Download Food Supply and Demand in Asia Challenges and Opportunities for

Food Supply and Demand in Asia:
Challenges and Opportunities for Policy and Technology Interventions
Mark W. Rosegrant
Director
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS 2014)
Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel
Singapore
August 21-22, 2014
Outline
 Drivers of agricultural growth and food security
 Scenario modeling methodology
 Baseline projections of supply, demand and food
security
 Alternative technology scenarios
 Conclusions and policy implications
Drivers of Agricultural Growth and
Food Security
Demand and Supply Drivers
 Demand drivers
– Population growth: 9 billion
people in 2050
– Urbanization
- World
 2008 = 50% urban;
 2050 = 78%;
- Asia:
 2008 = 44%
 2050 = 64%
– Income growth
– Biofuels and bioenergy
– GHG mitigation and carbon
sequestration
 Supply drivers
– Water and land scarcity
– Climate change
– Investment in
agricultural research
– Science and technology
policy
Scenario Modeling Methodology
The IMPACT3 Modeling Suite
Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and partial
equilibrium economic models
IMPACT Global
Hydrological Model
Climate Forcing
Crop Management
DSSAT Crop
Models
•
Effective P
Potential ET
IRW
Pop & GDP growth
Area & yield growth
IMPACT
•
•
IMPACT Water
Simulation Model
•
•
Irrigation Water Demand &
Supply
WATER STRESS
Water Projections
Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock and irrigation users
Water supply reliability
•
Food Projections
Crop area /
livestock numbers,
yields, and
production
Agricultural
commodity demand
Agricultural
commodity trade
and prices
Mal-nourishment
DSSAT Crop Models
 Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-by-day,
in response to
• Temperature
• Precipitation
• Soil characteristics
• Applied nitrogen
• CO2 fertilization
 DSSAT-based simulations at crop-specific locations (using
local climate, soil and topographical attributes)
Baseline Projections of Supply,
Demand and Food Security
Annual Average Growth of GDP per capita and Population
between 2010 and 2050 – Baseline Projections
6
5
4
Population
3
2
2.5
1
0
Percent Growth Rate per Year
Percent Growth Rate per Year
Per Capita GDP
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
World Crop Yields
Annual Average Growth Rate, Historical and Projected
1970-1990 (FAO)
1990-2010 (FAO)
2010-2050 (IMPACT Baseline)
Percent Growth Rater per Year
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Maize
Rice
Soybeans
Wheat
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Cereal Yield Growth
Projected Baseline Annual Average Growth Rate
Percent Growth Rater per Year
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
China
India
Central Asia
South East Asia Other East Asia
Other South
Asia
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Total Cereal Crop Area
Baseline Projections
2010
2050
120
Million Hectares
100
80
60
40
20
0
China
India
Central Asia
South East Asia Other East Asia
Other South
Asia
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Per Capita Demand - Baseline Projections
Cereal for Food
2050
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Meat
2010
2050
120
100
China
India
Central
Asia
South East Other East
Other
Asia
Asia
South Asia
Kg per Capita
Kg per Capita
2010
80
60
40
20
0
China
India
Central Asia South East Other East Other South
Asia
Asia
Asia
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Projected Net Trade in Cereals
Baseline Projections
China
India
Central Asia
South East Asia Other East Asia Other South Asia
40
Million Metric Tons
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
2010
2050
-120
-140
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Change (%) in World Prices, 2010-2050,
Baseline Projections
Cereals
60
Meat
40
30
20
60
10
50
0
Rice
Wheat
Maize
Other Grains Soybeans
Sorghum
Percent Change
Percent Change
50
40
30
20
10
0
Beef
Pork
Lamb
Poultry
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Projected Net Trade in Meat
Baseline Projections
China
India
Central Asia
South East Asia Other East Asia Other South Asia
5
Million Metric Tons
0
-5
-10
2010
2050
-15
-20
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Asia: Population at the Risk of Hunger
Baseline Projections
2010
2050
250
Millions
200
150
100
50
0
China
India
Central Asia
South East Asia Other East Asia
Other South
Asia
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations
Alternative Food and Water Scenarios
to 2050—Specific Technology Scenarios
Potential Impact of Agricultural Technology
Adoption on Global Food Security
 Impacts of agricultural
technologies on farm
productivity, prices,
hunger, and trade flows
were site-specifically
estimated using DSSAT
biophysical model linked
with IMPACT global partial
equilibrium agriculture
sector model.
Rosegrant, M.W., J. Koo, N. Cenacchi,
C. Ringler, R. Robertson, M. Fisher, C.
Cox, K. Garrett, N.D. Perez, and P.
Sabbagh. 2014. Food security in a
world of natural resource scarcity:
The role of agricultural technologies.
IFPRI, Washington, D.C.
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-world-natural-resource-scarcity
Technology Assessment Scope
 Global & Regional
 Eleven technologies
 Three Crops
• Wheat
• Rice
• Maize
 No-Tillage
 Integrated Soil Fertility
Management
 Organic Agriculture
 Precision Agriculture
 Crop Protection
 Drip Irrigation
 Sprinkler Irrigation
 Water Harvesting
 Drought Tolerance
 Heat Tolerance
 Nitrogen Use Efficiency
Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial
Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT)
DSSAT
Technology strategy
(combination of
different practices)
Corresponding
geographically
differentiated yield
effects
IMPACT
Food demand
and supply
Effects on
world food
prices and
trade
Food security
and
malnutrition
Global DSSAT Results
Yield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Regional DSSAT Results, Maize:
NUE, ISFM, and No-till, 2050 vs. Baseline
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Regional DSSAT results, Maize:
Drought Tolerance, Heat Tolerance and Crop Protection (disease), 2050, compared to baseline
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Environmental Impacts:
Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat
(Compared to conventional furrow irrigation)
Prominent impacts of
28% less water applied
 22% more water productivity
Improved Irrigation Technologies
 Increased water savings (less water used)
 Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
IMPACT Economic Results
Adoption Pathway Ceilings (%)
Technology
Ceiling
Drought tolerance
80
Heat tolerance
75
Nitrogen-use efficiency
75
No-till
70
Integrated soil fertility management
40
Water harvesting
40
Drip irrigation
40
Sprinkler irrigation
40
Precision agriculture
60
Crop protection-diseases
50
Crop protection-weeds
50
Crop protection-insects
50
Percent Change in Total Production, Developing
Countries: Maize, Rice, Wheat, 2050 with Technology vs.
2050 Baseline (IMPACT)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Price Effects of Technologies, 2050, compared
to Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies
0.0
-10.0
Maize
Rice
Wheat
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
-60.0
No-Till
Heat Tolerance
Integrated Soil Fertility Mgt
Water Harvesting
Irrigation - Drip
Drought tolerance
Nitrogen Use Efficiency
Precision Agriculture
Irrigation - sprinkler
Crop Protection
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Food Security Effects of Technology
relative to 2050 Baseline
Malnourished Children
Pop. at-risk-of-hunger
0.0
-5.0
-10.0
-15.0
-20.0
-25.0
-30.0
-35.0
-40.0
No till
Drought tolerance
Heat tolerance
Nitrogen use efficiency
Integrated soil fertility mgt
Precision agriculture
Water harvesting
Sprinkler irrigation
Drip irrigation
Crop Protection - insects
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Percent Change in Harvested Area, 2050, Compared to
Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies
0.0
Maize
Rice
Wheat
-10.0
Percentage
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
-60.0
No-Till
Nitrogen Use Efficiency
Water Harvesting
Crop Protection
Drought tolerance
Integrated Soil Fertility Mgt
Irrigation - sprinkler
Heat Tolerance
Precision Agriculture
Irrigation - Drip
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Conclusions and Policy Implications
Building Sustainable Productivity Growth and
Resilient Agricultural and Food Systems
1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for
productivity growth
2. Promote complementary policies and
investments
3. Reform economic policies
1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural
R&D for smallholder productivity
Invest in technologies for
Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)
 Crop and livestock breeding
• High-yielding varieties
• Biotic- and abiotic-stress resistant
varieties
 Modernize breeding programs in

developing countries through
provision of genomics, high
throughput gene-sequencing, bioinformatics and computer
GMOs where genetic variation does
not exist in the crop
• Nitrogen use efficiency
• Drought, heat and salinity tolerance
• Insect and disease resistance
Source: ASTI 2012
2. Promote Complementary Policies and
Investments
 Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation
 Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets e.g. fruits,
vegetables, and milk
 Regulatory reform: Reduce hurdles to approval and release of new
cultivars and technologies
• Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists, excessive
testing and certification requirements, foreign investment barriers, ad
hoc biosafety decision-making)
 Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil
fertility management, integrated pest management, precision
agriculture
3. Reform Economic Policies
 Support open trading regimes to share climate risk
 Use market-based approaches to manage water and
environmental services combined with secure
property rights
 Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions
and encourage water use beyond economically
appropriate levels
• Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies
• Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income