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Capism: Business Simulation Vision Statement Our vision is to differentiate ourselves within the sensor industry. We will achieve this with designs that are both fresh and exciting to our customers. Our customers are the companies that build the technology of the future. Therefore, it is important to us that we provide them with the best sensors that will result in production of industry leading technology for tomorrow and the future. Mission Statement Erie Global Sensors’ mission is to become the global leader in the sensors industry. We strive to build sensors that best meet the needs of our customers. We utilize the latest innovative technologies to consistently improve our products. We believe that with our innovative products we can provide the best sensors for the technology of the future. Prof Bowen: Page 1 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Formal Organizational Chart Gerald Harrison R&D Manager 1. Update products Pfmn, Size, and MTBF. 2. Discuss Plant Capacity needs and New Automation needs with Production. 3. Update Promo Budget as needed. 4. Coordinate Sales Budget with Finance. 5. Discuss Pricing Strategy with Marketing. 6. Work with Finance on TQM initiatives to keep material and labor costs down. Derrick Felder Production Manager Ekaterina Vorobyova Marketing Manager Chris Arata Finance Manager Charles Meighen Finance Manager 1. Update Production Schedule. 2. Buy or sell Plant Capacity as needed. 3. Increase Automation as needed. 1. Perform the calculations to create the Sales Forecast. 2. Discuss pricing strategy with R&D Manager and Finance Managers. 3. Set Product Pricing. 1. Work with marketing to create competitive forecast and pricing. 2. Work with production to determine forecast and pricing. 3. Double check all other expenses and investments to insure overall firm health. 4. Make sure revenues cover expenses/ investments prior to processing each round. 5. Determine capital structure goals and sources of funds for each round. 1. Perform analysis on the Proformas to make sure the company is maintaining profitability. 2. Discuss with Marketing about pricing of products and make adjustments as necessary. 3. Set Promo and Sales budget numbers. 4. Set all of the HR numbers. 5. Set and adjust TQM numbers. Strategic Management Process Marketing Manager Our goal is to monitor prices and promotion of our sensors. We will interact with our customers through our sales team and distribution system. We will also be responsible for sales forecasting. In addition, our marketing department will work closely with our production department to ensure manufacturing quantities are accurate and in line with forecasts. We will also work with our finance department to project revenues for each product and to double check our forecasting numbers. 1. Perform a situational analysis on each previous round using the Capstone Courier and compare all companies. Each round analyze their prices and amount of products in each category sold 2. To determine the Forecast in the first few rounds, I used a specific formula when computing for each product: Sales forecast part 1: [(Industry Demand x Next Year’s Growth Rate) # of products with Market Share of 10%+] Prof Bowen: Page 2 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Sales forecast part 2: [sales forecast part 1+ (sales forecast part 1/ 12)] 3. After about the third round, I started forecasting using a different method, which was to select the group that sold the highest amount of units (if our product stocked out) and multiply that amount by Next Year’s Growth Rate for that particular product and add 1 month extra supply by taking that forecast and adding the same forecast after dividing it by 12. For products we did not stock out in, I used the units we sold and multiplied it by that product’s growth rate for the next year then added the forecast divided by 12, to add an extra month’s supply 4. With the numbers calculated for my team’s sales forecast, I consulted with the Production Manager to make sure that our capacity allowed my team to produce the sales forecast calculated. If for some reason the capacity was not high enough to match the sales forecast, we would lower the sales forecast to the highest possible capacity for that product. 5. Determine sales prices and keep a chart of all teams’ prices for each product starting with Round 1. Keep track and analyzed the changes to prices made by other groups of the course of each round to predict their price range for the next round, in order to keep a competitive price in the sensor business 6. Analyze competitor’s prices and review the Capstone Courier report for the previous round and check each product’s section to ensure that sales price was within the expected range for the next round, which is always 50 cents lower than the previous round 7. Each time there was a price adjustment for the next round, I consult with the Product and R&D Manager as well as the Finance Managers to make sure everyone agrees on the price Research & Development Our goal is to listen to what our customers want as far as sensor size, performance, and mean time before failure (MTBF). We do this by closely monitoring the segment analysis reports as well as feedback that we receive from analyzing reports and reading the Capstone Courier. Knowing this information will allow us to differentiate ourselves within the sensor industry because we can then update our sensors to stay aligned with what our customers want. This makes it possible for us to position ourselves within each of our five market segments to capture the largest market share in the industry by providing exactly what the market demands when they need it. All of this is accomplished by having ongoing communication with our Marketing Manager and our Production Manager. 1. Perform a situation Analysis of the perceptual map using the industry conditions report to determine the ideal spot locations for each industry segment 2. Use product information from page 4 of the Capstone Courier to see where our products rank against our competitors, comparing each market segment against the industry leader for that year 3. Use Traditional Customer Buying Criteria from pages 5-9 of the Capstone Courier to find out what our customers want as far as product age, performance, size, and MTBF Prof Bowen: Page 3 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation 4. Discuss next year’s forecast and pricing with Marketing and Finance to determine sales estimates and product pricing. We look at Traditional Statistics and Traditional Customer Buying Criteria utilizing industry unit demand, segment growth rate, and segment price range to make some assumptions about our forecast 5. Discuss plant utilization and automation levels with Production and Finance to determine our future needs 6. Assist Production with calculations to determine our capacity needs for the upcoming year 7. Work with Finance to find ways to improve our Contribution Margin. I do this by examining the Segment Analysis pages of the Capstone Courier to see how our products rank in customer awareness and accessibility. I then make changes to the Promotion Budget and Sales Budget as needed 8. Look at the TQM Summary of the Capstone Courier to see what we are spending compared to our competitors and compare that to how our company is doing with respect to our competition. I try to determine which initiatives are giving the most return for dollars spent. This plays into the Contribution Margin analysis Production Manager Main responsibility is to manufacture and produce products in order to reach consumer demand. Also in charge of buying or selling capacity in order to make factory size smaller (selling) or bigger (buying). Production Schedule In order to determine the production schedule, we must use the sales forecast numbers and minus it by the inventory on hand. As a production manager I try my best to prevent stock outs by having a little inventory left over after each round. In some cases where there is no inventory on hand, we match the numbers of the production schedule with the sales forecast numbers in order to produce some inventory and avoid a stock out in the following year. When making a production schedule we take in consideration the 2nd shift production and contribution margin to ensure that our plant will have enough workers to cover the 2nd shift in production just in case our workers can’t produce all of the products necessary in the 1st shift. 1. 2. 3. 4. Check unit sales forecast to make sure that we can produce enough units Check how much inventory on hand we have for each of our products Take unit sales forecast and subtract out inventory on hand to determine production amount Match the results to production after adjustment by increasing the production schedule until the production after adjustment matches the results from #3 Prof Bowen: Page 4 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Production Equipment For production equipment, the key elements that are taken into consideration are buying/selling capacity and automation. In determining buying and selling capacity we take into consideration the size of our 1st shift capacity. If our 1st shift capacity is too big then we would consider selling some of the capacity to make our plant smaller and more efficient for production. If our capacity size is too small then we would consider buying capacity to ensure that we have enough equipment needed for making a product. We can also reduce labor costs by increasing automation along with buying or selling capacity and the amount of increase in automation will be carried over in total investments if we bought capacity or in the sales of plant and equipment if we sold capacity in the finance department. We don’t have to buy or sell capacity and increase automation all the time but only in situations where our plant is in bad condition or if we don’t have enough money to cover the investments made for our plant 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Check 2nd shift Production for each product to see if it is under or over 70% If 2nd shift production is under 70% then I won’t buy capacity for that product If 2nd shift production is over 70% then I would buy capacity for that product Determine the amount of capacity to buy for each product by multiplying the growth rates for each segment by their unit sales forecasts and then add that on to the sales forecasts. I then divide each result by 1.7 and subtract the current 1st shift capacity from the result. I round the results up to the nearest whole number for next the year’s capacity needs Use the same results and add it to the current 1st shift capacity Check total unit cost for each product (labor & material) Check contribution margin for each product If contribution margin is over 35% then I won’t buy automation If contribution margin is under 30% then I would buy automation based on the growth rate for the following year Finance Manager Our objective here is to assist our marketing department with their forecasting of sales and setting prices. In addition to that we provide marketing with promotional and sales budget information. We also make decisions regarding human resources functions such as: labor negotiations, recruitment spending, training hours, and set TQM budgets. We also work closely with our Production Manager to make sure they have the inventory on hand that they need to meet production demand. We do this by determining if the company’s financial position is such that we can meet the needs of production. We work closely with production when investment decisions are made about buying/selling capacity and increasing automation. Once we have determined expenses and investments for the round we make decisions for the financial structure of the company. Determine the capital structure and decide which source of funds fits the current needs and goals of the firm. 1. Check the current cash position of the company. Prof Bowen: Page 5 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Check forecasted prices and make adjustments with marketing manager. Work with production to see if we have the cash position to add more plant capacity. Take the investment number and subtract it from our calculated cash position and determine if we need to raise funds using equity or debt. Use the Proformas such as the Balance sheet and Income statement to make decisions about more LT debt/buying back LT debt or issuing more Common Stock/buying back Common stock. Use the ratios to determine if we are levered properly such as the Leverage ratio. By looking at the Income statement we can see the net margin and try to raise it by investing in TQM and raising prices on products when necessary. Make sure labor negotiations are being met in order to minimize employee turnover and strikes and to increase productivity. By checking the cash position and accounting for these costs we determine how much we can spend. Work with production and marketing to raise the contribution margin by cutting costs in promo, sales budget, and by raising prices. Lastly, we double check with the other managers to go over the numbers and talk about any concerns. Prof Bowen: Page 6 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 1a. Internal Factors Assessments Financial Perspective Total Sales Revenues are above industry average and growing at or beyond our goals Our Leverage (i.e., Debt/Equity) ratio is healthy Our ability to cover short term debt (Current ratio) is healthy Our ability to raise fast cash (Liquidity ratio) is healthy Our ability to convert revenues to profit is comparatively strong (Net profit margins) Our investors are confident in our future earning potential (P/E ratio) Management is efficiently turning sales into earnings (ROS) Our company is using its assets efficiently (ROA) Our returns to shareholders are competitive and encourage investment (ROE) The true value of our company is large relative to our competitors (Market Cap) Our historical ability to effectively manage company cash flow is strong [Emergency loan(s)?] Strength (+) Weakness (-) ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ Total Sales Revenues are below average and not reaching our goals Our leverage ratio is unhealthy Our ability to cover short term debt is inadequate Our inability to raise fast cash puts us at risk Our poor net profit margins show lack of cost control and insufficient earnings Our investors lack confidence in our future earning potential Management is not using company assets efficiently to generate earnings Our company is operating less efficiently Our returns to shareholders are not competitive and discourage investment The true value of our company is poor relative to our competitors Our company has needed one or more emergency loan(s) to survive Prof Bowen: Page 7 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 1b. Internal Factors Assessments (cont.) Internal Business Processes Perspective Strength (+) Weakness (-) Our company’s contribution margin ≥ 30% Utilization of our production facilities is efficient Our working capital is sufficient Forecasting skill prevents lost sales due to stock-outs Forecasting skill minimizes inventory carrying costs Our cumulative operating profit is growing and adequate to fund our corporate growth needs Demonstrated management team efficiency (e.g., everyone engaged, productive, and working hard) Demonstrated management team effectiveness; that is, everyone is well-prepared (i.e., all preparation assignments completed) and contributing to achievement of desired results Strategic Management process well organized, functional, and understood ③②① ③②① ③②① ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ Our contribution margin < 30% Our plant utilization is inefficient Our working capital is insufficient Poor forecasting creates lost sales due to stock outs Forecasting skill minimizes inventory carrying costs ③②① ①②③ Our cumulative operating profit is inadequate ③②① ①②③ Demonstrated management team dysfunction ③②① ①②③ Demonstrated management team ineffectiveness ③②① ①②③ Demonstrated ineffective strategic management planning and processes ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ Prof Bowen: Page 8 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 1c. Internal Factors Assessments (cont.) Customer Perspective Strength (+) Weakness (-) ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ Our products are aligned with customer buying criteria ③②① ①②③ Customers are aware of our products Potential customers can purchase our products ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ We sell the maximum number of viable products ③②① ①②③ We are controlling our SG&A expenses Our overall weighted average Customer survey score is the highest in the industry Company market share (overall) is the highest in the industry We have invested in sufficient capacity to meet current and/or future customer needs We have invested competitively in production efficiencies to be a able to meet customer needs while still making a profit ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ Our company’s product/segment mix is currently optimized (i.e., all segments performing well and fit with our mission) Our company’s product/segment mix positions us in the marketplace well to move the company profitably into the future Our company’s product/segment mix is not optimal (i.e., we need to cut or add segments) Our company’s product/segment mix needs adjustment(s) if the company is to move profitably into the future Our products are not aligned with customer buying criteria Customers are unaware of our products Our products are unavailable to potential customers We sell fewer viable products than our top competitor(s) Our SG&A expenses are too high Our overall weighted average Customer survey score is the lowest in the industry Company market share is the lowest in the industry We have insufficient production capacity to meet current and/or future customer needs Our cost structure is too high to allow us to profitably meet customer needs Prof Bowen: Page 9 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 1d. Internal Factors Assessments (cont.) Learning and Growth Perspective We are skilled at managing employee satisfaction/turnover, resulting in more efficient operations We are developing productive employees We are realizing gains from TQM investments in Materials Cost reduction We are realizing gains from TQM investments in R&D cycletime reduction We are realizing gains from TQM investments in Administrative Cost reduction We are realizing gains from TQM investments in creating a Demand increase Sales/employee (productivity) is improving Assets/employees (productivity) is improving Profits/Employee (efficiency) is improving Strength (+) Weakness (-) ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ We are unskilled at managing employee satisfaction/turnover Our employees are unproductive ③②① ①②③ We have not invested to reduce our Materials Costs ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ①②③ ③②① ③②① ③②① ③②① ③②① ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ ①②③ We have not invested to reduce our R&D cycle-time Costs We have not invested to reduce our Administrative Costs We have not invested to create increased Demand for our products Sales/employee (productivity) is not improving Assets/employees is not improving Profits/Employee is not improving Prof Bowen: Page 10 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 2a. External Opportunity Assessments + Market/Customer-based Opportunities Is/Are there opportunity(ies) for new product placement in underserved segment(s)? Are there segments where customers are either ill-served or “unsatisfied?” Are we benefitting sufficiently from growing markets? Can we utilize our financial strength to generate competitive advantages? Can we utilize our marketing strength to generate competitive advantages? Can we utilize our production strength to generate competitive advantages? Can we utilize our internal efficiencies to generate competitive advantages? ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ ③②①⓪ Prof Bowen: Page 11 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 2b. External Threat Assessments - Market/Competitor-based Threats Are competitors bringing new products into one or more segments? Is/Are there threat(s) from competitor dominance is any segment(s)? Are any competitors, and/or potential competitors, developing threatening “technological” advantages and/or efficiencies (e.g., automation)? Are any of our products failing in the marketplace? Can we afford to “fix” the problems? Might any of our cost items become unpredictable? Might any of our cost items become too high/non-competitive, and therefore unsustainable? Might any market segment become saturated in the near future? Are any competitors developing threatening cost advantages? Are any competitors developing threatening “economies of scale” advantages? Are any competitors developing threatening “marketing” advantages? Are we vulnerable to a labor strike/stoppage? Are we vulnerable to future declining industry/economic conditions? Are we vulnerable to unfavorable legal/regulatory conditions? Are we susceptible to market or other repercussions from our past or present ethical/social responsibility choices? ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ ⓪①②③ Prof Bowen: Page 12 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 3. Organizational Strengths (from Tables 1a-1d) Corporate-level Strengths Strategic/tactical option(s) Positioned and optimized product/segment mix We have what we think is an optimized product mix. Do not make any changes here but continue to track each segment and ensure healthy contribution margins. Business-level Strengths Strategic/tactical option(s) Total Sales Growth Sales are growing at a faster pace than any competitors. Continue to focus on pricing for all products. Look for pricing patterns and opportunities in the market. Control the amount of debt used. Continue to check leverage ratio to ensure healthy capital structure. Highest in the industry. Continue to calculate these ratios each round to ensure firm health. Stay on top of the pfmn, high, and size products to increase margins. Slight price increase can help the margin if we see an opportunity to raise the price for these products. Continue to track this number to remain highest of the industry. We can also control this number by controlling the amount of equity outstanding. The more shares we buy back the higher the return will be on current shares. Additionally, check returns and profitability of the firm as a whole to make sure our investors are satisfied. Ensure that we are investing in the proper assets. Plant capacity should be 1.7 for each product and automation should stay up to date with the industry or increase if we see potential opportunity to grow past competitors. Also Continue to track ROA to ensure healthy ratio. Customer satisfaction score can be increased. Additionally Look for opportunities to increase prices in the market also increase automation in high, pfmn, and size. Capacity is sufficient for each product. Continue to forecast one year ahead for each to product to ensure 170% plant utilization. Continue to check each product is using plant efficiently. Make sure plant utilization in 170% Overall Market Share is highest in the industry. Pfmn, size, and high end can be improved. Check the results at the bottom of the capstone courier. Check the investments of the other firms and the results of their investments. If we see the opportunity to invest more will give better results we will analyze TQM and make proper changes. Leverage Liquidity and current ratio Net Profit Margins P/E Ratio, ROE ROA Aligned products and customer satisfaction Contribution Margin Sufficient Capacity Plant utilization Overall Market Share TQM Operating-level Strengths Strategic/tactical option(s) Emergency Loans Make sure revenues are covering expenses for each round and investments are covered through a proper source of funds (equity or debt). Continue to minimize current liabilities by raising the proper amount of funds for investing activity to Sufficient Working Capital Prof Bowen: Page 13 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Team efficiency Forecasting Sufficient Operating Profit Production Efficiencies Employee Production/Satisfaction ensure no current debt. Continue to check our progress at the beginning of each class and discuss decisions with entire group. Also calling each other before the round processes to make sure all jobs are done and double checked. Continue to use the growth rate plus an extra two months of inventory for our forecast. Look for opportunities in the market where we can take on more risk by producing more products. Increase automation and TQM each round to compete with industry averages. Advance past industry averages when we realize the opportunity to grow through investing more money. Optimize recruiting and training time to increase productivity and decrease turnover. These numbers should be check after each round to ensure health. Prof Bowen: Page 14 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 4. Organizational Weaknesses (from Tables 1a-1d) Corporate-level Weaknesses Strategic/tactical option(s) Business-level Weaknesses Strategic/tactical option(s) Operating-level Weaknesses Strategic/tactical option(s) Customer Accessibility and Awareness Customer Survey Score Invest in more promo for pfmn, high, and size products Overall towards the top of the industry but can improve here. Look more closely to customer criterian for pfmn, high, and size products Prof Bowen: Page 15 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 5. External-based Opportunities (from Table 2a) Corporate-level Opportunities Strategic/tactical option(s) We have the highest Return On Sales among competitors We have higher Sales among competitors We have higher profits (Net Profit & Cumulative Profit) among competitors Continue developing products that consumers will buy by meeting up with industry unit demands and the growth rate for each year Continue developing products that consumers will buy by meeting up with industry unit demands and the growth rate for each year as well as setting a competitive price Continue developing products that consumers will buy by meeting up with industry unit demands and the growth rate for each year Business-level Opportunities Strategic/tactical option(s) Majority of consumers like our products based on our Customer’s Accessibility for each of our products Consumers are aware of our products based on our Customer’s Awareness for each of our products Opportunity to introduce new products in the marketplace Continue focusing on positioning our products according to the industry unit demands in each year and also develop sales forecasts and set prices accordingly to industry unit demands in each year for each of our products Continue focusing on positioning our products according to the industry unit demands for each year Operating-level Opportunities Strategic/tactical option(s) We have relatively good contribution margins for each of our products We have relatively good Automation rating for each of our products We run 0% of overtime for our plant Continue investing automation and plant capacity for our plant according to the industry unit demands for each year Continue to invest in automation rating until we meet our ideal labor/material cost Develop new products in our R&D and Production departments in the following year so our company can stay relevant and continue to compete Continue to grow our plant by investing our automation and plant capacity according to the industry unit demands for each year Prof Bowen: Page 16 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 6. External-based Threats (from Table 2b) Corporate-level Threats Strategic/tactical option(s) We are ranked last in total leverage (assets/equity) Focus on how other competitors leverage is higher than ours then capitalize Business-level Threats Strategic/tactical option(s) New product entry by competitors Competitors are lowering their prices Come out with new products in the following years Don’t do the same. Just be aware of the situation and keep up with the growth rate and industry unit demands Find out how competitors’ customer awareness is higher than capitalize ( we can fix this problem by coming up with better sales forecast) Couple of Competitors’ customer awareness for certain products are higher than some of our products Couple of competitors’ customer accessibility for Find out how competitors’ customer accessibility is higher than capitalize (we can fix this problem by certain products is higher than some of our coming up with better sales forecast and better pricing and promotions for each of our products) products Operating-level Threats Strategic/tactical option(s) Stock outs for some of our products Keep producing enough products in our production schedule so we can still have enough products to sell for the following years, increase capacity Prof Bowen: Page 17 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 7: Priorities for Internal Strengths (from Table 3) Statement of Internal Strength(s) 1 Increasing Net Profit Margin 1 = Low Likelihood of Occurrence 2 3 4 X’s 5 = High 1 = Low 2 Seriousness 3 4 5 = High = Strength Index Number 4 5 20 2 Aligned with Customer Buying Criteria 4 5 20 3 Increasing ROA 4 4 16 4 Increasing ROE 4 4 16 5 Increasing Employee Production and Decreasing Turnover 4 4 16 6 Utilization of production facilities 7 Overall Market Share 4 4 16 4 4 16 Prof Bowen: Page 18 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 8: Priorities for Internal Weaknesses (from Table 4) Statement of Internal Weakness(es) 1 Customer Survey Score 2 Customer Awareness 1 = Low Likelihood of Occurrence 2 3 4 X’s 5 = High 1 = Low 5 4 Seriousness 3 4 2 5 = High = Strength Index Number 3 15 3 12 3 4 5 6, etc. Prof Bowen: Page 19 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 9: Priorities for External Opportunities (from Table 5) Statement of External Opportunity(ies) 1 Return On Sales among competitors 1 = Low Likelihood of Occurrence 2 3 4 X’s 5 = High 1 = Low 2 Seriousness 3 4 5 = High = Strength Index Number 5 5 25 2 Sales among competitors 3 Profits (Net Profit & Cumulative Profit) among competitors 5 5 25 5 5 25 4 No overtime 5 5 25 5 Contribution Margin 5 5 25 6, etc. Prof Bowen: Page 20 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 10: Priorities for External Threats (from Table 6) Statement of External Threat(s) 1 Last rank in total leverage (assets/equity) 1 = Low Likelihood of Occurrence 2 3 4 4 2 New product entry by competitors 3 3 Stock outs for some of our products 3 4 Lowering of prices from competitors 3 X’s 5 = High 1 = Low Seriousness 3 4 2 5 = High 3 7 3 6 5 3 = Strength Index Number 8 6 5 6, etc. Prof Bowen: Page 21 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 11. SWOT Possible Strategic/Tactical Recommendations (Prioritized from Tables 7, 8, 9, and 10) Recommendation(s) to capitalize on identified relative business STRENGTHS: 1.Increase employee production and decrease turnover 2.Increase production facilities to continue profit growth 3.Increase automation to reduce labor costs and increase margin 4. 5. Cost $1,000,000/year $12,500,000/year $10,000,000/year Recommendation(s) to improve on identified relative business WEAKNESSES: 1.Invest in proper R&D to stay aligned with customer buying criteria to improve customer survey score(we want to be the best in the industry here) 2.Increase promo budget 3. 4. 5. Recommendation(s) to take advantage of business/market OPPORTUNITIES: 1. Continue developing products that consumers will buy by meeting up with industry unit demands and the growth rate for each year 2. Continue to grow our plant by investing our automation and plant capacity according to the industry unit demands for each year 3. Continue focusing on positioning our products according to the industry unit demands in each year and also develop sales forecasts and set prices accordingly to industry unit demands in each year for each of our products How Financed (if chosen) Mix of debt and equity Mix of debt and equity Mix of debt and equity Cost How Financed (if chosen) $14,000,000/year Mix of debt and equity $3,000,000/year Mix of debt and equity Cost How Financed (if chosen) None None Depends on how much it cost to increase automation and plant capacity for each year None Investments form our cash statements form balance sheet None Prof Bowen: Page 22 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation 4. 5. Recommendation(s) to mitigate business/market THREATS: 1. Keep producing enough products in our production schedule so we can still have enough products to sell for the following years in order to prevent from stocking out 2. Focus on how other competitors leverage is higher than ours then capitalize 3. Find out how competitors’ customer accessibility is higher then capitalize (we can fix this problem by coming up with better sales forecast and better pricing and promotions for each of our products. Also by determining the industry unit demands and growth rate for each of the following years) 4. 5. Cost How Financed (if chosen) None None None None None None Prof Bowen: Page 23 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. Capism: Business Simulation Table 12. Final SWOT Recommendation Summary (From Table 11 - given available resources) Corporate-level Strategy tactical recommendation(s) with cost: 1. Focus on how other competitors leverage is higher than ours then capitalize 2. 3. Cost None Business-level Strategy tactical recommendation(s) with cost: 1. Come out with new products in the following years 2. For Competitors that are lowering their prices we will not do the same but instead just be aware of the situation by keeping up with the growth rate and industry unit demands 3. Find out how competitors’ customer awareness is higher then capitalize (we can fix this problem by coming up with better sales forecast) 4. Find out how competitors’ customer accessibility is higher then capitalize (we can fix this problem by coming up with better sales forecast and better pricing and promotions for each of our products) 5. 6. 7. Operating-level Strategy tactical recommendation(s) with cost: 1. Increase Automation 2.Employee Production 3.Plant size improvements 4.Promo budget 5. 6. Cost Depends on the type of product &, what segment the new product will be sold in None None None Cost $10,000,000/year $1,000,000/year $12,500,000/year $3,000,000/year Total Cost of Recommendations: Prof Bowen: Page 24 of 33 *©Michael G Bowen, 2012. SWOT Summary In order to increase total sales, we must we must understand the market and how our competitors are capitalizing on opportunities and inefficiencies in the market, then develop forecast numbers and price our product accordingly to meet consumer demand as well as increasing our sales for the following years. We must also focus on the company leverage ratio and structure similarly to the industry’s leading firms. In order to keep up with today’s market is to introduce new products in the following years ahead in order to stay relevant in the market. Other companies are dumping by setting their prices lower than they are supposed to but the only thing that we can do for this situation is to be aware of the matter and not to copy them in any way. We must also research and understand why some of our competitor’s customer awareness and accessibility is higher than some of our products and then capitalize on the situation. Some of the things that we can look into are our sales forecast, the next year growth rate and industry unit demands for each of the following years. And to also come up with better pricing and promotions tactics for our products. In order to increase our market share we must increase our customer awareness and accessibility according to our promotion budget, sales budget, and to the consumer demand in each year. In order to reduce our material and labor cost we must continue to invest in automation until we meet our ideal material and labor cost. Note we don’t have to have the same labor and material cost as our competitors, just only to the point that our plant can be less expensive in the following years so it can be run more efficiently. In order to prevent from stocking out we must continue to produce enough products in our production schedule so we can have enough products to sell for the current year and for next year and also invest for our plant’s capacity and automation. Porter Analysis Threat of New Entrants: - Low The threat of new entrants does not exist in our industry. New companies are blocked from entering or leaving the industry so in that respect we operate like a cartel. Beyond that competition is fierce in the fight for market share and profits. The way in which a threat exists here is when a team introduces a new product. However, there are some market segments that would not make sense to introduce a new product. Introducing a new Low End product would not be good because customers for this segment want products that are about seven years old. It would be better to convert an aging Traditional product to a Low End product and introduce a new Traditional product. It also does not make to add a new Performance product because it is very expensive and customers are somewhat price sensitive so maintaining a good profit margin is very difficult. It would make better sense to convert a Performance product into a High End product because the profit margins are better and you can cut costs by have very similar products. The only two segments that would be good to introduce a totally new product would be in Traditional and Size. Capital Requirements: In Capsim no team is barred from entry because they are already established in all five market segments. Although the costs are high any team can easily add a new product in any of the five segments. It does not even matter if the team has the capital because they would be granted an emergency loan from Big Al. This would be a smart simulation strategy but it is entirely possible. Economies of Scale: We do see economies of scale because as production volume increases the per unit costs can be decreased by increasing automation, by increasing customer awareness and accessibility with effective spending in Promo and Sales Budget, and by investing heavily in Process Management Initiatives until maximum benefits are reached. Product Differentiation: Significant product differentiation is not possible in this simulation, only minor differentiation is achievable. The teams that figure out how to properly position their product’s, make accurate production forecasts, and price correctly for each segment will gain a slight advantage. Switching Costs: Switching costs are low for our buyers. Brand Identity: Brand Identity can be assessed by looking at the customer survey scores each year in the Courier. Access to Distribution Channels: Each team potentially has the same access to distribution channels. Monitoring accessibility and awareness in the Courier allow each team to see how their efforts are paying off. Promise of Aggressive Retaliation: The threat of retaliation can only be accomplished here by lowering price. This tactic is only effective in the Low End and Traditional market segments. In the High End, Size, and Performance segments, price cutting will have a negative effect on sales. Bargaining Power of Buyers: - Medium If industry demand is greater than what is produced the bargaining power of buyer’s decreases because these products are critical to their operations. If there is an oversupply of products in the market then the bargaining power is with the buyers. Also, if products do not meet buyer’s specifications they will not buy the product and will go to another company that meets their product requirements. Buyer Knowledge: Limited due to the complexity of our products. Buyers have little time or ability to compare our products to other products. Purchase Size: We are not able to see individual company purchases. Product Function: A sensor that is used in many technology products. Concentration of Buyers: Erie sells sensors that are used in thousands of products sold by hundreds of companies. Undifferentiated Products: Our products are undifferentiated. Buyer Entry into the Industry: N/A Bargaining Power of Suppliers: - Medium Erie is dependent on labor in order for products to be built and to be delivered to the market. Labor negotiations are an important part of our business. The unions supply the labor and if they don’t like the offers they can just go to another company that is paying better pay/benefits in the market. If demands aren’t met and somewhat exceeded productivity can fall, employee turnover rate is higher, and productivity falls. Therefore, bargaining power of our suppliers can be quite high. Products Crucial to Buyer: Plant & Equipment. Products with High Switching Costs: None. High Supplier Concentration: Yes, there aren’t multiple unions to choose from. Suppliers’ Ability to Enter the Buying Industry: N/A Intensity of Rivalry in the Industry: - High Although there is no threat of new entrants, rivalry is very intense because this is a competition therefore collusion does not exist. Competitors have little opportunity to differentiate their sensors from the competition. Teams that are operating at a loss continue to be a fierce competitor because they have the ability to steal a large market share. Industry Leader: At this point Erie and Ferris are the industry leaders if we use the Balanced Scorecard as an indicator. If you look at other figures such as sales it would not be so clear who the leaders are. In the real world team Andrews would probably have already been bought out or declared bankruptcy. Number of Competitors: The number of competitors does not play a role in rivalry intensity here because the number cannot change. Fixed Costs: There are relatively high fixed costs and even though these costs can be lowered over time the price that customers are willing to pay continues to fall each year. Price cutting in Capsim causes profitability to fall for all teams but profitability falls most for the team doing the price cutting because profit margins are very slim. Exit Barriers: Teams in Capsim cannot leave the industry so exit they can only leave market segments and barriers to exiting a segment are very low. This would briefly decrease competition in that market segment. As soon as the remaining teams increased capacity, intense rivalry would resume. Product Differentiation: Product differentiation in Capsim is very limited so profitability remains relatively low. Each team has access to the same industry information so each team is trying meet the specification demands of the customers as closely as they can. Slow Growth: Growth is high in the Sensor industry. Our industry has very high opportunity to generate large profits and sales. Threat of Substitutes: - None There is no threat of substitutes. There can be no more and no less than the six OEM sensor manufacturers that presently exist in this industry.