Download 2014 Festive Insights and Predictions

2014 Festive Insights and Predictions
What to expect this Christmas and how to make the
most of this knowledge
Festive Insights and Predictions | 2014
1 2014 Festive Predictions...........................................................................................................................3
1.1 Christmas 2014 will be the biggest yet...............................................................................................................................3
1.2 The key dates in the calendar will continue to change..................................................................................................3
1.3 Online will be later than ever...............................................................................................................................................5
1.4 High Street shopping will take over when online fades.................................................................................................5
1.5 There will be less discounting.............................................................................................................................................6
1.6 Content will be key................................................................................................................................................................6
1.7 More evidence of brands moving towards fully-integrated marketing strategies.....................................................6
1.8 Offline and online linkage....................................................................................................................................................6
2 How can marketers capitalise on this knowledge?...............................................................................7
2.1 Making the most of the key dates.......................................................................................................................................7
2.2 Be prepared for later than ever Christmas shopping.....................................................................................................8
2.3 Get your messaging right....................................................................................................................................................8
3 Conclusion................................................................................................................................................9
3.1 Insights provide the basis for informed decisions and planning..................................................................................9
CONTENTS
1. 2014 FESTIVE PREDICTIONS
1.2 THE KEY DATES IN THE CALENDAR WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE
We predict that online visits will continue to increase in line with the general 2014
trend.
Christmas 2013 saw the traditional retail shopping peaks shift under the influence of
American concepts such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. We expect this trend to
continue with millions of UK consumers flocking to retail websites during these now
established retail peaks.
December 2013 was the busiest month ever for retail websites with more than three
billion visits. We expect Christmas 2014 will break this record once again.
In addition we predict the emergence of a third new date in the festive retail calendar –
what we are calling Manic Monday – which is the second Monday in December.
We expect the total number of visits will be closer to 3.5 billion in 2014.
The below graph displays visits to retail sites in December and November of last year.
1.1 CHRISTMAS 2014 WILL BE THE BIGGEST YET
Festive Insights and Predictions | 3
November
BLACK FRIDAY
December
28
MANIC MONDAY
8
Black Friday is the name given to the last Friday in November that has
become one of the busiest retail days of the year. Black Friday originated in
the US but in the past few years it has increased in popularity this side of the Atlantic.
Traditionally falling on the last Friday in November, the day after Thanksgiving, Black
Friday has come to mark the beginning of the Christmas shopping period.
2013 saw a new trend emerge as the second Monday of December
witnessed a huge spike in online activity, more so, in fact, than Cyber
Monday. Retail websites racked up 120 million visits on this day alone, an extraordinary
10% increase on 2012, making the second Monday in December the biggest online preChristmas shopping day – hence, Manic Monday.
Last year in the final week of November, one out of every 550 searches in the UK
concerned Black Friday.
We believe that Manic Monday will continue to grow, potentially at the expense of
Cyber Monday. This is because people are comfortable leaving their Christmas
shopping later and later due to increased trust in the ability of retailers to deliver closer
to Christmas.
Using Experian’s Hitwise platform to monitor visits to a wide range of major retailers
saw Black Friday 2013 (29 November) become a huge British shopping day with a 19%
increase in visits to retail websites compared to Black Friday 2012.
This year we expect the influence of Black Friday and the activity of shoppers around
this time to increase further.
December
CYBER MONDAY
1
Cyber Monday is the marketing term for the Monday after Black Friday.
Another American influence, Cyber Monday, like Black Friday, has
experienced an increase in popularity in the UK in recent years. Last year UK
consumers logged just over 115 million visits to retail websites - a 9% increase from
2012.
December
BOXING DAY
26
For the sixth consecutive year, Boxing Day 2013 was the single biggest
online shopping day of the year, with UK Internet users making 129 million
visits to retail websites and setting a new daily retail visits record in the process.
We predict that Boxing Day 2014 will continue this trend and will once again set
records as the single biggest online shopping day. Strong growth of 15% between 2012
and 2013 suggests that Boxing Day 2014 will be huge.
Cyber Monday will continue to be an important date but expect larger spikes later in
the month.
19%
increase in
retail visits on
Black Friday
9%
increase in
retail visits
on Cyber
Monday
10%
increase in
retail visits
on Manic
Monday
15%
increase
in retail
visits on
Boxing Day
Festive Insights and Predictions | 4
1.3 ONLINE WILL BE LATER THAN EVER
1.4 HIGH STREET SHOPPING WILL TAKE OVER WHEN ONLINE FADES
2013 saw shoppers leave their online shopping later than ever – this had a knock-on
effect for the high street with customers heading to the shops later than previous
years. This trend was attributed to the emergence in 2013 of click and collect services
and a perceived increase in trust of customers in brands’ delivery infrastructure to
deliver in time.
While we are confident in predicting that online activity will continue later than ever
before there will, as there always does, come a point where shoppers take to the high
street to pick up those last minute items. We predict that this will come later this year,
as the last few days before Christmas will see more shoppers on the high street rather
than online.
With click and collect now very much part of many brands’ standard offering and with
delivery dates predicted to be later than ever we expect this trend to continue. Online
shoppers will once again shop later than ever before – meaning the high street surge
will once again take longer to materialise.
The graph below indicates how the traffic for retail sites falls away closer to Christmas
while the number of people heading to the high street (indicated by data from
Experian’s Footfall) increases.
This is indicated in the emergence of Manic Monday. Consumers are more
comfortable leaving their online shopping until later. We also expect there to be
significant levels of traffic on the third Monday of the month , December 15, because
of this.
We predict that this will still be the case this year despite the anticipated later
online activity.
Festive Insights and Predictions | 5
1.5 THERE WILL BE LESS DISCOUNTING
For those brands that hold their nerve, this year, there will be less of an emphasis on
overall discounts to attract customers with many retailers attempting to pull back
on the amount of vouchers and coupons issued. This drive away from discounts is
a reaction to the latest thinking that discounting damages brand image and doesn’t
attract loyal customers. There is scepticism regarding the true value of new customers
attracted by discounts and whether they will ever return and purchase at full price.
Some retailers are concerned that if customers expected discounts it could damage
their brand image.
Expect discounts for loyal customers with fewer offers available to new customers.
1.6 CONTENT WILL BE KEY
With competition for customers fiercer than ever among retailers, expect those who
get their communications right to grab the plaudits this year. Every customer is up
for grabs and if one brand doesn’t get it right with an individual, another will. People
are more discerning than ever and expect a good service and customer journey. We
predict that the companies which best personalise their content and communications
and make them relevant to their audience will outdo their competitors.
The aim is to get a Single Customer View but for many retailers this will remain
something to strive for in 2015. Considering the importance of Christmas to the retail
sector we predict many multi-channel marketers will be using their experiences this
festive period to gather learnings ahead of the drive towards full integration in 2015.
1.8 OFFLINE AND ONLINE LINKAGE
This year will see many retailers trialling ways to bridge the gap between online and
offline. The issue of clicks to bricks and attribution is a tricky one with no accepted
across the board solution. In essence the problem stems from retailers struggling
to give customers an incentive to say they have been in store (and vice versa; been
online) – so we predict numerous brands will be trialling new and sophisticated tactics
to link the online to the offline.
Loyalty points and reductions for customers who login to member areas or answer
surveys is one aspect but there will also be evidence of retailers attempting to take
people’s information in store. Whether these incentives will be enough to sufficiently
map out customer behaviour remains to be seen but we expect this Christmas’
findings to play an important role in the formulation of future strategies.
The more relevant your content is to customers the better an experience those
customers will have.
1.7 MORE EVIDENCE OF BRANDS MOVING TOWARDS FULLY-INTEGRATED
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Most retailers remain mainly multi-channel rather than cross-channel – meaning the
majority of their channels and the data integral to those channels are distinct. No one
can deny that social, for instance, is important in terms of driving demand but a lot
of retailers do not have a clear view of its relative performance and how individual
customers are behaving across channels.
With this in mind we predict that this Christmas will begin to see more of a push
towards aligning campaigns across social, email and paid channels to get a better
understanding of each customer.
Festive Insights and Predictions | 6
2 HOW CAN MARKETERS CAPITALISE ON THIS
KNOWLEDGE?
2.1 MAKING THE MOST OF THE KEY DATES
Black Friday
M
T
In a similar vein to the approach to Black Friday, online retailers should be prepared
for a high level of interest on Cyber Monday. Christmas promotions should be ready
and your online functions working smoothly.
Retailers should be prepared for Manic Monday which will experience an even larger
number of online visits. The closer to Christmas retailers can guarantee delivery the
later online activity will gradually become.
December 2014
S
The interest around Black Friday is driven by reduced prices and great offers.
Retailers should make sure they have prepared offerings and marketing campaigns to
suit this. Efforts to advertise Black Friday activity is advisable to ensure potential and
existing customers are aware of what activities are planned.
W
T
Christmas Eve
Christmas Day
F
S
Cyber Monday
Manic Monday
Boxing Day 2014 will be huge as the increase in online activity continues. Those
brands which are prepared for the increased numbers will be best suited to take
advantage. Sales are important here and it is crucial that brands make their sales
offerings clear. This can be done through special marketing campaigns (emails/social
media) which can kick off before Christmas – just make sure you don’t start competing
with your Christmas messages. Also bear in mind that shouting about your fantastic
sales discounts as people are buying Christmas presents at full price could annoy
some customers.
Boxing Day
Festive Insights and Predictions | 7
2.2 BE PREPARED FOR LATER THAN EVER CHRISTMAS SHOPPING
One of the key predictions this insights report has highlighted is that Christmas
shopping will get later and later. Last year saw this emerge as a huge trend and in 2014
we expect it to become even more of a feature.
We put this down to growing confidence in the standard of delivery services, including
‘click and collect’.
This includes tailored and personalised content delivered at the preferred time and in
the preferred format.
This Christmas brands that have the Always On Consumer in mind are in a good place.
This requires the ability to draw on a Single Customer View of your customers and the
ability to market to them across channel. If one retailer isn’t fulfilling the Always On
Customer’s need, another will.
Click and collect is a useful tool for consumers because they can order online to
collect in store. Delivery times are normally shorter than deliveries direct to their
homes so as Christmas gets closer more people will take to click and collect.
To make the most of this trend retailers need to be prepared for spikes in traffic on
Manic Monday (December 8) and also the Monday after (December 15) as well as
increased traffic throughout December.
Promoting your click and collect services is a sensible approach and make sure you
clearly indicate when the last days of delivery are. If you can guarantee right up until
Christmas you should be shouting about it.
2.3 GET YOUR MESSAGING RIGHT
We have predicted that the brands which get their content right will be successful this
Christmas. This is in line with the ongoing consumer behaviour trend of people getting
more discerning and demanding.
Brands should look to their customers for inspiration on content ideas. Basing your
content on actual user demand is the optimum way to cater for discerning customers.
For more ideas on how to generate relevant content read this article.
This new customer is empowered, hyper connected, opinionated and vocal. This new
type of consumer is called the Always On Consumer. They know what they want,
expect it to be delivered to them and will let you (and others know) if they don’t get it.
For more information read Experian’s research on the Always On Consumer. The best
way to market to the Always On Consumer is to get to know them and to provide as
good a customer experience as possible.
Festive Insights and Predictions | 8
3 Conclusion
3.1 Insights provide the basis for informed decisions and planning
In conclusion, we predict that the key themes of this Christmas will be:
•Manic Monday to eclipse Cyber Monday and other pre-Christmas peaks
•Retail website visits to set new records in December
Experian Marketing Services is a leading global provider of consumer
insights, targeting, data quality and cross-channel marketing. We help
organisations intelligently interact with today’s empowered and hyperconnected consumers. By helping marketers identify their best customers,
find more of them, and then coordinate seamless and intelligent
interactions across the most appropriate channels, Experian Marketing
Services’ clients can deepen customer loyalty, strengthen brand advocacy
and maximise profits.
•Online shopping to last longer – click and collect to play a major part
•Cross-channel and personalised marketing to prove successful
One of the biggest and unique challenges of the festive period for retailers is
cementing the sale when they have the chance – otherwise someone else will. This is
why we believe the ability of brands to tailor their content to their customers will prove
crucial. Of course, this depends on their ability to understand and segment those
customers to find out who they are and what they like. Retailers which have done
this work are at an advantage and those that haven’t will be playing catch up as this
promises to be a key theme into 2015
and beyond.
For further information please contact us:
T 0845 234 0391
E [email protected]
www.experian.co.uk/marketingservices
Having the correct consumer insight will prove influential in a company’s ability to
move from multi-channel to cross-channel – set to be one of the biggest drives for 2015
– which we will see evidence of this Christmas.
In general, Christmas 2014 promises to be a busy one for retailers with online activity
especially predicted to be much greater and to last longer.
Festive Insights and Predictions | 9
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