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ClimTrans2050
"ClimTrans2050"
Open source model for analyzing Austria’s
transition to a low carbon society by 2050 –
A research plan
Angela Köppl, WIFO
Klimatag
Graz, 6.-8. April 2016
ClimTrans2050
ClimTrans2050 project team
 The project team

WIFO: Claudia Kettner, Angela Köppl, Stefan Schleicher,
Katharina Köberl, Christian Hofer

Wegener Center: Gabriel Bachner, Thomas Schinko,
Karl Steininger

UBA: Jürgen Schneider, Ilse Schindler, Thomas Krutzler,
Thomas Gallauner

IIASA: Matthias Jonas, Piotr Żebrowski
ClimTrans2050
Why a research plan for an
open source model?

Policy needs guidance for long run transition

Available tools to capture these processes not sufficient

Application of existing economic models to the very long run faces
limitations (Pindyck (2013, 2015), Rosen (2015), State of EU
Environment Report (2015))


Changes in the capital stock (Breakthrough technologies) need to be
addressed

Analysis of radical vs. incremental path changes

Detailed modeling of energy, emissions and economic structures –
deepened structural modeling
Guiding questions:

What kind of modeling framework for assessing long term
transformation process?

Which model extensions allow a better understanding of transformation
options?
ClimTrans2050
Content of the
ClimTrans2050 Research Plan (1)

Research Plan presents a first step for a new modeling approach

Aims at coherent and understandable modeling guidelines that put
the focus on functionalities (relating to housing, mobility, nutrition,
etc.)

Focus on stocks and flows that together supply functionalities

A setting that allows to integrate the research activities in a stepwise
manner, ultimately arriving at an open-source model that fully covers
the Austrian emission inventory in relation to the three tiers.

A new perspective for modeling activities in view of a 2050 horizon

A modeling framework that is able to analyze transition processes

A new perspective on energy, emissions and economic structures

Embedding of national emission target paths consistently into global
context
ClimTrans2050

Content of the
ClimTrans2050 Research Plan (2)
Deepened structural modeling framework along a
three tier approach

Physical, economic and institutional dimension

An exemplary model module as illustration and application of the
deepened structural approach to analyzing energy systems.

Web-based platform for disseminating the research plan and
exemplary model modules to stakeholders and the research
community

Identification and guidance for the next research steps

following the three tier approach
ClimTrans2050
Mindset: Functionalities and the
three tier approach

Functionalities (e.g. nutrition, shelter, mobility) are the outcome of the
interaction of stocks (e.g. buildings and machinery) and flows (e.g.
energy, materials)

The concept of functionalities


aims at capturing the ultimate purpose of economic activities

emphasizes the interaction between stocks and flows

allows to capture the impact in the investment and operating phase

allows to capture details in technologies
The concept of functionalities is made operational along three tiers

Tier 1 is dealing with the physical structure of the system that finally
determines the amount of emissions

Tier 2 represents techno-economic dimension (capital stocks and flows;
availability of technologies, investment and operating costs)

Tier 3 considers the embedding of tier 1 and tier 2 into an institutional
setting (instruments, mechanisms, behavioral change)
Stock-flow interactions for
providing functionalities
ClimTrans2050
resource
flow
r
A
Δr
functionality
S(r, K)
B
ΔK
capital stock &
infrastructure
K
ClimTrans2050
Mainstream Modeling
Final consumption
of reproducibles
Resources
reproducible, human
Reproducibles
of
goods and services
Intermediate
consumption
of reproducibles
Investments
for replacement, expansion, of
reproducible resources
ClimTrans2050
Deepened Structural Modeling
for the Three Tiers Approach
Deepened structural modeling
Final consumption
for functionalities
Stock of
Resources
Natural resources:
renewable, exhaustible,
soil, air, water
Man-made resources:
reproducible, human,
social
Functionalities
shelter, nutrition
mobility, communication
Flow of
Reproducibles
Environmental impact
goods and services for
functionalities
via consumption
and for resources
via investments
Intermediate
consumption
for functionalities
Investments
for replacement, expansion,
recycling, regeneration of
resources
ClimTrans2050
Life styles
Social dimension
Final
consumption
Market
mechanisms
Stock of
Resources
Natural resources:
renewable, exhaustible,
soil, air, water
Man-made resources:
reproducible, human,
social
Functionalities
shelter, nutrition
mobility, communication
Environmental impact
Flow of
Reproducibles
goods and services for
functionalities
via consumption
and for resources
via investments
Intermediate
consumption
for functionalities
Investments
for replacement, expansion,
recycling, regeneration of
resources
Public and private
finance
Market based
instruments
Non-market based
instruments
for functionalities
ClimTrans2050
Web based Platform:
http://climtrans2050.wifo.ac.
at/tiki-index.php
ClimTrans2050
Thank you for your attention