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ISSUE 1630
“In Support of Progress”
Newsletter
Date: 29 November 2016
Jobs
Jobs
Much has been said about the need for jobs. The PM talks of innovation and it
being an exciting time to be alive. For some, maybe. But for others - fine rhetoric,
but what does it really mean?
A number of economists classify industries into 5 separate sectors, and I have
taken and accepted this for the comparisons below.
Primary (red)
extraction of raw materials
Secondary (orange)
materials processing
Tertiary (yellow)
services relating to goods
Quaternary (green)
information-related services
Quinary (blue)
human services
Over the last 5 years, the growth in employment in Tasmania has been minimal in trend terms* (only 958, an extraordinarily small figure. However, the job market
has been far more dynamic than that. What the gross figure does not tell us is
that there have been 9740 new jobs created, but 8780 lost. Digging further, we
find that the economy is being transformed.
The piecharts below tell the story, and show where both the growth and decline
have occurred. The percentages are the percentage of all jobs gained/lost.
9,741 jobs gained
8,780 jobs lost
Other 1%
Transport 6%
Real Estate 6%
Health 29%
Admin 7%
Profession 1%
Agriculture 10%
Financial 7%
Mining 8%
Media 5%
Public Admin 12%
Education 10%
Accomm and Food 36%
Retail 11%
Manuf. 12%
Utilities 3%
W/sale 23% Construction 14%
The change in the nature of work has been as dramatic as it has been obvious.
Some sectors have grown, such as in public administration, education, tourismrelated activity (accommodation and food services), and in health care. These
are the areas of “new opportunity“. However, other sectors have shrunk, and it is
in these areas, the traditional primary and secondary sectors, where significant
issues have arisen, for in these areas, the employment was mainly in the private
sector, and where the labour force is less skilled.
Automation, the closure of workshops and the export of jobs, has been the norm.
Not an exciting time for these folk.
* data sourced from the ABS - the average of the previous 4 quarters),
“IN SUPPORT OF PROGRESS” - A NEWSLETTER
PAGE 2
One challenge for government is to recognize that in many cases they have
acted as a block to investment, and the ramifications of such behavior has led
to the loss of employment opportunities in those areas where the need is
greatest.
Calls for government to be more involved in arresting this decline are an everyday occurrence. Government can play a part in developing appropriate
infrastructure and supporting industry clusters (eg defence expenditure,
maritime activity), but government can make a big mistake if it tries to back
individual winners.
Furthermore, the question needs to be: to what extent are our training institutions
geared up to effectively manage this change in work patterns? And to what
extent can retraining effectively make a barista out of a forest worker?
As the figures show, overall growth is non-existent. Tasmania’s policy should be
directed at, and being able to deliver, increasing work opportunities overall. At
the moment we are treading water.
By way of comparison, a similar pie chart for the country as a whole shows
that jobs growth far exceeded jobs lost, but with a similar bias towards
particular sectors.
Jobs growth of 897.9 to jobs lost 118.1, giving a net increase of 777.2 (in
thousands)
897,900 Jobs gained
118,100 jobs lost
Although the segments differ, the overall pattern remains the same. Jobs are being
lost in the primary and secondary sectors, while jobs growth is occurring in the
quaternary and quinary sectors.
Much has been said about the move by voters in the US to support a candidate
who mouths the platitudes of support for the primary and secondary sectors. It is
happening in Australia as well. Populist candidates are gaining traction at the
expense of the major parties, whose actions and words hold little relevance, and
even less resonance with an increasingly concerned electorate.
This newsletter is supported by Tasman Management Services.
Further information is provided at www.julianamos.com.au.