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2014 Festive Insights and Predictions What to expect this Christmas and how to make the most of this knowledge Festive Insights and Predictions | 2014 1 2014 Festive Predictions...........................................................................................................................3 1.1 Christmas 2014 will be the biggest yet...............................................................................................................................3 1.2 The key dates in the calendar will continue to change..................................................................................................3 1.3 Online will be later than ever...............................................................................................................................................5 1.4 High Street shopping will take over when online fades.................................................................................................5 1.5 There will be less discounting.............................................................................................................................................6 1.6 Content will be key................................................................................................................................................................6 1.7 More evidence of brands moving towards fully-integrated marketing strategies.....................................................6 1.8 Offline and online linkage....................................................................................................................................................6 2 How can marketers capitalise on this knowledge?...............................................................................7 2.1 Making the most of the key dates.......................................................................................................................................7 2.2 Be prepared for later than ever Christmas shopping.....................................................................................................8 2.3 Get your messaging right....................................................................................................................................................8 3 Conclusion................................................................................................................................................9 3.1 Insights provide the basis for informed decisions and planning..................................................................................9 CONTENTS 1. 2014 FESTIVE PREDICTIONS 1.2 THE KEY DATES IN THE CALENDAR WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE We predict that online visits will continue to increase in line with the general 2014 trend. Christmas 2013 saw the traditional retail shopping peaks shift under the influence of American concepts such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday. We expect this trend to continue with millions of UK consumers flocking to retail websites during these now established retail peaks. December 2013 was the busiest month ever for retail websites with more than three billion visits. We expect Christmas 2014 will break this record once again. In addition we predict the emergence of a third new date in the festive retail calendar – what we are calling Manic Monday – which is the second Monday in December. We expect the total number of visits will be closer to 3.5 billion in 2014. The below graph displays visits to retail sites in December and November of last year. 1.1 CHRISTMAS 2014 WILL BE THE BIGGEST YET Festive Insights and Predictions | 3 November BLACK FRIDAY December 28 MANIC MONDAY 8 Black Friday is the name given to the last Friday in November that has become one of the busiest retail days of the year. Black Friday originated in the US but in the past few years it has increased in popularity this side of the Atlantic. Traditionally falling on the last Friday in November, the day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday has come to mark the beginning of the Christmas shopping period. 2013 saw a new trend emerge as the second Monday of December witnessed a huge spike in online activity, more so, in fact, than Cyber Monday. Retail websites racked up 120 million visits on this day alone, an extraordinary 10% increase on 2012, making the second Monday in December the biggest online preChristmas shopping day – hence, Manic Monday. Last year in the final week of November, one out of every 550 searches in the UK concerned Black Friday. We believe that Manic Monday will continue to grow, potentially at the expense of Cyber Monday. This is because people are comfortable leaving their Christmas shopping later and later due to increased trust in the ability of retailers to deliver closer to Christmas. Using Experian’s Hitwise platform to monitor visits to a wide range of major retailers saw Black Friday 2013 (29 November) become a huge British shopping day with a 19% increase in visits to retail websites compared to Black Friday 2012. This year we expect the influence of Black Friday and the activity of shoppers around this time to increase further. December CYBER MONDAY 1 Cyber Monday is the marketing term for the Monday after Black Friday. Another American influence, Cyber Monday, like Black Friday, has experienced an increase in popularity in the UK in recent years. Last year UK consumers logged just over 115 million visits to retail websites - a 9% increase from 2012. December BOXING DAY 26 For the sixth consecutive year, Boxing Day 2013 was the single biggest online shopping day of the year, with UK Internet users making 129 million visits to retail websites and setting a new daily retail visits record in the process. We predict that Boxing Day 2014 will continue this trend and will once again set records as the single biggest online shopping day. Strong growth of 15% between 2012 and 2013 suggests that Boxing Day 2014 will be huge. Cyber Monday will continue to be an important date but expect larger spikes later in the month. 19% increase in retail visits on Black Friday 9% increase in retail visits on Cyber Monday 10% increase in retail visits on Manic Monday 15% increase in retail visits on Boxing Day Festive Insights and Predictions | 4 1.3 ONLINE WILL BE LATER THAN EVER 1.4 HIGH STREET SHOPPING WILL TAKE OVER WHEN ONLINE FADES 2013 saw shoppers leave their online shopping later than ever – this had a knock-on effect for the high street with customers heading to the shops later than previous years. This trend was attributed to the emergence in 2013 of click and collect services and a perceived increase in trust of customers in brands’ delivery infrastructure to deliver in time. While we are confident in predicting that online activity will continue later than ever before there will, as there always does, come a point where shoppers take to the high street to pick up those last minute items. We predict that this will come later this year, as the last few days before Christmas will see more shoppers on the high street rather than online. With click and collect now very much part of many brands’ standard offering and with delivery dates predicted to be later than ever we expect this trend to continue. Online shoppers will once again shop later than ever before – meaning the high street surge will once again take longer to materialise. The graph below indicates how the traffic for retail sites falls away closer to Christmas while the number of people heading to the high street (indicated by data from Experian’s Footfall) increases. This is indicated in the emergence of Manic Monday. Consumers are more comfortable leaving their online shopping until later. We also expect there to be significant levels of traffic on the third Monday of the month , December 15, because of this. We predict that this will still be the case this year despite the anticipated later online activity. Festive Insights and Predictions | 5 1.5 THERE WILL BE LESS DISCOUNTING For those brands that hold their nerve, this year, there will be less of an emphasis on overall discounts to attract customers with many retailers attempting to pull back on the amount of vouchers and coupons issued. This drive away from discounts is a reaction to the latest thinking that discounting damages brand image and doesn’t attract loyal customers. There is scepticism regarding the true value of new customers attracted by discounts and whether they will ever return and purchase at full price. Some retailers are concerned that if customers expected discounts it could damage their brand image. Expect discounts for loyal customers with fewer offers available to new customers. 1.6 CONTENT WILL BE KEY With competition for customers fiercer than ever among retailers, expect those who get their communications right to grab the plaudits this year. Every customer is up for grabs and if one brand doesn’t get it right with an individual, another will. People are more discerning than ever and expect a good service and customer journey. We predict that the companies which best personalise their content and communications and make them relevant to their audience will outdo their competitors. The aim is to get a Single Customer View but for many retailers this will remain something to strive for in 2015. Considering the importance of Christmas to the retail sector we predict many multi-channel marketers will be using their experiences this festive period to gather learnings ahead of the drive towards full integration in 2015. 1.8 OFFLINE AND ONLINE LINKAGE This year will see many retailers trialling ways to bridge the gap between online and offline. The issue of clicks to bricks and attribution is a tricky one with no accepted across the board solution. In essence the problem stems from retailers struggling to give customers an incentive to say they have been in store (and vice versa; been online) – so we predict numerous brands will be trialling new and sophisticated tactics to link the online to the offline. Loyalty points and reductions for customers who login to member areas or answer surveys is one aspect but there will also be evidence of retailers attempting to take people’s information in store. Whether these incentives will be enough to sufficiently map out customer behaviour remains to be seen but we expect this Christmas’ findings to play an important role in the formulation of future strategies. The more relevant your content is to customers the better an experience those customers will have. 1.7 MORE EVIDENCE OF BRANDS MOVING TOWARDS FULLY-INTEGRATED MARKETING STRATEGIES Most retailers remain mainly multi-channel rather than cross-channel – meaning the majority of their channels and the data integral to those channels are distinct. No one can deny that social, for instance, is important in terms of driving demand but a lot of retailers do not have a clear view of its relative performance and how individual customers are behaving across channels. With this in mind we predict that this Christmas will begin to see more of a push towards aligning campaigns across social, email and paid channels to get a better understanding of each customer. Festive Insights and Predictions | 6 2 HOW CAN MARKETERS CAPITALISE ON THIS KNOWLEDGE? 2.1 MAKING THE MOST OF THE KEY DATES Black Friday M T In a similar vein to the approach to Black Friday, online retailers should be prepared for a high level of interest on Cyber Monday. Christmas promotions should be ready and your online functions working smoothly. Retailers should be prepared for Manic Monday which will experience an even larger number of online visits. The closer to Christmas retailers can guarantee delivery the later online activity will gradually become. December 2014 S The interest around Black Friday is driven by reduced prices and great offers. Retailers should make sure they have prepared offerings and marketing campaigns to suit this. Efforts to advertise Black Friday activity is advisable to ensure potential and existing customers are aware of what activities are planned. W T Christmas Eve Christmas Day F S Cyber Monday Manic Monday Boxing Day 2014 will be huge as the increase in online activity continues. Those brands which are prepared for the increased numbers will be best suited to take advantage. Sales are important here and it is crucial that brands make their sales offerings clear. This can be done through special marketing campaigns (emails/social media) which can kick off before Christmas – just make sure you don’t start competing with your Christmas messages. Also bear in mind that shouting about your fantastic sales discounts as people are buying Christmas presents at full price could annoy some customers. Boxing Day Festive Insights and Predictions | 7 2.2 BE PREPARED FOR LATER THAN EVER CHRISTMAS SHOPPING One of the key predictions this insights report has highlighted is that Christmas shopping will get later and later. Last year saw this emerge as a huge trend and in 2014 we expect it to become even more of a feature. We put this down to growing confidence in the standard of delivery services, including ‘click and collect’. This includes tailored and personalised content delivered at the preferred time and in the preferred format. This Christmas brands that have the Always On Consumer in mind are in a good place. This requires the ability to draw on a Single Customer View of your customers and the ability to market to them across channel. If one retailer isn’t fulfilling the Always On Customer’s need, another will. Click and collect is a useful tool for consumers because they can order online to collect in store. Delivery times are normally shorter than deliveries direct to their homes so as Christmas gets closer more people will take to click and collect. To make the most of this trend retailers need to be prepared for spikes in traffic on Manic Monday (December 8) and also the Monday after (December 15) as well as increased traffic throughout December. Promoting your click and collect services is a sensible approach and make sure you clearly indicate when the last days of delivery are. If you can guarantee right up until Christmas you should be shouting about it. 2.3 GET YOUR MESSAGING RIGHT We have predicted that the brands which get their content right will be successful this Christmas. This is in line with the ongoing consumer behaviour trend of people getting more discerning and demanding. Brands should look to their customers for inspiration on content ideas. Basing your content on actual user demand is the optimum way to cater for discerning customers. For more ideas on how to generate relevant content read this article. This new customer is empowered, hyper connected, opinionated and vocal. This new type of consumer is called the Always On Consumer. They know what they want, expect it to be delivered to them and will let you (and others know) if they don’t get it. For more information read Experian’s research on the Always On Consumer. The best way to market to the Always On Consumer is to get to know them and to provide as good a customer experience as possible. Festive Insights and Predictions | 8 3 Conclusion 3.1 Insights provide the basis for informed decisions and planning In conclusion, we predict that the key themes of this Christmas will be: •Manic Monday to eclipse Cyber Monday and other pre-Christmas peaks •Retail website visits to set new records in December Experian Marketing Services is a leading global provider of consumer insights, targeting, data quality and cross-channel marketing. We help organisations intelligently interact with today’s empowered and hyperconnected consumers. By helping marketers identify their best customers, find more of them, and then coordinate seamless and intelligent interactions across the most appropriate channels, Experian Marketing Services’ clients can deepen customer loyalty, strengthen brand advocacy and maximise profits. •Online shopping to last longer – click and collect to play a major part •Cross-channel and personalised marketing to prove successful One of the biggest and unique challenges of the festive period for retailers is cementing the sale when they have the chance – otherwise someone else will. This is why we believe the ability of brands to tailor their content to their customers will prove crucial. Of course, this depends on their ability to understand and segment those customers to find out who they are and what they like. Retailers which have done this work are at an advantage and those that haven’t will be playing catch up as this promises to be a key theme into 2015 and beyond. For further information please contact us: T 0845 234 0391 E [email protected] www.experian.co.uk/marketingservices Having the correct consumer insight will prove influential in a company’s ability to move from multi-channel to cross-channel – set to be one of the biggest drives for 2015 – which we will see evidence of this Christmas. In general, Christmas 2014 promises to be a busy one for retailers with online activity especially predicted to be much greater and to last longer. Festive Insights and Predictions | 9 7 Old Town Clapham London SW4 0JT 1 The Heights Brooklands Weybridge Surrey KT13 0NY Embankment House Electric Avenue Nottingham NG80 1RH 160 Dundee Street Edinburgh EH11 1DQ 0845 234 0391 www.experian.co.uk/marketingservices Experian Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Experian Ltd is registered in England and Wales under company registration number 653331. Registered office address: Landmark House, Experian Way, NG2 Business Park, Nottingham, NG80 1ZZ. © 2014 The word “EXPERIAN” and the graphical device are trade marks of Experian and/or its associated companies and may be registered in the EU, USA and other countries. The graphical device is a registered Community design in the EU. All rights reserved. 10/14 | www.experian.co.uk/marketingservices