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THE ROLE OF PUBLIC CHOICE
CONSIDERATIONS
IN NORMATIVE PUBLIC ECONOMICS
BY
ROBIN BOADWAY
QUEEN’S UNIVERSITY
KINGSTON, CANADA
This paper was prepared for the 57th Congress of the International Institute of Public
Finance on ‘The Role of Political Economy in the Theory and Practice of Public
Finance’, Linz, Austria, August 27-30, 2001. Nicolas Marceau, Gordon Myers and
Motohiro Sato have provided many helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper.
They do not necessarily share all the views put forward.
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC CHOICE CONSIDERATIONS
IN NORMATIVE PUBLIC ECONOMICS
by
Robin Boadway
Queen’s University, Canada
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
The topic of this session is a daunting one—to contemplate to what extent public choice
or political economy considerations ought to be taken into account in normative public
economic analysis.
In particular, should the prescriptions obtained from normative
analysis be constrained by considerations of political feasibility?
The issue is of
fundamental importance for the formulation and execution of economic policy, which is
necessarily a prescriptive exercise with normative content. To put my cards on the table
at the outset, my view is that, with some exceptions, political feasibility considerations
should generally not constrain policy analysis and advice, at least by non-partisan
economists. My purpose is to explain, if not to convince, readers why I hold that view. I
hope that at least readers will find the position to be provocative and one that stimulates
debate even if it is not found to be persuasive.
The term ‘normative approach’ is a very general one and can be used for many
purposes. It is useful to distinguish two broad ones at the outset. Normative analysis can
be used for evaluative or for prescriptive purposes. In the former case, one is evaluating
the normative properties of actual or potential outcomes, outcomes that may well be the
consequence of collective choice processes.
In the second case, one is actually
prescribing or recommending courses of action as an input to collective choice process.
This paper is primarily directed to the prescriptive use of normative public economic
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analysis.
It is in this case that the role of political economy constraints is the most
relevant.
Of course, the normative content of public economic analysis is basically the
same whether the purpose is evaluative or prescriptive.
will apply to either.
Thus, much of our discussion
But, it seems inherently less controversial to ignore political
economy considerations in evaluating outcomes than in prescribing policy.
be controversial is the evaluative exercise itself.
What might
There are economists who completely
eschew normative analysis, and who view the scientific role of economics to be purely
positive.
This is in fact a difficult position to maintain in practice, since it would imply
that even seemingly innocuous statements about the benefits of free markets could not be
advocated.
Thus, we take it as given at the outset that normative analysis has a
legitimate, and indeed necessary, role to play in the economic policy process. The issue
is whether and how political feasibility should play a part.
The paper proceeds as follows. To put matters in context, it is useful to begin
with an overview of the key ingredients and methodology of the normative approach. In
fact, they are not as far from the concerns of public choice as is sometimes depicted.
Next, we summarize some problems facing the normative approach. Then we turn to the
question of what and when public choice considerations ought to condition normative
analysis.
This will involve both matters of principle—why in principle public choice
considerations should not be treated as a constraint on normative analysis—and matters
of practicality—why public choice considerations are not in a position to be used as
constraints.
The latter involves essentially a brief critique of public choice or political
economy as it has developed to date.
It should be stressed at the outset that, although this paper is focused mainly on
the normative approach, nothing in it should be taken to suggest that the normative
approach has a monopoly on being the correct one. Normative and positive approaches
to
collective
decision-making and the analysis of economic policy issues are
complementary. Neither one rules out, or is more legitimate, than the other. The only
concern is with defending at least one approach to normative analysis, one that explicitly
ignores political feasibility constraints in prescriptive analysis.
This involves thinking g
about when and how the descriptive should influence the prescriptive. Indeed, the issue
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could fruitfully be put the other way as well: when and how should normative principles
be used to judge positive outcomes?
PRINCIPLES OF NORMATIVE PUBLIC ECONOMICS
The ultimate purpose of much normative public sector analysis is prescriptive: what are
good policies or good reforms?
Normative analysis can serve a policy evaluation
purpose and an advisory purpose, and can have a real impact on actual collective
decision-making. It is therefore important to be clear about what it involves.
There are three ingredients that go into normative analysis. The first is a presumption
about how a decentralized market economy functions, and its formalization in demand
and supply functions, profit functions, and indirect utility functions.
This ingredient is
essentially a positive one, at least insofar as indirect utility functions simply reflect
revealed preference and not social weights.
Impediments to the functioning of markets
may be important, such as monopoly, unions, free riding, and market imperfections due
to uncertainty and information, and coordination failures.
behaviour may be relevant.
Moreover, non-rational
But, in general, there seems to be broad consensus in the
profession about how markets operate and when they fail, although refinements are
continually being discovered, as exemplified in the enormous literature on the so-called
New Institutional Economics recently surveyed in the Journal of Economics Literature
by Oliver Williamson. This might be contrasted with the case of political markets, where
much less consensus exists with respect to their functioning. This may simply reflect the
earlier stage of development of their study.
The second ingredient used in normative analysis is the set of constraints facing the
analyst. These can be classified into three types. The first are the constraints imposed by
the availability of existing technology.
These will already be reflected in the excess
demand functions mentioned above that describe the functioning of the market economy.
The second type of constraint involves resource balance.
These are captured in the
market clearing conditions that apply in equilibrium, taking due account of any
endogeneity of resource supplies over time.
information.
The third type of constraint involves
As mentioned, there may be imperfect information in the private sector,
which will be reflected in market outcomes. But, the government may be ill informed in
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many ways as well, and this can impede the range of policy prescriptions that can be
implemented.
They have imperfect information about household preferences (and thus
market responses) especially where these vary across households, about household
abilities, about non-market activities, and about the extent of illegal or underground
behaviour. These are important constraints on policy prescription, and can lead to quite
different ones than in a first-best world of full information.
Thus, the set of feasible
points along the economy’s relevant utility possibilities frontier (UPF) can differ
considerably among the first best, the second best when only incomes are observable, and
the third best when even incomes can be misreported to evade taxes.
Indeed, much
modern normative public economics is driven by characterizing second-best or nth-best
policies in a world constrained by imperfect information of various sorts, and as an
extension, to searching for ways to reduce informational constraints by monitoring,
penalizing illegal behaviour, and so on. Our purpose in this paper is to consider whether
political economy constraints should play a similar role to informational constraints:
Should policy advice be constrained to be politically feasible as well as informationally
feasible?
Third, and most controversially, normative analysis and policy prescription requires
objectives, and these necessarily involve at least minimal value judgments. Some value
judgments commonly used in prescriptive analysis are relatively non-controversial for
standard purposes (and many even creep into the public choice literature).
include
those
that
underlie
conventional
social
welfare
functions
Examples
(SWFs):
a)
individualism (that household preferences ought to be respected), b) anonymity (that all
households be given equal weight in the objective function regardless of their
identification), c) symmetry (that the SWF be symmetric in utilities), d) the Pareto
principle (that the SWF be increasing in individual utilities). Taken together, these result
in the notion of welfarism, which forms the basis for Bergson-Samuelson SWFs. These
value judgments alone are sufficient for giving normative significant to economically
efficient outcomes (points along the UPF), and some useful prescriptive properties of
policies require only that. For example, the so-called ‘production efficiency theorem’ of
Diamond and Mirrlees relies only on them, as do shadow prices for project evaluation in
a small open economy.
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However, in general, we cannot get very far with policy prescriptions that are based
on efficiency alone, especially in a second-best world where the Second Theorem of
Welfare Economics fails.
That is, we simply cannot separate efficiency from equity
considerations, and pursue the Musgravian strategy of providing advice on efficient
policies so as to get to the UPF, while leaving it to some other unspecified process for
choosing the appropriate point along the UPF.
More important, many policies are
explicitly redistributive in nature, to an extent that we economists are not always willing
to acknowledge. In fact, is can be argued that governments are not primarily involved in
exploiting gains from trade arising from free riding and market failure. Instead, like it or
not, government is primarily an institution for redistribution.
This redistribution occurs
in many dimensions, including through equalizing outcomes, equalizing opportunities,
and providing social insurance. For prescriptive purpose, we need a means of evaluating
these policies, and that inevitably involves making interpersonal welfare comparisons, if
only implicitly.
Interpersonal Welfare Comparisons
More generally, as the welfare economics literature has made clear, interpersonal
comparisons are mandatory for policy prescriptions of all sorts, not just those with
explicit redistributive intent. In a second-best setting, all policies—even those with
efficiency objectives—have gainers and losers, and it is impossible to avoid taking
account of that somehow. There have been many attempts to get around that problem
and to focus on the efficiency effects of policies to avoid interpersonal comparisons of
welfare, but all have been bound to fail.
Appealing to the various compensation tests,
such as those proposed by Kaldor, Hicks, Scitovsky or Samuelson does not work, even if
one accepts the demanding value judgment involved in the hypothetical compensation
principle.
Adopting the Harberger dictum that ‘a dollar is a dollar’—or a ‘euro is a
euro’—implies a rather peculiar implicit SWF that is additive and linear in money metric
utility, which is unlikely to generate much ethical consensus.
The more appealing
Musgrave approach of leaving redistribution to the so-called Distributive Branch of
government fails demonstrably in a second-best world, essentially because the failure of
the Second Theorem means the Distributive Branch cannot do its job.
In effect, the
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Distribution and Allocation functions of government are inextricably intertwined.
Thus,
explicit interpersonal comparisons are necessary, and public choice is not likely to be
particularly helpful in avoiding that. Indeed, part of what normative economists do is to
inform the political process with respect to interpersonal welfare judgments and their
consequences for policy.
The argument that interpersonal comparisons of welfare cannot in principle be
avoided is a rather important one, and one that we often honour in the breach. Major
policy prescriptions like free trade, tax reform, competition policy, unemployment
insurance, and so on, are typically proposed by economists on the basis of efficiency
arguments. As a matter of principle, such advice is potentially incomplete if it does not
take account of the redistributive impacts that these policies necessarily have. That is not
to say that as a matter of expediency those in government ought to use distributive
weights as a matter of course.
But those of us in the academic business of normative
policy prescription and evaluation cannot assume that the concept of efficiency is a
sufficient concept for normative analysis. Put another way, in a second-best world, given
the failures of the First and Second Best Theorems of Welfare Economics, market prices
do not have the normative content that is often attributed to them. They do not reflect
shadow values as in a first-best world.
In fact, the sort of interpersonal judgments that are involved in standard normative
analysis are often not that controversial, and might enjoy a fair amount of consensus. At
least, they do among practitioners of normative analysis.
In the context of welfaristic
objectives (of which, more will be said below), many of the most important qualitative
policy prescriptions found in the normative literature—those emanating from the optimal
income tax literature—require only a non-negative aversion to inequality.
This
assumption alone, which one expects would command fairly widespread support, narrows
down the range of outcomes on the second-best UPF considerably: all those between the
utilitarian outcome and the Rawlsian outcome would be included.
Although this seems
like a wide range, the qualitative features of the solutions are quite similar, and distinct
from those in the other range of the second-best UPF. Moreover, the degree of aversion
to inequality can be readily parameterized, and policy proposals can be posed in such a
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way that allows decision-makers to see the implications of different degrees of aversion
to inequality.
PROBLEMS FOR NORMATIVE PUBLIC ECONOMICS
Normative analysis, like positive analysis and public choice, is obviously constantly
developing. It is in a constant process of evolution as new problems come to light, and
new interpretations are found.
Let me highlight what at this stage of development seem
to me to be some of the main conceptual problems facing normative public economics.
The Need For Value Judgments
As mentioned, prescriptive analysis cannot be done without value judgment. As
mentioned, almost all policy evaluation requires interpersonal welfare comparisons
implicitly or explicitly.
There is no natural or scientific way to choose among value
judgments, and we know from public choice theory that societal consensus will almost
certainly be difficult to achieve.
Progress will be made into ways of formulating
interpersonal welfare comparisons, developing new insights from them, and studying
their implications for policy. Indeed, that is one dimension of normative policy analysis.
It is apparent that the analyst must choose his/her own value judgments, presumably
reasonable ones, make them explicit, argue for them, and be accountable for them. In the
end, the decision-maker must have a normative basis for choosing among options.
Non-Welfaristic Objectives
Normative public economics continually strives to clarify value judgments and discover
new ones.
In recent years, there has been growing emphasis on non-welfaristic
objectives. These include notions such as equality of opportunity and capability, fairness,
poverty alleviation.
This poses challenges in its own right not just in the value judgment
associated with the objective itself and the fact that a different dimension of interpersonal
comparisons are necessary, but also because welfaristic and non-welfaristic objectives are
typically in conflict as the social choice literature has convincingly shown.
this conflict itself involves a value judgment.
Resolving
Nonetheless, such conflicts among
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objectives must be resolved: it is not enough for policy purposes to simply show the
impossibility of satisfying two conflicting objectives, as is often the focus in the social
choice literature.
Normative analysts are in a good position both to pose the ethical
issues involved, and to suggest ways to the political process of resolving them. What
should be noted is the role that normative analysis plays vis-B-vis the political process. It
poses, discovers and clarifies objectives as well as ways of achieving them and in so
doing informs collective decision-making.
Differences In Preferences
If the economy consists of households who have identical preferences (as in the standard
optimal income tax world), non-negative aversion to inequality provides a natural and
reasonably acceptable interpersonal value judgment to adopt.
differ, things are much more difficult.
However, if preferences
There is no natural way to compare persons with,
say, different tastes for leisure. Nor is it clear what political economy can contribute to
that. Different parts of the literature have adopted different assumptions. For example,
some economists hold that differences in preferences should not count in policy analysis,
and households should be compensated only for differences in their ability to generate
incomes.
Others hold that the decision-maker must explicitly compare the welfare of
those with high and low tastes for leisure, even if they have the same income-earning
ability. But perhaps the greatest contribution of the literature is to analyze systematically
the ethical issues involved and the consequences of adopting alternative ethical stances.
Adopting a particular ethical perspective in one’s research is necessary, given that some
value judgment must be made in order to offer policy prescriptions.
Given that, it is
obviously important to be forthright about one’s ethical choices.
Irrational Behaviour
Various forms of ‘irrational behaviour’ emphasized recently in the behavioural
economics literature pose an even greater challenge for normative economics. Examples
include
addiction,
myopia,
hyperbolic
discounting,
misjudging
irrational decision-making because of mental illness or age.
odds,
and
simply
Addressing these issues
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would seem to challenge the fundamental norm of individuality by having the state adopt
paternalistic policies.
Inter-Generational Issues
Taking account of the interests of future generations is also a challenge, quite apart from
the fact that the future is unpredictable.
There is presumably a tendency for political
processes (as well as many economic analyses) to put relatively high weight on the utility
of the current generations (including their altruistic urges).
The normative analyst would
feel free to adopt alternative ethical principles with respect to the well being of future
generations.
Time Inconsistency
One of the biggest challenges to normative welfare economics comes from the fact that in
a second-best inter-temporal setting, second-best policies of well-intentioned, benevolent
and ‘rational’ governments can be time inconsistent.
Unless governments are somehow
able to commit to pre-announced second-best optimal policies, the best they can do is to
implement time-consistent ones, which are necessarily welfare-inferior to second-best
ones. The consequences of this can be devastating for the quality of outcomes.
For
example, in some circumstances, well-meaning time-consistent government intervention
can actually be Pareto inferior to the laissez faire.
Taking time inconsistency into
account leads to some reasonably strong prescriptive advice.
For example, mandatory
pensions, investment and savings subsidies, education policies, and various forms of
social insurance can have as part of their rationale the undoing of the consequences of
time-consistent government policies. It seems clear that this type of constraint is one that
normative analysts should—and do—take into account.
Does this amount to accepting political economy considerations as a constraint?
After all, time inconsistency is a result of governmental political choice that renders
second-best optimal policies infeasible.
Although it is partly a matter of semantics, I
would argue that time-inconsistency considerations do not represent public choice
constraints in the usual sense of ruling out options that are not politically feasible.
The
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genesis of time-inconsistency is the timing of the implementation of decisions and the
inability of governments to commit in advance.
The problem applies even when
governments are fully benevolent and rational, and do not rule out any option, including
second-best policies.
However, the constraint imposed by time-inconsistent government behaviour
provides us with a natural lead-in to the main concern of this session, and that is: when
should normative public economics take account of public choice considerations?
POLITICAL FEASIBILITY AS A CONSTRAINT ON NORMATIVE
ANALYSIS?
Political economy analysis is very much the fashion nowadays. It might seem natural to
many economists that political feasibility should play an important role in normative
policy analysis.
After all, if optimal policies are not feasible, what is the point of
recommending them?
Moreover, recommendations that do not pass the political
feasibility test run the risk of being discounted, and not being taken seriously. It seems
clear that such reasoning does colour much policy advice. I can certainly think of many
instances in my own country when political feasibility has been allowed to overrule what
could be considered on normative grounds good policy advice. Examples that come to
mind are the reform of business taxes (where proponents have strived to ensure that the
number of losers is minimized), reforming health care (where it is taken as a matter of
faith that any attempt to introduce pricing into the system will cause the edifice of public
health insurance to fall down), or targeting of universal social programs (where it is
assumed that the middle classes will not agree to lose their entitlements).
Reinforcing
this is the fact that there have been instances in the past where good policy advice was
simply not acted on by the political system (proposals for a guaranteed annual income, or
for introducing some actuarial principles into unemployment insurance).
At the same
time, there have been some instances in which good policy advice persuaded
governments to undertake reforms that many might have considered to be politically
infeasible.
A good example of this is free trade, which, until a high-profile advisory
commission advocated it, was considered to be politically impossible.
Another example
was the introduction of a federal value-added tax, despite its political unpopularity. Thus,
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from a purely empirical point of view, it does not seem clear that political feasibility is
anywhere near a binding a constraint. (It should be acknowledged that the political party
that introduced both free trade and the value-added tax was summarily dismissed from
office shortly thereafter, and lost virtually all their seats.) In some instances, the political
feasibility argument may be used as the scapegoat for choices being driven by decisionmakers’ preferences.
Be that as it may, the position I would like to argue is that, in general, political
feasibility should not be taken into account in pursuing normative prescriptive policy
analysis.
Let me begin by recounting the two main reasons for holding that position—
one a matter of pure principle and the other of practicality—and then discuss some
exceptions to the rule.
Prescriptive Analysis Informs Public Choice, Not Vice Versa
The first reason for ignoring political feasibility constraints in normative public
economics is based simply on the notion that the ultimate purpose of normative analysis
is to inform the policy process in its task of choosing among options, and perhaps to
persuade it of a preferred alternative. As a matter of principle, it seems inconsistent to
rule out on a priori grounds options that are normatively superior simply on the basis of a
perception that the policy process itself will choose not to adopt them.
That seems
incompatible with the notion of an economist as a professional social scientist.
To put the matter slightly differently, political feasibility constraints are
qualitatively different from technology, resource and information constraints.
Political
feasibility does not reflect a set of circumstances that are deterministic or exogenous to
the decision-maker, but rather the consequences of the choice process itself, albeit a
political choice process. The purpose of normative analysis is itself to assist in the taking
of collective decisions, to persuade and inform policy-makers, and to bring expert
analysis to bear to clarify the ethical nature of the choices to be made, not to obfuscate
them.
This point of view may seem radical since it contravenes the positivist strain of
thinking that has been particularly prevalent in the Anglo-Saxon economic tradition.
This strain holds that economics is analogous to a science, and that as such all
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propositions must be empirically verifiable.
Unfortunately, a purely positive approach to
economics is untenable from a policy point of view. As we stressed earlier, prescriptive
policy advice—which is the raison d’Ltre of normative public economics—cannot be
purely positive.
It necessarily involves some value judgments, including especially
interpersonal comparisons of well-being.
That is not to say that prescriptive analysis is
not scientifically valid. On the contrary, it is entirely syllogistic in its nature.
And, it is
based on the same kind of analysis of private markets that is used in purely positive
analysis.
I would further argue, somewhat more controversially, that to constrain
prescriptive analysis by what is politically feasible is to bias it in favour of existing
stakeholders (i.e. property owners), and to make it more politically conservative than is
necessary on ethical grounds. Existing property owners are, after all, the ones with the
money, and therefore often the ones with the political power. It can be argued that this
consequence of the positivist tradition, along with an ethical presumption in favour of the
inviolability of property rights, has influenced public choice theory heavily.
The result
has been a serious philosophical rift between normative public economics and public
choice, a rift that is fairly clearly reflected in the literature and no doubt motivates the
need for symposia such as these.
As evidence for this, one need look no further than Buchanan and Tullock’s 1962
classic Calculus of Consent, which I think we can all agree has been extremely
influential.
The core viewpoint of this book is that collective choice exists primarily to
exploit the gains from trade that remain unexploited because of the free-rider problem.
The possibility of inter-personal redistribution is treated a potential ‘cost’ of the political
process rather than a social end in its own right. The ideal social choice procedure would
be unanimity—which is as conservative as it gets—but transaction costs unfortunately
preclude that. The optimal size of majority needed to take collective decisions is said to
reflect the trade-off between these transactions costs and the costs associated with
redistribution (i.e. the fact that one may end up more or less arbitrarily on the wrong side
of redistribution decisions).
This thinly veiled apology for the ultimate primacy of existing property rights is
itself necessarily incomplete as an ethical norm against which to judge collective choice.
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For one thing, the market value of property rights (i.e. prices) has no compelling ethical
meaning: the wage one receives for one’s labour is determined solely by the relevant
excess demand function for the particular society one happens to find themselves in, not
by any higher ethical evaluation. For another, there is no basis for determining how to
share the presumably sizeable gains that are achieved by collective action, and even a
perfectly functioning unanimous voting procedure B la Wicksell would be unable to
prescribe one.
Finally, even from a positivist point of view, the Buchanan-Tullock approach to
collective decision-making is far from persuasive.
It belies the fact that most of what
government does is redistributive in nature and intent, so much so that the redistributive
element seems to dominate the gains from trade element.
Perhaps this strain of public
choice analysis is not positivistic at all. A better, though perhaps unfair, interpretation is
that it is every bit as normative as conventional normative public economics.
Its
intention is to persuade us of its own ethical position, which is that the sanctity of
property rights is the ultimate ethical principle that should guide public policy, as vague
as that principle might be.
In fact, it can be argued somewhat provocatively that public choice practitioners
in the Buchanan-Tullock tradition do not feel constrained to take political feasibility into
account in their analyses. Nor do those conventional economic policy analysts who treat
‘a euro as a euro’ in the fictitious pursuit of efficient economic policies. There seems to
be no compelling argument therefore to require normative public economics to take
political feasibility into account, except perhaps as a hidden way of given extra weight to
the most powerful stakeholders in the political system, that is, those with the property
rights to protect.
What Political Feasibility Constraint?
The second argument for ignoring political feasibility constraints is a more practical one.
We know too little about political processes to be able to constrain prescriptive analysis
by what is feasible, especially since prescriptive analysis is itself intended to persuade
and influence policy-makers.
There is a reasonable amount of consensus on the other
constraints used in normative public economics, conceptually if not in detail. Economists
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agree with the general way in which markets operate, and with the resource constraints
that policy-makers face. Even here, though, our knowledge of the actual responsiveness
of markets to exogenous changes in prices, incomes and policies is quite sparse.
As
well, informational constraints are reasonably well understood, although the literature is
in a constant state of evolution.
being refined regularly.
analysis
since
the
The kinds of information constraints being applied are
This in itself is a problem for normative public economic
policy
prescriptions
can
assumptions about the government’s information.
differ
considerably
under
different
That alone should make us cautious
about the prescriptions that we advocate, but it should also make the process of research
itself very worthwhile and rewarding.
Political constraints are, however, inherently more impractical than technological,
resource and information constraints. Some of the reasons are as follows.
Complexity and Unpredictability
Outcomes of political processes are inherently complicated and unpredictable.
They are
the outcomes of many levels of decision-making most of which are not subject to the
same kind of discipline as the profit motive in the private sector.
Intangibles like
leadership, the power of persuasion and the charisma of certain personalities can affect
the outcome.
There are certainly lots of examples of changes in policy regimes that
would have been very hard to predict. Had economists restricted their policy advice to
those policies that were deemed to be politically feasible, they may well have ruled out
superior options that might have been accepted, and have skewed others in order to make
them politically palatable.
It seems to me that given the complexity of political
processes, it is not clear than any manageable political economy model can capture the
intricacies and nuances of real-world political decision-making.
Given this, it is not surprising that there is scarcely any literature that attempts to
incorporate political constraints in any meaningful way into prescriptive analysis.
Those
contributions that do take political feasibility into account tend to use very simple public
choice mechanisms, such as median voter models or Leviathan models. Interestingly, the
most common examples of the use of political constraints involve their role in
determining constitutional or political decision-making arrangements themselves.
Thus,
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political economy considerations are sometimes used as an argument for decentralizing
government
decision-making or imposing constitutional constraints on government
discretion. We return to this important issue below.
It might be objected that market processes are complicated as well, yet we accept
them as constraints on public decision-making.
However, there is a fundamental
difference between market processes and political ones that make the use of market
constraints much easier to apply.
Although market processes involve the interaction of
the decisions of millions of private decision-makers, market mechanisms serve as a
coordinating device that allows us to characterize the outcomes in prices and excess
demand functions. At least as a first approximation, this allows us to take into account
the constraints imposed by markets in a reasonably satisfactory way, at least
conceptually.
No such decentralization result applies to political processes, even though
we might adopt market terminology to the political marketplace
Determinism and Rationality
A further, related reason why political economy models are not suitable as constraints for
prescriptive analysis is that they are typically deterministic and based on highly informed
voters and political decision-makers. Once the objectives of political decision-makers are
specified (e.g. vote maximization), and the technology for turning policies into outcomes
postulated, simple game theory takes over and determines and outcome (assuming it is
unique). One party or candidate is destined to win, and policies are fully specified. It
seems there is no room for prescriptive choice and no room for political expertise or
advice (such as an economist might give). These features of political models, which are a
consequence of treating the political process as a form of political market analogous to an
economic market, have the virtue of simplicity.
However, it is not clear that they are
realistic.
In models of the market economy, we might get away with assuming a high
degree of rationality by decentralized decision-makers because of the information that
market prices conveys.
device exists.
In public choice models, no such information-economizing
The complexity of virtually all policy instruments makes outcomes
inherently uncertain, and ensures that some citizens—the experts—are better informed
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than others.
Political party platforms and ideologies are typically posed in terms of
general policies or principles.
Actual policies are the outcome of much more detailed
analysis and advice, some of which comes from normative public economic analysis
itself.
A further problem related to the deterministic nature of public choice equilibria is
that outcomes in these public choice models are not only efficient (as in many models of
party competition), but the allocations they choose on the UPF are simply dictated by the
political mechanism.
Far from acting as a constraint on normative analysis, the process
dictates the outcome! There is no room whatsoever for prescription, which seems to me
to be hardly a stylized feature that we want to use to characterize political economy
models.
It is not at all clear how to get out of this box of the political feasibility
constraint wagging the prescriptive dog.
Dropping the political feasibility constraint is
one sure way to do so.
Cycling/Instability
There is a further modeling difficulty that is endemic to virtually all public
choice/political economy models, and that concerns the dictates imposed by the Arrow
Impossibility Theorem.
Even if one accepts the rationality, determinism, and
predictability features of these models, they fail to get around the problems of cycling
and instability that constitute the most fundamental problem of collective decisionmaking in democratic societies.
This is particularly relevant given our observation that
much of what governments do in the economic policy sphere is redistributive in nature.
To make the argument more concrete, consider the two main models currently
used as models of public choice—party competition models and citizen candidate
models.
Party Competition Models
These models draw on the insight of Downs that political parties exist to trade off the
conflicting interests of the citizens, and many of the characterizing features of these
models can indeed be found in Downs’ definitive (1958) study An Economic Theory of
Democracy.
In Downs, political parties were decision-makers whose objective was to
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maximize votes. More recent models, such as those by Dixit and Londregan, have made
the objective function of parties somewhat richer by allowing for an ideological
component.
In these models, there are two closely related ways in which a unique
deterministic interior solution is obtained.
In one version—the probabilistic voting
variant—there is uncertainty about how voters will respond to policies because of some
uncertainty inherent in voters’ preferences.
In the other version—the ideological
attachment variant—voters of any observable class (e.g. income class) are distributed
according to their exogenous ideological preferences for one party over the other.
In
either case, political parties cannot target policies (e.g. transfers) to individuals perfectly.
These models essentially avoid cycling by assumption.
The assumed extent of
uncertainty of voter responses or of the distribution of ideological preferences implies
that the function relating expected votes to policies is strictly concave.
For example, a
party can always attract a few more votes from one group by increasing its transfer to
them at the expense of losing a few votes to another group by reducing its transfer to
them. The optimal policy is one that ensures that at the margin for all income groups, the
incremental benefit in terms of votes from the last euro transferred is the same.
Given
that voting functions for all groups are concave, there will be a unique vote-maximizing
platform for each party given the platform of the other party. This, in turn implies that
there will be a unique Nash equilibrium in party platforms.
The problem with this model, as Dan Usher has shown by example in a recent
article in the Canadian Journal of Economics, is that voting functions are not likely to be
concave in a world in which governments are engaging in redistribution (i.e. in most
party competition models in the literature, as well as the real world). Concavity of voting
functions requires that voter uncertainty or party attachment have to be strong enough
that there will be at least some voters in a given income class that continue to vote for a
party no matter how adverse their treatment by the party platform.
It might be more
realistic to assume that once the transfer offered by a party to a given group is low
enough, no voters of that group will vote for the party. Once that point is reached, there
is no cost to a vote-maximizing government of reducing the transfer to that group further
in order to increase the transfer, and therefore number of votes, of other groups. Given
that the vote distributions of all groups will be so truncated, the conditions required for an
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interior solution no longer apply, and vote cycling will be the norm. This problem will
apply whether or not it is voter uncertainty or some unspecified party attachment that is at
work. Unless voter distributions are very wide enough, there will be no unique interior
voting equilibrium.
Introducing party ideology considerations into the model, as in Dixit and
Londregan (1998) will mitigate this problem.
Political parties trade off vote
maximization with ideology in their objective functions, and this may preclude them
from exploiting individual groups of voters enough to cause vote cycling.
Such
ideologies are essentially normative objectives, precisely like social welfare functions in
Dixit and Londregan. Thus, political parties are seen as undertaking the kind of analysis
we are eschewing—tempering normative analysis with political considerations, in this
case the effect on votes. I suppose that implies that at least those normative analysts who
advise political parties must necessarily take political consequences into account.
Citizen Candidate Models
Party competition models assume that political parties can commit to pre-announced
political platforms, even those that go against their self-interest or ideology, in order to
get elected. Citizen candidate models, on the other hand, are premised by the notion that
candidates for office cannot pre-commit. Once they are elected, they are bound to do
what is in their own self-interest, and voters know that. This not only tempers the kinds
of policies that are eventually implemented, it also tempers the candidates that choose to
run for office.
Citizen candidates might also avoid the cyclical majority problem, partly by
drastically cutting down on the number of candidates and therefore on the competing
policies.
Indeed, the possibility of equilibrium (perhaps multiple) is an attractive feature
of these models. However, there are a number of drawbacks to the model that make them
ultimately unsuitable for use as a constraint on normative analysis. Three drawbacks are
as follows:
1. The models are inherently implausible as descriptions of actual political decisionmaking.
There is no role for political parties and their platforms, which might
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otherwise be viewed as commitment devices.
At best, citizen candidate models
might be relevant for countries with weak party discipline, such as the USA.
2. Related to the first point, citizen candidate models are essentially models of
elected dictatorship, since they are posed as models in which an individual
politician seeks office and, once elected, carries out those policies that are in his
best interest.
They cannot represent the kind of representative democracy in
which decisions get taken in legislatures.
3. Citizen candidate models do not really get around the problem of vote cycling.
Even if individual candidates cannot commit to policies that are not in their selfinterest, once they are elected on behalf of a particular constituency, they join a
legislative body consisting of elected representatives from other constituencies.
At the stage of decision-making in legislatures, the same kinds of vote cycling
can occur as in standard models of direct democracy
The upshot is that these models would be quite unsuitable as a basis for formulating
political feasibility constraints.
There are, of course, a number of other models in the literature that capture some
features of actual public choice. A popular recent one is the so-called common agency
model that is used to explain the doling out of favours to industry. Although there is no
doubt some truth in them, it is hard to imagine them as determining the kinds of general
policies, especially broad-based redistributive ones, that characterize much economic
policy in industrialized economies. The same applies to models that use rent-seeking and
lobbying as means of explaining the influence of special interests in public choice.
Similarly, models of Leviathan public sectors maximizing their own interest are often
used, sometimes constrained by political feasibility type considerations.
To the extent
that these kinds of models represented reality, there would be little point in using them as
a constraint on normative analysis since they would pre-determine the outcome. Indeed,
normative analysis might actually serve as an intellectual discipline on the Leviathan
tendencies that might otherwise exist in governments.
These criticisms of extant political economy models should not be taken as a
criticism of the methodology of public choice.
There is obvious social value in
understanding how collective decisions are taken, and the fact that there are difficult
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problems that must be resolved makes the quest that much more important. Nor do we
pretend to have an answer to these problems. In particular, the possibility of vote cycling
continues to pose an extremely challenging intellectual problem.
Clearly some societies
have managed to obtain enough of a consensus to function in reasonably stable ways.
How to square that with standard models of public choice remains an important item on
the agenda.
For our purposes, the inability of public choice models to address
satisfactorily the vote cycling problem is simply one of the arguments for pursuing
normative public economic analysis unfettered by political feasibility restrictions.
WHEN PUBLIC CHOICE CONSIDERATIONS CANNOT
BE AVOIDED
Despite the compelling case for pursuing prescriptive analysis without constraining the
prescriptions to be politically feasible, there are some circumstances in which public
choice considerations cannot be avoided. We have already mentioned the case of timeinconsistency, which might be interpreted as a sort of political feasibility constraint,
albeit one that does not arise from standard public choice considerations.
There are,
however, a number of other cases in which the behaviour of government must be taken
into account. Four examples of these are as follows. Three of them involve prescriptions
that involve the mode of government decision-making itself.
Prescribing Institutional Arrangements
In some instances, the choice among policies involves not only the substance of the
policy itself, but also the institutional arrangements for delivering the policy.
One
important example of this concerns the decentralization of decision-making in multi-level
governments.
This is the classic assignment problem in fiscal federalism.
many arguments for decentralizing the provision of public services.
There are
Sub-national
jurisdictions might be better able to cater to local preferences and needs, and might have
better information about local cost conditions.
They might also be better able to
overcome agency problems in the management of public services.
also some political economy considerations.
However, there are
Competition among jurisdictions is alleged
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to affect the cost of delivering public services, and to discipline the bureaucracy.
It is
also said to enhance innovation and to allow for the spreading of best practices through
yardstick competition. It is even said to affect the amount of rent seeking and corruption
that might otherwise occur.
Whether these arguments are compelling or not, it seems
necessary to include them in any prescriptive analysis about decentralization.
An
implication of our agnosticism about the applicability of existing public choice models is
that the outcome of the decentralization debate is bound to be inconclusive.
Similar issues apply with respect to the privatization debate.
Much of the
argument over privatization of key infrastructure industries turns on the (in)efficiency of
the public sector relative to the private sector.
More generally, the role of the private
sector in the delivery of important public services like health and education relies to a
considerable extent on performance of the public sector in delivering these services. The
same might be said even for the collection of taxes and trade duties.
Interjurisdictional Fiscal Arrangements
Related to the above is the design of financial arrangements between levels of
government, given the assignment of functions.
In virtually all systems of multi-level
government, there is a vertical fiscal imbalance, and the higher level exercises some
influence over the lower level through the structure of transfers used to close the
imbalance. Although there are some purely economic arguments that would support such
arrangements, political economy considerations cannot be avoided. Much of the case for
a vertical fiscal imbalance and for central influence is based on notions of fiscal
externalities caused by fiscal decisions of lower-level jurisdictions.
These necessarily
rely on models of the behaviour of governments in which public choice considerations
are invoked.
Constitutional Choice
Perhaps the archetypical example of prescriptive analysis where public choice
considerations cannot be avoided is that of constitutional design. Of course, this is not a
day-to-day decision, and it involves much more than economic analysis.
The
constitutions of many countries have various elements of economic prescription in them.
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Some of them impose constraints on the actions government can take. Examples might
include protection of minorities, non-discrimination, equality rights, and the forbidding of
lower-level government decisions that violate efficiency of the internal common market.
There may even be provisions that require budget balance or impose constitutional limits
on debt financing.
Constitutions also provide for an assignment of functions in a multi-
level government system, and perhaps also on the oversight that one level may have on
another.
Constitutions may even set out principles of economic policy, such as minimal
standards of public services, or broad statements of economic and social rights. Although
these do are typically not binding in a court of law, they nonetheless presumably have
considerable political and moral authority. In some cases, the constitution goes so far as
to oblige governments to undertake some actions.
How one judges the economic content of constitutions presumably reflects one’s
views about the nature of collective decision-making.
Indeed, it would be virtually
impossible to write a constitution without some preconceptions about how governments
are likely to behave—whether they are benevolent or self-seeking in nature, whether they
are likely to be well-informed, whether electoral decision-making is stable or not, and so
on.
Implementation Issues
So far we have construed public choice as being primarily concerned with the collective
choice of public policies by governments. This may be too narrow an interpretation. As
the literature makes clear, public choice might include not just the decisions taken by
legislatures, but also their implementation by the bureaucracy.
In fact, most economic
policies are quite complicated. The efficiency of their implementation relies on the good
management of those who are implementing the policies, and some assurance that the
bureaucracy is acting in the public interest.
inefficiency in the public sector.
In fact, there are lots of opportunities for
There will be standard agency problems at various
levels: between the legislative and executive branches, between various levels of
management in the public sector, and so on.
There will be informational problems.
Those closer to the delivery point of public services or the collection point of taxes will
be better informed about the relevant characteristics of the public they are serving than
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those to whom they are accountable. In fact, professionals in the bureaucracy are likely
to be much better informed about how to design policies to achieve the outcomes desired
by the legislators. There will also be opportunities for rent seeking, corruption and even
extortion in the public sector.
These problems of public sector inefficiency ought to be taken into consideration
when designing a policy.
The optimal choice of a policy may well be affected by the
extent to which the bureaucracy can be relied on to deliver the policy, especially if the
quality of delivery depends on the effort of bureaucrats.
These implementation issues
may also lead normative analysts to propose alternative ways of delivering or
administrating public service programs, including improvements in the institutions
themselves.
This does not really violate the general principle that prescriptive analysis
should proceed without treating political feasibility as a constraint.
As a matter of
semantics, we would distinguish between political feasibility—what policies legislatures
would be willing to choose—and implementation feasibility—what the bureaucracy can
be relied on to implement.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
We have taken the general position in this paper that normative public economic
analysis—which can be evaluative or prescriptive—should not take account of political
feasibility constraints.
We have argued for that on the basis of practicability, but more
important on the basis of principle.
normative analysis.
This is especially true for purely evaluative
At the same time, we have suggested that there are a number of
exceptions involving situations in which prescriptive analysis applied at the policymaking stage cannot ignore public choice constraints.
These involve cases where the
policy decision taken at one level is contingent on public decisions taken at another level.
It might be useful as a schematic device to think of there being different layers of
decision-making that are involved in the formulation and implementation of any
economic policy. (Motohiro Sato has suggested this scheme to me.) At the most general
level, four layers or stages of sequential decision-making can be distinguished.
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1. Constitutional Stage.
At this stage, the rules governing government decision-
making for the future are set out.
2. Legislative Stage.
Here, policies are enacted by collective decision-making in
legislatures. There can be more than one level of legislature at this stage
3. Implementation Stage. The policies enacted in the legislative stage are put into
effect by the bureaucracy at the relevant level of government.
4. Market Response Stage. The private sector agents take their decisions, given the
policies that have been implemented, and a market outcome results.
In a well-functioning world, participants at each stage take as given the outcomes of
previous stages, and anticipate the outcomes of subsequent stages.
There may be
complications involved in so doing, such as imperfections of information, uncertainty,
and lack of precision about the behaviour of agents at other stages.
Nonetheless, we
suppose that agents do the best they can with the information and knowledge at their
disposal.
Positive analysis can fruitfully be applied at any stage.
In a complementary
fashion, normative analysis can come in at various places. Our concern has been mainly
with prescriptive analysis applied at stage 2, the legislative stage. We have argued that a
normative perspective taken at this stage should ignore political feasibility constraints at
the same stage.
However, it will take a positive perspective with respect to the
implementation and market response stages.
Things are more complicated if stage 2
itself contains more than one level of legislative decision-making, say, a central and a
local.
In this case, normative analysis of central government decision-making should
take a positive perspective with respect to how local governments will respond. Indeed,
part of the prescriptive analysis may involve inducing local governments to behave in a
certain way. Normative analysis may certainly also be applied to the constitutional stage,
in this case taking a positive viewpoint with respect to subsequent stages. This is likely
to be a challenging task, given uncertainty about how the subsequent stages will play
themselves out.
A couple of final caveats should be mentioned.
As we have mentioned earlier,
none of our argument should be taken to imply that either normative or positive analysis
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is better than the other.
Both are obviously legitimate lines of inquiry that have
demonstrably led to many insights about the economy and the society more generally.
Indeed, pursuing normative analysis with political feasibility constraints in place is itself
also a useful line of research.
My main point is that it is not desirable to require
normative analysis to take account of political feasibility constraints.
Also, none of our discussion is meant to have any implications for the level of
abstraction at which either normative or public choice analysis is carried out.
In
particular, it is not imperative for normative policy models to be realistic fore them to be
scientifically useful. Highly abstract models, such as those we use in optimal tax theory,
have provided considerable insight into the policy problem, even though they do not yield
policies that are applicable in the real world.
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