 271.97 265.72 year 77.96 78.89 80.43 61.04 62.71 64.68 46.29 48.69 47.77 78.29 82.38 79.08 263.56 272.64 271.94 Month I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII year 0-30 cm C G 0.32 0.11 0.29 0.25 0.22 0.24 0.20 0.29 0.21 0.31 0.05 0.32 -0.20 0.27 -0.52 0.17 -0.38 0.38 0.17 0.29 0.39 0.17 0.36 0.16 0.09 0.25 31-60 cm C G 0.31 0.23 0.32 0.33 0.26 0.28 0.30 0.44 0.35 0.47 0.28 0.42 0.07 0.41 -0.13 0.36 -0.31 0.29 -0.10 0.40 0.28 0.38 0.37 0.35 0.17 0.36 Layer 61-90 C G 0.45 0.15 0.36 0.15 0.35 0.18 0.28 0.08 0.29 0.21 0.25 0.16 0.19 0.16 0.11 0.19 0.05 0.11 0.00 0.08 0.14 0.13 0.40 0.19 0.24 0.15 Month Percentage differences of long-term averages of soil water storage [cm] modeled according to climate scenarios CCCM2000, GISS98 for time horizon 2010 and values modeled for reference period (1955-84) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII year 91-150 cm C G 0.49 0.10 0.66 0.15 0.75 0.21 0.68 0.20 0.60 0.16 0.47 0.12 0.34 0.07 0.24 0.00 0.20 -0.04 0.14 -0.04 0.12 -0.02 0.22 0.02 0.41 0.08 0-30 cm C G 4 3 3 2 3 1 -3 -7 -5 2 5 4 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 4 2 5 4 2 2 3 Differences of long-term averages of soil water storage [cm] modeled according to climate scenarios CCCM2000, GISS98 for time horizon 2010 and values modeled for reference period (1955-84) 0-150 cm C G 1.57 0.59 1.64 0.88 1.57 0.91 1.46 1.01 1.46 1.15 1.05 1.02 0.40 0.91 -0.30 0.71 -0.44 0.75 0.21 0.74 0.93 0.66 1.35 0.72 0.91 0.84 31-60 cm C G 4 4 3 4 5 5 1 -3 -7 -2 5 6 3 Layer 61-90 C 3 4 4 6 7 8 8 7 6 9 7 5 6 G 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 0 4 9 5 3 3 3 1 4 3 4 5 3 2 4 4 3 91-150 cm C G 6 1 8 2 9 2 8 2 7 2 5 1 4 1 3 0 3 -1 2 -1 2 0 3 0 5 1 0-150 cm C G 5 6 5 5 5 4 2 -1 -2 1 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 CCCM (1996-2025) Linear (CCCM (1996-2025)) 0 Legend: GISS (1996-2025) Linear (GISS (1996-2025)) 2024 2022 March, layer 0-30 cm 2020 2024 2022 2020 140 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 140 2018 40 2016 60 2014 year 2012 80 2008 year 2010 100 2008 0 2006 20 2006 40 2004 60 2004 80 2002 February, layer 0-30 cm 2002 120 2000 0 2000 20 1998 40 1998 60 1996 80 soil water storage [mm] 100 1996 100 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 January, layer 0-30 cm 1998 120 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 120 1996 2024 2022 2020 140 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 140 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 140 120 April, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 0 year 120 May, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 0 140 year 120 June, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 20 0 year year Mean monthly values of soil water storage in January to June for horizon 2010 (scenarios CCCM2000 and GISS98), in layer 0-30 cm CCCM (1996-2025) Linear (CCCM (1996-2025)) year Legend: GISS (1996-2025) Linear (GISS (1996-2025)) 2024 0 2022 20 140 2020 40 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 140 2018 60 140 2016 80 2014 year 2012 100 2008 year 2010 September, layer 0-30 cm 2008 0 2006 20 2006 40 2004 60 2004 80 2002 August, layer 0-30 cm 2002 120 2000 0 2000 20 1998 40 1998 60 1996 80 soil water storage [mm] 100 1996 100 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 July, layer 0-30 cm 1998 120 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 120 1996 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 140 2018 140 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 140 120 October, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 0 year 120 November, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 0 year 120 December, layer 0-30 cm 100 80 60 40 20 0 year Mean monthly values of soil water storage in July to December for horizon 2010 (scenarios CCCM2000 and GISS98), in layer 0-30 cm CCCM (1996-2025) Linear (CCCM (1996-2025)) year Legend: GISS (1996-2025) Linear (GISS (1996-2025)) 2024 2022 600 2024 2022 2020 600 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 February, layer 0-150 cm 2020 0 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 600 2018 100 2016 200 2014 year 2012 300 2004 year 2010 400 2008 March, layer 0-150 cm 2006 0 2004 100 2002 200 2002 300 2000 400 2000 0 1998 100 1998 200 1996 300 soil water storage [mm] 400 1996 500 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 January, layer 0-150 cm 1998 500 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 500 1996 2024 2022 2020 600 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 600 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 600 500 April, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year 500 May, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year 500 June, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year Mean monthly values of soil water storage in January to June for horizon 2010 (scenarios CCCM2000 and GISS98), in layer 0-150 cm CCCM (1996-2025) Linear (CCCM (1996-2025)) year Legend: GISS (1996-2025) Linear (GISS (1996-2025)) 2024 2022 600 2020 0 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 600 2018 100 600 2016 200 2014 year 2012 300 2006 year 2010 400 2008 September, layer 0-150 cm 2006 0 2004 100 2004 200 2002 300 2002 400 2000 August, layer 0-150 cm 2000 0 1998 100 1998 200 1996 300 soil water storage [mm] 400 1996 500 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 July, layer 0-150 cm 1998 500 soil water storage [mm] 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 500 1996 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 600 2018 600 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 soil water storage [mm] 600 500 October, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year 500 November, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year 500 December, layer 0-150 cm 400 300 200 100 0 year Mean monthly values of soil water storage in July to December for horizon 2010 (scenarios CCCM2000 and GISS98), in layer 0-150 cm Conclusion The amounts of soil water content available for vegetation is one of the most necessary conditions for good vegetation grow. For the average monthly climatic values in accordance with scenario CCCM gave the model GLOBAL nearly in all months of counted time horizon 2010 lower values of soil water storage then for values adapted by scenario GISS. The decrease of soil water storage is prognosticated especially in the end of vegetation period. The mean monthly values (CCCM) in layers 0-30 cm, 31-60 cm and in whole soil profile 0-150 cm dropped about 1-7 % in comparison to reference period values. The values of soil water storage calculated by model GLOBAL with climatic values in accordance with scenario GISS decreased only about 1 % in comparison to reference period values. Since the upper layer 0-30 cm is most influenced by meteorological components, the soil water storage decrease in this layer is the most noticeable. Thank you for your attention...