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"South-Eastern European Security - Outlook for 2007 and beyond" Robert C Austin University of Toronto Main Trends • Optimistic scenarios can finally prevail. • Improved investment climate – race for FDI may be on. • Massive infrastructure improvements • Improved personal security. • Sustained enthusiasm for Euro-Atlantic integration. • Improved regional cooperation and internal political stability. Problems • • • • • • Macedonia still a bi-national state. Albania’s political polarization. Multi-ethnicity still weak in Bosnia. Serbia’s destiny unclear. Kosovo factor. Painfully slow nation/state building process. Kosovo and Serbia • Serbia remains the key to security and stability in the region. • Independence for Kosovo will improve, over the long run, the security situation. • The process will be messy but further delays invite problems. • Independence is the cleanest and the only way to normalize political life. Kosovo • NATO remains the most credible player there. • Fragile economy. • EU not necessarily a welcome replacement to the UN. • Low confidence in most international institutions. • Elite not prepared for the “day after.” • Haradinaj factor. • Avoiding the Albanian scenario. Way Ahead • More needs to be done for Serbia. • Sustained European perspective through NATO and the EU. • Sustained U.S. engagement in Kosovo. • Gradual normalization of political life will improve security and stability. • Elite replacement remains critical. • Kosovo leadership needs to develop a vision.