Download N.Kuchukova Doctor of Economics, the professor Methods of

N.Kuchukova
Doctor of Economics, the professor
Methods of overcoming of financial crises
and post crisis development of economy of Kazakhstan.
Modern crisis has arisen in a financial system of the developed countries, first
of all in the USA, and then spread over to the Western Europe which financial
institutions have been closely connected with the American financial market.
The financial globalization allowing financial institutions to expand the presence at
the various countries, has led to shocks in the national interbank markets worldwide
(including Kazakhstan – it happened through the market of interbank credits and
loans of the Kazakhstan banks at foreign banks) in August, 2007.
Financial globalization can be defined as growing financial interdependence of the
countries of all world of as a result quickly increasing volume of the international
financial transactions and world streams of the capital with use of variety of financial
tools under influence of modern electronic technologies, means of communications
and information.
Potential instability of the financial markets also increases together with
globalization. The majority of the countries has tested simultaneously three strong
shock impacts: the financial shocks which have sharply limited access to external
financing; falling of demand for the goods and services in the countries with the
developed market economy; reduction of prices on the raw goods, first of all, on
energy carriers.
Scales and depth of consequences of world financial crisis in the different
countries were various. In many respects it has been caused by a degree of stability of
national bank system, an overall performance of credit institutes, a level of
dependence on foreign and corporate financial structures, volumes of the external
duty, the developed structure of national economy and its competitiveness.
World financial and economic crisis 2007-2008 which have burst on a
background of a deepening of processes of globalization, compels the different
countries to search for effective ways and methods on overcoming its consequences,
to improve the economic policy, to correct strategy of modernization of national
economies with the purpose of increase of stability and competitiveness in new
conditions.
The most important measures on struggle against the crisis undertaken by
different countries of the world were:
- Rescue large commercial banks or by state granting of liquid means
necessary by them, or by their nationalization;
- Development of the special anti-crises program and formation of financial fund
for its realization;
- Measures on strengthening a role of the state in regulation of a financial
system;
- Direct financial support of the large companies of the real sector having the
important social and economic value for the country;
- Decrease in tax burden of business;
-Measures on struggle against unemployment and social support needy.
In total for maintenance of financial stability in the world means about 10-15 %
of volume of a domestic product (GDP) or more 10 trillion dollar have been allocated.
In Kazakhstan the sum of anti-crises measures has exceeded 14 trillion dollar.
To the beginning of world crisis commercial banks of Kazakhstan got external loans
45 billion dollar therefore after approach of world financial crisis in bank sector of
Kazakhstan the situation has sharply worsened: their access to external loan was
limited, the price of borrowed current assets increased, there were difficulties with
repayment of former debts and crediting of real sector of economy in connection with
their insufficient liquidity, threat of bankruptcy of banks with all the ensuing
consequences following from here with all the ensuing consequences hovered over.
In these conditions of authority of Kazakhstan estimated realistic a situation and
correct economic decisions on an output of the country from crisis made. Kazakhstan
was one of the first among the CIS countries promulgated, initiated by President
Noursultan Nazarbaevym, and developed by the Government of Republic
Kazakhstan, National Bank and Agency RK on regulation and supervision of the
financial market and the financial organizations the Plan of joint actions on
stabilization of economy and a financial system for 2009-2010 which provided system
measures on overcoming the arisen problems.
First of all have been supported major banks. On them capitalization it has been
directed 4 billion dollar, which raised their liquidity and helped to finance real
projects. Except for support of bank sector, it has been invested 1 billion dollar in
agriculture, 1 billion dollar - on development of small and average business, 1 billion
dollars - on realization innovative infrastructural and industrial projects.
As a whole, an anti-crises package of the state, including tax indulgences (on
500 billion tenge or 4 billion dollar) and decrease in reserve requirements for banks
under internal obligations with 5 up to 2 %, on others with 7 up to 3 % (on 350 billion
tenge or less than 3 billion dollar), made 2,2 trillion tenge or over 14,0 % of gross
national product (GDP) of the country. As a result of realization of the Plan of joint
actions in 2009 real growth of gross national product in 1,1 % has been provided.
In 2010 realization of the anti-crises programs directed on mitigation of
consequences of world economic recession and creation of a steady basis of post
crisis development of the country has been continued. Owing to efforts of the
Government, the companies and banks re-structuring of debts of two banks – BANK
TURAN ALEM and ALIANS BANK has been successfully lead, according to a
motoring map of business were new workplaces were opened, so unemployment was
reduced, additional capacities are entered, priority projects are actively financed,
quickens small-scale and large-scale business and its structure through financing of
the enterprises of real sector varies. In the Tax code operating since January, 1st,
2009, tax burden on real sectors of a manufacturing industry, on small-scale and
large-scale business and on an infrastructure is lowered. Since January 2010
realization of the State program of the forced industrially-innovative development of
economy of Kazakhstan began, accustom new internal and foreign markets (the
Chinese direction of export of grain, oil, gas, an iron and steel industry), is carried out
inflow of investments from China, South Korea, the Islamic countries, etc.
As a result of the accepted measures, on a tentative estimation of the Ministry
of economic development and trade of Republic Kazakhstan (by the end of January,
2011), a real gain of a total internal product in 2010 made 7,0 %, a rate of
unemployment decreased by the end of 2010 up to 5,5 %, monetary per capita
incomes grew in real expression by 6,3 %, real wages - by 7,5 %, inflation made 7,8
%.
According to Agency of Republic Kazakhstan on regulation and supervision of
the financial market and the financial organizations (press release AFS on 01.01.11,
№ 241) the total sum of deposits of commercial banks grew for 2010 by 821,5 billion
tenge or by 13,7 % and made on the beginning 2011 6,8 trillion tenge. The sum of
contributions of the population also increased on 150,9 billion tenge or by 12,5 % and
exceeded 2,2 trillion tenge (33 % from a total sum of contributions of clients).
Cumulative actives of banks for 2010 by 480,7 billion tenge or by 4,2 % grew and
made 12,0 trillion tenge.
As a whole high growth of gross national product of Kazakhstan in 2010 (7,0
%) was natural for the regenerative post crisis period as there was an effect of low
base, niches which were reduced during reduction of demand were restored. As well
the cumulative size of the international reserves of the country increased, including
currency actives of National fund which made on the end 2010 59 billion dollar. Gold
and currency actives of National bank of the country for 2010 increased for 22,5 %
and made 28,3 billion dollar.
The formation of uniform customs territory begun with July, 1st, 2010 allowed
to increase a commodity market of production of the Kazakhstan commodity
producers from 16 million up to 168 million customers. All this together with
accepted measures on improvement business-climate in the country allowed to
provide stimulus for diversification economy by attraction of foreign and domestic
investments into processing sectors of economy.
Anti-crises and post crisis achievements of Kazakhstan are recognized on
international scene. Besides anti-recessionary measures and work on strengthening a
financial system, it is highly estimated by the international experts and activity of the
Kazakhstan government on improvement business-environment. From year to year
Kazakhstan raises the positions in a rating of World bank Doing Business. If to look
in dynamics it turns out, that from 71 places in 2007 Kazakhstan rose up to 59-th
place (on new technique) in 2010, having overtaken many states CIS. So, Belarus was
on 68th place, Russia - 123, Ukraine - 145, Uzbekistan - 150. The state increased
financial support of business, have been taken measures on elimination of
administrative barriers, tax reform is lead and the new Tax Code which has
considerably lowered tax burden on subjects small-scale and large-scale is accepted,
and also improved tax administration and simplified tax procedures.
According to the Report published in May, 2010 on world competitiveness of
the International institute of development of management (IMD), Kazakhstan was on
33 place from 58 countries, having risen on 3 positions since 2009 and left 39 line in
2008. And in the rating of British independent scientific research institute Legatum
published in October, 2010, Kazakhstan was on 50-th place, advancing Belarus (54),
Russia (63) and Ukraine (69) and having improved not only parameters of 2009 (76
place from 104), but also parameters of 2008 (56-th line).
In 2011 the economic policy pursued by the Government of Republic, National
bank and АFS, will be directed on increase of competitiveness of the Kazakhstan
economy; realization of the programs directed on diversification of economy, first of
all on State program of Industrial Innovative Development; maintenance of stable
employment and growth of incomes of the population; realization of the state
programs of development of the human capital, including education, public health
services and development of languages.
Result of economic policy in 2011 will become real growth of gross national
product at a level of 4-5 %, maintenance of a rate of inflation in a corridor of 6-8 %.
As a whole the purposes, being lessons of crisis, is a maintenance of average rates of
growth of gross national product, without an overheat of economy, with improvement
of quality of growth, including change of structure of economy, growth of innovative
activity, growth of labour productivity.
The world today is the most complicated self-regulation system which is
difficult to conrol. In these conditions occuring complex processes increase quantity
of the dangers connected with economic, political, ecological and other kinds of risks.
Realization of a state policy can be accompanied by a lot of the negative factors
influencing results of activity.
The world financial community marks nowadays as significant lacks of
development of measures absence of the account of system risks in the
macroeconomic policy. Global financial crisis showed imperfection of systems of
supervision of many countries which consist not in the form of restriction of
supervision, and in absence of immediacy of accepted decisions and a coordination of
actions between the Government, the central bank and a regulator.
In this connection, one of key directions of reforming of financial sector in
universal scale is development macro-prudential approach and maintenance of macrofinancial stability by means of introduction and strengthening of mechanisms of
settlement of system risks.
For the purposes of maintenance of efficiency and a coordination of measures
of economic policy, and also within the limits of effective realization macro-
prudential regulation the world financial community adheres to a position about
necessity of creation of the incorporated Committees or the Advice of a high level
responsible for questions of financial stability and development of measures of policy
directed on regulation and prevention of system risks.
In particular, within the limits of reforming financial regulation in the USA it is
offered to create under direction of Exchequer of the USA Advice on supervision of
financial services which according to the report of Exchequer of the USA should will
to provide interaction and coordination between Exchequer, FRS and six supervising
bodies of the USA. Similar Advice on system risks are recommended for EU and for
the Great Britain.
Within the limits of introduction and development macro-prudential the
approach in Kazakhstan strengthening coordination of actions monetary, fiscal and
supervising bodies for development macro-prudential the financial policy directed on
prevention of negative influence on a financial system of internal system risks and
risks of macroeconomic is necessary.
Working body within the limits of macro-prudential financial policy should
become Management of financial stability of National bank of Republic Kazakhstan
which basic function should become realization of monitoring and an estimation of
system risks on the basis of gathering, processing and the analysis of the information
given by similar divisions of supervising and fiscal bodies. Formation and decisionmaking in the field of macro-prudential financial policy will be carried out jointly and
in coordination.
Modern financial and economic crisis called also into question efficiency of the
American financial model of capitalism and its viability in conditions of the global
market. The situation is aggravated also with that the American dollar still plays a role
of world reserve currency, therefore "emission" in a financial system of the USA of
hundreds billions of nothing provided dollars can provoke in the further scale system
crisis at the international level.
Processes of globalization demand from state leaders and world financial
community of development of uniform world system of regulation a currency and a
financial system at the international level which will allow to minimize influence of
the external crisis phenomena on national economies as they alone are not capable to
resist to the massed external shocks.
In this connection, it is expedient to realize a number of practical measures at a
level of 20 leading states of the world:
- To create supranational state bodies of the international regulation of processes of
liberalization and internationalization of national bank systems and rendering of the
financial help to national economies for mitigation of negative consequences of world
financial and economic crisis;
- To develop mechanisms of the international control over movement of foreign
capitals, having provided a transparency of bank systems of the countries of the world
that means necessity of radical reforming of all international currency-financial
system;
- At a transitive stage to admit an opportunity of formation of the new world and
regional financial and economic centers with use of the multicurrency standard;
- To consider an opportunity of development in the long term supranational world
currency for maintenance of currency-economic safety in the world.
It is necessary liquidate the reasons of global financial crisis, to stop
expansion of dollar due to escalating budgetary deficiency, to liquidate the fictitious
capital, made by speculative operations at stock exchanges and other financial
markets.
For overcoming the designated system crisis rather long time is required, and
inevitably it is necessary to make sooner or later transition to essentially other
scientific paradigm of the development of economy and a society.
The literature:
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