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SRP 5 ACTIVITY CLUSTER 1 Decision Analysis — identifying high value information needs for revitalizing agriculture, supporting ecosystems and improving livelihoods Tagline (if available) Connecting research to development decisions Problem to be addressed: (100 words) Development decisions related to agricultural intensification, ecosystem management and improving livelihoods are most often sub-optimal due to lack of sufficient relevant information on areas of large uncertainty. There is insufficient clarity on what are the key uncertainties in important development decisions (where the cost of being wrong is high), and as a result research, measurements and information products are often not useful. A systematic approach to analyzing development decisions, using decision sciences, would help to (i) pinpoint high value information needs, (ii) increase the efficiency of research and (iii) provide a framework to better connect research, measurements and information systems to development outcomes. Development objective (SLO link) Improved understanding of development decision processes and more systematic identification of high value information needs will result in more rapid and more efficient generation of information products and accelerated learning on effective options for sustainable intensification of agriculture in developing countries (food security, nutrition, health, and poverty, NRM). Intermediate Development objective (long). (100 words) Governments, research and development organizations increasingly design and monitor the effectiveness of intervention strategies for sustainable agro-ecosystem management based on systematic and quantitative analysis of key decisions. CGIAR research and information products target high value information needs for achieving development outcomes. Research outcomes (50 words) Governments, research and development organizations use decision analysis tools to better target measurement, monitoring and information services to key uncertainties in development decisions related to agricultural intensification and management of ecosystem services. Increased capacity of the CGIAR, Governments, universities, development NGOs, and conservation groups in decision analysis for sustainable agricultural intensification and improved management of ecosystem services. Expected activities & outputs (100 words) Activities: Development of new decision analysis approaches for pinpointing high value information needs and their application to a portfolio of important development decisions for sustainable intensification. Outputs: ● Improved methods for structuring decisions and value of information analysis, illustrated with case studies. Applied Information Economics framework for forecasting development impacts. ● Participatory analysis of a set of key development decisions related to water, land and ecosystem management at different scales, leading to identification of key objectives, quantification of uncertainties and identification of high value information and measurements. Theory of change (50 words) Systematic scientific analysis of decision problems often leads to counter-intuitive conclusions on what are the critical decisions, which are the key uncertainties, and what measurements and information have high value for reducing uncertainties. Development and wider use of applied information economics and related decision science methods by the CGIAR and development partners will make transformative increases in the effectiveness of information systems research and accelerated learning on effective interventions for sustainable intensification of agriculture in developing countries. Approximate timescales for delivery: 1-5 years Budget over next 3-5 years: $3 million/y over 5 years SRP 5 ACTIVITY CLUSTER 2 Title (15 words) Agro-ecosystem health metrics and monitoring Tagline (if available) Measuring agro-ecosystem health Problem to be addressed: (100 words) There is increasing demand for data on the status and trends in agro-ecosystem health from different categories of users from global to local scale to help guide sustainable intensification and management of agro-ecosystems. New advances in earth observation and proximal sensing in the field and laboratory are transforming our ability to provide accurate information over large areas. However progress is hampered by a lack of systematic approaches to defining and measuring indicators of agro-ecosystem health and making the easily accessible in useful forms. Development objective (SLO link) Improved methods, data and monitoring of agro-ecosystem health metrics improve decision making at different scales on sustainable intensification of agriculture in developing countries (food security, nutrition, health, and poverty, NRM). Intermediate Development objective (long). (100 words) Governments in food insecure countries in CGIAR regions use agro-ecosystem health metrics and monitoring systems as a basis for the design and implementation of investments and interventions for sustainable agricultural intensification, including policy and financial instruments for increasing productivity, managing/sharing risk, valuing and protecting ecosystem services. Research outcomes (50 words) Governments adopt ecosystem health surveillance methods for national- and sub-national level agricultural planning and natural resource management. Increased capacity of Governments, universities, development NGOs, and conservation groups in agro-ecosystem health surveillance science, technology and methods. Expected activities & outputs (100 words) Activities: International working group to define consistent agro-ecosystem health metrics and measurement protocols, with links to the Integrated Monitoring System for Ecosystem Services in African Agricultural Landscapes project. . Geosciences hubs, labs and partnerships for consistent processing of metrics and capacity building across CGIAR regions. Outputs: ● Standardized protocols for deriving agro-ecosystem health metrics at different scales (remote sensing to field/lab measurement) developed and applied in CRP5 study areas. ● Review of indicators, metrics and monitoring systems for agriculture, poverty and environment. ● New methods for remote sensing of water balance components and water quality monitoring; digital mapping of irrigated areas, water productivity, groundwater use, and soil salinity. ● Web-based spatial data and visualization platform providing open access to regional/basin data sets on agro-ecosystem health metrics at regional, basin and sentinel site scales. Tailored information products include maps of ecosystem health and human well-being indicators, water productivity, rainfed, pastoral and irrigated areas, salinity affected areas, ● Capacity development of national scientists, universities and development organizations in ecosystem health assessment and monitoring protocols and information products. Theory of change (50 words) Provision of high quality, well-presented and easily accessible data on agro-ecosystem health metrics and strengthened national capacity in state-of-the-art agro-ecosystem surveillance methods will together drive evidence-based planning, implementation and evaluation of water, land and ecosystem management policy and practice at local to global scales. Improved evidencebased planning and management will in turn accelerate reliable learning on successful agricultural intensification strategies. Approximate timescales for delivery: 2-5 years Budget over next 3-5 years: $3 million/y over 2 years, expanding to $5 million/y in years 3-5. SRP 5 ACTIVITY CLUSTER 3 Title (15 words) Institutionalizing Soil Health Surveillance Systems in Africa Tagline (if available) Evidence-based management of Africa’s soils - AfricaSoils Problem to be addressed: (100 words) Improving soil health and reversing soil and land degradation in sub-Saharan Africa is key to sustainable agriculture and development, addressing challenges such as food insecurity, climate change, water scarcity, and environmental degradation. Current soil information is sparse and inconsistent and does not meet stakeholder decision needs. There are now tested possibilities for rapidly delivering location and near-real time specific information by integrating innovative ground and laboratory measurements with high resolution remote sensing imagery, advanced spatial analytics, and internet-based information delivery technology. Institutionalization of these innovations can support high economic, social and environmental returns on investments in agriculture that will improve the livelihoods of farming communities in Africa while safeguarding the environment. Development objective (SLO link) Improved information on soil health will support decisions on investments from national to land user level that increase productivity, profitability and nutritional value of major food crops in the smallholder sector (food security, nutrition, health, and poverty), and improve agro-ecosystem services (NRM). Intermediate Development objective (long). (100 words) African governments deploy soil health surveillance methods and location specific data on soil and land health to (i) target fertilizer and soil fertility management and investment strategies, and (ii) formulate and monitor land conservation and rehabilitation strategies and plans. Public and private soil testing laboratories use new infrared spectroscopy technology to provide affordable advisory services to smallholder farmers. Research outcomes (50 words) Advances in soil health surveillance developed under the Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS) institutionalized at national level through capacity development in four African countries (Ghana, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania). Increased capacity of Governments, universities, development NGOs, and conservation groups in soil health surveillance science, technology and methods. Business models with public and private sector for commercial soil testing services for smallholder farmers based on infrared spectroscopy. Expected activities & outputs (100 words) Activities: Implementation of capacity development and advisory programmes for national soil information systems. Development of soil health surveillance innovations and information products tailored to specific needs. Outputs: ● National soil health surveillance systems operational and a well-supported soil infrared spectroscopy network in Africa. ● Protocols for soil and field data collection, soil spectroscopic methods and digital mapping of soil/land health indicators. ● ● Infrared calibration libraries and databases of Africa soil functional properties. Digital maps and prevalence estimates of key soil constraints in Africa, and demonstration of information products for specific stakeholder decisions. Theory of change (50 words) Development of national and private sector capacity in soil health surveillance and associated technology will lead to generation and use of relevant soil information for evidence-based decision-making on agriculture and landscape management in Africa at different scales, stimulating investments in sustainable agricultural intensification, which in turn will result in improved soil productivity, food crop yields and quality, and farm incomes, supported by healthy ecosystems. Approximate timescales for delivery: 5 years Budget over next 3-5 years: $8 million/y over 5 years