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Page 1 of 3 MONTANE MAINLAND SOUTHEAST ASIA IN TRANSITION by Benjavan Rerkasem Deanna Donovan Kirk Talbott November 1996 Agricultural Systems Programme Chiang Mai University Chiang Mai, Thailand 50200 Program on Environment East-West Center Honolulu, Hawaii USA Center for International Development and Environment World Resources Institute Washington, D.C. USA Introduction Mainland Southeast Asia is undergoing dramatic economic growth, arguably greater than any other region on Earth. The once relatively isolated upland areas, constituting approximately one-half of the land area of the six countries in this region, harbor an immense wealth of natural resources including globally important stocks of biological diversity and a rich heritage of indigenous cultures. With many areas only recently reopened to outside influences, both cultural institutions and the environment are experiencing profound and widespread change in the transition to modernity. Remaining expanses of upland forest are under threat as the timber is harvested, forest land converted to alternative uses, and traditional swidden fields transformed into orderly plantations of cash-crop species. Massive infrastructure projects alter not only the physical but the social and economic aspects of the landscape; thousands of people migrating into and within upland areas search for better land and livelihood opportunities. The current economic "boom" in China and Thailand is central to this regional dynamic. Although growth in the developing countries overall slowed during 1995, the economies of those countries ringing the Southeast Asia heartland, especially China, Malaysia, and Thailand, remained at the forefront with real growth rates of well over 8 percent per year. Although Thailand's per capita GNP of USD 2410 (1994) is more than four times that of China (USD 530) and almost ten times that of any of her smaller neighbors, the strength of the Page 2 of 3 Chinese market increasingly dominates. What may be loosely termed the middle class in China totals in excess of 700 million people, more than three times-the total population of all of mainland Southeast Asia; over the past seven years consumer purchasing power in both China and Thailand has increased by twothirds (World Bank 1996). Given the current pace of economic growth with inflation predictors for Asia remaining relatively low (9.9 percent as compared with 17.5 percent on average for the rest of the developing world in 1995), it would seem that the pressure of consumer demand can only intensify (ITTO 1996). The current scenario of rapid growth in China and Thailand resembles that of Japan in the 1950s and 1960s and the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of East Asia during the subsequent decade (ISEAS 1996). As for their predecessors, the economic growth of China and Thailand depends in many sectors on the raw materials imported from less-developed but resource-rich neighbors. With less than 8 percent of its original tropical forest remaining, China imports four-fifths of the tropical timber it consumes. Virtually on par with Thailand as fourth largest importer of tropical timber in 1993, in two years China had moved into second place, tied with Taiwan (ITTO 1996). In Thailand, despite a ban on logging passed in 1989, restrictions on timber transshipments imposed in 1993, a moratorium on sawmill licensing in 1995, the erosion of profits due to higher timber costs, and an increasing dependence on imported raw material, output from the forest products industry sector is increasing (FAO 1995). With a real growth rate nearly equal to that of Thailand, Vietnam may soon be competing with Thailand for timber supplies in neighboring Laos and Cambodia. Given regional growth rates and historic patterns of forest products consumption, the internal market for timber in this region can be expected to grow. Structural change in developing economies will alter the nature as well as the level of demand for energy as well as raw materials. Thus, consumption of commercial energy increased 103 percent in mainland Southeast Asia during the 1980s (WRI et al. 1996). Undoubtedly, rising energy demands in these economies will increase pressure on forest lands, if not for materials outright then for watershed conservation. Initial expansion of the industrial and tourism sectors in rural areas increases the demand for traditional fuels, especially fuelwood, which often goes under-reported. Expansion of coal mining in Yunnan in past years led to a rise in the demand for pit props (mining timber) with devastating effects on local forests. Currently in Thailand the demand of urban consumers, including industry, for electricity puts powerful pressures on government to support the construction of hydroelectric facilities in nearby mountainous regions (in this case Laos), generating attendant demands for setting aside large areas for reservoirs and undisturbed catchment. Understanding the true extent of the pressures on upland resources is difficult at best. Much of the crossborder movement of timber and other resources in this region goes unrecorded. In the log trade between Myanmar and Thailand, for example, official figures from Myanmar report exports equal to only about I percent of imports recorded by the Thai officials (ITTO 1996). The trade in wildlife and their products, used for culinary as well as pharmaceutical purposes, is well-known. In the absence of effective controls, rapidly rising consumer purchasing power, mainly in China, is having a devastating effect on wild plant and animal populations in this region. Although the percentage of known bird species "threatened" with extinction is twice as great in China as in Laos (UNEP 1993), the situation in Southeast Asia is rapidly deteriorating. Species without specific market value are not exempt from such pressures; although free from human predation they are threatened by the degradation and destruction of their habitat. Scientists estimate that the natural forest in mainland Southeast Asia is being converted to alternative uses at a rate of 4.4 percent per year, in 1994, an area equivalent to a little less than the total land area of the Netherlands or Belgium (WRI et al. 1996). Effective control of cross-border transfers is virtually impossible. Thailand has more than 8000 km of border with Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia, while China has nearly 4000 km of border with Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam (CIA 1995). Despite rugged mountain terrain, the indigenous population has been moving people and goods throughout this region for millennia with the several major north-south rivers serving as important conduits for trade. The planned improvements to transportation, energy, and communications facilities will only facilitate the flow of goods and services and thus the development of these emerging market economies. While the expansion of trade will draw both regional and international capital into the area through Asian subsidiaries or other intermediaries, the growing recognition of the very advantageous geographic location and the pool of human and physical resources of this region will only bolster this trend. The enormous pull of demand for forest and agricultural products, water, and energy is placing an increasingly heavy burden on the region's upland resources and environment jeopardizing the development prospects of the indigenous peoples. Uncontrolled or poorly managed resource exploitation, especially logging and mining, infrastructure development, and agricultural expansion threaten large tracts of remaining upland forests and the watersheds they protect, and thus the livelihoods of those people who for centuries have depended on these ecosystems. An area rich in resources and potential, the uplands of mainland Southeast Asia are poised as if on a fulcrum with the pressures of rapid modernization and industrialization weighed against concerns for careful conservation of the environmental and cultural resources. Page 3 of 3 It was in this setting that Chiang Mai University in November 1995 hosted a major regional symposium, entitled "Montane Mainland Southeast Asia in Transition." Bringing together concerned scientists and government officials, for a total of more than 150 government and non-government organization (NGO) representatives from 22 countries, this meeting provided the opportunity for researchers and development practitioners to share findings from ongoing fieldwork. In providing a forum for the exchange of ideas on problems of environment and development in the upland areas, specifically of mainland Southeast Asia, this symposium helped to galvanize a shared vision of critical issues and research priorities. This paper summarizes and synthesizes the ideas emerging from this meeting, both from the papers presented and the ensuing discussions. Here we review the major findings emphasizing some of the key themes and critical issues identified by current research. A summary of the methods and strategies employed in field activities highlights some of the especially promising techniques being developed. Drawing on the experience reflected in the papers, we identify issues urgently in need of additional, in-depth research. In setting out this research agenda, we stress the need to support existing initiatives, programs, and institutions to build on the strong cooperation already existing among all the scientists working in this area.