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03 European Equities
EUROPE
OUTPERFORMS
Europe has the potential to be a key investment area in
2016. Conditions there are looking very promising for
equities. A favorable environment for growth means that
domestically focused companies should do well.
Investment Ideas
OVERWEIGHT
EUROPE
CONSIDER
SECTORS
EUROPEAN
SMALL CAPS
MANAGED VOLATILITY
STRATEGIES
For exposure to the
region’s growth
potential.
Domestic cyclicals
have promise.
Have characteristics
that will benefit from
European growth.
Can give participation in the
region’s growth story coupled
with volatility management in
case of a reversal.
Marketing Communication. For Investment Professional Use Only. Not For Use With The Public.
Global Market Outlook 2016
Where’s
Europe Now?
What Matters
in Europe
Europe took center stage again
for investors in 2015, and this
time not only because of crises
such as the ongoing Greek
situation but also because some
of the investment opportunities
that we hinted at in our 2015
Global Market Outlook came
to fruition.
With European large-cap
equities having a substantial
16% sales exposure to the US and
15% to emerging markets, the
economic dynamics in those
regions should not be ignored.
Indeed, for the first three quarters
of the year, the MSCI Europe
index was 1% better than the
World index and slightly better
that than its US counterpart.
But what’s in store for 2016?
Will the success story continue?
And, will the European small-cap
premium, which was over 12%
versus the MSCI Europe index in
the first three quarters of 2015,
be sustained? Could the eurozone
offer a shelter against more
troubled environments elsewhere?
A Return of Sorts
Lagging the Fed by fully six
years, the ECB announced on
22 January 2015 the final details
of its quantitative easing program.
On 22 October it followed up with
an announcement of further
expansion of the program, coupled
with a potential rate decrease.
At the same time, gradual rate
increases by the Fed have been
alluded to but have taken time to
materialize due to general
concerns over the economy and
this summer’s Chinese stock
market crash.
All this happened in a context
where the economic situation in
Europe is looking better, leading
indicators are improving and the
unemployment rate is smoothly
slowing down.
Ideal for Growth
The recent decoupling in the
economic momentum of the
three regions (slowdown in
Emerging markets, stabilization
in the US and improvement in
Europe) will continue to
contribute volatility in the
coming quarters.
As a matter of fact, in recent
months the economic decoupling
between the three regions has
somewhat accelerated. The
reading in the eurozone looks
more favorable with positive
manufacturing indicators and
upward-trending earnings.
Following the global financial
crisis, and after a five-year period
where European equities were off
of most investors’ radar, the first
signs of renewed interest
appeared with the “whatever it
takes” speech from Mario Draghi
in mid 2012. Between then and
mid 2014, European equities
rallied sharply. Since the
beginning of 2015, the picture has
looked encouraging, with flows
coming back to European equities.
It is probably too early to assess
the long-term effects of
European QE on the real
economy in Europe. The longterm challenge for the eurozone
is to raise its growth potential,
significantly reduce structurally
high unemployment and shift
public finances to a more
sustainable path.
Part of the answer has to do with
the ability of European
governments to succeed in
implementing their reform
agendas (labor market, privatesector liberalization and
competitiveness, education etc.)
in a difficult context.
With that disclaimer in mind,
over the short term, the eurozone
economy is underpinned by
strong market conditions.
A WEAKER EURO
LOW INTEREST RATES
LOW RAW MATERIAL PRICES
LOW ENERGY PRICES
All create a
very favorable
environment for
European growth.
The vast majority of European
countries are expected to grow at
a faster pace over the next two
years. Economic leading
indicators that coincide with
stronger economic growth also
rebounded, notably in Germany,
one of Europe’s key countries.
Overall, there is a very positive
outlook for Europe. But how best
to harvest it? Which industries
should be targeted and which
avoided? And how does large cap
and small cap differ in Europe?
Let’s look at these questions in
more detail now.
State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs 02
Global Market Outlook 2016
HOW TO HARVEST
Choose the Right Industry
How should investors position their portfolios to
benefit from this decoupling environment? In order
to tackle this question, we begin by classifying
European industry groups into 4 clusters according
to whether they are cyclical/defensive in one
dimension, or global/domestic (depending on their
sales exposure breakdown) in the other dimension.
We’re looking for the industry group that looks best
placed to benefit from the European growth story.
We then check where the different industry groups
are positioned with respect to their own business
cycle over both the short term (earnings revisions
over the last 3 months) and the longer term (EPS
distance to previous 2007 peak).
If more analysts revise their earnings expectations
upwards than downwards, this is a positive since it
indicates return potential within this industry. The
graph below shows this on the horizontal axis, and
this represents our short-term view.
50%
EPS Distance to Previous 2007 Peak
100%
The overall European market is a mixed bag, with
earnings still lagging their previous cyclical peak
and suffering from negative earnings revisions. But
clearly, most of the industries in the lower-right
quadrant are green — they are both domestic and
cyclical, and it is industries with these
characteristics that are our recommendation.
Domestic Cyclicals
Domestic Defensive
Global Cyclicals
Global Defensive
Household &
Personal Products
Healthcare
Equipment
The second dimension, representing our long-term
view, on the vertical axis, looks at each industry in
terms of earnings per share (EPS) and how the
current EPS value is relative to the EPS peak in 2007
right before the Global Financial Crisis. If an
industry currently shows a lower value EPS than in
2007, this should indicate that there is still potential
in terms of earnings growth (and return, as a result).
1
Software & Services
Automobiles & Components
Food Beverages & Tobacco
Consumer Durables
Semiconductors
Pharmaceuticals
Commercial &
Professional Services
2
Retailing
Media
0%
Capital Goods
MSCI Europe
Consumer
Services Insurance
Transportation
Telecommunications Services
Food Retailing
Utilities
Materials
Energy
-50%
3
Real Estate
Diversified
Financials
Technology
Banks
-100% Earnings Revisions Last 3 Months
-0.5
-0.25
0
0.25
In general, industries with
positive earnings revisions also
trade below their last cyclical
peaks while industries above
their last peak are almost
always negatively revised. This
suggests some diverging sector
dynamics within the market.
Globally exposed industry
groups (both cyclicals and
defensives) all exhibit negative
earnings trends, while the
picture is more mixed for
domestic industry groups.
Domestic industries (both
cyclical and defensive) are all
below previous peak levels
while only a few global
industries (e.g. Energy,
Materials) share this
characteristic.
0.5
Source: SSGA, as of 31 October 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs 03
Global Market Outlook 2016
Choose the Right Capitalization
Go Active?
European small-cap companies are more
domestically focused than their large-cap
counterparts and also offer a more cyclical exposure.
European small-cap stocks have on average more
cyclical exposure than large-cap stocks. European
small-cap stocks are also more domestic than
large caps.*
A number of factors make the current market
environment favorable for active quant
equity managers:
But how have European small-cap stocks done in the
recent past? The graphic below shows that the small-cap
premium remains strong. In 2015 especially, it was a
very good year for small-cap investors in Europe.
The asset class offers a purer leverage to the
domestic European economy than large-cap
companies. With these characteristics, we think
investing in European small-cap companies is
another good way to play the economic decoupling
within Europe.
The European Small-Cap Premium
4.34
%
5.89 12.47
Last 10 Years Last 5 Years
%
%
2015 (YTD)
Source: SSGA. MSCI Europe Small Cap Index minus the MSCI Europe Large
Cap Index return (in EUR). As of 30 September 2015. Past performance is
not a guide to future results.
*More on this analysis can be found in Chatron, Ekambi and Schulmerich,
“European View on Equities: Q4-2015”. SSGA IQ Insights, October 2015.
Heightened Market Volatility
More volatility offers an opportunity for skilled active
management to separate good stocks from bad stocks.
Range of Return Dispersion
Higher dispersion among factors can be preferable
since it gives opportunities for managers to express
their views on factor premia.
Lower Correlations
Correlations have been decreasing since their peak
at the end of 2011, a positive sign for active managers.
Lower correlations can improve active returns for
skilled managers and present opportunities for
adding value.
Active management primarily makes sense when an
asset manager is managing a complex strategy that
invests in less-widely researched areas such as
small-cap equities or emerging markets.
The more efficient the market, the more difficult it is
to generate excess returns through active
management. However, with superior research, and
an “information edge,” successful active management
in more efficient markets is indeed possible.
Convinced but Cautious?
There are still many unresolved issues that may yet throw some volatility into the European
mix. The rest of the world continues to slow down, especially Emerging Markets. Although
Europe has a large internal market, it is not insulated from slowdowns elsewhere, as recent
decreases in German exports shows. And, the impact of the recent influx of refugees has yet to
be fully quantified. The first casualty has been Chancellor Merkel’s approval rating, leaving her
less able to maneuver politically. The recent Volkswagen emissions affair has also cast a cloud
over the powerful “Made in Germany” brand.
Investors may want to retain exposure to Europe but with added downside protection in case of
a reversal. One way of achieving this is via managed volatility strategies. These target a 20-30%
reduction in overall volatility relative to the broad equity market while remaining fully exposed
to equities. The long-term investment case for managed volatility strategies is strong, and they
really come into their own in times of uncertainty.
State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs 04
Global Market Outlook 2016
IDEAS FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO
WITH SPDR ETFs
Amid a complex but recovering growth profile, potential opportunities to access sources of
return while managing European equity market risk include cyclical sector investing and
smart beta strategies. The following SPDR ETFs can help you express these investment ideas
for the upcoming year.
European Sector ETFs
In a sector rotation strategy, an investor can use
ETFs to increase their allocation to sectors expected
to outperform because of cyclical trends, and
decrease their allocation to sectors that are expected
to underperform.
The SPDR fund range is the broadest suite of sector
ETFs in the market. Our shorter term European
cyclical picks for the upcoming part of the year are:
SPDR® MSCI Europe Financials UCITS ETF
SPDR® MSCI Europe Industrials UCITS ETF
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0J47
TER
0.30%
Euronext Ticker
STQ (EUR)
LSE Ticker
NDUS (EUR)
SPDR® MSCI Europe Energy UCITS ETF
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0G16
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0F09
TER
0.30%
TER
0.30%
Euronext Ticker
STZ (EUR)
Euronext Ticker
STN (EUR)
LSE Ticker
FNCL (EUR)
LSE Ticker
ENGY (EUR)
SPDR® MSCI Europe Consumer Discretionary
UCITS ETF
SPDR® MSCI Europe Technology UCITS ETF
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0C77
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0K51
TER
0.30%
TER
0.30%
Euronext Ticker
STR (EUR)
Euronext Ticker
STK (EUR)
LSE Ticker
CDIS (EUR)
LSE Ticker
ITEC (EUR)
State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs 05
Global Market Outlook 2016
A Domestic Bias with European
Small Caps
European small caps have fairly high exposure to
Consumer Discretionary and Financials, sectors
which are expected to benefit from quantitative
easing as per the previous sector selection.
With close to 12% exposure to Italy, Spain and
Portugal combined, the MSCI Europe Small Cap
Index provides investors with quick, efficient,
diversified exposure should potential
outperformance arise from the ECB’s drive
to foster rapid reforms in these markets.
SPDR® MSCI Europe Small Cap
UCITS ETF
Smart Beta
Investors are looking for new ways to access sources
of return while managing equity market risk. Smart
beta strategies, which seek to isolate factors that
have been shown to outperform standard market
cap-weighted indices over the long term, respond
directly to this demand.
Dividend investing is a potentially effective way to
augment income. The following Dividend Aristocrats
ETF provides exposure to the 40 highest yielding
companies in the eurozone that have paid increasing
or stable dividends for at least 10 consecutive years.
SPDR® S&P® Euro Dividend Aristocrats
UCITS ETF
ISIN
IE00BKWQ0M75
ISIN
IE00B5M1WJ87
TER
0.30%
TER
0.30%
Euronext Ticker
SMC (EUR)
Deutsche Börse Ticker
SPYW (EUR)
LSE Ticker
EUSC (GBP)
LSE Ticker
EUDI (EUR), EUDV (GBP)
Visit spdrseurope.com for our full range of
European exposure ETFs.
State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs 06
About Us
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State Street Global Advisors is the investment management arm of State Street Corporation.
*Assets under management were $2.2 trillion as of 30 September 2015.
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State Street Global Advisors | SPDR ETFs
07
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