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A framework for Linking Small Farmers to Markets Maximo Torero Session 4 Breakout Session 5 A framework for Linking Small Farmers to Markets1 Maximo Torero2 Paper presented at the IFAD Conference on New Directions for Smallholder Agriculture 24-25 January, 2011 International Fund for Agricultural Development Via Paolo Di Dono, 44, Rome 00142, Italy 1 Copyright of the paper is reserved by IFAD. The paper may not be reproduced in part or in full and in any form without written permission of the Conference Organisers at IFAD (e-mail: [email protected]) 2 The author is Division Director, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division at the International Food Policy Research Institute. Index 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 3 2. What we understand by Infrastructure, Institutions, Market Failure and Access Gap 5 2.1. Defining Infrastructure........................................................................................ 5 2.2. Defining Institutions ........................................................................................... 6 2.3. Defining the Market Failure or Access Gap ....................................................... 9 2.4. Integrating Definitions ........................................................................................ 9 3. How Do Institutions and Infrastructure work for development ................................ 12 3.1. Role of Institutions............................................................................................ 12 3.2. Role of Infrastructure ........................................................................................ 13 3.3. Role of Supply chain management as a way of markets to link different types of smallholders .................................................................................................................. 17 4. From Theory to Applied Policy Research: A research strategy ............................... 18 4.1. Needed steps ..................................................................................................... 19 4.1.1. Building a typology of microregion using an stochastic profit frontier approach 19 4.1.2. Identifying best practices in the provision of infrastructure and institutions for rural development. ............................................................................................... 22 4.1.3. Market Analysis: Identification of the main bottlenecks within the market chain generated by market and government failures ................................................ 24 4.1.4. Design alternative solutions for these different types of microregions and develop proposals for pilot projects to implement these suggested solutions. ......... 27 4.1.5. Local capacity building in prioritizing strategies and developing local support for the replication of successful pilot programs. and in monitoring and evaluation of alternative solutions ............................................................................ 27 4.1.6. Monitoring and Impact Evaluation Framework ........................................ 28 5. Rural Producer Organizations (RPOs) and Contract Farming as an option to resolve missing markers and market failures to link small holders to makets .............................. 29 5.1. Rural producer Organizations – Horizontal Coordination ................................ 29 5.2. Contract Farming– Vertical Coordination ........................................................ 31 6. Final comments ......................................................................................................... 34 7. References ................................................................................................................. 35 2 Institutions and Infrastructure for Linking Small Farmers to Markets Maximo Torero 1. Introduction Smallholder cultivation is the hallmark of agriculture in much of sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia, where intensity and density of poverty still remains high. In South Asia, for example, out of 125 million farm holdings, more than 80 per cent have an average size of 0.6 hectare and farmers with less than 2 hectares account for 40% of total food grain production. In sub-Saharan Africa, more than two-thirds of the holdings have an average size of less than one hectare and account for over 90% of agricultural output. In Latin America there is also a huge inequality in the distribution of land. FAO estimated that the largest 7% of land holdings in the region (those above 100 hectares) accounted for 77% of the land, while the smallest 60% had only 4% of the land (Morley, 2001). Most of these smallholders practice either subsistence farming or operate largely in local markets due to lack of connectivity to more lucrative markets at provincial, national or global levels. As a result, incentives remain weak, investments remain low, and so does the level of technology adoption and productivity, resulting into a low level equilibrium poverty trap. How can these small holders come out of this poverty trap? Two instruments appear critical to break this deadlock for the small holders: one is physical infrastructure such as information technology, roads, ports, etc. that connects smallholders to markets; and the other is the role of accompanying institutions that can reduce the marketing risk and transaction costs in the process of exchange between producers and consumers. Smallholders, due to their small surpluses in production, generally are exposed to higher degree of risk and transaction costs. So any innovative institutions that link ‘farms to markets’, reduce their transaction costs and minimize risk will help them to participate in markets. However, the exact nature of infrastructure and institutions that can enable the small holders transcend from subsistence farming of a village economy to actively participate in provincial, national and international markets, would vary from country to country and even from region to region within a country. This paper tries to develop a framework that can capture this heterogeneity and therefore identify and prioritize the types of institutions and infrastructure that each different type of small holder requires to better link to the markets. For simplicity lets assume we can capture the heterogeneity of small holders in three groups: a small group of farmers, which is competitive in world markets; another major group, which is engaged in primarily provincial and national markets; and finally those who are marginalized even from their provincial economy and operate locally at the village level. The key constraints that need to be addressed to enhance domestic, or international, market participation differ among these three groups. Agricultural policies 3 with respect to institutions and infrastructure must therefore take into account this distinction. The fundamental forces for change driving the global and national markets and their linkages differ within each of these types of farmers. But capturing the heterogeneity is not all what is needed. Appropriate policies of investment in infrastructure need to go together with well-functioning market institutions, to take advantage of market opportunities to sustain increased agricultural output and raise rural incomes. This is a critically important for small holders in countries recently experiencing market liberalization. When market information and markets themselves are not accessible to the small holders, no matter if hard infrastructure exists, farmers capture little of the value that they create. The demand and supply remain highly unstable, and so are the distribution costs for goods produced in rural areas. Simply put, markets often do not work for the small holders. This paper will provide strategic inputs to strengthen the institutional and infrastructure base that is necessary to respond to the heterogeneity among the smallholders and to support enhancement of the competitiveness of smallholders in rural areas in the production and marketing of their products. It also aims at improving the knowledge about the impact that complementary investment in rural institutions and infrastructure, both capital intensive infrastructure (roads, electricity, potable water and drainage, water for irrigation and telecommunications) and post harvest technologies (storage services, processing infrastructure, etc) may have in market development and in reducing poverty. The paper proceeds in the next section by detail definitions of what is meant by infrastructure, what we mean by institutions, and what is meant by market efficiency gap and real access gap. This is an attempt to clarify the use of these terms. The next section mover to the role of institutions and infrastructure for development is analyzed. Finally, the paper focus on a discussion of how to move from theory to applied policy taking into consideration scalability and heterogeneity of small farmers. 4 2. What we understand by Infrastructure, Institutions, Market Failure and Access Gap 2.1. Defining Infrastructure The world development report elaborated by the World Bank (1994) defines infrastructure in a concise manner, making reference to long-life engineering structures, equipment and facilities, and also the services that are derived from and utilized in production and in final household consumption. Other authors, like Ahmed and Donovan (1992), refute this type of infrastructure definition, indicating that the concept has evolved since the early work of Arthur Lewis and Albert Hirschman towards a more comprehensive definition that includes a wider range of public services that facilitate production and trade. In the case of agricultural infrastructure, Ahmed and Donovan (1992) recognize the growing importance of its role in economic development: the related literature includes agricultural research, extension services, financial institutions and irrigation as part of a wider concept of infrastructure. Authors such as Fosu et al. (1995), reflecting this broader definition, distinguish up to 11 components of agricultural infrastructure: irrigation and public access to water; means of transportation; storage services; commercial infrastructure; processing infrastructure; public services; agricultural research and extension services; communication and information services; land conservation services; credit and financial institutions; and, finally, health and education services. This listing makes reference to “rural infrastructure” before “agricultural infrastructure,” thus, as Fosu et al. state, the conjunction of infrastructure services includes items that not only facilitate the development of agricultural activities, but also rural activities and sometimes even urban activities. A similar classification of agricultural infrastructure developed earlier by Wharton (1967), identifies three categories: one that is capital intensive (like roads, bridges and dyers); one that is capital extensive (principally extension services or vegetable and animal sanitation services); and the institutional infrastructure (that consists of formal and informal institutions).2 In this research program we will try to concentrate on Wharton’s capital intensive infrastructure and on post harvest infrastructure which include some of the components of agricultural infrastructure identified by Fosu et.al. With respect to capital intensive infrastructure we will look into the following types of infrastructure: a) transport infrastructure (i.e. rural roads or unpaved roads), b) potable water, c) drainage, d) water for irrigation, e) electricity (interconnected and isolated), and f) telecommunications 2 Wharton was one of the first to emphasize the importance of infrastructure in the generation of positive externalities at the microeconomic level. This author recognized that agricultural development is not exclusively determined by the “economic behavior of the producers,” but also depends on the environment, which according to Wharton includes physical-climatic, socio-cultural and institutional components that form what he calls “the agricultural infrastructure.” 5 (telephone and rural cabins). Post harvest infrastructure will on the other hand include technologies that will allow small farmers to preserve their harvest as well as to add value to their crops. Examples of post-harvest infrastructure will include storage devices, commercial infrastructure, processing infrastructure, etc. However, it is important to maintain a wider definition and, whenever possible, evaluate the possible complementarities between this basic infrastructure and the remaining elements that constitute a more ample definition of rural infrastructure and other assets as human capital assets and social networks. 2.2.Defining Institutions The academic literature has not yet agreed on a specific definition of institutions (see Table 1 on a review of definitions). We adopt a definition that includes the Williamson (1985) and Northian (1990) transaction cost approach, which focuses on institutions as efficient solutions to organizational problems in a competitive framework. Rather than following the distinction of North (1990) between institutions and organizations we adopt an inclusive view in which institutions are defined as the structure of relations between individuals within the system of market interactions in which the players include producers, consumers and the state. As well as the players, this definition includes the rules of the game (relations between the players) that are organizations in North’s definition. Under the broad definition, institutions play five potential roles in strengthening markets for commodities produced, bought, and sold by smallholders: reducing transaction costs; managing risk; building social capital; enabling collective action; and redressing missing markets (figure 1). Empirical research on market institutions seeks to illuminate these five roles. It is increasingly clear that the institutional infrastructure to facilitate market exchange is a critically important area to countries recently experiencing the shortfalls of market liberalization, specifically for smallholder agriculture. When market information and markets themselves are not accessible to the rural poor, farmers capture little of the value that they create, demand and supply are highly unstable, and distribution costs for rurally produced goods are very high. Simply put, markets do not work for the very poor. 6 Figure 1. Institutions as Links in the Chain of Market Interactions Transaction costs Social interaction PRODUCER FIRM CONSUMER Norms Trust Rules Laws Codes of conduct STATE Source: Gabre-Madhin (2003). The high risks of production and cycles of over-supply and price depression create financial risks throughout the distribution chain that inhibit investment and access to capital. Monopolistic practices, corruption, and excessive regulations also add to the burden of the rural marketplace. The high costs, risks, and “friction” in rural agricultural markets prevents markets from achieving sufficient scale for efficiency and similarly prevent the low-cost and reliable supply of production inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and other goods to farmers. The very poor farmers also lack the political empowerment, market knowledge, and business knowledge to address these market roadblocks Thus, poor rural farmers lack the capacity to improve and influence the markets upon which their lives depend. But some of these assets can be developed through effective organization, technical training, and means for assembly and communication. 7 Table 1 Summary of Definitions of Institutions Authors Institutions as the players of the Game Nelson (1994), Institutions as the Rules of the Game (exogenously driven) North (1990) Definition Institutions refer to specific “players” or organizations such as industry associations, technical societies, courts, and government agencies “Institutions are “ the rules of the game in a society or, more formally, the humanly devised constraints that shape human interaction”. These constraints can be informal (sanctions, taboos, customs, traditions, and codes of conduct) or formal (constitutions, laws, property rights). North makes a critical distinction between institutions and organizations. He defines organizations as either political bodies (political parties, Senate, city council, regulatory agencies); economic bodies (firms, trade unions, cooperatives); social bodies (church, clubs, sport associations); and educational bodies (schools, universities), all as groups of individuals bound by some common purpose. Thus, in his view, the analysis of the strategies of individual players must be separated from the analysis of the underlying rules of the game. Institutions as In contrast to North, whose definition of the rules of the game can Equilibrium Strategies be considered as exogenously-driven (both in the sense of origin of Players as well as change through conscious third party design), a third view, defined as the “equilibrium of the game” notion of (Endogenouslyinstitutions. Schotter (1981) considers that institutions are determined rules) Schotter (1981), properties of equilibria of games and not properties of the Sugden (1986), and descriptions of the games. Similarly, Uphoff (1986) states that more recently by Aoki institutions are complexes of norms of behavior that persist over (1995, 2000) time, by serving collectively valued purposes. Institutions as Self- This approach views an institution as a “self-sustaining system of Sustaining Systems of shared beliefs” (p.21). In contrast to the rules-of-the-game theorists, who view the rules as exogenously given, this approach Shared Beliefs Aoki (2001) views the rules of the game as determined endogenously through the strategic interaction of agents, held in the minds of agents, and thus self-sustaining. Shared beliefs are a summary representation, or compressed information, of an equilibrium, out of the many possible. As such, an institution is the product of long-term experiences of a society of boundedly rational and retrospective agents (Kreps, 1990). Agents making strategic choices on the basis of shared beliefs jointly reproduce the equilibrium state and thus the institution becomes self-sustaining and the information compressed in it becomes taken for granted. In this way, although endogenously created, the institution becomes objectified (Aoki, 2001) Source: Gabre-Madhin (2003). 8 2.3.Defining the Market Failure or Access Gap A helpful concept in relation to access to infrastructure and institutions which incorporates the diversity between small holders is the distinction between the market efficiency gap from the true access gap (missing markets)3. The market efficiency gap is the difference between what markets are actually achieving under current conditions and what they could achieve if markets where working correctly. This gap can be bridged through more private provision of services, facilitated by effective competition, and by market-oriented policies and regulations that create a level playing field for new entrants. The only questions relate to how far the market can reach commercially, and how best to implement and sequence more competitive conditions. Here is where institutions could play a crucial role given that there is potential for markets to develop. The true access gap, on the other hand, recognizes that public intervention on infrastructure is still required to reach some areas and population groups that will not be served even with the most optimal, efficient and liberalized market conditions. There are people and places that remain beyond the limits of the market unless additional investments are mobilized. These investments could be interventions in the form of subsidies or other special incentives to encourage service providers to operate in these areas. The essential difference that exists between the market efficiency gap and the true access gap points to the conclusion that the two gaps must be addressed in different ways consistent with the heterogeneity of smallholders. Moreover if this is combined with the diversity among small holders, it is clear that different specific policy measures must be implemented to address the market efficiency gap for the rural market before the subsidies or other policy instruments to provide public goods (such as roads as well as key institutions) addressed to the real access gap can be effective in the long run. 2.4.Integrating Definitions Smallholder farmers within countries differ significantly between those competitive in world markets (rural world 1), those engaged in primarily local and national markets (rural world 2), and those who are marginalized even from their local economy (rural world 3). The basic issue is to increasingly integrate smallholder farmers into these markets. The conceptual challenge is shown in Figure 2 where the three rural worlds are identified according to their relation to different markets4. 3 4 The conceptual framework of the two gaps is developed in Navas, et.al (2002). This figure is a modified version from Orden, Torero, and Gulati (2004) 9 LOW COST AREAS Figure 2 Small farmers Heterogeneity INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Globally competitive and market oriented farmers Local market oriented farmers HIGH COST AREAS PROVINTIAL AND NATIONAL MARKE TS Subsistance farmers LOCAL MARKETS AND SELF CONSUMPTION HIGH INCOME SMALL FARMERS LOW INCOME SMALL FARMERS Figure 3 moves one step forwards and shows the interrelation between the different types of smallholders and how this relates to the market efficiency gap (green color) and the true access gap (yellow color). The subsistence farmers are the ones where the true access gap is much more relevant. On the contrary, the local market oriented farmers will fall more on what it was defined as a market efficiency gap, although some of them (i.e. the less developed with low income households and located in high cost areas), will also fall on a true access gap. Additionally and specifically related to the globally competitive and market oriented small holders, remain the issue of international policies on agriculture support and protection and the existence of technical regulations and standards. The technical regulations and standards pose challenges to smallholders to participate in markets just as high-value demands are creating potential new income streams. This can also be a type of market efficiency gap, as far as it reduces the participation of these smallholders in the domestic and global economy. The latter can be because of the lack of clear rules of the game and lack of good institutions to assess the costs associated with meeting domestic and international standards, and in assessing how benefits derived from international guidelines for regulation can be enhanced5. 5 For further details see Orden, Gulati, Torero (2004). 10 LOW COST AREAS Figure 3 Small Farmers and Access and Market Efficiency Gap Globally competitive and market oriented farmers Market Efficiency Gap Real Access Gap HIGH COST AREAS Local market oriented farmers Subsistance farmers HIGH INCOME SMALL FARMERS LOW INCOME SMALL FARMERS No access gap Market Efficiency Gap Real Access Gap Finally, Figure 4 integrates the heterogeneity of smallholders, their current relation to different markets, and their relation to the market efficiency gap and the true access gap. In addition the roles for the public and private sectors in creating the infrastructure and market institutions needed to lower transaction costs and enhance income-generating opportunities for the different types rural households is emphasized. Finally, supply chain management and specifically the rise of supermarkets are changing the institutional arrangements in the domestic markets of developing countries as a way to link different types of smallholders. This new dimension developed by the market is what we try to represent with the circular arrows linking the three types of farmers in Figure 4. Supply chain management, is playing a role in linking small holders to markets but at the same time market opportunities are also increasingly affected as in the case of international trade by technical regulations and standards, which pose challenges to smallholders. 11 LOW COST AREAS Figure 4 Integrating Heterogeneity, Market Access problems and the Role of Institutions and Infrastructure INTERNATIONAL MARKETS Globally competitive and market oriented farmers Market Efficiency Gap Real Access Gap Local market oriented farmers HIGH COST AREAS PROVINTIAL AND NATIONAL MARKE TS PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE INSTITUTIONS Subsistance farmers LOCAL MARKETS AND SELF CONSUMPTION HIGH INCOME SMALL FARMERS LOW INCOME SMALL FARMERS No access gap Market Efficiency Gap Real Access Gap 3. How Do Institutions and Infrastructure work for development 3.1.Role of Institutions Initially, it was thought that institutions would improve as a consequence of individuals self interest and therefore take care of transaction costs and information asymmetries. Although reality had shown that the presence of coordination failure, innovation failure and authority failure are behind the failure of institutions to emerge efficiently. The high risks of production and cycles of over-supply and price depression create financial risks throughout the distribution chain that inhibit investment and access to capital. Monopolistic practices, corruption, and excessive regulations also add to the burden of the rural marketplace. The high costs, risks, and “friction” in rural agricultural markets prevents markets from achieving sufficient scale for efficiency and similarly prevent the low-cost and reliable supply of production inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and other goods to farmers. The very poor farmers also lack the political empowerment, market knowledge, and business knowledge to address these market roadblocks Thus, poor rural farmers lack the capacity to improve and influence the markets upon which their lives depend. But some of these assets can be developed through effective organization, technical training, and means for assembly and communication. Institutions, as previously mention, play five potential roles in strengthening markets for commodities produced, bought, and sold by smallholders: reducing transaction costs; 12 managing risk; building social capital; enabling collective action; and redressing missing markets. It is increasingly clear that the institutional infrastructure to facilitate market exchange is a critically important area to countries recently experiencing the shortfalls of market liberalization, specifically for smallholder agriculture. When market information and markets themselves are not accessible to the rural poor, farmers capture little of the value that they create, demand and supply are highly unstable, and distribution costs for rurally produced goods are very high. Simply put, markets do not work very well for the very poor. The high risks of production and cycles of over-supply and price depression create financial risks throughout the distribution chain that inhibit investment and access to capital. Monopolistic practices, corruption, and excessive regulations also add to the burden of the rural marketplace. The high costs, risks, and “friction” in rural agricultural markets prevents markets from achieving sufficient scale for efficiency and similarly prevent the low-cost and reliable supply of production inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and other goods to farmers. The very poor farmers also lack the political empowerment, market knowledge, and business knowledge to address these market roadblocks Thus, poor rural farmers lack the capacity to improve and influence the markets upon which their lives depend. But some of these assets can be developed through effective organization, technical training, and means for assembly and communication. 3.2. Role of Infrastructure The majority of studies recognize that infrastructure investment has a strong impact on rural incomes and especially on smallholders. However, this literature has not been completely successful in assessing the benefits and costs of alternative infrastructure investment options or the causality of relations that generate higher rural incomes due to a better endowment of infrastructure services (see Table 2 for a summary of studies). The work carried out by Fan and Hazell (1999), Zhang and Fan (2000), Fan et.al (2000a), Fan et.al (2000b) and Fan et. al (2002) in India and China are some of the few studies that look into the relationships between investment in infrastructure, rural grow, poverty alleviation and the role of complementarity of investments. The problem with the lack of causal relationship knowledge between the investment in infrastructure services and the increase of income generating opportunities and welfare benefits of rural populations is that the possibility of developing specific policy recommendations is very limited. This problem normally results in policy recommendations that are directed towards a general increase in public infrastructure investment but lacks opinions about appropriate intervention strategies for each specific context. 13 Table 2 Summary of Studies that Measure the Impact of Access to Infrastructure 1. Impacts at the Global Level Authors Main findings Binswanger et.al Identified that the lack of roads is a significant barrier to the ability (1983) to respond to agricultural supply Queiroz and Working with the case of investment in the infrastructure of rural Gautam (1992) roads show that there are various indicators that confirm that investment in roads precedes economic growth. Moreover they show for India some complementarities with other assets. Literacy, agricultural rate of return and health indicator increases are associated with a rise in road network density Creightney (1993) Evaluate the impact of public investment upon aggregate demand and product growth. Binswanger et.al. (1993) Identified various links between infrastructure investment and growth that could occur simultaneously. For example, they mention how regions with better infrastructure assets could pressure for larger budget allocations that would guarantee them additional public infrastructure, generating an endogenous investment pattern Datt and Ravallion Using time series they contributed to the improved understanding (1996) of the causal relationship between infrastructure and growth, showing that the initial conditions in infrastructure development terms are very important for the Indian states during the period that the authors studied. Jalan and Analyze the existence of poverty traps where the less endowed Ravallion (1997) areas were not allotted the new public infrastructure. Blejer and Kan These authors also look in to the existence and nonexistence of (1984), Creightney “crowding-out” of private investment by public investment. They (1993) or Jalan and show that this effect is very improbable in rural areas, where the Ravallion (1997) relationship between public and private investment has to be very strong and complementary. Aschauer (1997) Demonstrated that changes in productivity (i.e., rate of return per unit of private capital and worker) are positively related to government infrastructure spending. Fan and Hazell Their studies in India and China are among the few works that (1999), Zhang and attempt to link infrastructure, rural growth and poverty alleviation, Fan (2000), Fan et. by highlighting the role of investment complementarities. Their al. (2000a), Fan et. research efforts show that infrastructure investments, particularly al. (2000b), and in irrigation, roads, electricity and telecommunications not only Fan et. al. (2002) contribute to growth in agricultural production, but also a reduction in rural poverty and regional inequality in these countries. 14 Table 2 (Cont.) Summary of Studies that Measure the Impact of Access to Infrastructure 2. Impacts at the Market or household level Authors Main findings Wharton (1967) His work was one of the first to emphasize the importance of infrastructure in the generation of positive externalities at the microeconomic level. This author recognized that agricultural development is not exclusively determined by the “economic behavior of the producers”, but also depends on the environment, which according to him, includes physical-climatic, socio-cultural and institutional components that form what he calls “the agricultural infrastructure”. Fosu et.al. (1995) Identified the importance of identifying direct and indirect effects in order to analyze the effects of public infrastructure on rural development and rural poverty. Escobal and These authors found this in the Peruvian case that a sufficient Torero (2000) endowment of public and private assets enables the potential negative effects of difficult geography to be overcome. van de Walle Asks whether or not infrastructure investment returns are lower for (2000) the poorest sectors Escobal, Saavedra Estimate the profitability of some key household assets from and Torero (2000) different income quintiles of the income distribution and find, for example, that the additional profitability of having an education along with having access to public goods like electricity or sanitation is somewhat higher for the richest than for the poorest income brackets. Mamatzakis Similarly to Escobal, Saavedra and Torero showed for Greece that (2003) public infrastructure serves as a complementary for private assets and inputs but it tends to replace agricultural employment. Esfahani and Point out, that although access to infrastructure affects Ramirez (2003) productivity, income, and economic growth; it also affects the supply and demand of infrastructure. By neglecting this simultaneity, there is a possibility of biasing estimated impacts. Ravallion (2003) Using information on China demonstrates the existence of “geographic externalities” that were derived from the interactions between the level and composition of local economic activity and private returns from the tenure of physical infrastructure and human capital. For the author, this interaction makes it evident that the lack of development in the rural sector is a result of inadequate investment in infrastructure and human capital, promoting these externalities Source: Escobal and Torero (2004). 15 Even though many authors recognize that the externalities resulting from infrastructure investment play a central role in rural development, there is little existing empirical evidence that substantiates the argument at the microeconomic level. Future empirical work to analyze rural households with different levels of access to public goods and services should allow for the study of the presence and importance of these externalities. Therefore, in order to completely understand the causal mechanisms that exist between rural infrastructure investments and changes in rural household behavior we will explore two mechanisms at the microeconomic level. The first mechanism that will be explored is how the infrastructure in an isolated and complementary manner, modifies the structure of income sources that are available to rural households. Also, subjected to these opportunity changes, we will analyze how this investment raises productivity and income levels within the framework of the chosen strategy. It is important to highlight that these analyzed mechanisms attempt to contribute to the understanding of only some of the causal mechanisms that operate when infrastructure endowments are augmented. We will focus on the impact that these investments have upon the arrival of new income generating opportunities that complement the incomes of independent agricultural workers. On the other hand, and in light of the scarce public fiscal resources available and on the role the government has to play in closing the real access gap in developing countries, knowing the relative profitability of each type of public infrastructure is critical. Even though, an important fact that has been found is that not all recipes are suitable for all countries and within countries. The potential best practice to reduce the real access gap in a large extent depends on the institutional framework existing in each country. Countries with sound regulatory institutions and legal frameworks can adopt some solutions that will be out of reach for countries with weak institutions. However there could be institutional designs that could be adequate to reduce the access gap while simultaneously developing the legal, institutional and regulatory framework needed to advance different strategies. With respect to the areas where the access gap to infrastructure is present forging privatepublic partnerships (PPP) seem to be the most efficient way of closing the access gap in all services covered. Public intervention alone is usually not cost effective and isolated private initiatives also fail to deliver all services. Despite the rise in private sector involvement in infrastructure provision, the overall investment levels particularly where subsistence small farmers fall are far from adequate. The need for the public sector to play a facilitating role has not been achieved. Since there is little evidence that rural infrastructure is commercially viable on a stand-alone basis, the role of the public sector needs to be reinvented. In addition, there are two other issues that need to be taken in consideration. The first one is the lack of coordination in public investments at the country, regional and donor level, where the linkages and complementarities of infrastructure investment have not been realized. As a result, it is common to find fragmented approaches, lacking sufficient attention for substantive policies and development issues. In fact, in many cases, access 16 to infrastructure has not been linked to poverty alleviation strategies or to the general development goals of countries. Therefore, it is necessary to take an integrated approach, even if the actual design may vary from country to country since ‘one size’ may not fit all. Secondly, investment in infrastructure in these areas is done from top to bottom rather than demand driven. At present, the estimation of rural infrastructure investment is generally based on the needs assessed for each sector at the national level, with little or no assessment of demand and coordination at local level where the service will ultimately be provided. More often than not, such investment assessments do not reflect the preferences of users of services and the contingencies of services. For instance, demand for secondary schooling may be contingent on access roads, and failing to coordinate these two in given circumstances may result in a mismatch between availability of a service and its actual use. On the other hand is important for communities to choose the technology they want to use, the service level they require and to especially have a clear understanding of long-term costs and maintenance implications so that communities can choose what is most appropriate for them under their budget constraints. In this respect there is evidence that if provided with appropriate information and technical support, communities can make informed choices about service options as well as clearly identify their willingness to pay, thereby assuming ownership and responsibility for the infrastructure. 3.3. Role of Supply chain management as a way of markets to link different types of smallholders Christopher (1998) defines supply chain management as: “The management of upstream and downstream relationships with suppliers and customers to deliver superior customer value at less cost to the supply chain as a whole.” Transaction cost economics also gives a theoretical framework for understanding the governance structure of the supply chain. Many authors point out that there is a continuum of vertical coordination, at one end is the spot market and on the other end is vertical integration as the case of Supermarkets. Between the two extremes are hybrid forms, which can be divided into specification contracts, relation-based alliances and equity-based alliances with different coordination characteristics of direction and control with regard to interdependence, information sharing, duration of relationship (Peterson et al., 2001). Although relationships in supply chains can range from arm's length relationship based on vertical restriction to vertical integration, as identified by Kaufman (2000) there are four major goals pursued by retailers through the use of supply change management: (1) lowered operating costs, (2) decreased procurement costs, (3) reducing marketing costs, and (4) lower distribution costs. All of the above will help to link smallholders to markets and therefore move upward from local to provincial, national and in the extreme to international markets (see Figure 4). 17 For poor farmers, the benefits of new supply chain management are that it can provide information on new products, input, credit and extension services, and marketing services. These can ease the resource constraint that farmers face otherwise, and reduce production and marketing risks for farmers. Some services such as information and extension services that private supermarket supply chains may provide to farmers can also save scarce public resources. Because of supermarkets, agents such as traditional vendors based in villages and sub-districts, and wholesalers based in districts and big cities, are usually bypassed in the modern procurement system, reducing the transaction costs smallholders will normally bear.6 Changes in procurement systems toward integrated supply chains can have important implications for the product quality demanded from rural producers and on their bargaining power. In Latin America, the shift from reliance on traditional wholesalers to centralized procurement and specialized wholesalers gave supermarkets “the incentive and capacity to impose standards”. Similarly in Indonesia, supermarket chain such as Hero and hypermarket chain such as Giant rely on specialized vendors. This paves the way for imposing standards and product safety measures in farm production. Such output control affects production costs and requires new management ability. And while control on output quality can deliver products according to the preference of the end consumers, control on value chain can also act as entry barriers for potential competitors and pave the way for monopolistic rents affecting the returns earned by smallholders with limited bargaining power. Finally, for consumers, the new supply chain arrangements of supermarkets are important since they are the closest to urban consumers and in a demand driven diversification, supermarket/retail chains are the first agent to know the consumers’ preferences and act accordingly. Supermarkets have emerged as one of the most important buyers in some developing countries, particularly for the high-value products meeting specific consumer demands related to production process and quality. In Latin America, supermarkets buy 2.5 times more produce from local farmers than the region exports to the rest of the world (Reardon and Berdegue, 2002). Supermarkets are now a strong growth retail sector in Asia and Africa, where smallholder agriculture is concentrated. However, supermarkets can also influence consumer preferences by introducing new products and packaging. Therefore, there is a two-way interaction between consumers and supermarkets. 4. From Theory to Applied Policy Research: A research strategy This paper tries to lay out a framework for developing a strategy based on which specific country projects will be implemented. Because of the heterogeneity of the smallholders and the complementarities between institutions and infrastructure, the activities to be implemented will differ across different types of small holders (subsistence farmers, local market oriented farmers, and globally competitive and market oriented farmers) which we assume will be clustered in small geographic spaces or micro regions within the country and between countries. Thus the objective is to design a framework for policy interventions that overcome current bottlenecks faced by each of the different types of 6 See Chowdhury, Gulati and Ramachander (2004) for more details. 18 small holders (micro regions) and which incorporates both dimensions previously mentioned: heterogeneity and complementarities between institutions and infrastructure. The research program aims also not only to develop the framework but also to validate it through empirical research and pilot projects in specific areas which, once validated, can be transferred to other regions. 4.1.Needed steps The research strategy proposed involves the following five steps (see Figure 4): o Identification of different types of rural small holders (typology of microregions) in terms of their characteristics and development constraints and options. o Identifying best practices in the provision of infrastructure and institutions for rural development o Market Analysis: Identification of the main bottlenecks within the market chain generated by market and government failures o Design alternative solutions for these different types of small holders based on national and international best practices and when not existent we will develop proposals for pilot projects for suggested solutions where necessary. o Local capacity building in prioritizing strategies and developing local support for the replication of successful pilot programs. o Monitoring and evaluation of alternative solutions 4.1.1. Building a typology of microregion using an stochastic profit frontier approach The comparative advantages of rural microregions and households are determined by many factors, among the most important of which include the biophysical factors determining agricultural potential (e.g., climate, topography, soils, presence of pests and diseases)7, access to markets and infrastructure, access to services and organizations, and population density (Pender, et al. 1999; Pender, et al. 2001a, 2001b; Pender, et al. 2004). A major caveat encountered when designing a comprehensive typology of the microregions is therefore dealing with the difference between the economic potential of an area and its current observed status. For instance, a detailed diagnosis describing the present situation of local economies will help to identify the most deprived areas (i.e. poverty maps), but some of these areas might have already reached their maximum economic potential given current conditions, and short run investments will have little or no impact on the welfare of the local small farmers. Hence, for policy making, a useful typology of local communities needs to differentiate and combine the notions of current 7 See Escobal and Torero; (2000) for effects of geography on heterogeneity. 19 status and optimal potential of famers. In other words, it has to take into account the idea that agents’ attempt to optimize, but do not always succeed. The stochastic frontier approach provides an ideal framework to build the typology. Conceptually, it is developed from a theory of producer behavior in which the motivation is the standard optimization criteria (minimize costs or maximize profits), but in which success is not guaranteed. The associated estimation procedures allow for failures in efforts to optimize and different degrees of success between producers. This opens up the possibility of analyzing the determinants of variation in the efficiency with which producers pursue their objectives. Taking the farm as an example, the stochastic frontier approach accounts for the fact that, conditional on geographic location, elements such as prices, biophysical conditions, and (in the short run) fixed inputs are exogenous to the farmer’s decision process. Hence, holding this factors fixed there exists an optimal production technology and production plan that generates the maximum profit the farmer can obtain. With this approach it is possible to identify where the profit frontier lies, and how much of the difference between it and observed profits (i.e. profit loss) can be explained by the farmer’s choices resulting in profit inefficiencies. Adding the stochastic component allows for a better fit to the farm production process, which is very sensitive to unpredictable changes in exogenous conditions, like weather or international prices. In this context, profit inefficiency is defined as the monetary loss which results from not operating at the frontier given the prices and levels of fixed production factors faced by the farm. Let x denote a (1 ×m) vector of variable and quasi-fixed inputs and y denote a (1 × q) vector of multiple outputs involved in the farm production process. Let z denote a (1 × r) vector of environmental variables that, though not directly determining the farmer’s profits, could affect the farm’s performance8. We will discuss later in this section our criteria to place specific variables as elements of x or z.9 Let ⊂ be the set of feasible production plans of the farm. We define a measure of , ∈ output technical inefficiency δ (Farrell 1957) for some production plan such that: δ0 = δ(x0,y0 |P) ≡ sup{δ | (x0,y0) ∈P,δ > 0} For (x0,y0) ∈ P,δ(x0,y0 |P) ≥ 1. (1) 8 In some cases, prices for certain inputs may not exist (or are not available to the analyst), particularly when studying rural poor populations in developing countries. Active markets and monetary transactions for land or weather-based insurance, for instance, are rare in these settings, so it is extremely difficult to find a reliable price for land (of varying qualities) and weather (and climate-risk) preferences. Under these conditions, we believe elements like land size, climatic and biophysical conditions should be included in x in order to capture their direct impact on production as fixed or quasi-fixed inputs, even though the argument can be made that these variables capture failures in the land and risk-coping markets to justify their inclusion in z. 9 Deprins and Simar (1989) and Kumbhakar and Lovell (2000) discuss the rationale for placing certain variables as elements of x or z, admitting this issue is frequently a judgment call. In many cases, it is not obvious whether an exogenous variable is a characteristic of production technology or a determinant of productive efficiency. 20 We now define the restricted profit function π(p, z, δ) as the maximum profit attainable by a farm with characteristics z, facing output prices p ∈ P (z) and input prices w ∈ W (z): Π , , ≡ sup , : , (2) Let πi be the observed profits for farmer i. The analyst is confronted with a set of observations (πi,pi,wi,zi) for i =1,...,n, which are realizations of identically, independently distributed random variables with probability density function f(π, p, w, z). This function has support over . We assume z is not independent from (π, p, w), i.e. f(π, p, w | z) f(π, p, w). This means that the constraints on farmers’ choices of prices p and w, and on observed profits π, due to the environmental variables z the farms face operate through the dependence of (π, p, w) on z in f(π, p, w, z). There exist several ways to formulate the model such that the production set is dependent on z (Coelli, Rao, and Battese 1998), however, we consider it is more appropriate given the empirical setup we are analyzing to assume the environmental variables z influence the mean and variance of the inefficiency process, but not the boundary of its support. Hence, in our formulation the conditioning in f(δi | zi) operates through the following mechanism: δi = exp(ziβ + εi) (3) where β is a vector of parameters, and εi is a continuous i.i.d. random variable, independent of zi.10 We assume the term εi is distributed N(0, ) with left truncation at −ziβ for each i. Because the effect of covariates z operates through the dependence between π and z induced by 3, these assumptions provide a rationale for second-stage regressions. Kumbhakar and Lovell (2000) and Kumbhakar (1996) provide the typical setup in these cases, defining the stochastic profit frontier function as: πi = g(pi,wi) exp(νi − ξi) (4) where νi is the stochastic noise error and xii is a non-negative random variable associated with inefficiencies in production. Then the profit efficiency of farm i can be defined as: exp | | exp ∑ | (5) where Xdi are exogenous (to the production process) variables characterizing the environment in which production occurs and that can be associated with inefficiencies of the farm. As noted by Simar and Wilson (2007), regressing efficiency estimates obtained from maximum likelihood estimation of a parametric model for Π(p, w, δ) will very likely 10 See Simar and Wilson (2007) for estimation in a semi-parametric setup. 21 result in problems for statistical consistency because the covariates in the second-stage regression (z) are correlated with the one-sided error terms from the first stage (in order for there to be a motivation for a second stage).11 Consequently, the likelihood that is maximized is not the correct one, unless one takes account of the correlation structure. In order to do so we estimate (4) in the first stage modeling heteroskedasticity in the onesided error term ξ as a linear function of a set of covariates. The variance of the technical inefficiency component is then modeled as exp (6) We use maximum likelihood estimation and a translogarithmic profit function correcting for heteroskedasticity as shown in (6), and then proceed to the second stage estimation of the technical efficiency term ξ on the environmental variables z. 4.1.2. Identifying best practices in the provision of infrastructure and institutions for rural development. There is no universal remedy to the existing problems in access to infrastructure and institutions and the best practice depends on the degree of institutional development in each country. Some strategies that could be appropriate in one country may not work in countries that lack the required legal framework and institutions because the advantages and potential of each strategy are heavily dependent on the country’s institutional environment. Although countries that have advanced the most in market-oriented reforms have made progress in closing both the urban and rural access gap, reforms alone are not enough to provide complete access in remote poor rural areas. Some sort of public intervention is needed to close this gap. Moreover forging private-public partnerships (PPPs) seems to be the most efficient way of closing the access gap. Public intervention alone is usually not cost effective, and isolated private initiatives also fail to deliver all services. Despite the rise in privatesector involvement in infrastructure provision and institutions, the overall investment levels, particularly in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa, are far from adequate and much lower in comparison to Asia and Latin America. The goal for the public sector to play a facilitating role has not been achieved. Because there is little evidence that rural infrastructure and institutions are commercially viable on a stand-alone basis, the role of the public sector must be reinvented. However a detail review of the existing best practices will allow us to identify institutional designs that could be adequate to reduce the access gap while simultaneously developing the legal, institutional and regulatory framework needed to advance different strategies. 11 The errors and the covariates in the first stage will not be independent if the covariates in the second stage are correlated with the covariates in the first stage, which occurs in most empirical applications. 22 Tipology of Microregions Rural World 1 Rural World 2 Rural World 3 Replicable solutions within each rural world Tool Box of National, International and new solutions identified through pilot projects Design alternative institutional solutions based on local and international best practices, and developing proposal to implement and evaluate them, and applying them in each rural worlds according to the problems identified in the market chain analysis Identifying strengths and weakenesses within market chains, identifying market and government efficiency failures, and missing markets in the provision of infrastructure and institutions for market development. Figure 5: Framework of Analysis Heterogeneous Development Strategy for a Heterogeneous Rural Worlds Networks with policy makers and local govt. CAPACITY BUILDING 23 4.1.3. Market Analysis: Identification of the main bottlenecks within the market chain generated by market and government failures We propose to concentrate on three major aspects: (1) Identifying existing best practices in the provision of public infrastructure and institutions; (2) identification of the main bottlenecks within the market chains for priority commodities generated by market and government failures; and (3) evaluating possible public investment decisions in infrastructure and institutions proposed as solutions to bottlenecks. When undertaking market chain analysis, we attempt to break the value creation by smallholders into a sequence of activities from raw materials to final consumption. From the perspective of the smallholder and of the sector in which he is producing, a market chain analysis is a good tool for understanding what the strengths and weaknesses are; from the economic sector perspective, a market chain analysis supports a better understanding of the microregion’s competitive position vis-à-vis its key customers and suppliers. After identifying the various activities performed by the smallholder, we then attempt to identify the key resources and capabilities he uses in performing those activities. We can then proceed to an evaluation of those resources and capabilities in terms of how or if they create a potential comparative advantage and if so what the small holder needs to realize that comparative advantage. Assessing the constraints to productivity growth and changes in livelihood activities is essential to identifying the interventions necessary to raise productivity of any of the key commodities or non-farm activities within each microregion. We begin by considering bottlenecks in agriculture. Reviewing and analyzing the set of agronomic and infrastructure constraints affecting the production of key commodities within each zone can do this. Naturally, the overriding set of constraints will differ both by and within each of the different types of microregions. Types of bottlenecks to analyze will potentially include: market and institutional (market information systems; policies; access to finance and credit); infrastructure (transportation costs and roads); quality issues (grades and standards, food safety); production constraints (natural resource degradation, conflicting rights to resources, land tenure insecurity, farmers’ lack of information about or confidence in promising technologies, farmers’ resource constraints) and post-harvest technologies (processing, storage, bulking). a. Market and Institutional As previously mentioned institutions play five potential roles in strengthening markets for commodities produced, bought, and sold by smallholders: reducing transaction costs; managing risk; building social capital; enabling collective action; and redressing missing markets. Therefore we will concentrate in identifying which are the main bottlenecks in the micro regions under study and if these problems are or could be solved through any of the market institutions outlined in the following table. 24 Table 3: Roles and Types of Market Institutions relevant for Agriculture Role of Market Institution Type of Market Institution i. Reducing transaction Market information/intelligence systems costs Auctions and exchanges Grades and standards Legal enforcement mechanisms ii. Reducing market risk Forward and options contracts Vertical integration schemes iii. Increasing social capital Producer marketing associations and cooperatives Trader networks iv. Enabling collective Producer marketing associations and cooperatives action Industry groups User groups v. Redressing missing Warehouse receipt systems markets for credit Contract farming Credit guarantee systems SACCOs and cooperative banks Source: Were (2003). In addition it is also important to take into consideration issues related to the link between property rights and investment decisions. In these sense the theoretical literature discussed three channels (see Besley, 1995): The first channel is the risk of expropriation which can be summarized as how the insecurity is like a random tax on returns of investment. In this sense there is a level effect, i.e. an overall reduction in investment and a composition effect, i.e. invest in assets which are less subject to expropriation like investing in more portable assets (e.g. livestock). The second channel is gains from trade of land. When incomplete property rights exist this will impair trade in land, i.e. to sell or to rent. Improving possibilities for trade in land through titling programs can improve investment incentives when the gains from trade raider the marginal returns to land. As shown in Besley (1995) investor faces stochastic trading opportunities and improvements in rights are modeled as reductions in transaction costs and therefore there is more land trading after rights are improves. Finally the third channel is Collateral and Credit Markets. This third channel assumes two things, first that improvements in land rights encourage lenders to recognize land as collateral, and borrowers are dependent on access to credit for their investment in the land. The function of collateral in lending is discussed extensively by Binswanger et. al. (1985), Barro (1976), and Plout (1985). 25 b. Infrastructure One of the major bottlenecks or risks faced by smallholders is the lack of an appropriate infrastructure. It is of crucial importance to analyze the existing bottle necks of infrastructure and especially the potential roles of the public and private sectors in creating the infrastructure and market institutions needed to lower transaction costs and risks and enhance income-generating opportunities for smallholder producers. o Capital Intensive infrastructure While the role of rural capital-intensive (roads, electricity, water for irrigation and telephones) infrastructure in linking smallholders to markets and the effect on poverty alleviation are well documented, the size of the impact of alternative types of rural investment depends on local conditions and circumstances. Therefore it is important to evaluate benefits and costs to rank alternative rural investment options and assess their complementarities. Econometric analysis of existing community and household survey data will be carried out to measure the production, productivity, income diversification and poverty impacts of alternative types of public investment. These can then be compared with costs, which then can guide public investment decisions. The analysis will include both direct and indirect effects, which is necessary to fully capture the benefits of public investments. Expanding supply without worrying about the limitations of the local market can have a serious negative effect on local prices. At the same time if there are unemployed local resources, local government investment programs or rapidly growing non-farm activities are likely to have a big and favorable impact on local farmers. o Post-harvest technologies With the expansion of international food trade and the continued escalation in population growth, global consumer demand for larger quantities of high quality and low cost processed foods has created considerable interest and investment in the development of new or improved post-harvest technologies. This is particularly important for developing countries where post-harvest losses of cereals are between 10-20% and of fruits and vegetables as high as 20-100%. In the past, post-harvest research used to focus on smallscale farmers who needed to preserve their harvest to ensure food security for the household but new, innovative post-harvest systems are allowing farmers to generate more income by adding value to their crops. These systems also allow the generation of off-farm employment for people involved in the processing, transportation and marketing of food products. Efficient post harvest systems are particularly important as competition for land and water increase and, with migration of rural people to urban centers, there are likely to be fewer farmers producing food for more consumers. Agricultural trade opportunities are also increasingly affected by technical regulations and standards, simultaneously with domestic markets seeing growth of vertically integrated firms. In each case, the technical regulations and standards pose challenges to market participation by smallholder’s just as high-value demands are creating potential new income streams (See Reardon and Berdegue (2002). Assessments are needed of the costs associated with 26 meeting domestic and international standards and how benefits derived from international guidelines for regulation can be enhanced. 4.1.4. Design alternative solutions for these different types of microregions and develop proposals for pilot projects to implement these suggested solutions. Once the major bottlenecks are identified for each of the micro regions the exhaustive review of existing best practices both local and in other countries will give the necessary inputs to identify a menu of possible solutions that can be implemented. This effort will be demand-driven, and will involve close consultation with local policy makers, leaders of farmer organizations and technical assistance organizations, and other key stakeholders to identify options that are politically and socially feasible as well as economically advantageous. Examples of possible pilot projects could include designing better ways to provide electricity subsidies in areas where access gap is present with price discrimination schemes based on information provided by pre-pay electric meters, implementing strategies for diffusion of technology such as fertilizers or improved seeds; pilots to provide access to infrastructure such as rural telephones and electricity, or to design mechanisms to maintain rural roads; information centers to reduce market asymmetries; community banking experiences to mobilize saving and increase credit; strategies to improve water management; etc. In some cases the solutions may be simple and therefore easily implemented, but in most of the cases they won’t be simple and alternative experimental solutions need to be developed. In these cases, proposals for these pilot studies will be developed and we will search for funding to carry out and evaluate those pilots. This set of solutions will constitute a menu from which we can select for each micro region the solution or the combination of solutions that we believe need to be implemented in order to solve the major bottlenecks inhibiting microregion development. The activity approach to identifying investments outlined above may highlight some common bottlenecks that constrain a number of different production activities. For example, if lack of roads and weak marketing institutions constrain growth of one promising commodity in a region then them probably also constrain most other commodities grown in the same region as well as local manufacturing and other non-farm activities. Investments that release these constraints can therefore have a broader impact than just for the priority commodities or activities considered, and hence fall in the category of thematic investments. Some investments also enhance broader development options, including opportunities in the non-farm economy. These include investments in roads, education, health and rural finance. Analyzing these kinds of thematic investments requires a cross section econometric analysis of household surveys including complementary interaction effects. 4.1.5. Local capacity building in prioritizing strategies and developing local support for the replication of successful pilot programs. and in monitoring and evaluation of alternative solutions 27 The approaches outlined above should help inform the selection, by development domain, of priority activity-oriented and thematic investments in institutions and infrastructure, and provide some assurance that if appropriately implemented, key strategic goals will be achieved at the national and regional levels. But implementation needs to ensure that investments come together in ways that are appropriate to local conditions and that fit with the development strategies that make sense to local people. The challenge is to interface the inherent top-down decisions associated with many public investments with the bottom up interests of local people. This reconciliation depends fundamentally on involving local governments and communities in decisions about what to invest in, where and how. But some a priori guidelines can also be obtained for planning purposes by analyzing the kinds of development options or livelihood strategies that are available to communities located in different microregions. 4.1.6. Monitoring and Impact Evaluation Framework A monitoring and evaluation framework is key to a needed learning process in development strategy. It serves to assess progress against stated goals, and also to help identify weaknesses and strengths in past approaches and hence what might be improved in the future. For these purposes, the selection of indicators has to be linked to the analytical framework used in the strategizing process. This is particularly critical for providing a basis for analyzing cause and effect relationships, and for identifying why goal indicators (such as poverty) changed the way they did, how much of the change was due to plan interventions, and what could be done better in the future. The evaluation methodology will allow us to obtain credible and transparent estimates of the impacts of the proposed solutions to the bottlenecks identified. The objective of impact assessment for any social program is to estimate the beneficiaries’ state after program completion relative to their hypothetical state had they not participated in the program. Given that it is not possible to observe the beneficiaries in the counterfactual condition of not having participated in the program, it is necessary to use a control group of non-participants, chosen such that they adequately reflect a hypothetical situation of beneficiaries under the non-treatment condition. If the control group is not adequately selected and does not have characteristics similar to those of the beneficiaries, outcomes that result from pre-existing differences between treatment and control units can be mistakenly attributed to the program. The resulting selection bias confounds a great number of quasi-experimental estimates of program effects, particularly in large-scale interventions. In some of the interventions, random assignment to treatment and control groups from the potential population of beneficiaries is envisaged to allow us to construct an appropriate counterfactual by ensuring that, on average, those who are exposed to the selection problems that plague quasi-experimental studies, particularly important for looking at technology adoption since there are likely to be important unobservable differences 28 between users and non-users. The randomization will take place at different levels according to each of the different interventions. Of course, the ability to pursue such a randomized design will require the active support of local policy makers and other key stakeholders for this approach. This will build upon the involvement of these stakeholders in identifying and implementing the set of options to be tested, but will also require capacity building to increase the understanding of key stakeholders of issues affecting program evaluation and why a randomized design is desirable. In the case randomization is not possible other methods as matching could be used. In this method a relevant control is assigned to each beneficiary, an individual who does not have access to the benefits of the program but who is “very similar” to him. The similarity should be with regard to the characteristics that are important to determine the variable or indicator that is being assessed. For example, if we have a household with access to telephone we will have to find another household in a similar community and with similar socioeconomic characteristics and household composition, to be his “control partner”. This is done with the idea that this action may reflect the well being that the household with access might have had if he had no access. Once the matching is done among the household with access and controls, the medium impact of the program may be estimated as the simple or weighted average of the impact for each matching couple. There are different techniques for the matching method, as well as forms to interpret what is to be “most similar”. We will use several of them as a sensitivity test to our results. Once the control groups are identified the parameter to be estimated is the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATET), or just “treatment on the treated”. This parameter indicates the average effect of the program on current participations. In terms of notation it is: TT E (i | Di 1) E (Y1i Y0i | Di 1) (3) where i is the individual, i is the difference in outcomes between a world where that individual participates and a unit where it does not, Di is a dummy variable for current participants, so that Di=1 for units that participate in the program and Di=0 otherwise, E denotes de expectations operator, where the expectations are conditional on the condition to the right of the vertical bar (“|”). 5. Rural Producer Organizations (RPOs) and Contract Farming as an option to resolve missing markers and market failures to link small holders to makets 5.1. Rural producer Organizations – Horizontal Coordination As shown in the previous sections, it is almost general consensus that, among other forces, globalization will generate an increase in food prices. There are stark differences 29 across developing countries and their ability to benefit from this market opportunity, mainly because of the differences in capacity for meeting international food safety standards (Athudkorala and Jayasuriya 2003). The ability to meet high food safety and quality standards is lowest in smallholder agriculture because of the scale economies. The most important reason is the inability of the smallholder dominated production systems to meet the food safety and quality requirements of the rich country markets (UmaliDeininger and Sur 2006). Moreover, underdeveloped physical structure, limited supply of power and irrigation, limited number and narrower spread of pre-coolers, cold storages and refrigerated transport vehicles and accredited certification agencies. Most importantly, these standards require a high degree of information on requirements related to inputs, packaging, etc. that is costly to obtain and process. The creation of producer organizations is the most common solution to share the fixed costs necessary for small holders to link to dynamic markets. The RPOs is a form of collective action that will both improve the farmers’ access to credit, information, and improved varieties of crops. Economies of scale in production are different from economies of scale in marketing, which are dominant in high value export markets. A product may not have economies of scale in the production process, but its marketing costs may show economies of scale. Conceptually, wherever there are economies of scale, be it in production or marketing, producers will have incentives for collective action, generally in the form of producer associations. Producer associations solve the problem of atomized producers, allowing to exploit economies of scale in marketing. It is less costly to get international certifications of quality and hygiene for exports for a centralized producer association, who can also devote resources to get relevant information on current legal and technical issues in the targeted markets (for instance, limits of chemicals). The use of better technology will reduce the post-harvest losses. In addition, by negotiating in block, farmers get better conditions: higher prices for their products, lower prices for their inputs. Furthermore, transport costs can be dramatically reduces by synchronizing demand for transport services. Another consequence is the creation of on-site packaging and other added-value activities, promoting rural non-farm economies As could be expected, the literature has found ample evidence that access to developed country markets provides higher revenues. The export of horticultural production in Guatemala generated gross margins per hectare 15 times as large as maize production and that the gross margins per labor day were twice as large (von Braun and Immink 1994). Mc Culloch and Ota (2002) horticultural export growers have higher incomes after controlling for farm size, education, irrigation, and other factors. What is not clear in every case is whether the increases in revenues are high enough to compensate the higher costs associated with these activities. Beyond transaction costs (including the 30 administrative costs of the cooperative) there are costs directly related to learning and adopting the new technologies. Over the past decade, many governments and donor agencies have shown renewed interests in RPOs as means to provide services to households in rural communities. This was recently re-affirmed in the World Development Report (2008) which emphasizes the important role of these organizations in providing services to farmers in the face of market and state failure. This interest is in some cases driven by the rapid and spontaneous expansion of these organizations, such as in several countries of West-Africa where about half of villages surveyed in 2002 were found to have at least one such RPO. In some other cases, these organizations (re-) develop as a response to government policies to promote them. Such is the case in several East-African countries. In Ethiopia for instance, the federal Government aims to provide cooperative services to 70% of all farm households by 2010. Despite a growing number of documented case-studies, there are very limited empirical assessments of these organizations and the extent to which they can effectively support smallholders as a way to target poverty. 5.2. Contract Farming– Vertical Coordination Contract farming is an economic institution that responds to imperfections in the credit, insurance, information, inputs, and raw product markets; and to transaction costs related to search, screening, and transfer of goods, bargaining and enforcement (Key and Runsten 1999). This institution has the potential to incorporate low-income growers (mostly small landholders) into the modern agricultural sectors because it is a source of credit, insurance, and information for the contracted farmers. On the other hand, it arises as a profitable strategy for large firms that need to ensure a steady supply of raw materials meeting certain quality standards. Therefore, contract farming rarely appears in the staple food industry, but is relatively common for industrial crops, which are destined to high-income consumers who are willing to pay a premium for quality and safety standards (Minot 1986).12 The case of contract farming, which usually involves a large-scale buyer that needs to ensure a steady supply of raw materials meeting certain quality standards, has captured the attention in the last decades. Advocates of this kind of institutional arrangement see contract farming as a means to incorporate small farmers into growing markets for processed goods and export commodities. Because the contracts often involve the provision of seed and fertilizer on credit, technical assistance, and a guaranteed price at harvest, this form of vertical coordination simultaneously removes a number of constraints on small-farm productivity, including risk and access to inputs, credit, and information. 12 Minot, Miyata, and Hu (2007) analyze the case of apple and onion contract farmers in China. They find that apple growers benefit from higher yields, while onion growers benefit from higher price. 31 Several studies clearly point out significant income gains to farmers participating in vertical coordination arrangements in high value commodities (Minot et. al. 2006; Roy and Thorat 2008; and Birthal et al. 2005). Other studies show the important role of contract farming in reducing risk for small farmers (Ramaswami et al. 2006) as well as enabling them to meet the stringent food safety standards in high value markets (Okello et al. 2006; Narrod et al. 2006; Roy and Thorat 2008, Mergenthaler et. al. 2007). Miyata et al. 2007 shows evidence that in China contract apple growers benefit from higher yields, presumably due to technical assistance from contractors, while contract green onion growers receive higher prices. Several studies, however, confirm the disadvantage of the small farmers with regard to transaction and marketing costs in relation to the larger farmers (Okello et al. 2006; Rich and Narrod 2006). Thus, the linkage with small farmers has to be innovative to reduce the transaction and marketing costs of dealing with a large group of small farmers (Minot and Roy 2006; Gulati et al. 2006). Where there are scale diseconomies, producer or marketing organizations have been attempted (Roy and Thorat 2008; and Narrod et al. 2006). Contract farming with a large group of small farmers has often taken the form of a vendor system to overcome the problem of high transaction costs (Chowdhury et al. 2005; Birthal et al. 2005). In the absence of laws and institutions supporting contracts in developing countries, enforcement of contracts and incidence of mistrust has at times been a problem (Singh 2002; Dev and Chandrasekhar 2004). Contract farming has therefore shown to be an effective way of integrating farmers into domestic and international markets; its benefits have gone mainly to medium-sized and relatively more educated farmers. The reasons why smaller and less educated farmers have been excluded, however, remain ambiguous. The most commonly cited reasons are size limitations and fixed costs, as well as limited power of small farmers in contract enforcement, which may limit small farmers’ ability to invest in such arrangements or benefit from them. While for small farmers technological barriers to contract farming are real and important, it is crucial to highlight evidence which shows that incentives-based problems are partially responsible for the failure of contract farming. In the case of rural non-farm enterprises the institutional arrangements by which these firms have moved beyond direct sale to final consumers include subcontracting, franchising, flexible specialization, and a consortium approach. Subcontracting has been the most prevalent especially in Asia. In understanding the potential benefits of institutional arrangements as contract farming, it would important to consider value chains analysis. Interest in rural supply chains has expanded rapidly over the past several decades as it helps map the network of related vertical supply channels linking input suppliers, processors, and distributors together in systems that take products from raw materials through processing and distribution and on to final consumption. This facilitates the understanding, diagnostics and intervention design in complex rural networks and where in the value chain market failures are binding and institutional arrangements are potentially effective. 32 A potential advantage of this institutional arrangement is that they allow for greater specialization along the value chain, which often proves to be important in improving productivity. In particular, in the case of smallholders vertical integration would allow farmers to specialize in purely agricultural activities, in which most probably lay their comparative advantage. In this way other decisions and activities leave the small farm. For example, in the case of contract farming, marketing, financial, and technical, safety and quality decisions are carried out by the large contractor, who is in a better position to allocate skilled labor to those activities as well as undertake needed investments. In sum, it seems institutional arrangements allow for productive complementarities between large and small units and also between rural and urban based enterprises. Moreover, it is known that nontraditional crops need a higher level of financial resources, and agroindustrials are well suited to act as lenders to growers. This is so because of their superior ability to monitor and enforce credit contracts compared to banks and MFIs, and lower default rates. In first place, given their normal business activities, monitoring is less costly for agroindutrials than for banks. In second place, other than legal action (financially and socially costly, as well as ineffective), they can threat to stop doing business with the farmers. There is a trade-off between the benefits of lending to small and large landholders. In first place, those willing to pay the most for credit are smallholders, because they are generally unable to self-finance and their access to formal loans is restricted. However, they also have higher risk of default and transaction costs than large landholders, what makes lending to smallholders less profitable. In a similar fashion to access to credit, agroindustrials are better suited to provide insurance to small landholders than insurance companies. Insurance provision is necessary for the small holder to produce the non-traditional crops that the agroindustrial demands, because these crops are more risky than traditional crops. They not only imply higher costs, more variable yields, and more variable prices, but also higher variability of market supply and thin local markets. In practice, surplus production in one region can hardly compensate for deficit production in another region, and most non-traditional crops are perishable so they cannot be stocked to counteract fluctuations. Informal insurance methods are often costly and inefficient. The contracting firms are better able to diversify risk by diversifying production sources geographically because they have access to inexpensive financial resources. In addition, their participation in the production process allows them to provide insurance with low transaction costs and to avoid some moral hazard problems. Risk-averse farmers, who generally are smallholders, are willing to pay more for insurance. Hence, they will sell at a price under the expected market price, as long as it is secured. However, contracts that protect against production risk face moral hazard problems. Monitoring costs can be reduced by requiring the farmer to bear a large share of the production risk. Larger growers are better able to bear risk, so firms will have an incentive to contract with them. Small holders face an important advantage against big producers: the cost of labor supervision. Since most of their labor is family labor, they realize the marginal gains, whereas hired workers at a large farm do not benefit from extra effort and, by the contrary, need to be monitored. However, efficient production requires information 33 about optimal cultivation techniques: when and how to apply chemicals, when to water, weed, and rotate crops. It also requires information about permitted chemicals (types and amounts) in different export markets, and desired characteristics (size, texture, color, weight, etc.). Gathering this information implies high fixed costs, therefore economies of scale arise. The agroindustrial firm can gather the information and split the cost among all the farmers. 6. Final comments Smallholder cultivation and high intensity and density of poverty levels are the main characteristic of rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia. Most of these smallholders practice either subsistence farming or operate largely in local markets due to lack of connectivity to more lucrative markets at provincial, national or global levels. As a result, incentives remain weak, investments remain low, and so does the level of technology adoption and productivity, resulting into a low level equilibrium poverty trap. Two instruments appear critical to break this deadlock for the small holders: one is physical infrastructure –such as roads, electricity, potable water and drainage, water for irrigation and telecommunications - that connects smallholders to markets; and the other is the role of accompanying institutions - such as land titling on the enforcement of property rights; credit markets; and contract farming; vertically integrated schemes; market information systems; commercial rules and laws; commodity exchanges; warehouse receipt systems; and producer and trader associations on economic coordination ‐ that can reduce the marketing risk and transaction costs in the process of exchange between producers and consumers. The proposed paper provided strategic inputs to strengthen the institutional and infrastructure base that is necessary to support enhancement of the competitiveness of smallholders in rural areas in the production and marketing of their products to better link them to markets to help generate incomes for both smallholder farmers and rural labor. The paper brings together three dimensions in its analysis in linking smallholders to markets: the heterogeneity of small farmers and therefore their specific bottlenecks in connecting to markets, the complementarities of investment in rural institutions and infrastructure (capital intensive and post-harvest technologies) may have in market development and in reducing poverty, and the level of market accessibility. In addition it applies a common multi-pronged approach to developing countries which aims to the production of an international public good which can be applied in more than one country or region. 34 7. References Ahmed, R., y C. 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