Download Setting the Scene

Global Climate Change/Disruption:
An Update
Science Week August 2014
Barney Foran: research fellow
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1950
1960
1970
1980
1,000 met stations
Satellites, heat islands++
Baseline 1951-1980
+0.6 degrees C
1990
2000
2010
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
2011
2012
2013
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But wait: We have a theory
A hundred years ago, Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius asked the
important question “Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way
influenced by the presence of the heat-absorbing gases in the atmosphere?”
He went on to become the first person to investigate the effect that doubling
atmospheric carbon dioxide would have on global climate. The question was
debated throughout the early part of the 20th century and is still a main
concern of Earth scientists today.
It is important to note that Arrhenius
was not very concerned with rising
carbon dioxide levels at the time, but
rather was attempting to find an
explanation for high latitude
temperature changes that could be
attributed to the onset of the ice ages
and interglacial periods.
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Other Atmospheric Theories: The Ozone Hole
1987
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Climate change institutions: The IPCC +++++
Evidence
Stopping it
Adapting
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The Global Warming Crisis Is Over
Here is what the scientists found:
 There is no scientific consensus on the human
role in climate change.
 Future warming due to human greenhouse
gases will likely be much less than IPCC
forecasts.
 Carbon dioxide has not caused weather to
become more extreme, polar ice and sea ice to
melt, or sea level rise to accelerate. These were
all false alarms.
 The likely benefits of man-made global
warming exceed the likely costs.
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
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Where does all the heat come from ?
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Where does all the heat go?
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Climate versus weather
Early 1900’s
Early 2000’s
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Climate versus weather
Monthly maximums
BOM State of Climate 2014
Monthly minimums
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Climate versus weather
BOM State of Climate 2014
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Climate versus weather
BOM State of Climate 2014
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Climate versus weather
Rain now falls
off shore
2 desalination
plants required
BOM State of Climate 2014
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Regional ‘downscaled’ analyses
Spring rainfall
Spring temperature
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Why are
we
worried?
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You may want to question:
• population growth
• economic growth
• efficiency measures
• globalisation
• ‘shopping’ as a pastime
• free trade agreements
• poor regulatory hurdles
• carbon taxes and decarbonisation
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