Download SHAPING THE NEW EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY MAP

*
Dr. Constantinos Filis
Research Director
Institute of International Relations
Panteion University
*
*Arab uprisings
*Discovery of hydrocarbons
*Economic Crisis in the European south
*Civil war in Syria and repercussions for
the wider
region
*Migration flows
*Egypt and Turkey redefining positions, as is Israel,
which has lost the two constants in its foreign policy
*Hopes for de-escalation following U.S. moves to
close fronts
*
*Freezing of Nabucco
*Reservations regarding South Stream
*Scepticism regarding the use of nuclear energy
*Provision of limited quantities from Azerbaijan
*Turkmenistan’s orientation towards Eastern markets
+
instability in Iraq + isolation of Iran
*Russian shift towards China and the Asian market
*European market dependency on imported gas at 83% in
2035. Annual supply-demand discrepancy of over 40
BCM in 2030
*
*Energy
can be rendered a tool for stability and
prosperity. Usually, however, it is a means for
exerting influence – and even political coercion
*The
recent energy finds may not resolve
longstanding disputes, but they will create a more
favorable environment for reducing tensions, thanks
mainly to shared economic interests
*
*The
energy market seeks credibility and predictability.
Policies in the direction of proposals that are inclusive,
rather than limiting potential synergies
* As
production and export moves ahead, getting involved
will become more alluring for more states
* The
more pluralistic regional alliances are, the more
difficult it will be for anyone to attempt to call the energy
status quo into question
*Pivotal
player in the resolution of the Cyprus
problem
*Should
Ankara promote the idea of partitioning
(plan B, as Ankara has leaked), it will find it
difficult to explain to the Turkish Cypriots their
exclusion from the benefits of energy exploitation
*Large and thirsty market – potential importer
*Not a particularly attractive option for transit
country
*
*Exploit its European identity
*Responsible and trusted
*Initiatives for wider synergies
*European presidency presents an opportunity
*Coordination, but not necessarily identification,
with Cyprus
*Need for a balanced regional policy
*
*Europe
has to point up the importance/meaning of
security of supply. The Eastern Mediterranean offers
diversification of suppliers and transit countries.
*Cyprus
and
Greece
preparations/procedures
*If
at
the
center
of
distressed societies are offered a realistic prospect,
leaderships will be pressured to compromise. The latter
will buy time and stability at home, as their economies
are on the verge of default
*
*
* ‘Chicken or the egg’ dilemma
* Does resolution precede exploitation
of resources, or
will exploitation bring stability and peace?
* Time factor
* Competition from other regions + forms of energy
* Time for complete resolution of problems before
moving ahead with production is a luxury we don’t
have
* Energy
will be the catalyst for realization of the
cooperation imperative, and it will engender regional
synergies