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Cost of Environmental Degradation
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Dr. Fadi Georges Comair
Director General of Hydraulic &Electric Resources
President of Mediterranean Network of Basin Organization (MENBO)
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20 July 2011
July 2011
Escwa, UN House
Environmental Stakes: Four Big challenges which face the
Mediterranean Basin
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Climate Change
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Water
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Urbanisation
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Bodiversity
Effects of Climate Change
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Warming will occur not only in higher temperatures but also by a
significant decline in rainfall consequently in Water Resources, as well as
a rise in sea levels that will affect coastal areas .
According to (IPCC), the impacts of climate change would be most
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in the Mediterranean region
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important
Increased frequency of extreme climate is in the south and east of Mediterranean, by the lengthening and intensification of drought in countries already semi‐arid. The number of dry days increase uniformly. While the number of frost days decrease everywhere. Heat waves are more numerous in the more continental areas: • Increased risk of flooding. • An amplification of water stress. • A significant increase in desertification and aridity of the soil. y
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• Loss of biodiversity and destruction of coastal landscapes affected by erosion.
Water: Vulnerable sectors and possible impacts of climate change
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The Middle East and North Africa are particuleraly exposed to water
shortage.
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The Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries which constitute
half of the World Population are poor in Water Resources, and 30 million
of them have no access to drinking water sources , about 7% of the total
population.
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According to Data of Blue Plan the Average Renewable Natural Water
Resources of an inhabitant of southern and eastern region in 1990 was
on average 2.5 times lower than that of an inhabitant of the North side.
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Three sources of tension could occur:
o between
between Turkey and its neighbors Syria and Iraq on the project of Euphrates Turkey and its neighbors Syria and Iraq on the project of Euphrates
dam in Anatolia o On the Nile Basin between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (which controls 82% of Nile) o on Jordan Basin (Israel, Palestinian Territories, Jordan)
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Water: Vulnerable sectors and possible impacts of climate change
Countries of Eastern Mediterranean
Impacts
Population threatened by desertification Agricultural Capacity Projected Evolution *
Jordan
Increasing demand for irrigation. The decrease in precipitation would add ld dd
additional stress to already scarce water resources
100%
Lebanon
Increased water stress. Movement of Arable areas to areas more arid climate. Negative impact on the production of lemons, olives, apples and sugar beets.
49%
Syria
Possible impacts on the flow of the Tigris and the Euphrates. Increased demand for irrigation
79%
- 16 %
Turkey
The reduction in flow occurs in the western watershed. Possible impacts on the flow of the Tigris 70%
- 4%
and the Euphrates
Vulnerable sectors and possible impacts of climate change
Countries of south Mediterranean
Agricultural Capacity Projected Evolution *
Algeria
Vulnerability to natural hazards (floods and droughts
53%
-20%
Egypt
Decline in crop productivity and increased
Decline in crop productivity and increased water needs.
Vulnerability in the Nile Delta, large population, increasing sea level
0%
-28%
28%
Libya
Recurrent droughts and reliance on rain‐fed agriculture. Desertification of Jifar Plain in the north‐west.
97%
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Mauritania
Decrease of water resources.
Dependence of water from other countries.
Degradation of arable land.
Pl i d
Plain degradation and loss of livestock
d ti
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f li t k .
98%
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Morocco
The watershed of the Ouergha probably undergoes changes in the flow.
Vulnerability to rising sea level
80%
-30%
Tunisia
The reduction in flow occurs in the western watershed. Possible impacts on the flow of the 70%
-4%
Tigris and the Euphrates
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Population threatened by desertification
Urbanisation
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Urbanization, a threat to:
o Environment and Ecosystems
o Demand and consumption of scarce and non renewable (energy,
water).
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Urban transition is considered complete in the north of the Mediterranean (with 130 million urban and slow growth), the urban population is growing rapidly in South and East of the Mediterranean.
Algeria, Morocco, Syria, Egypt and Jordan will be particularly affected by this phenomenon of rapid urbanization, Egypt and Syria, representing two extreme cases: the urban population is expected to increase by over 85% in the coming 25 years. ¨
Urbanization will increase demand for water, degrading both the quantity and quality. Overall, discharges of urban wastewater and industrial might increase by 30% by 2025 (from 37 to 47 km3).
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Urbanization is a source of air pollution, mainly because energy use.
Energy demand of buildings, transport growth .
Biodiversity
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Marine Biodiversity, is threatened by:
o Introduction of Animals and plant species that repel non‐native
Mediterranean fish on the high seas and elminates other forms of
Marine Life.
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The Mediterranean is also a victim of over‐exploitation of fish stocks which simply may be threatened to dissappear.
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100 Million hectares of forest covering the land are threatened during intensive and longer droughts which could case forest fires.
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UfM is actually launching a program for the Biodiversity preservation mainly to the Mediterranean Basin discharges of:
o Non‐Treated Waste‐water (100Km3/Year)
o Solid waste which is polluting the Northern Coast of the Mediterranean (ex: in Lebanon in Saida,Doara…)
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Consequences of Degradation
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Tourism is a potential victim and a cause of Environmental Degradation
o It weighs on water or food consumption, as well as the growth in
waste production
o It also has a direct impact on emissions of greenhouse gases .
o affect the revenue needed to ensure the financial stability of some affect the revenue needed to ensure the financial stability of some
countries (Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Jordan).
On the Mediteranean Coast the Impacts on Natural Resources and the Environment is already a major concern:
o
o
o
o
o
loss of resources (agricultural soils, shallow),
consumption (water, energy),
pollution (sewage, waste, air pollution),
pollution (congestion transport , noise),
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landscape degradation and, in general,
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Threatened Economic and Social Balances
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Agro‐Climatic Models predict that the combination of declining water resources and loss of arable land will lead to declining yields of major crops in North Africa and the Middle East.
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Over‐consumption of renewable water and rising temperatures associated with climate change would fall by 20% to 50% hydropower i t d ith li t h
ld f ll b 20% t 50% h d
potential (a decrease of annual runoff of 10% would represent for a country like Morocco, the loss of a large dam per year ). Coastal erosion, the risk of storms, floods.
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The deterioration of the environment can affect health and well‐being, especially the poor. According to the UN, urban pollution kills 800,000 people each year worldwide.
Food security is threatened by environmental degradation, including the y
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scarcity of drinking water and alteration of water quality,
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The lack of sanitation creates environmental and health risks, particularly related to direct exposure to waste‐water and contamination of drinking water.
High financial impact
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The Economic Costs of Climate Change were evaluated on the basis of current environmental degradation. These estimates represent:
o Material costs (destruction),
o Economic (production losses),
o Human (impact on health spending, additional economic weight flow of climate refugees increase in poverty )
climate refugees, increase in poverty ...). ¨
For the Mediterranean, the financial impact will likely be very high. In Egypt, an increase of 0.5 meter above the sea level would result in losses exceeding $ 35 billion and displacing two million people.
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In 2100, according to IPCC, the effects of climate change in some areas could cause an average decline in GDP of 2.5% (south) and 1.9% (East). with a more drastic warming, the decline in GDP would be of average 3.5% in Africa and the Middle East, due to loss of agricultural land, f
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threats to coastal cities and desertification.
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The poorest people are most affected and the cumulative effects of events. Cost of Environmental Degradation: Case of Lebanon
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Category Analysis.
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The analysis and estimates have been organized into these categories:
i Water
ii Ai
ii. Air
iii. Land and wildlife
iv. Waste
v. Coastal zones and cultural heritage
vi. The global environment.
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For each of these categories there are separate analysis and cost For
each of these categories there are separate analysis and cost
estimates for:
i. health/quality of life
ii. natural resources.
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Cost of Environmental Degradation: Case of Lebanon
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Annual Cost of Degradation by Environmental Category Mean Estimate ( percent GDP )
1.2
1.1
1
1
0.8
0.68
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
0
0
0
Water
Air
Coastal
Land
0
0.05
Waste
Cost of Environmental Degradation: Case of Lebanon
Annual Cost of Environmental Degradation By Economic Category
Mean e
estimate ( percent GD
DP )
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2.5
2
2.1
1.5
1.3
1
0.5
0
0
0
Health/Quality
of Life
Natural
resources
Annual Cost of Environmental Degradation, mean Estimate,2000
US$ Millions per
year
Air
W t
Water
Land and wildlife
Coastal Zones and
cultural Heritage
Waste
170
175
100
110
1.02
1 07
1.07
0.6
0.68
10
0.05
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Sub-Total
b T t l
565
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3.4
4
Global
environment
90
0.5
Total
655
3.9
Thank you
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Percent of GDP