Download Economic Outlook - Lee County Economic Development

U.S. Economic Outlook
Mark Vitner, Managing Director & Senior Economist
August 28, 2015
After a Slow Start, U.S. Growth Should Strengthen During the Second Half of the Year
 U.S growth remains solid but unspectacular. Hiring is
Overall Outlook
improving but wage growth is lacking and there are still
huge pockets of underemployment.
 The Fed is poised to raise interest rates but monetary
Monetary Policy
policy will remain expansionary. We expect the Fed to
move cautiously amid slower global economic growth.
 Slowing growth in China is pulling down commodity
Inflation
prices and will likely restrain consumer prices. Lower
inflation will hold down long-term interest rates.
 The drag from government spending cuts is lessoning in
Fiscal Policy
Global
Economy
Economic Outlook
the US and major decisions need to be made on the
highway bill, corporate tax rates and federal budget.
 Slower growth in China is weighing on growth in other
emerging economies, pushing up the value of the dollar
and presenting a threat to exports and earnings.
2
Overall Growth
Economic Growth
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10%
Revisions to previously
published data slightly boosted
estimates of economic growth
for the first half of 2015 but
slightly reduced economic
growth over the past three years.
Inventory building added to
growth during the first half of
the year and will reduce real
GDP growth in the current
quarter. Consumer spending,
homebuilding and commercial
construction are all improving.
10%
GDP - CAGR: Q2 @ 2.3%
8%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q2 @ 2.3%
6%
Forecast
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-10%
2000
-10%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
8%
4
2012
2014
2016
Employment Situation
Nonfarm employment growth has picked up over the past year and the unemployment rate has
fallen sharply. Wages are only rising modestly, however, as productivity growth remains
exceptionally weak. Broader measures of wages only show modestly stronger growth.
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment Change
Unemployment and Wage Rates
Change in Employment, In Thousands
600
600
400
400
200
200
Wages for Production & Nonsupervisory Workers, SA
12%
12%
10%
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-400
-600
-600
-800
-800
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
Unemployment Rate: Jul @ 5.3%
Hourly Earnings - Yr/Yr % Change: Jul @ 1.8%
Monthly Change: Jul @ 215K
-1,000
2007
-1,000
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0%
65
5
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
05
10
15
Unemployment
Unemployment Rate Measures
Percent
12-Month Rolling Average (NSA): Jul @ 5.6%
The unemployment rate is
slowly but steadily improving.
The broader U6 unemployment
rate has done a better job of
capturing the excess slack in the
labor market in this recovery.
U6 improved relative to the
overall unemployment rate
during the past year, suggesting
that some of the headwinds in
the labor market are lessening
Unemployment Rate (SA): Jul @ 5.3%
18%
14%
14%
10%
10%
6%
6%
2%
2%
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
18%
U6 (SA): Jul @ 10.4%
6
08
10
12
14
Employment: Structural
Full Time vs. Part Time Employment
Full-time jobs have been rising
more rapidly over the past year
and more part-time workers are
seeing their hours increase.
129
Total Employment: Jul @ 146.4M (Left Axis)
Full-Time: Jul @ 120.7M (Right Axis)
146
126
Total: 2.0M Above Prerecession Peak
143
123
Full-Time: 0.0M Below Prerecession Peak
140
120
137
117
134
114
131
111
128
108
07
08
09
10
11
12
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
7
13
14
15
Thousands
Full-time employment has only
recently risen back to its
previous peak.
Thousands
Millions, Seasonally Adjusted
149
Small Business Survey
Small Business Confidence has pulled back since the start of the year.
Business owners appear to be most concerned about slower revenue growth.
Small Business Optimism
Revenue Gap
Company Revenue Gap
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIB
Overall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100
120
Diff. Between "Increase" and "Decrease" Over Past 12 Months
115
40
40
Current Revenue Assesment: Q3 @ 10
100
110
80
105
60
100
40
95
20
90
0
85
-20
80
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
Wells Fargo Overall Situation: Q3 @ 59.0 (Left Axis)
-40
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
75
-30
-30
70
-40
Small Business Optimism: Q2 @ 96.5 (Right Axis)
-60
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Source: NFIB, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-40
04
8
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Energy
Oil prices collapsed in late 2014 and early 2015. The number of active oil rigs has subsequently
fallen sharply. While there are some tentative signs that the rig count has bottomed, another
slide in energy prices and another downturn in the rig count cannot be ruled out.
WTI
Production & Employment
Baker-Hughes Rig Count vs. Oil Prices
Oil Production vs. Employment
Oil Rotary Rigs; USD per Barrel
1,800
Oil Rig Count: Aug-21 @ 674 (Left Axis)
WTI: Aug-21 @ $41.4 (Right Axis)
1,600
Thousands of Jobs, Million of Barrels per Day
$180
700
Oil Production: Jul @ 9.5M (Right Axis)
$160
1,400
$140
1,200
$120
1,000
$100
800
$80
600
$60
400
$40
200
$20
0
$0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
10
Oil & Gas Employment: Jul @ 625.8K (Left Axis)
12
13
14
600
8
500
6
400
4
300
2
200
15
0
05
06
07
08
Source: IHS Global Insight, Baker-Hughes, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
9
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Inflation and Interest Rates
Inflation
Global disinflation has led more aggressive easing moves by the ECB and BOJ. We expect the
Fed to look through this transitory slowdown, however, and raise the federal funds rate.
U.S. CPI
Eurozone CPI
Headline CPI
Eurozone Consumer Price Index
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Year-over-Year Percent Change
15%
15%
5%
5%
12%
4%
4%
9%
9%
3%
3%
6%
6%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
12%
CPI: Jul @ 0.2%
CPI: Jul @ 0.2%
-3%
-3%
60
66
72
78
84
90
96
02
08
-1%
1997
14
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
11
-1%
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Global Yields
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Percent
U.S. yields have tended to follow
Eurozone yields. The bounce
back from earlier lows reflects
greater comfort with the growth
and inflation outlooks. The
latest iteration of the Greek
crisis led to only a modest
pullback in yields but growth
and inflation prospects have
been scaled back a bit.
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2012
0.0%
2013
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0.5%
United States: Aug 13 @ 2.2%
United Kingdom: Aug 13 @ 1.8%
Germany: Aug 13 @ 0.6%
12
2014
2015
FOMC
The FOMC is slightly more optimistic about the economy’s near-term prospects than the
financial markets but has consistently expressed caution about long-term growth prospects.
5.0%
4.5%
Fed’s Dot Plot
Long Term Forecast
Fed Funds Target Rate Expectations
FOMC Longer Term Fed Funds Rate Forecast
Fed Projections as of June Meeting; Market Futures as of June 17
Median Fed Expectations
5.0%
4.3%
Fed Funds Rate: June @ 3.75%
4.5%
Futures Market Rate
Median of Dot Plot
4.3%
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
3.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.5%
2.5%
3.9%
3.9%
2.0%
2.0%
3.8%
3.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
3.7%
3.7%
0.5%
0.5%
3.6%
3.6%
0.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.5%
3.0%
0.0%
2015
2016
2017
Longer Run
Source: Federal Reserve Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
3.5%
2012
13
2013
2014
2015
Housing
Housing
Mortgage purchase applications and pending home sales both point to further strengthening in
new and existing home sales. Most other leading indicators also remain positive.
New Home Sales
Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales vs. Mortgage Applications
Pending vs. Existing Home Sales
Thousands, Index 1990=100; Seasonally Adjusted
1,500
500
1,350
450
1,200
400
1,050
350
900
300
750
250
600
200
450
150
300
100
New Home Sales: Jul @ 507.0 (Left Axis)
Mortgage Applications: Aug @ 196.4 (Right Axis)
150
0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
120
7
110
6
100
5
90
4
80
3
10
12
70
14
2
02
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, MBA, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
8
Pending Home Sales: Jun @ 111 (Left Axis)
Existing Home Sales: Jun @ 5.30M (Right Axis)
50
0
90
Index, Millions, 3-Month Moving Average
130
15
04
06
08
10
12
14
Housing
Millions of Units
2.4
We continue to look for a
gradual recovery in
homebuilding.
2.1
Single-family housing starts are
beginning to ramp back up.
Gains will be more modest than
in past building cycles.
2.1
1.8
1.8
Forecast
1.5
Apartment demand remains
exceptionally strong but supply
is catching up with demand.
2.4
Multifamily Starts
Multifamily Forecast
Single-family Starts
Single-family Forecast
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
1.5
16
Thousands
Housing Starts
Home Prices
Household formations have picked up in a significant way in recent quarters, likely reflecting
improving labor market conditions. Stronger demand and tight inventories are resulting in
higher home prices, at least as measured by median sales prices.
Household Formation
Home Prices
Household Formations
Home Prices
Average of CPS/ ASEC and CPS/HVS, In Millions
2.5
25%
2.5
Survey Averages: 2014 @ 780K
1948 to 2014 Average
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
0.0
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
-30%
12
97
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Association of Realtors, S&P and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
17
-20%
Median Sale Price: Jul @ $235,500
Median Sale Price, 3-M Mov Avg: Jul @ 7.1%
FHFA Purchase Only Index: Jun @ 5.6%
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-10: Jun @ 4.6%
-25%
0.0
25%
99
01
03
05
07
09
-25%
-30%
11
13
15
Global Economies
U.S. Dollar
The appreciation in the dollar is likely to continue, which has created headwinds for U.S. firms
competing internationally.
Dollar
Manufacturing
Trade Weighted Dollar
ISM Manufacturing Composite Index
Major Curency Index, 1973 = 100
Diffusion Index
115
115
65
65
ISM Manufacturing Index: Jul @ 52.7
110
110
105
105
Forecast
100
100
95
95
90
90
85
85
80
80
75
75
70
70
65
2000
Trade Weighted Dollar: Q2 @ 89.9
65
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30
04
19
60
55
30
2016
Source: IHS Global Insight, Institute for Supply Management and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
12-Month Moving Average: Jul @ 54.4
60
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
S&P Revenues Earned Abroad
Percent of S&P Revenues Earned Abroad
By Sector, July, 2015
60%
50%
55%
50%
48%
40%
IT and Materials earn the
highest share of their revenues
abroad, making those industries
the most at risk to the stronger
dollar.
46%
40%
34%
30%
32%
30%
30%
24%
20%
20%
22%
10%
10%
7%
0%
Source: Bloomberg LP and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
60%
20
0%
Global Economies: China Slowdown
Chinese Trade
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
It is clear that economic growth
in China has slowed recently.
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
-20%
-20%
Exports: Jul @ -2.7%
Imports: Jul @ -10.6%
-40%
2000
-40%
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
21
2010
2012
2014
Regional
Florida
Florida Gross State Product & U.S. GDP
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Florida’s economy grew 2.7
percent in 2014, comfortably
outpacing the national average.
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
U.S. GDP: 2014 @ 2.2%
Florida GDP: 2014 @ 2.7%
-8%
-8%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-6%
23
Florida - Employment
Nonfarm payrolls continue to outpace the nation by a considerable margin.
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-Month Moving Average, NSA
6%
Florida vs. U.S. Unemployment Rate
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
-8%
Florida: Jul @ 5.4%
United States: Jul @ 5.3%
United States: Jul @ 2.1%
-10%
0%
-10%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
0%
90
14
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
2%
-8%
Florida: Jul @ 3.5%
24
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Cape Coral-Fort Myers
Employment in Cape Coral increased rose 3.9 percent over the year. Large gains were seen in
leisure & hospitality sector, trade, transportation & utilities and education & healthcare.
Nonfarm Employment
Employment by Industry
Cape Coral MSA Nonfarm Employment
Cape Coral MSA Employment Growth By Industry
3-Month Moving Averages
16%
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
16%
Total Nonfarm
12%
12%
8%
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
More
Government
8%
Number of
Employees
Leisure and Hospitality
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Educ. & Health Services
Less
Financial Activities
-8%
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Manufacturing
-8%
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 6.4%
Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jul @ 3.9%
Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jun @ 1.4%
-12%
Other Services
09
11
13
0%
15
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
July 2015
Information
-12%
25
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers
The housing market has been slow to recover. Permits continue to trend upwards, however,
and the underlying fundamentals of the housing market have improved considerably.
Housing Permits
Home Prices
Cape Coral MSA Housing Permits
CoreLogic HPI: U.S. vs. Cape Coral
Year-over-Year Percent Change
30
30
Single-Family: Jun @ 5,616
Single-Family, 12-MMA: Jun @ 3,643
Multifamily, 12-MMA: Jun @ 1,747
25
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
25
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 6,017
20
20
15
15
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
10
10
5
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
5
-30%
0
Cape Coral, FL: Jun @ 11.5%
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
-40%
14
-40%
90
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
-30%
United States: Jun @ 6.5%
26
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Naples
Naples continues to see healthy employment gains. Nonfarm payrolls rose 4.4 percent over the
past year, with all major sectors reporting solid gains.
Nonfarm Employment
Employment by Industry
Naples MSA Nonfarm Employment
Naples MSA Employment Growth By Industry
3-Month Moving Averages
20%
20%
16%
16%
12%
12%
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
Total Nonfarm
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
8%
8%
Educ. & Health Services
4%
4%
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
0%
0%
Government
-4%
-4%
-8%
-12%
Manufacturing
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
13
0%
15
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
July 2015
Information
-16%
93
Less
Other Services
-12%
-16%
91
Number of
Employees
Financial Activities
-8%
QCEW: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Dec @ 5.3%
Nonfarm: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jul @ 4.4%
Household: Yr/Yr Pct. Change: Jun @ 1.1%
More
27
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Naples
Housing construction in Naples has risen significantly over the past year. This positive trend is
likely to continue, driven by accelerating population growth and improving fundamentals.
Housing Permits
Population
Naples MSA Housing Permits
Naples MSA Population Growth
In Thousands
10
Single-Family: Jun @ 3,552
Single-Family, 12-MMA: Jun @ 2,533
Multifamily, 12-MMA: Jun @ 1,059
8
Thousands
Thousands
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
10
8
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 3,668
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Economic Outlook
0
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14
28
Five Critical Key Takeaways
 The economy should weather the recent slide in oil prices
Economic Outlook
and turmoil in Europe. Look for real GDP to rise
2.1 percent in 2015 and 2.5 percent in 2016.
Weaker Global
 The stronger gains seen in Europe earlier this year likely
Growth is
were a short-term response to the plunging value of the
Weighing on
euro. China’s economy also appears to be slowing and
Commodity Prices
will weigh further on commodity prices.
Interest Rates Will
Rise This Year
The Housing
Recovery Will
Gain Momentum
The Mix of Growth
is Shifting More
Toward
Consumption
Economic Outlook
 We still look for the Fed to raise the federal funds rate
this fall but the pace and ultimate magnitude of rate
hikes now looks to be less than previously thought.
 Demand for single-family homes is reviving, with firsttime homebuyers finally coming back into the market.
Apartment construction is close to peaking.
 The economy is better for consumers than producers.
Areas of the country exposed to Agriculture, Energy,
Mining and Manufacturing will likely see growth slow.
29
Our Forecast
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Forecast
Actual
2014
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Inflation Indicators
PCE Deflator
1
Forecast
2015
2012
Actual
2013
2014
Forecast
2015
2016
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
-0.9
4.6
4.3
2.1
0.6
2.3
1.6
2.3
2.2
1.5
2.4
2.1
2.5
1.3
3.8
3.5
4.3
1.8
2.9
3.0
3.0
1.5
1.7
2.7
3.0
2.8
1.3
1.7
1.6
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.9
1.4
1.4
0.4
1.9
1.4
2.1
1.8
1.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3
1.0
2.1
1.5
1.6
0.3
2.1
2
Consumer Price Index
Industrial Production
1
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
Trade Weighted Dollar Index
Unemployment Rate
2
3
3.6
5.7
3.9
4.7
-0.2
-1.7
2.3
3.1
2.8
1.9
3.7
1.8
3.0
-3.6
1.2
5.8
3.4
4.6
5.3
4.9
6.6
10.0
2.0
1.7
5.3
6.7
76.9
75.9
81.3
85.1
92.1
89.9
92.0
93.0
73.5
75.9
78.5
91.7
95.9
6.6
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.2
8.1
7.4
6.2
5.4
5.0
0.92
1.00
1.15
1.25
0.93
0.98
1.03
1.06
0.98
1.14
1.19
1.25
0.78
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.44
1.38
Conventional Mortgage Rate
4.34
4.16
4.16
3.86
3.77
3.98
4.15
4.23
3.66
3.98
4.17
4.03
4.51
10 Year Note
2.73
2.53
2.52
2.17
1.94
2.35
2.41
2.49
1.80
2.35
2.54
2.30
2.71
Housing Starts
4
Quarter-End Interest Rates 5
Federal Funds Target Rate
Forecast as of: August 12, 2015
1
C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
2
Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
3
Federal Reserve Major C urrency Index, 1973=100 - Quarter End
4
Millions of Units
5
Annual Numbers Represent Averages
Economic Outlook
30
Appendix
Economic Outlook Group Publications
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Selected Recent Economic Reports
Date
Title
Authors
U.S. Macro
August-06
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey: Q3 2015
Vitner & Wolf
August-04
Case Study of the Taper Tantrum and Term Premiums
Silvia & Moehring
August-04
Presidential Elections in America: A Primer
Silvia, Quinlan & Brown
August-04
Inflation Charbook: August 2015
July-30
To view any of our past research
please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economics
U.S. Regional
August-06
Western Economic Roundup
Vitner & Wolf
July-21
A Strong First Half For North Carolina
Vitner & Wolf
July-17
California Employment Conditions: June 2015
Vitner & Wolf
July-17
Florida's Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Lower
Vitner & Wolf
July-17
Texas Labor Market Remains Resilient in June
Vitner & Wolf
Global Econom y
August-04
To join any of our research
distribution lists please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
Bullard & House
2015 Federal Long-Term Fiscal Outlook: How Dramatically Does Policy Have to Change? Silvia, Brown & Pugliese
A Slightly More Upbeat RBA Keeps Rates on Hold
Quinlan
July-31
Taiwanese GDP Considerably Weaker Than Expected in Q2
Quinlan & Nelson
July-30
Stronger-Than-Expected Q2 GDP Growth in Sweden
Quinlan & Nelson
July-28
U.K. GDP Growth Bounces Back in Q2
Quinlan & Nelson
July-24
MENA: Got Oil?
Bryson, Aléman & Nelson
August-05
Interest Rates/Credit Market
TIP: Pay Little Heed to Current TIPS Breakeven Inflation
Silvia, Vitner & House
July-29
Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part II
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
July-22
Potential Fiscal Policy Challenges to Monetary Policy: Part I
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
July-15
A Closer Look at the 2-Year Treasury
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
July-08
Consumers Expect to Borrow More
Silvia, Vitner & Brown
Real Estate
August-07
Economic Outlook
Commerial Real Estate Chartbook: Q2
Khan
July-31
Housing Chartbook: July 2015
Vitner, Khan & Batcheller
July-24
Nonresidential Construction Recap: July
Khan
June-30
Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2015
Vitner, Khan & Moehring
June-30
Nonresidential Construction Recap: June
Khan
32
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Global Head of Research and Economics
Economists
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
………………… …[email protected]
Global Head of Research & Economics
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………[email protected]
……
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………. [email protected]
Eric J. Viloria, Currency Strategist
Chief Economist
Sarah House, Economist
John E. Silvia …
...................... …
[email protected]
.
…………… …………
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… …
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Senior Economists
Economic Analysts
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
[email protected]
Erik Nelson, Economic Analyst
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… …[email protected]
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
[email protected]
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……[email protected]
Alex Moehring, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Misa Batcheller, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Michael Pugliese, Economic Analyst
[email protected]
Administrative Assistants
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… …………[email protected]
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
[email protected]
Donna LaFleur, Executive Assistant.
. [email protected]
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Economic Outlook
33