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IISD-GWSP Conference on the Water-EnergyFood Security Nexus May 1-4, 2012, Winnipeg Basin Case Study: Danube River Basin H.P. Nachtnebel IWHW-BOKU H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Structure of presentation • What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin ? • What drives water management and transboundary cooperation in the Danube basin? • Which linkages can be identified ? H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Some figures about the basin • Countries: • Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Republic of Yugoslavia, Montenegro, BosniaHercegowina, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany • Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Macedonia, Albania • Figures: • Length: 2857 km • Area: 817.000 km2 • Population: 84-86 Mio. H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the basin ? • Political changes • Severe economic changes • Climate change H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin The last 20 years • Collapse of Yugoslavia in a civil war ten thousands were killed, hundred thousands were expatriated • New states have been established Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, BosniaHercegowina, Makedonia, Montenegro • Politically unsettled problems (Kosovo, Transnistria) • Political transition: CZ,SLW,HU,SLV,BLG,ROM are EU members • CRO will become 2013 a member state • MA, SE are accession states H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Economic Status and Development • Large gradient in GDP/capita from upstream to downstream • Economic growth rate in some downstream countries is larger than upstream (RO, BLG, UK, .) • The economy is very volatile H.P. Nachtnebel GDP (€/capita/year) Germany Austria Czech Republic Slovakia Slovenia Hungary Croatia Serbia Bulgaria Romania Ukraine Moldova 29 215 25 521 13 226 11 150 14 700 11 243 7 460 950 8 010 5 260 3 700 350 Danube Basin Water and environment • Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Water and environment • Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor • Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Environmental Problems and Pressures • Water pollution in tributary basins (also in drinking water) • Nutrient load and euthrophication • Sensitive ecological areas are endangered • The Black Sea is endangered (it accumulates all the pollutants) • Morphological changes of the rivers H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Nutrient loads (N and P) H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Aquatic Pollution: H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Human Intervention • Numerous reservoirs for irrigation supply changes in the runoff pattern • Water abstraction instream water requirements are essential • Channelisation of rivers degradation of river morphology • Environmental degradation losses in wetlands and flood plains H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Pressures on wetlands H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Impacts of climate change RCM data • RCM models from ENSEMBLES • 25x25km resolution • Selection criteria good performance in PRUDENCE different driving GCM cover full project area RCM resolution 25x25 km • Aladin (ARPEGE), by MeteoFrance • PROMES (driving HADCM3Q), spanish • RegCM (driving ECHAM5 r3) by ICTP 3 proposed RCMs 2nd SAB Budapest 16.-17.11.2010 Regional Climate Model (RegCM3): Changes until 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 Changes in mean annual precipitation Changes in mean annual temperature (Nachtnebel et al., from CCWater-S project, 2012) Impacts of climate change • Tmean will increase 1.1. -2.2 0C until 2050 and 2.8 -3.6 0C until 2100 • T increase is stronger in the South • T increase is stronger in summer • P: unclear picture • P seems to decrease in the South, especially in spring and in summer • Weak statements for extremes H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin What drives transboundary cooperation ? • Large gradient in economic development • Major political changes in Central and Eastern Europe (after 1991) • Transformation of legislation and administration in former Eastern countries • Water pollution and environmental degradation • International river (navigation) H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Mode of cooperation • From bilateral agreements to basin wide agreements • Establishment of ICPDR • From a single objective approach to an integrated approach H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Summary and Conclusions • There is a clear upstrem downstream gradient • The direct human impacts on the water cycle are strong (in both quantity and quality) • The climate change signla exhibits lareg uncertainties with respect to rainfall • Only the increase in temperature will have severe impacts on the water system, especially in downstream countries. H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Summary and Conclusions: • Danube is the most international river in the world • Political and economic transition in several countries has substantial impacts on environment • Political transition stimulated basin wide cooperation • From bilateral to a multi-lateral and integrated approach • Some major transboundary problems exist - Euthrophication - Some major pollution sources - Impacts on the Delta and Black Sea - The Gabcikovo hydropower case H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin Thank you for your attention H.P. Nachtnebel Danube Basin