Download Case Study Danube River Basin

IISD-GWSP Conference on the Water-EnergyFood Security Nexus
May 1-4, 2012, Winnipeg
Basin Case Study: Danube River Basin
H.P. Nachtnebel
IWHW-BOKU
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Structure of presentation
• What are the magnitudes of anthropogenic and
environmental changes in the basin ?
• What drives water management and transboundary
cooperation in the Danube basin?
• Which linkages can be identified ?
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Some figures about the basin
• Countries:
• Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Republic
of Yugoslavia, Montenegro, BosniaHercegowina, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary,
Slovakia, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany
• Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Macedonia, Albania
• Figures:
• Length:
2857 km
• Area:
817.000 km2
• Population:
84-86 Mio.
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Magnitudes of anthropogenic and
environmental changes in the basin ?
• Political changes
• Severe economic changes
• Climate change
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
The last 20 years
• Collapse of Yugoslavia in a civil war
ten thousands were killed, hundred thousands were
expatriated
• New states have been established
Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, BosniaHercegowina, Makedonia, Montenegro
• Politically unsettled problems (Kosovo, Transnistria)
• Political transition: CZ,SLW,HU,SLV,BLG,ROM are EU
members
• CRO will become 2013 a member state
• MA, SE are accession states
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Economic Status and Development
• Large gradient in GDP/capita
from upstream to downstream
• Economic growth rate in some
downstream countries is larger
than upstream (RO, BLG, UK, .)
• The economy is very volatile
H.P. Nachtnebel
GDP
(€/capita/year)
Germany
Austria
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Croatia
Serbia
Bulgaria
Romania
Ukraine
Moldova
29 215
25 521
13 226
11 150
14 700
11 243
7 460
950
8 010
5 260
3 700
350
Danube Basin
Water and environment
• Agriculture is still a quite important economic
factor
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Water and environment
• Agriculture is still a quite important economic factor
• Agriculturalal water demands are still quite high
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Environmental Problems and Pressures
• Water pollution in tributary basins
(also in drinking water)
• Nutrient load and euthrophication
• Sensitive ecological areas are endangered
• The Black Sea is endangered
(it accumulates all the pollutants)
• Morphological changes of the rivers
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Nutrient loads (N and P)
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Aquatic Pollution:
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Human Intervention
• Numerous reservoirs for irrigation supply
changes in the runoff pattern
• Water abstraction
instream water requirements are essential
• Channelisation of rivers
degradation of river morphology
• Environmental degradation
losses in wetlands and flood plains
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Pressures on wetlands
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Impacts of climate change
RCM data
• RCM models from ENSEMBLES
• 25x25km resolution
• Selection criteria
 good performance in PRUDENCE
 different driving GCM
 cover full project area
RCM resolution 25x25 km
• Aladin (ARPEGE), by MeteoFrance
• PROMES (driving HADCM3Q), spanish
• RegCM (driving ECHAM5 r3) by ICTP
3 proposed RCMs
2nd SAB Budapest 16.-17.11.2010
Regional Climate Model (RegCM3):
Changes until 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990
Changes in mean annual precipitation
Changes in mean annual temperature
(Nachtnebel et al., from CCWater-S project, 2012)
Impacts of climate change
• Tmean will increase 1.1. -2.2 0C until 2050 and 2.8 -3.6
0C until 2100
• T increase is stronger in the South
• T increase is stronger in summer
• P: unclear picture
• P seems to decrease in the South, especially in
spring and in summer
• Weak statements for extremes
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
What drives transboundary cooperation ?
• Large gradient in economic development
• Major political changes in Central and Eastern
Europe (after 1991)
• Transformation of legislation and administration
in former Eastern countries
• Water pollution and environmental degradation
• International river (navigation)
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Mode of cooperation
• From bilateral agreements to basin wide
agreements
• Establishment of ICPDR
• From a single objective approach to an
integrated approach
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Summary and Conclusions
• There is a clear upstrem downstream gradient
• The direct human impacts on the water cycle are
strong (in both quantity and quality)
• The climate change signla exhibits lareg uncertainties
with respect to rainfall
• Only the increase in temperature will have severe
impacts on the water system, especially in
downstream countries.
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Summary and Conclusions:
• Danube is the most international river in the world
• Political and economic transition in several countries
has substantial impacts on environment
• Political transition stimulated basin wide cooperation
• From bilateral to a multi-lateral and integrated
approach
• Some major transboundary problems exist
- Euthrophication
- Some major pollution sources
- Impacts on the Delta and Black Sea
- The Gabcikovo hydropower case
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin
Thank you for your attention
H.P. Nachtnebel
Danube Basin