Download (i) Light industry output growth

Development of Industry
Since the reform and opening of China in the 1980s,
China has implemented a demand-led model of
industry development. Light industry has advanced
greatly, with an average annual growth rate of 17%
and the end of the 1990s seeing explosive growth.
In 2011, total output from China’s light industry
reached 124.12 billion RMB, a 131 fold growth on
China’s light industry’s output value at the
beginning of the reforms and opening.
Along with China’s incessant urbanisation, light
industry will continue to develop. However, along
with a constant rise in the cost of raw goods, the
gradual disappearance of China’s population
dividend, worsening conditions for import and
export and an increase in the competitiveness of
countries around the periphery of China, China’s
light industry will head for decline. At this point in
time, the growth rate of light industry will be zero
or the industry may even see negative growth.
Trajectory 1:
increasing competitiveness. China’s industrial
In this scenario, China’s light industry
continues to follow current patterns of
growth and the turning point for growth
emerges in accordance with the standard life
cycle for light industry development.
Currently, the annual growth rate of China’s
light industry is over 10%. By 2015 this will
decline to 2/3 of current growth rates, then
by 2020 there will be further decline to 1/2
of current growth rates and finally in 2025
growth will reach 1/3 of current growth rates.
In 2030, along with China entering a mature
phase of industrial development, the increase
in living standards in China will reach a
fixed point, and there will be changes to
trade structure. After 2030, growth will drop
to 1/6 of current levels, from 2030-2040
there will be no changes and after this it will
decline.
structure undergoes appropriate revisions. Light
industry becomes a declining industry, growth
rapidly declines and the turning point for light
Trajectory 2:
In this scenario, China is focussed on saving energy,
reducing emissions, safeguarding resources and
industry’s development is brought forward by
government regulations.
The growth rate of light industry dramatically
declines, and in 2015, growth has already fallen to
1/2 of current levels. By 2020 growth has dropped
to 1/3 of current levels, and by 2025 growth has
dropped to 1/4 of current levels. Around 2030,
there will be zero growth. After 2040, light industry
starts to go into decline.
Trajectory 3:
In this scenario, policies aiming to adjust China’s
industrial structure are fully in place and the
transformation is successful. Light industry output
value as a proportion of GDP begins to decline and
growth rates begin to slow. The light industry
growth turning point emerges as projected in
Trajectory 2, but even earlier. The period of time
spanning China’s 12th 5 year plan becomes a
phase of industry structure adjustment, and is also
the crucial phase of the transformation of China’s
economic development. Light industry’s growth
of today’s. From 2020-2025, the gross output of
regulations cause China’s light industry to
rate rapidly declines until it is 1/3 of today’s, and
light industry in China does not change, but after
this light industry begins to shrink. Government
prematurely reach zero growth.
by 2020 China’s light industry growth rate is 1/6
Light industry’s growth (where 2010 = 100) 2010 年 = 100
400
350
2.2%
300
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
4.5%
350
-1.0%
6.7%
2.2%
200
8.9%
6.7%
150
100
13.4%
13.4%
13.4%
4.5%
0.0%
0.0%
4.5%
2.2%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
250
7.1%
200
4.7%
3.5%
-1.0%
9.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
50
情景1
情景2
情景3
0
100
14.2%
14.2%
14.2%
1.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
2.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
50
情景1
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2010
The textile industry’s added-value
情景2
情景3
2015
2020
2025
2030
500
2.6%
450
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
4.0%
400
350
4.0%
200
10.6%
7.9%
15.8%
15.8%
15.8%
5.3%
450
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
5.3%
8.3%
4.2%
250
200
11.1%
8.3%
150
2.6%
50
0.0%
0.0%
情景1
2050
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
1.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
5.5%
350
1.3%
2045
4.2%
300
7.9%
250
2040
400
5.3%
300
2035
The food industry’s added-value
500
100
0.0%
0
2010
150
0.0%
7.1%
150
-1.0%
0.0%
4.7%
300
250
2.4%
3.5%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
情景2
0.0%
情景3
0
100
16.6%
16.6%
16.6%
5.5%
5.5%
2.8%
50
0.0%
情景1
情景2
情景3
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
The paper manufacturing industry’s added-value
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
The plastic and rubber industry’s added-value