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Approaches for Future International Co-operation AIXG. 22 March 2005 Harald Dovland Ministry of Environment, Norway Goals for a post-2012 regime • Broader participation (with some type of emission commitment) than in the Kyoto Protocol. o US o Some developing countries • Keep the good elements of Kyoto: o Differentiation o Flexibility (“all”gases, multiyear period, mechanisms). o Reporting and review systems. • Include “sinks”. But how? Goals for a post-2012 regime • Broader participation (with some type of emission commitment) than in the Kyoto Protocol. o US o Some developing countries • Keep the good elements of Kyoto: o Differentiation o Flexibility (“all”gases, multiyear period, mechanisms). o Reporting and review systems. • Include “sinks”. But how? (AIXG) Goals for a post-2012 regime (II) • Be perceived as fair by governments and private sector (level playing field, competitiveness, leakage). • Not be perceived to cap economic growth in developing countries. • Simple, at least not overly complicated (need to monitor compliance). • Include: – Co-operation on adaptation – Strengthened co-operation on technology research, development and deployment Type of commitment after 2012 • Continue the Kyoto-type of commitment (emission ceiling relative to a base year)? • Carbon intensity target (emission per unit GDP)? • Development towards equal per capita emissions? • Total GHG-emissions or selected sectors? • Technology standards [or performance standards], possibly for selected sectors? • Research and development? • Multistage, different types of commitment for different levels of development? Q 1 • What options for international co-operation are most conducive to domestic action? • Economic instruments: • Green taxes • Emission trading • Standards (technical, performance, ..), but this is not a cost-effective solution. Q 1 • What options for international co-operation are most conducive to domestic action? • Economic instruments: • Green taxes • Emission trading • Standards (technical, performance, ..), but this is not a cost-effective solution. (AIXG?) Q2 • Could an agreement containing different approaches (emission targets, technology development and diffusion, policies and measures) be designed in such a way so as to encourage participation, provide flexibility, minimise costs and ensure that all countries pursuing a particular approach have a relatively similar burden and environmental outcome? • Everything is possible, but sometimes things get too complicated? Q 2 Multi-protocol • Emissions caps (total or selected sector(s)) for all or for most developed countries • Adaptation • Technology - research, development and deployment • Should countries sign up to all elements? Or pick the elements they like? • If pick and chose; it seems difficult to ensure level playing field? And designing a fair protocol will be a significant challenge. Q 2 Multi-protocol • Emissions caps (total or selected sector(s)) for all or for most developed countries • Adaptation • Technology - research, development and deployment • Should countries sign up to all elements? Or pick the elements they like? (AIXG) • If pick and chose; it seems difficult to ensure level playing field? And designing a fair protocol will be a significant challenge. (AIXG) Q3 • Which sectors are the most appropriate for international discussions? Can a sectoral approach be integrated with other approaches in a practical way? Q 3. Sectors • Transport - growing in most countries. o Relatively few car producers o Cooperation between governments to put pressure on producers • Electricity – most important sector globally. o Increased use of renewable energy. o Carbon capture and storage a coming technical option, at least for some parts of the world. • Selected industries o Cement? o Steel? Q 3. Sectors • Transport - growing in most countries. (AIXG?) o Relatively few car producers o Cooperation between governments to put pressure on producers • Electricity – most important sector globally. (AIXG) o Increased use of renewable energy. o Carbon capture and storage a coming technical option, at least for some parts of the world. • Selected industries o Cement? o Steel? Q 3. Integration • Depends on how sectoral commitments are formulated. o If selected sectors are the same for all countries, there should be small practical problems (but may not deliver large reductions). o Large sectors in some countries and total emissions in other countries should be manageable? o Picking different sectors in different countries likely to cause difficulties (will not be a level playing field)? Q 3. Integration • Depends on how sectoral commitments are formulated. (AIXG) o If selected sectors are the same for all countries, there should be small practical problems (but may not deliver large reductions). o Large sectors in some countries and total emissions in other countries should be manageable? o Picking different sectors in different countries likely to cause difficulties (will not be a level playing field)? Long term solution • How can we achieve a 50-60-70% reduction in industrialised countries in 2050? o Changing life-style? o Technology change: – Make use of existing low-carbon technologies, including renewable energy. – Carbon sequestration and storage – Research and development. – Technology diffusion/Technology transfer.