Download Plan Context CHAPTER 3

CHAPTER 3
Plan Context
NATIONAL PHYSICAL PLAN
National Physical Plan-2
-2
CHAPTER 3
PLAN CONTEXT
The national spatial framework is an important physical guide in realising the national objective of
sustainable growth with high income and employment. This framework together with Vision 2020,
1Malaysia concept, the 10
th
Malaysia Plan and other sector policies will become the thrust in
moving Malaysia forward to become more competitive with the other global economies of the
world. The framework consisting of the economy, social and environmental aspects will become
the foundation of the country’s physical setting thus achieving the best results for national spatial
development.
These 3 aspects of national development have been assessed in a holistic,
integrated and balanced approach by NPP-2 in order to achieve the desired goal.
Peninsular Malaysia is made up of the West Coast, the East Coast and the Central Highlands,
that is the Banjaran Titiwangsa, Banjaran Nakawan and Banjaran Bintang. The land use pattern
of the country is affected by the historical and economical factors where the more productive
urban economic activities and concentration of population are found in the west coast areas. The
Kuala Lumpur, George Town and Johor Bahru Conurbations in the west coast are the most
developed as compared to the other urban areas of the Peninsular. As for the eastern coast area,
the unique potentials for nature, beach and island tourism may provide a significant growth
catalyst.
Malaysia, which has its own recognised strengths and potentials in the global setting, will look
forward in seeking every opportunity to promote and attract more Foreign Direct Investments
(FDI), adopt new national growth strategies, venture into new sources of economic growth and
accelerate the rate of transformation to knowledge and high technology-based economies. At the
same time, the production of quality human capital that will enhance the country’s capability to
compete in the global market will be maximised. In resolving internal development issues, the
government must take cognisance of the world current economic financial crisis and international
convention commitments such as biodiversity and climate change.
The NPP-2 shall provide a spatial planning strategy for enhancing international competiveness
and a framework for strengthening national developmental cohesion and discipline. It added a
spatial or geographic dimension to the more purely economic and social-biased aspects of the
development plans. The spatial aspect of the NPP-2 will guide more effective national
development planning to ensure that the national resources are used efficiently and sustainably,
in particular making optimum use of existing capital and human resources.
3.1
Global and National Strategic Issues and Challenges
The spatial strategy, policies and measures of the first NPP (2005) have been
subsequently reviewed and adjusted accordingly to address the national emerging issues
identified and the future challenges faced. These are elaborated below and in the ensuing
3-1
National Physical Plan-2
-2
policy themes. In shaping the national spatial strategy and framework, the emerging
strategic issues and key future challenges for all the policy themes and their spatial
implications have been taken into account and summarised as follows:i.
Promoting the Government’s 1Malaysia Concept
Malaysia is a multi-racial society with many different religions
and cultures. High sustainable growth depends largely on the
ability of all Malaysians to live and work harmoniously together.
In this respect, the 1Malaysia concept is aimed to promote more
social interaction and national unity through fostering mutual
respect and trust among the various communities and improving
connectivity between different states/ areas in Malaysia. For
example, there is a need to innovate and develop integrative
community planning concepts and approaches, including the
creation of socially and ethnically-mixed residential communities
and provision of common users’ space, such as sport facilities
1 MALAYSIA
PEOPLE FIRST
PERFORMANCE NOW
and community centers.
ii.
The Government’s New Economic Model towards a High Income Economy
The World Bank Report has highlighted Malaysia’s
economic structure weakness, resulting in it being
caught in a middle-income trap. Malaysia is unable
to remain competitive as a high volume, low-cost
producer, yet unable to move up the value chain in
the fast-growing markets for knowledge and
innovation-based products and services.
To meet this challenge, the New Economic Model
(NEM) is geared towards moving up the economic
value chain to the high value-added tertiary sector,
helping the nation to generate a high, balanced
and sustainable economic growth thus achieving a high-income economy by 2020.
According to the Prime Minister of Malaysia, it is “predicated more on innovation, high
value searching for new sources of growth, strengthening domestic demand and the longterm integration with East Asian economies”. An example of this phenomenon is a need
to produce more skilled and knowledge workers in attracting and establishing the Islamic
financial and outsource services in the conurbations; and a need to protect and enhance
nature-based touristic areas, such as scenic beaches and pristine forests, in drawing
more tourist arrivals.
iii.
Accelerating Economic Growth Rates in Economically Lagging Regions
There is a wide income and development disparities between the east coast and the west
coast areas in Peninsular Malaysia. To realise inclusiveness and more regional balance,
3-2
National Physical Plan-2
-2
efforts and resources are directed to exploit the full potentials of different parts of the
country in particular, the key economic development corridors through implementing high
impact projects based on the various regional economic master plans prepared. For
example, there is a need to upgrade the Port of Kuantan to perform national port
functions and to support the designated ‘Special Economic Zone’ in Kuantan’s Growth
Conurbation in order to accelerate growth in the less-developed ECER hinterland.
iv.
Enhancing Economic Globalisation, Local Trade Liberalisation and International
Competitiveness
As Malaysia has a small domestic market and an open economy, it is essential for the
country to remain outward-looking and export-orientated. As such, the strategic economic
thrust is targeted mainly to capture the increasing international trade flow and export
markets, to draw higher direct foreign investment and to stimulate more home-grown
private enterprises in capitalising the various multilateral and bilateral trade agreements
entered such as ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement and AFTA.
At the same time, the government has identified several strong emerging clusters as new
sources of growth including tourism in particular medical and education, Islamic finance,
biotechnology, renewable energy, logistics, and ICT. A competitive and innovative private
sector is expected to act as the main engine of growth. The government will serve as an
effective facilitator and enabler through the creation of the most conducive economic
investment environment for private initiatives and enterprises to thrive and grow. For
example, tax incentives are provided for promoted activities in Iskandar Malaysia in Johor
state for the setting up of creative industries and regional headquarters outsourcing/ off
shoring services, thus enhancing its growth potential.
v.
Adoption of New Innovative Technologies
The Malaysian government is also striving to transform the economic structure into a
knowledge-based economy which will be driven primarily by creativity, quality and
productivity. Innovative technologies are indispensable productive tools, particularly ICT
and biotechnology, to enhance economic efficiency and quality of life; and have impacts
on people, places and potentials. As an example, the application of high speed
broadband makes it possible for certain businesses and industries to operate
competitively in the current geographic remote areas far away from the mainstream
activity centres. A case in point is the feasible option to locate Halal industry cluster in
medium-sized towns in the less-developed east coast states. The knowledge based
economy must also be productivity driven which also requires the development of key
enablers in ICT, investments in public transport infrastructure and a talent pool of skilled
workers. The country will eventually progress to the innovation era which is knowledge
driven and producing knowledge based goods and services (see Fig 3.1).
3-3
National Physical Plan-2
-2
Figure 3.1 : Economic Transition Model
Knowledge-based
goods & services
Export high value
added electrical &
electronic goods
Manufacture of
import substitution
goods
Export of rubber,
tin, palm oil &
timber
Export textile &
electronic goods
Innovative Era
Knowledge Era
Knowledge driven
Technology Era
Innovative &
Human
Capital
driven
Productivity driven
Industrial Era
Investment driven
Agriculture Era
Labour driven
Labour driven
Source: Malaysia Institute of Management, April 2008.
vi.
Threats of Climate Change
Changing climate phenomenon is considered the greatest long-term potentially
catastrophic threat to the world. Evidences indicate that uncontrolled human activity is
changing the global climate, particularly man-made carbon emissions which have
contributed to global warming resulting not only in permanent detrimental changes to the
natural environment, but also significant challenges to worldwide economic growth and
social stability.
To address this global environmental issue, appropriate spatial policies and measures
must be taken to adapt to and mitigate its adverse effects on Malaysia. For example,
impact of climate change is a key consideration in preparing all development plans
including incorporating policy measures to ensure that no urban development be allowed
in low lying coastal areas vulnerable to marine flooding due to rising sea-level. At the
same instance, the protection of forested areas to act as carbon sink, and the promotion
of energy efficient and eco-friendly urban development must not be neglected.
vii.
Deteriorating Sustainability, Biodiversity and Avoiding Geo-Hazards
Peninsular Malaysia has suffered substantial loss in forested areas and wetlands
including forest fragmentation. Only 45% of the total land area in Peninsular was forested
in 2008. They provide valuable ecosystem services valuable for supporting human life
and well-being, especially clean water, oxygen including ecotourism. Many forested areas
have steep slopes which are geo-hazard risk areas and are landslide prone.
Nevertheless, Malaysia still remains as one of the 12 mega-diverse countries in the world
with rich biodiversity. To date, the Peninsular has lost a substantial area of forest cover
from 9.5 million hectare (1954) to 6 million hectare (2000) but somewhat stabilised to
about 5.9 million hectare (2008) which is an indication of a positive trend (see Figure 3.2).
3-4
National Physical Plan-2
-2
It is imperative, therefore, to address the need for conserving or restoring ecologically
valuable natural resource and environmentally sensitive areas, and their implications to
urban form and pattern. For example, in order to stop urban sprawl and encroachment
into forest and wetlands areas, smaller urban footprint development with higher densities
and more mixed-uses/ multiple-uses development must be encouraged.
It is also
important to give higher priority on the use of public transport, cycling and walking to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and establishing ecological linkages to reconnect
fragmented forest complexes.
Figure 3.2 : Fragmentation of Natural Forest Cover in Peninsular Malaysia (1954-2000)
1954
9.5mil ha.
1969
8.0mil ha.
1972
7.4mil ha.
1990
6.2mil ha.
2000
6.0mil ha.
Source : 1954, 1969 & 1972 – Jomo et al. (2004) after Aitken et al. (1982: 161).
1990 – Jomo et al. (2004) after Anon (1992), 2000 – Stibig et al. (2002: 11).
viii.
Protecting the Natural Resources within the Exclusive Economic Zone
Malaysia is also a maritime country with a long coast line with several islands, shoals and
rock outcrops in the territorial waters off the mainland of the Peninsular Malaysia. Under
the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) any island within 12
nautical miles from the mainland is within the territorial waters of the country and 200
nautical miles as Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The EEZ, gives the right to a country
to explore, exploit and manage the natural resources within the zone for economic
purposes (like fisheries and tourism), scientific researches, environment protection and
conservation such as maritime park (see Figure 3.3).
3-5
National Physical Plan-2
-2
The country’s recent loss of Pedra
Branca to Singapore has created a
new awareness on the need to carry
Figure 3.3 : Natural Resources in the
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
out activities on the islands to assert
sovereignty. The resources within the
EEZ include oil and gas resources,
deep sea fishing areas and sunken
ships
and
treasures
that
portray
historical and heritage significance.
There is inevitably a need to map
these resources, develop supply bases
and have contingency plans in case of
emergencies and security responses in
the event of shipping disasters, piracy
or
off
shore
oil
spills.
The
environmental impact of an offshore oil
well spillage can be quite significant on
the coastline of the East Coast States
as is evident in the recent accident
Territorial of Waters
Marine Parks
Exclusive Economic Zone
Oil Fields
Gas Fields
involving the British Petroleum oil
facility in the Gulf of Mexico.
ix.
Source : WWF, PETRONAS, USGS, 2008.
Inadequate National Food Security
Malaysia as a net food importer is highly exposed to external forces such as rising food
prices and volatile supply of rice in the international market due to adverse climate
conditions, natural disasters and hostilities. To achieve national food security, it is crucial
for the country to protect existing farm areas and enlarge prime agriculture land,
particularly the granary areas for rice cultivation. The challenge is for the authority
concerned to come out with acceptable fiscal incentives to offset the potential loss of
development rights and revenues of the affected states in meeting national needs to
protect and enlarge granary and prime agriculture areas in the states.
x.
Low Level of Renewable Energy and Green Technology Utilisation
Until recently, the core of urban planning in the country revolved around the use of fossil
fuel private vehicles, which emit a large amount of carbon. The application of green
technology (such as renewable and low-carbon energy) in the spatial planning of urban
form and pattern as well as integrated land uses and transportation network planning is
relatively new and limited.
In the face of increasingly high oil prices and climate change concerns today, it is critical
to place a high priority on sustainable patterns of urban and rural growth. New
development/redevelopment, in terms of housing, jobs, services and infrastructure
provision, must secure the highest viable resource and energy efficiency and reduce
3-6
National Physical Plan-2
-2
greenhouse gas emissions. For example, compact towns with high-density and mixeduses have better functional linkages and optimum space utilisation, thus are more energy
efficient compared to low-density ribbon development. Eco-towns and transit-oriented
towns are also more sustainable alternative township development. Urban forms and
patterns should seek to reduce the need to travel and to minimise long journey to work
and activities. In addition, incentives should be given to encourage the adoption of green
energy technology in buildings and development layouts.
xi.
Declining Inner City Areas and Rising Urban Poverty
In general, certain groups of people living in the inner cities and large towns, especially
the low income households living in private rented flats, suffer from multiple and severe
social, economic and environmental problems and deprivations. They are also faced with
high
unemployment,
low
income,
inadequate
affordable
housing,
poor
public
transportation, decaying environment, high incidence of crime, drug abuse, and lack of
open spaces. A large proportion of the inner city population are rural migrant workers and
foreign labourers with low urban work skills and knowledge such as shifting of rural
poverty to become urban poverty trapped in urban slums. As such, urban regeneration
and inner city programmes for the disadvantaged people and deprived areas must be
undertaken to expand and improve opportunities for employment, housing, education and
leisure.
xii.
Changing Demographic Structure and People’s Lifestyles
The changing demographic structure, such as declining fertility of the population, higher
proportion of aging people and more new household formation, in the country has
significant spatial implications on jobs creation, housing needs and in the provision of
social amenities. As people become more educated, their income increase and they have
smaller size families. They expect a better standard of life and quality of environment,
including a more liveable city, a wide choice of housing locations and housing types, and
better amenities and facilities. For example, an increased number of older people implies
the need for building more old folks home and geriatric care facilities in the rural areas;
and lower labour force means the need to shift from labour-intensive to mechanised
industries and activities.
xiii.
Scarcity of Future Government’s Financial Resources
In the near future, government financial resources for development are likely to be
scarce, particularly for mega-infrastructure facilities and social amenities due to the slow
and volatile global economic recovery. Cutbacks in public expenditure are also likely to
occur. In addition, it is envisaged that this budgetary constraint will be further aggravated
by the people’s higher expectation of spatial quality and diversity, such as better homes
and environment. As such, the government has indicated a ceiling of RM180 billion for
th
the total development expenditure under the 10 MP (2011-2015), which is 21.7 percent,
th
lower than 9 MP‘s allocation.
3-7
National Physical Plan-2
-2
In view of this, it is imperative to concentrate on the limited resources available for
enhancing growth in existing strategic towns in order to maximise the use of existing and
committed infrastructure, and to locate new development in areas where facilities can be
provided and maintain economically. In addition, it is essential for adjoining states to
jointly plan, develop and share the key regional infrastructure facilities, amenities and
services, including major seaports, airports, power, water, ICT, waste management and
industrial location, which are usually capital-intensive and require economies of scale.
“Outcome-based” and “best value” evaluation selection and management approaches for
every project need also be adopted.
3.2
Global Setting and Development Trends
3.2.1
World Trade
Between 2000 and 2008, world merchandise trade grew at 12 percent per annum,
reaching US$15,775 billion in exports and US$16,120 billion in imports in 2008. Malaysia
st
th
was ranked 21 among the exporters and 28 among the importers in 2008.
th
In terms of trade performance, Malaysia occupies the 28 position in the 2009 Enabling
Trade Index rankings. Efficient import procedures, a low cost regime for imports and
exports, and the quality of transport infrastructure and related transport services all
contribute to this good rating.
1
The 2008-2009 global economic crises had weakened the demand for goods and
services. Economic confidence waned and the trade sector was severely crippled. At the
end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 due to the weaker demand in developed
economies, trade flows contracted compounded by a reduction of trade finance and
shock from the then rapidly deteriorating economic situation.
World merchandise trade expanded by only 2 percent in 2008 compared to 6 percent in
2007. The growth in 2008 was below the 5.7 percent average attained during the period
of 1998-2008.
The first quarter of 2009 saw the worst trade declines in Malaysia’s history, estimated at
almost 25 percent decline.
The decline in trade was reversed in mid-2009. Malaysia External Trade Corporation
(MATRADE) reported that Malaysia’s exports grew by 8.4% in July 2009 from June 2009.
This was the highest monthly export value ever recorded in the first seven months of
2009, an evidence of the nation's export recovery. Independently, Bank Negara also
reported a lower contraction of 3.9 percent in the country's GDP compared with a 6.2
percent decline in the first quarter of 2009. This is mainly influenced by the higher public
spending and positive growth in private consumption during the second quarter period. All
1
Source: World economic Forum, “The Global Enabling Trade Report 2009”. The ETI measures the countries’ institutions, policies,
and services facilitating the free flow of goods over borders and to destination.
3-8
National Physical Plan-2
-2
major economic sectors also registered improved performance in the supply side for the
second quarter of 2009.
3.2.2
International Collaboration
The US financial crisis that started in September 2008 very quickly became a global
crisis. Malaysia’s major trading partners were deeply affected. Despite a reasonable
growth for the first seven months of 2008, developed economies registered at 0.8 percent
2
growth in 2008 compared with 2.5 percent in 2007. By contrast, developing Asia grew at
5.7 percent, led by China, which registered the strongest growth of any major economy.
In 2008, world output, measured by real GDP, slowed to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 3.5
percent a year earlier, the lowest levels since 2001.
Realising a potential global economic meltdown, the multi-lateral agencies as in the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and their regional counterparts, sought
cooperation from governments to revitalise their economies through economic stimulus
packages. All major developed countries, led by the US, stepped in with emergency
funding. In Asia, China and Japan also put in very significant amounts in the same
direction.
These international organisations played an important role to persuade governments to
coordinate their economic stimulus plans. Without coordinated efforts, the prognosis was
a global economic depression.
By mid-2009, the global economic decline had slowed down. Although the economic
news was still bad (example unemployment rates were still rising), the sentiment in the
stock exchanges around the world had turned from bleak to bullish. Trade declines had
also slowed and the prospects of an economic recovery have been better than they were
forecasted in the first half of 2009.
Malaysia introduced two stimulus packages valued at about one-third the size of the
th
9 MP budget as part of the programme to revitalise the economy. The timing of the NPP2 presented an opportunity to review the recent economic downturn and to reassess the
capacity of the Malaysian economy to achieve the economic targets of Vision 2020 and
the NEM.
3.2.3
Regional Cooperation
At the regional level, Malaysia continues to support the pace of economic integration of
ASEAN and in promoting trade and investment. The sub-regional development is through
the triangles growth (IMT-GT, IMS-GT and BIMP-EAGA) to promote economic growth in
the less developed areas of the sub-region. The Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth
Triangle (IMT-GT) envisions a seamless, progressive, prosperous and peaceful subregion with improved quality of life, i.e. an ASEAN Economic Community by 2020. To
realise this vision, the IMT-GT aims to accelerate private sector-led economic growth; and
2
Developing Asia - excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
3-9
National Physical Plan-2
-2
help to facilitate the development of the sub region as a whole. Its objective, as stated in
the Roadmap for Development 2007-2011, is to increase intra-IMT-GT and inter-IMT-GT
trade and investment.
The Indonesia-Malaysia-Singapore Growth Triangle (IMS-GT) is geared towards
increasing competitiveness, integration and growth through comparative advantage,
economics of scale and productivity linkages. With two direct road links to Singapore and
sea links to Batam, Iskandar Malaysia is in an excellent position to take advantage of the
IMS-GT, which allows for international cooperation, human mobility and tourism.
The vision of Brunei Darussalam-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth
Area (BIMP-EAGA) is the realisation of socially acceptable and sustainable economic
development, which leads to the full participation of EAGA in the ASEAN development
process. Its immediate goal is to increase trade, investments and tourism in the sub
region by facilitating;
i.
The free movement of people, goods and services;
ii.
Development of vital infrastructure in the sub region; and
iii.
Coordination of the management of ecosystems and common resources to ensure
sustainable development.
3.2.4
Climate Change and Impacts to Malaysia
The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that without further
action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature will rise by a
3
further 1.8 to 4.0 °C in this century . Global warming is predicted to have serious
consequences on humanity, including a rise in sea levels of between 18 and 59 cm,
which will endanger coastal areas and small low lying islands, as well as greater
frequencies and severity of extreme weather events. Climate change is also likely to
impact agriculture, water resources and biodiversity (Table 3.1).
As a Non-Annex 1 Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC), Malaysia’s main obligations include formulating programmes
containing measures to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable management,
conservation and enhancement of sinks; and preparing for and developing plans for
adaptation to impacts of climate change. While an improved understanding of the likely
range of climatic conditions and consequent associated impacts is imperative for the
formulation of more specific measures, it is widely agreed that early pre-emptive
adaptation measures are critical to limit the damage and economic costs of these
impacts.
A national framework for combating climate change is in place, headed by the Cabinet
Committee on Climate Change chaired by the Prime Minister, a Project Steering
Committee and three Working Groups. The National Policy on Climate Change is in the
final stages of being drafted.
3
IPC. 2007. Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
3-10
National Physical Plan-2
-2
Table 3.1: Predicted Impacts of Climate Change in Malaysia
Sector
Impacts
Settlements & x Expansion of flood prone areas and increased intensity of flooding.
infrastructure x Increased coastal erosion and infrastructure damage in low lying coastal zones.
x Loss of coastal mangrove belt if sea level rise occurs at a rate of 0.9 cm/year.
However, landward migration of the mangrove belt can happen at lower rates of
sea level rise, where there is no constraint of hinterland development.
x Reduced efficiency of tidal gates and downstream drainage control.
x Increased operational and maintenance costs of electricity producers due to
storm surge.
For every 1°C rise in the ambient air temperature, gas and hydro turbines will
lose about 2% of power output respectively (translated to an estimated annual
loss of RM 40 million for a total of 6,600 MW of installed capacity running on gas
turbines).
Agriculture
x Increase of mean annual temperature to 31°C will cause drought conditions to
affect 273,000ha (or 15%) of current rubber land, resulting in a crop decrease of
3% to 15%. Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are likely to be most
affected.
x Increased rainfall will cause rubber yield losses of between 13% and 30%.
Kelantan and Terengganu are likely to be most affected.
x Drought conditions may affect 208,000ha of the present oil palm areas,
particularly in parts of Kelantan, Terengganu, Pahang, Johor, Kedah, Perak,
Negeri Sembilan and Melaka.
x Paddy grain yields may decline by 9% to 10% for each 1°C rise in temperature.
Prolonged drought conditions are unfavourable to rice production.
x Sea level rise of 0.9 cm per year would have serious implication on some large
agricultural projects such as the Western Johor Agricultural Development
Project.
x Sea level rise could affect coastal aquaculture, in particular aquaculture ponds
within riverine mangrove belts. A loss of 20% of mangroves is predicted to result
in a RM300 million loss in the prawn industry.
x Susceptibility of agriculture crops to pest and infestation of diseases may
increase due to changes in temperature and rainfall.
Biodiversity
x Increased risk of forest fires (especially in peat soils) due to prolonged dry
spells.
x Increased risk to natural ecosystems such as coral bleaching. However, the long
term impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services are difficult to predict due
to the complexity of ecological processes.
x Extinction of plant and animal species which are sensitive to changes in the
micro-climate.
Water
resources
x Warm spells may cause increased water demand/ water stress and algal
blooms.
x Saline intrusion into surface and groundwater may decrease freshwater
availability, especially in Kelantan and Terengganu.
x Large storms increase the rate of sedimentation of rivers and reservoirs, loss of
soil nutrients and risk of slope failures of riverbanks and hills.
Source: Malaysia’s Initial National Communication to UNFCCC (MOSTI, 2000) and Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the
Hydrologic Regimes and Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2006)
3-11
National Physical Plan-2
-2
3.3
National Setting
3.3.1
National Population Growth
Between 2000 and 2008, Malaysia’s population was estimated to have increased from
23.3 million to 27.7 million, at an annual growth rate of 2.2% per annum.
For Peninsular Malaysia, there has been a slowing of population growth rates from 2.5%
per annum between 1991-2000 to 2.2% per annum during the 2000-2010 period; and the
future growth rate is expected to decline further at 2.1% per annum between 2000-2020.
By the year 2020, it is projected that Peninsular Malaysia will have an estimated 28
million people (Table 3.2).
The slowing population growth is similar to other rapid urbanising countries, and is
attributable to a declining fertility rate. This decline is due largely to more people staying
single longer to further their tertiary education, resulting in fewer or delayed marriages,
and having fewer children as they pursue their careers. The rising cost of raising a family
may also have contributed to the declining population growth.
i.
Regional Population Pattern
With Malaysia’s population estimated at the national level, an important issue is its
distribution to regions and states. As population is a critical parameter for planning, it
is important to ensure that it is accurately estimated in order to avoid misallocation of
public investments and improve the effective utilisation of public resources.
Although the 2020 population forecasts of most State Structure Plans comply with
the NPP population targets, a few did not. To meet the aspiration of States, the
NPP-2 adopted the population forecasts of State Structure Plans that have adhered
to the NPP targets. A population forecast review has been undertaken and
adjustments were consulted with the stakeholders concerned.
The strategic population target issue is “What level of population can the state
economic structure support?” Job opportunities, affordable housing, conducive living
environments, low cost of living, friendly communities and neighbourhoods are the
major determinants that influence the level of population. Without employment
opportunities in the state, outmigration of the labour force can be expected.
Similarly, people will migrate to a state if there are better job opportunities available.
The Central Region is forecasted to have the highest rate of population growth at
2.5% per annum between 2000 and 2020. The high growth rate is due mainly to the
inter-state migration where people would move to the Central Region for the reasons
mentioned earlier. Table 3.2 shows the population by states for the past three
censuses and the forecasted population for 2020. Map 3.1 shows the 2020
estimated population.
3-12
National Physical Plan-2
-2
Table 3.2: Estimated Population by States, 2020
Population Size
State/ Region
Annual Population
Growth Rate (%)
% Distribution
1991
2000
2020
(mil)
1980
148,276
190,182
204,450
0.26
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
2.29
0.81
1.21
1,116,140
1,364,504
1,649,756
2.36
9.8
9.2
8.9
8.4
1.84
2.13
1.81
954,638
1,116,801
1,313,449
1.99
8.4
7.5
7.1
7.1
1.44
1.82
2.10
Perak
1,805,198
1,974,893
2,051,236
2.72
15.8
13.3
11.1
9.7
0.82
0.42
1.42
Northern Region
4,024,252
4,646,380
5,218,891
7.33
35.2
31.4
28.2
26.2
1.32
1.30
1.71
1,515,537
2,413,567
4,188,876
13.3
16.3
22.6
4.23
6.32
2.84
W.P. Kuala Lumpur
977,102
1,226,708
1,379,310
2.20
8.6
8.3
7.4
7.9
2.09
1.31
2.36
Negeri Sembilan
573,578
722,017
859,924
1.17
5
4.9
4.6
4.2
2.11
1.96
1.55
Melaka
464,754
529,199
635,791
0.90
4.1
3.6
3.4
3.2
1.19
2.06
1.75
Central Region
3,530,971
4,891,491
7,063,901 11.60
30.9
33.1
38.1
41.5
3.01
4.17
2.51
Johor
1,638,229
2,162,357
2,740,625
4.18
14.3
14.6
14.8
14.9
2.56
2.67
2.13
Southern Region
1,638,229
2,162,357
2,740,625
4.18
14.3
14.6
14.8
14.9
2.56
2.67
2.13
Pahang
798,782
1,081,148
1,288,376
1.82
7.0
7.3
7.0
6.5
2.79
1.97
1.74
Terengganu
540,626
808,556
898,825
1.28
4.7
5.5
4.9
4.6
3.73
1.18
1.78
Kelantan
893,753
1,207,684
1,313,014
1.75
7.8
8.2
7.1
6.3
2.77
0.93
1.45
2,233,161
3,097,388
3,500,215
4.85
19.5
20.9
18.9
17.3
3.02
1.37
1.64
11,426,613 14,797,616 18,523,632 27.96
100
100
100 100.0 2.38
2.53
2.08
83.1
80.5
79.6
4,751,058
16.9
19.5
20.4
4.03
3.19
13,745,241 18,379,655 23,274,690
100
100
100
2.68
2.66
1980
Perlis
Kedah
Pulau Pinang
Selangor
W.P. Putrajaya
Eastern Region
Peninsular Malaysia
% of Peninsular
Malaysia
East Malaysia
MALAYSIA
Source:
2,318,628
3,582,039
7.05
0.28
1991 2000 2020
25.2
1.0
1980- 19911991 2000
20002020
(1) 1980 & 1991 - General Report of the Population Census, Volume 1 and 2, Census 1991, DOS
(2) 2000 - Population Distribution and Basic Demographic Characteristics, Census 2000, DOS
(3) 2020 - National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-13
National Physical Plan-2
-2
FIGURE 3.4 : POPULATION TARGET BY STATES, 2020
2000 (‘000)
Northern Region
2020 (‘000)
Central Region
Southern Region
Eastern Region
Source: National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-14
National Physical Plan-2
-2
ii.
Urban-Rural Population
The level of population in urban areas will continue to intensify and urbanisation is
expected to reach about 75% by the year 2020. The Central Region will be the most
urbanised region in the country. It is already the most developed and industrialised region
with a concentration of large urban centres in the Klang Valley. The urban population in
Peninsular Malaysia would increase by 8.86 million from year 2000 to 2020, expected to
reach about 21 million in year 2020.
By year 2020 half of the Eastern Region population would still be located in rural areas
(Table 3.3). Kelantan will still have more people in rural areas than in urban areas by year
2020. Kedah and Perlis will have almost equal numbers of rural and urban population,
whereas the rest of the states will have more urban than rural population. W.P. Kuala
Lumpur and W.P. Putrajaya, by definition, do not have any rural population.
Table 3.3: Population (‘000) in Urban and Rural Areas by States, 1991, 2000 and 2020
State/ Region
1991
Urban
%
2000
Rural
%
Urban
%
2020
Rural
%
Urban
%
Rural
%
Perlis
48.8 26.6
135.0 73.4
70.1 34.3
134.4 65.7
104.4 39.8
158.1
60.2
Kedah
423.3 32.5
879.0 64.5
648.0 39.3
1,001.8 60.7
1,118.2 47.3
1,245.7
52.7
Pulau Pinang
798.3 75.0
265.9 25.0
1,052.1 80.1
261.4 19.9
1,711.5 86.0
278.5
14.0
Perak
1,006.8 53.6
870.6 46.4
1,203.9 58.7
847.4 41.3
1,890.5 69.5
829.7
30.5
Northern Region
2,277.2 51.4
2,150.5 45.6
2,974.0 57.0
2,244.9 43.0
4,824.5 65.8
2,512.1
34.2
1,726.6 75.2
570.6 24.8
3,667.5 87.6
521.4 12.4
6,304.3 89.4
744.8
10.6
Selangor
W.P. Putrajaya
W.P. Kuala Lumpur
1,145.3 100.0
-
-
1,379.3
100.
0
-
-
281.5 100.0
-
-
2,200.0 100.0
-
-
Negeri Sembilan
290.8 42.0
402.1 58.0
459.3 53.4
400.7 46.6
697.0 59.8
468.2
40.2
Melaka
196.0 38.7
310.3 61.3
427.3 67.2
208.5 32.8
669.2 74.0
235.1
26.0
3,358.7 72.4
1,283.0 27.6
5,933.3 84.0
1,130.6 16.0
10,152.0 87.5
1,448.1
12.5
Central Region
Johor
989.9 47.8
1,079.8 52.2
1,787.5 65.2
953.1 34.8
3,076.4 73.6
1,103.9
26.4
Southern Region
989.9 47.8
1,079.8 52.2
1,787.5 65.2
953.1 34.8
3,076.4 73.6
1,103.9
26.4
Pahang
317.2 30.4
727.8 69.3
540.9 42.0
747.5 58.0
1,179.6 65.0
635.5
35.0
Terengganu
340.7 44.5
425.6 55.5
437.5 48.7
461.3 51.3
831.9 65.0
448.1
35.0
Kelantan
395.5 33.5
785.8 66.5
448.9 34.2
864.1 65.8
919.5 52.6
829.8
47.4
Eastern Region
1,053.3 35.2
1,939.2 64.8
1,427.2 40.8
2,073.0 59.2
2,931.0 60.5
1,913.4
39.5
Peninsular
Malaysia
7,679.1 54.3
6,452.5 45.7 12,122.1 65.4
6,401.5 34.6
20,983.9 75.0
6,977.5
25.0
Source:
(1) 1991 - Preliminary Count Report for Urban and Rural Areas, Census 2000, DOS
(2) 2000 - Population Distribution and Basic Demographic Characteristics, Census 2000, DOS
(3) 2020 –National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-15
National Physical Plan-2
-2
FIGURE 3.5 : PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS BY STATES, 2020
Urban
Northern Region
Rural
Central Region
Southern Region
Eastern Region
Source: National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-16
National Physical Plan-2
-2
3.3.2
i.
Economic Performance
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The global economic and political problems since 1997 have had a profound impact on
the Malaysian economy. By 2010, Peninsular Malaysia’s GDP will reach RM436 billion (in
2000 prices), up from about RM297 billion in 2000. The economic growth of the 9MP was
forecasted at 6% p.a., but actual performance is estimated at only 2.7%. Compared to the
Vision 2020 target, this is a shortfall of 26%. Between 1991 and 2010, the real economy
grew at 5.4% p.a. compared to the Vision 2020 target of 7% p.a.
The government launched two economic stimulus packages in 2008-2009; and
announced new economic measures in the second half of 2009 (see section 4.2). To
achieve a developed and high income nation status by 2020, the EPU has forecasted an
annual average growth rate of GDP at 5.5% for Malaysia between 2010 and 2020.
Hence, by 2020, the estimated GDP for Peninsular Malaysia will be RM744 billion in 2000
th
prices, using the 10 MP economic growth estimates.
The states in the Central Region will grow faster than the country as a whole, while
Selangor and W.P. Kuala Lumpur will have the largest GDP by 2020. The east coast
states will also grow moderately over this period and will be faster than the country as a
whole.
Table 3.4: GDP by Regions, 2000-2020
Average Annual Growth
Rate (%)
GDP RM million in 2000 Prices
Region
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
20002005
20002010
20002020
Northern Region
63,748
80,663
93,300
122,100
159,600
4.8
3.9
4.7
Central Region
146,694
186,738
218,700
285,900
373,600
4.9
4.1
4.8
Southern Region
36,435
46,090
53,000
68,700
89,800
4.8
3.8
4.6
Eastern Region
50,361
65,148
71,000
92,700
121,000
5.3
3.5
4.5
Pen. Malaysia
297,238
378,639
436,000
569,400
744,000
5.0
3.9
4.7
Note
: GDP at 2000 prices for 2000, 2005 and 2010 are extracted from EPU unpublished data. Beyond 2010, GDP estimates are
based on overall growth and the 2010 share, rounded to nearest 100. Economic growth 2010-2020 is estimated at 5.5% p.a.
Source : Computed from unpublished state GDP data, EPU and 10MP Circular.
3-17
National Physical Plan-2
-2
ii.
Sectoral Contributions and Projections
Table 3.5 shows the estimated figures for the projected state GDP by sectoral shares.
Table 3.5: Projected State GDP Sectoral Shares (%), 2000-2020
State
Secondary (%)
Tertiary (%)
2000
2020
2000
2020
2000
2020
Perlis
12.6
4.3
33.3
32.9
54.1
62.8
Kedah
18.3
8.1
22.5
26.2
59.2
65.7
1.0
0.3
45.5
44.5
53.5
55.2
19.9
7.9
27.3
28.2
52.8
63.9
Selangor
3.2
0.8
59.7
62.6
37.1
36.6
W.P. Kuala Lumpur
0.0
0.0
19.7
13.1
80.3
86.9
Negeri Sembilan
9.8
5.4
42.6
46.2
47.6
48.4
Melaka
4.4
1.5
36.4
34.9
59.2
63.6
Johor
11.9
5.0
40.7
46.5
47.4
48.5
Pahang
21.3
10.4
19.3
22.9
59.4
66.7
Terengganu
56.3
9.5
18.7
39.4
25.0
51.1
Kelantan
16.5
8.1
16.1
12.4
67.4
79.5
Pulau Pinang
Perak
Note:
Source:
iii.
Primary (%)
(1) The shares of economic shares to GDP by states are based on Table 1, unpublished GDP by sectors from EPU
for the period 2001–2010. GDP estimates are not adjusted for bank charges and import duties.
(2) Estimates for 2011-2020 are based on trends in sectoral growth for period 2001-2010 and adjusted for implied of
sectoral development at national level.
(3) Selangor includes W.P. Putrajaya
Unpublished data, EPU 2001-2010
Malaysian Employment
In terms of the labour force and employment scenario, the unemployment rate will remain
low for the planning period, estimated at about 3.5%. By 2020, the labour force will have
reached 12.4 million and total employment will have reached almost 12 million (Table
3.6).
Table 3.6: Malaysian Labour Force and Employment, 1990 – 2010
AAGR (%)
2005
2010
1990 1995 2000 2005
1995 2000 2005 2010
1990
1995
2000
Labour Force (‘000)
7,042.0
8,254.0
9,571.6
11,290.5 12,406.8
3.23
3.0
3.4
1.9
Total Employment (‘000)
6,686.0
7,999.2
9,274.6
10,894.8 11,976.0
3.65
3.0
3.3
1.9
Employment-Population Ratio
0.37
0.39
0.39
0.41
0.41
-
-
-
-
Workers-household Ratio
1.43
1.78
1.89
-
-
-
-
-
-
Unemployment (‘000)
356
254.8
297.0
395.7
430.8
-
-
-
-
Unemployment Rate (%)
5.1
3.1
3.1
3.5
3.5
-
-
-
-
Source: 7thMP, 8thMP & 9thMP
3-18
National Physical Plan-2
-2
The occupational structure in 2020 would have more knowledge workers related to management,
professional and technical expertise. The largest proportional change is expected in the service
industry as well as the craft and related retail trade. Occupations expected to decline include plant
and machine operators and assembly workers (Table 3.7).
1
Table 3.7: Malaysian Employment (‘000) by Occupational Groups ,
1995, 2000 and 2020
2000
Occupational Group
2005
2020
(‘000)
%
(‘000)
%
(‘000)
%
639.9
6.9
777.4
7.7
1,157.1
8.2
537.9
5.8
555.1
5.5
693.5
4.9
1,112.9
12.0
1,266.8
12.6
2,073.1
14.7
890.4
9.6
992.3
9.9
1,354.4
9.6
Service Workers & Shop & Market Sales
Workers6
1,205.6
13.0
1,483.7
14.8
3,120.5
22.1
Skilled Agricultural & Fishery Workers7
1,391.2
15.0
1,268.6
12.6
1,199.5
8.5
844.0
9.1
1,145.5
11.4
2,153.8
15.3
1,493.2
16.1
1,427.5
14.2
1,145.4
8.1
1,159.5
12.5
1,128.3
11.2
1,212.9
8.6
9,274.6
100.0
10,045.2
100.0
14,110
100.0
Senior Officials & Managers
Professionals
2
3
Technicians & Associate Professionals
Clerical Workers
4
5
Craft & Related Trade Workers
8
Plant & Machine Operators & Assemblers
Elementary Occupations
9
10
Total
Notes: 1 This classification is based on Malaysia Standard Classification of Occupations 1998.
2
Includes general managers, department managers and senior government officials.
3
Includes graduate teaching professionals, accountants and auditors and computer system designers and analysts.
4
Includes non-graduate teachers, supervisors and engineering and computer support technicians.
5
Includes administrative clerks, accounting and finance clerks and telephone operators.
6
Includes cooks, travel guides and waiters.
7
Includes farm workers, plantation workers and forestry workers.
8
Includes mechanics and fitters, carpenters and tailors.
9
Includes equipment assemblers, drivers and machine operators.
10
Includes street vendors, domestic helpers and cleaners and construction and maintenance labourers.
For year 2010-2020 - Estimates based on past trends from 2000-2007.
Source: 9th.MP and DOS, Labour Force Survey report Malaysia, 2007.
3.3.3
Land Use Pattern
The land use pattern for Peninsular Malaysia in 2008 was categorised into four major land
uses:
Land Use
Built-up areas
Area (ha.)
%
759,900
5.8
Agriculture
6,268,300
47.5
Forests
5,902,000
44.8
251,500
1.9
13,181,700
100
Water Bodies
Total Land Area
Source : GIS data, National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-19
National Physical Plan-2
-2
i.
Built-up Areas
Built-up areas are defined in the NPP-2 as areas under predominantly urban use
comprising a variety of land uses such as residential, commercial, industrial and
institutional uses together with their supporting facilities such as roads, public utilities,
open spaces, parks and vacant lands.
Peninsular Malaysia’s existing built-up areas account for 759,900 hectares or 5.8% of the
total land area. Out of these, most of the built-up areas are located in the Central Region
where the large urban centres of W.P. Kuala Lumpur, Selangor, Port Dickson, Seremban
and Melaka are found (Table 3.8 and Figure 3.6). Urban centres are essentially activity
nodes and population concentrations.
W.P. Kuala Lumpur and W.P. Putrajaya have the most heavily built-up areas; and out of
its total acreage, built-up areas represent about 92.6% and 72.7% respectively. At the
other end, Kelantan has only 2.6% classified as built-up.
3-20
National Physical Plan-2
-2
Table 3.8: Existing Land Use by States, 2008 (‘000 ha)
Built-Up
%
Agriculture
%
Forest
%
Water Bodies
%
Total
Perlis
State
5.8
7.1
62.2
76.4
11.6
14.3
1.8
2.2
81.4
%
0.8
Kedah
52.2
%
6.9
Pulau Pinang
36.1
%
4.8
Perak
78.3
%
NORTHERN
REGION
%
10.3
172.4
Selangor
143.7
%
18.9
W.P. Putrajaya
3.2
%
W.P. Kuala
Lumpur
%
0.4
22.4
N. Sembilan
57.1
%
7.5
Melaka
29.2
%
CENTRAL
REGION
%
3.8
255.6
Johor
162.4
%
SOUTHERN
REGION
%
21.4
162.4
Pahang
80.2
%
10.6
Terengganu
50.1
5.5
34.6
58.0
3.7
903.1
5.3
%
EASTERN
REGION
%
5.2
169.5
TOTAL
759.9
18.1
7.8
43.1
1,050.2
384.0
72.7
0.7
48.1
1.2
8.6
446.3
48.3
15.9
961.7
8.5
1,202.0
2.2
1,450.5
3.9
537.9
2.6
561.8
67.1
158.1
78.3
58.1
411.3
63.0
508.5
508.5
40.4
2,024.8
41.5
656.3
37.4
886.8
0.0
0.4
100
0.8
87.9
15.9
2.7
20.3
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.2
1.4
2.6
26.6
34.8
2.1
24.2
0.6
665.4
0.2
5.0
0.8
34.8
1.6
1,655.2
1.8
1,907.7
12.6
14.5
1.8
1,907.7
1.0
3,592.3
3.9
1,294.9
1.0
1,502.6
13.8
56.4
36.8
14.5
14.6
50.7
50.6
27.3
20.1
59.0
14.8
9.8
5.9
55.8
102.2
11.4
1.6
40.6
44.8
251.5
100
165.4
1.3
13.8
26.7
4.4
0.0
10.6
26.7
795.8
6.0
11.4
0.6
24.8
3,229.0
24.5
1.6
60.5
5,902.0
2,096.6
0.2
23.8
15.0
47.5
3.1
7.2
0.2
11.1
3,567.9
104.3
8.1
34.3
40.7
100
31.1
8.6
39.9
2.3
35.0
8.6
9.0
6,268.3
43.8
7.0
63.0
946.7
25.8
0.1
8.6
5.8
5.3
2.0
1.0
2.7
23.1
2,550.2
65.0
0.0
19.2
2.7
0.0
0.1
19.2
1,202.0
247.8
5.0
15.3
8.5
50.1
0.0
2.1
15.4
2.4
4.2
7.1
129.5
7.5
24.0
0.0
17.7
1,414.3
18.7
0.6
7.4
17.8
0.0
92.6
36.4
0.1
6.1
22.3
100
55.6
24.8
21.4
6.6
1,554.4
344.7
0.7
5.8
14.4
33.6
39.2
56.1
0.9
2.9
Kelantan
531.1
0.2
8.5
22.7
%
%
1.0
6,389.8
48.5
1.9
13,181.7
100
Note : The total area of each states might be different with the actual area caused by the slight inaccuracy of GIS data. However, the
variation is marginal and acceptable for this macro spatial analysis.
Source : GIS data, National Physical Plan-2, 2010
Total forest land is based on data from Forestry Dept., 2008
3-21
National Physical Plan-2
-2
FIGURE 3.6 : EXISTING LAND USE, 2008
Built-up Area
Highway
State Capital
Agriculture
Federal Road
Major River
Forest
State Road
Water Bodies
Railway
Source: National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-22
National Physical Plan-2
-2
ii. Agriculture
Agricultural areas, especially those surrounding urban centres, are threatened by urban
sprawl. With population increase and rapid economic growth, agriculture lands are
increasingly encroached and converted to meet the additional housing needs as well as
commercial floor space and industrial land demands. Although continuous loss of
agriculture land occurs, planned growth must be adopted to ensure that wastage of other
valuable agricultural land does not happen or are at least reduced to a minimum.
Identification of Prime Agriculture Areas (PAAs) is important in order to prioritise the
agricultural land to be conserved and supported based on existing and potential major
food and primary commodities production areas. PAAs identified by NPP-2 that must be
conserved are as follows:a. Granary areas comprising Muda (MADA), Kemubu (KADA), IADA Kerian-Sungai
Manik, IADA Barat Laut Selangor, IADA Pulau Pinang, IADA Seberang Perak, IADA
Terengganu Utara (KETARA) and IADA Kemasin-Semerak;
b. Paddy land outside granary areas;
c. Agriculture areas designated as “Permanent Food Production Park (PFPP)”;
d. Agriculture areas without dry season and with short dry season;
e. Agriculture areas on Class 1, Class 2, Class 3 and peat/ organic soils.
In 2006, the overall PAA areas have increased by 18.9% as compared to the Agriculture
Land Use Map of 2000. This is mainly due to the increase in oil palm cultivation in the
Rank 1 and Rank 2 areas. Oil palm cultivation in Rank 1 areas has increased by 34.9%
and those in Rank 2 areas have increased by 40.4%. Agriculture areas identified under
Class 1 and Class 2 soil also have increased by 7.64%. However, paddy areas, including
granary areas, have decreased by 7.9% from 2000 to 2006.
iii. Forest
According to the statistics from the Forestry Department of Peninsular Malaysia, 5.9
million hectares or 45% of the total land area of Peninsular Malaysia was forested in
2008. Of this, about 4.8 million hectares was forest reserves managed under sustainable
forest management, with 2.0 million hectares classified as protection forest and the
remaining 2.8 million hectares as production forests.
Forest loss and fragmentation of forest cover is a major issue. While the protected areas
are relatively secure, forest reserves are easily de-gazetted into state land forests, and
subsequently converted to agriculture. Between 2001 and 2005, over 40,000 hectares of
forest reserves were excised in Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the area within forest
reserves planted with rubber, oil palm and other crops jumped from 4,686 hectares in
2005 to 38,387 hectares in 2007.
The largest remaining blocks of lowland dipterocarp forests, which are prime habitats for
large mammals such as the elephant, tiger, wild ox and rhinoceros, include Taman
3-23
National Physical Plan-2
-2
Negara and its surrounding forest reserves, Endau-Rompin National Park, Krau Wildlife
Reserve, as well as forest reserves such as Ibam Forest Reserve (Pahang) and Lenggor
Forest Reserve (Johor). Most other remaining lowland forests occur in patches, too small
or isolated to sustain viable populations of large mammals in the near future.
While significant portions of the two major peat swamp forest complexes in North
Selangor and South-east Pahang have been severely degraded or converted for
agriculture, there is now a noteworthy effort to sustainably manage and rehabilitate these
important carbon sinks.
Forest ecosystems in the coastal zones are probably the most severely threatened due to
high development pressure. As a result, only remnants of unique coastal forests remain,
such as Gelam Forests on the east coast, coastal hill dipterocarp forests in Terengganu
and Perak as well as freshwater swamp forests in the Sedili area of Johor.
iv. Water Bodies
Water bodies, which include major rivers, reservoirs and ponds, account for about 1.9%
of Peninsular Malaysia. This category also includes ex-mining ponds which are strongly
represented in Perak.
There are relatively small areas ascribed to ‘water bodies’ for Melaka (1.4 ha.), Perlis (1.8
ha.), Pulau Pinang (2.4 ha.) and Negeri Sembilan (3.9 ha.).
Areas attributed to water bodies in Kedah and Selangor at 2.0% and 2.6% of the two
states’ area respectively, is a minuscule 18,700 hectares and 20,000 hectares compared
to the 65,000 hectares for Perak and 50,600 hectares for Terengganu.
3.3.4
Existing Settlement Pattern
The existing settlement pattern is a product of the country’s past and present economic
and socio-political changes where the various modes of production and transportation
have determined the geographical spread of activities, and hence of the people.
Along the development process of Malaysia, changes in the political settings, consumer
preferences, lifestyles and technology have resulted in new and evolving economic
circumstances. These circumstances bring about changes in the centres of production,
urban form and also in settlement patterns. Owing to social factors, reluctance of the
people to adjust and the desire for full recovery of the costs of infrastructure and other
heavy investments, the changes take its pace slowly.
The emergence of a new economic regime does not necessarily wipe out the settlement
pattern generated by a previous regime but rather, in some circumstances, modifies and
builds upon it. Changes in the economic regime can, however, occur very rapidly, a
process likely to be enhanced with the rapid spread and adoption of technology. This
3-24
National Physical Plan-2
-2
process has and is likely to continue to impact upon the present settlement pattern in
Peninsular Malaysia.
The present pattern for the Peninsular includes a dominant zone of relatively welldeveloped cities and towns, plantations and commercial farms along the West Coast from
the foothills of the central mountain range to the coast. The larger cities and towns are
mainly engaged in manufacturing and the provision of services. The smaller towns
provide local retail services and government-sponsored services to the public, with
scattered incidences of manufacturing. However, there remain pockets of subsistence
farming within this zone as well as a concentration of such subsistence farming within the
northern periphery of the zone in eastern Kedah and in Perlis.
To the east of the main Mountain Range, there is no clear zone of development and
human settlements. The population centres are generally scattered but with
concentrations in the Kelantan delta, the Terengganu estuary area and the western
foothills of Pahang, along the East Coast and along the rivers. Most of the settlements
still engage in semi subsistence farming. Within the same area are also the more recent
human settlements from the previous Regional Development Authorities of southern
Kelantan (KESEDAR), central Terengganu (KETENGAH), JENGKA, south-east Pahang
(DARA) and south-east Johor (KEJORA).
Industrial activities have penetrated into Kuantan, Southern Terengganu and Central
Pahang. Tourism has also become important to the coastal zone and offshore islands.
However, the East coast of the Peninsular is generally less well developed than its
western half.
A system of roads, rails, ports and airports supports the settlement pattern of the country.
Generally, however, the communication and transportation network is better developed
on the West Coast than on the East Coast. A highway (North-South Expressway) runs
the length of the West Coast while another highway (East Coast Expressway) to the East
Coast is now a reality. A railway also runs the length of the West Coast, while the railway
on the East Coast runs only half its length and through the middle of the country rather
than along the coast. The three major ports (that are Port Klang, Port of Tanjung Pelepas
and Penang Port) and Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA) are located on the West
Coast. The infrastructure system reflects the economic dominance of the West Coast.
Over the past few decades, Peninsular Malaysia has been experiencing rapid
urbanisation with the proportion of the Peninsular’s population living in urban areas
increasing from 26.7% in 1970 to 65.4% in year 2000. Not only has the population shifted
towards urban areas but the urban population itself has also become more concentrated
into a small number of conurbations, namely the towns and urban areas around Kuala
Lumpur, George Town and Johor Bahru. These three conurbations account for almost
54% of the Peninsular’s population and likely to increase to 75% by year 2020.
Urbanisation is characterised not only by rural-urban migration but also in-migration to the
conurbations resulting a vast decrease in the population economies of the villages and
3-25
National Physical Plan-2
-2
rural areas. Although most villages retain their older residents, remote villages are likely
to atrophy and disappear. With a few notable exceptions, major and minor urban centres
outside the conurbations are also losing their share of the urban population in favour of
the conurbations.
The settlement pattern as envisaged in the National Urbanization Policy is as follows:
i.
National Growth Conurbation: Kuala Lumpur Conurbation
The Kuala Lumpur Conurbation, which encompasses Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Shah
Alam, Klang, Nilai and Seremban, is proposed as the National Growth Conurbation.
Effectively, the Kuala Lumpur Conurbation stretches from Kuala Selangor in the north to
Port Dickson in the south. The Kuala Lumpur Conurbation is to provide for a potential
population of 10.37 million or 37% of the Peninsular Malaysia population by year 2020.
A major issue for the Kuala Lumpur Conurbation is the need for further in-depth studies to
address the need for creating and sharing of more space, particularly mixed-uses and
higher density in previously developed areas as well as a mass rapid transit system in
view of environmental aspects and implications on the quality of life within the
conurbation. This review should also establish zones of green lungs to provide for identity
of communities as well as regional recreational space.
ii.
Regional Growth Conurbation
The strengthening of the Regional Growth Conurbations is aimed to spread effectively the
opportunities in realising a more balanced social, economic and physical development
across Peninsular Malaysia. At the same time, this is intended to counterbalance the
tendency of over-concentration of economic activities and people in Kuala Lumpur
Conurbation. Regional Growth Conurbations are of city-region spatial scale where the
core urban areas draw people for work and services, such as shopping and leisure. To
drive the development of the surrounding regions, the areas must be of sufficient size and
critical mass. In this respect, the economic performance of the city-region will improve
significantly through stronger functional linkages in the supply chain and agglomeration
economies. In addition, the Regional Growth Conurbations, like Kuantan, will link out to
the wider regional hinterland in ECER, to catalyst and support the development of the
smaller towns, villages and rural areas.
3-26
National Physical Plan-2
-2
FIGURE 3.7 : URBAN HIERARCHY LINKAGES
National Growth Conurbation
State Growth Conurbation
Regional Growth Conurbation
District Growth Conurbation
Major Trasportation Linkages
Sub-regional Growth Conurbation
Source: National Physical Plan-2, 2010
3-27
National Physical Plan-2
-2
The Regional Growth Conurbations are as follows:
x
Northern Region – George Town Conurbation
This is an area which is based in Pulau Pinang and the adjacent areas of southern
Kedah and northern Perak. This conurbation has been referred to as the George
Town Conurbation for the Northern Region.
In the case of George Town Conurbation, the proposed conurbation area will extend
into three states, namely: Pulau Pinang, southern Kedah, and northern Perak. The
George Town Conurbation is expected to provide a support population of about 2.4
million by year 2020.
x
Southern Region – Johor Bahru Conurbation
The Johor Bahru Conurbation is expected to provide for a population of 2.4 million by
2020. The area is envisaged to cover the southern part of the state stretching from
Tanjung Pelepas in the west to Pasir Gudang in the east.
x
Eastern Region – Kuantan Conurbation
The strategic location, infrastructural facilities and comparative advantage has
warranted Kuantan as a Regional Growth Conurbation, although on size alone it
functions at a lower level. It is expected the Kuantan Conurbation extending into
southern Terengganu will emerge with a population of about 1.4 million by year 2020;
and will function as a focus point for the East Coast growth.
iii. Sub-Regional Growth Conurbations
Ipoh and Melaka will play the role as Sub-Regional Growth Conurbations to support the
Regional Growth Conurbations. In the post-2020 period subject to development of highspeed rail connections, Melaka could potentially represent a southern growth (connective)
conurbation to the Kuala Lumpur Conurbation.
iv. State Growth Conurbations
The remaining state capitals, namely: Kota Bahru, Alor Setar, Kuala Terengganu and
Kangar perform the next layer of the hierarchical functions of central importance. They
functions as the main administrative, commercial, financial, social and cultural centre
serving the whole state. However, many state capitals are not likely to grow economically
in the current fierce global competitive climate.
3-28
National Physical Plan-2
-2
v. District Growth Conurbations
Within the Peninsular context, there exist a number of distinct lower order conurbations
which are manufacturing and service centres in their own right. These conurbations cater
not only to the international markets but also to local rural areas. Examples of these wellestablished towns are Muar-Batu Pahat-Kluang Conurbation and the emerging centres of
Temerloh Conurbation and the Lumut-Setiawan-Manjung Conurbation.
vi. Major and Minor Settlement Centres
Towns between 10,001 to 100,000 populations are classified as Major and Minor
Settlement Centres. Some of the these settlement centres except for those towns located
within the spheres of influence of the conurbation and special features towns like
Temerloh-Mentakab, Lumut-Sitiawan-Manjung or bigger towns like Muar-Batu PahatKluang are diminishing. This is a result of the impact of the changing structure of the
Malaysian economy.
Major and Minor Settlement Centres which are also known as Small and Intermediate
towns had developed based on trade with and services to their hinterlands, including
administrative services. The hinterland economies which are mainly based on agriculture
however, have not expanded. Either such towns industrialise like those within the sphere
of influence of the conurbations, or expand their economies based on a special feature,
their growth will remain constrained. At the same time, due to rising incomes in the major
urban centers, these smaller towns are faced with the pressure of out-migration of the
younger population. The result is generally a population decline, although the total
economies of the towns may not decline.
The process of decline is likely to be slow as the older generation of shopkeepers will
cling on to their businesses in spite of the continuous marginalisation that they face. But
their children would be unlikely to continue their businesses and are more likely to
migrate out, contributing to the out flow of population into the conurbations.
On the other hand, major and minor settlement centres that are located within the
expansion sphere of the conurbations are likely to be absorbed and become satellite
towns or suburbs to the main metropolis of the conurbation. They are likely to experience
very rapid population growth and dramatic changes in their employment base. In the last
decade, several towns, such as Nilai, Rawang, Balakong, Senai and Ulu Tiram have
gone through this experience. As transportation facilities such as highways and fast train
connections from the conurbations extend further out, more major and minor settlement
centres will benefit from development expansion from the urban cores.
Artificial injection of investments into those towns that are declining does not make for
economic efficiency. Government policies should not aim at stemming the demographic
changes but in helping the major and minor settlement centres become small prosperous
places. They are still needed by the rural population even if the rural areas can only
sustain a limited trading population. Entrepreneurs from these towns should provide the
3-29
National Physical Plan-2
-2
linkage between the urbanised economy of the cities and the rural areas. They should be
supported in their agricultural, service and other enterprises. Educational and training
programmes to help prepare the younger population to migrate and integrate into the
urban economy must be encouraged.
vii. Rural Growth Centres
Rural Growth Centres (RGC) and rural settlements are areas whose settlements have
with a population of less than 10,000 people. RGCs are key central villages that could
conveniently serve a rural hinterland made up of several rural settlements. They are
provided with basic social facilities and local services to serve the surrounding
settlements. These settlements include traditional villages, new villages outside urban
areas, fishing villages, agricultural estates settlements, Orang Asli settlements, FELDA
and FELCRA settlements. At present, rural settlements are nested with the category of
land identified as ‘agriculture’.
The main source of income for these settlements is farming, mainly the cultivation of oil
palm, rubber, paddy and fruits orchards. Vegetable farming are carried out at specific
locations such as Cameron Highlands, Lojing, Johor Bharu, Muar, Batu Pahat, Tumpat
and Sepang; while other crops such as field crops, spices and herbs are grown in small
areas. To supplement their income, they also rear livestock and aquaculture production.
For the fishermen, most are involved in coastal fishing.
In the process of urbanisation and rural out-migration, many of the rural settlements are
likely to become depopulated and are no longer economically viable. It may become
necessary to consolidate the rural population at the RGCs, which will also make it
possible for the services provided to be improved and enhanced. Rural services
especially education and health should be re-examined to match them with the emergent
new structure of the rural population.
The biggest issue or challenge in the rural settlements is relatively low income of the rural
population which is mainly dependent on farm income. The main reason for this is that
the size of agricultural land owned or worked by each farmer is too small to enable them
to earn a decent income. Even the FELDA farmers who are considered to be the best
example of farmers with good income only has 3.2 hectares of land per family, while
RISDA reported that the average holdings for small holders is 2.3 hectares Many farmers
in the traditional villages only work on farms with less than 2 hectares of land.
3-30