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JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 1 www.jmap.org BINOMIAL PROBABILITY MATH B APPEARANCES: 080334b 6-pointer 080128b, 010229b, 060331b, 010428b, 080430b, 060529b, 080630b, 010731b 4-pointer 060122b, 060223b, 010524b, 080522b, 010625b, 060625b 2-pointer 080201b, 010302b, 060402b multiple choice REGENTS QUESTIONS SOLUTIONS 010302b (1) 1 The probability that Kyla will score above a 90 on 4 a mathematics test is . 5 What is the probability that she will score above a 90 on three of the four tests this quarter? 4 1 3 4 1 (1) 4 C3 ( ) 3 ( )1 (3) ( ) 3 ( )1 5 5 4 5 5 4 1 1 3 3 4 1 (2) 4 C3 ( ) ( ) (4) ( )1 ( ) 3 5 5 4 5 5 2 4 (1) 060402b The Hiking Club plans to go camping in a State park where the probability of rain on any given day is 0.7. Which expression can be used to find the probability that it will rain on exactly three of the seven days they are there? 3 4 (1) (3) 7 C3 ( 0.7) ( 0.3) C3 ( 0.7) 3 (0.7) 4 3 4 (2) 7 C3 ( 0.3) ( 0.7) 4 1 C3 ( ) 3 ( )1 5 5 7 C3 ( 0.7) 3 (0.3) 4 4 4 4 3 C3 ( 0.4) ( 0.3) (4) 3 080201b Which fraction represents the probability of obtaining exactly eight (1) 1 8 1 2 45 10 C8 ( ) ( ) = 2 2 1024 JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 2 www.jmap.org heads in ten fair coin? 45 (1) (3) 1,024 64 (2) (4) 1,024 4 tosses of a 90 1,024 180 1,024 060122b At a certain intersection, the light for eastbound traffic is red for 15 seconds, yellow for 5 seconds, and green for 30 seconds. Find, to the nearest tenth, the probability that out of the next eight eastbound cars that arrive randomly at the light, exactly three will be stopped by a red light. 5 The probability If the probability that it will rain on any given day this week is 60%, find the probability it will rain exactly 3 out of 7 days this week. 7 080522b red light is P(3 stopped) = 8 3 7 25412184 C3 ( ) 3 ( ) 5 = ≈ .3 10 10 100000000 060223b 010524b a 15 3 = . 15 + 5 + 30 10 3 After studying a couple’s family history, a doctor determines that the probability of any child born to this couple having a gene for disease X is 1 out of 4. If the couple has three children, what is the probability that exactly two of the children have the gene for disease X? 6 of 7 1 3 9 C 2 ( ) 2 ( )1 = 4 4 64 3 2 15120 C3 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 = 5 5 78125 Since there are two even-numbered channels, the probability of selecting an JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 3 www.jmap.org The Coolidge family's favorite 2 1 = . television channels are 3, 6, 7, even number is 6 3 10, 11, and 13. If the Coolidge family selects a favorite channel 1 3 2 2 40 P(3 evens) = 5 C 3 ( ) ( ) = at random to view each night, 3 3 243 what is the probability that they choose exactly three evennumbered channels in five nights? Express your answer as a fraction or as a decimal rounded to four decimal places. 8 010625b 6 During a recent survey, students at Franconia College were asked if they drink coffee in the morning. The results showed that two-thirds of the students drink coffee in the morning and the remainder do not. What is the probability that of six students selected at random, exactly two of them drink coffee in the morning? Express your answer as a fraction or as a decimal rounded to four decimal places. 9 060625b Ginger and Mary Anne are planning a vacation trip to the island of Capri, where the probability of rain on any day is 0.3. What is the probability that during their five days on the island, they have no rain on exactly three of the five days? 1 0 As 080128b 2 1 20 C2 ( ) 2 ( ) 4 = 3 3 243 Note the problem gives you the value of q, instead of p. 5 7 3 3087 C3 ( ) 3 ( ) 2 = 10 10 10000 The areas of the circles are 81π and 9π. Therefore the probability of hitting the shown in the accompanying diagram, a bull’s-eye is 9π = 1 . 81π 9 circular target with a radius of 9 inches has a bull’s-eye that has a 1 4 8 1 40 P(4 hits) = 5 C 4 ( ) ( ) = radius of 3 inches. If 9 9 59049 five arrows randomly hit 1 5 8 0 1 the target, what is the P(5 hits) = 5 C 5 ( ) ( ) = probability that at least 9 9 59049 four hit the bull’s-eye? JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 4 www.jmap.org Add these two fractions to calculate the probability of at least four hits: 1 1 Team 010229b 1 2 On 060331b 1 3 Tim 080430b 1 4 The 060529b 41 59049 1 2 40 3 3 243 1 4 2 1 10 P(4 wins) = 5 C 4 ( ) ( ) = 3 3 243 1 5 2 0 1 P(5 wins) = 5 C 5 ( ) ( ) = 3 3 243 3 2 P(3 wins) = 5 C 3 ( ) ( ) = A and team B are playing in a league. They will play each other five times. If the probability that team A wins a game is 1 , what is the 3 Add these three fractions to calculate the probability that team A 51 will win at least three of probability of at least three wins: 243 the five games? 2 3 1344 5 5 78125 2 7 3 0 128 P(7 dinners) = 7 C 7 ( ) ( ) = 5 5 78125 6 1 P(6 dinners) = 7 C 6 ( ) ( ) = any given day, the probability that the entire Watson family eats 2 dinner together is . Add these two fractions to calculate the 5 Find the probability 1472 that, during any 7-day probability of at least six dinners: 78125 period, the Watsons eat dinner together at least six times. 1 4 9 1 45 ) ( ) = 10 10 100000 1 5 9 0 1 P(5 homers) = 5 C 5 ( ) ( ) = 10 10 100000 P(4 homers) = 5 C 4 ( Parker, a star baseball player, hits one home run for every ten times he is at bat. If Parker goes to bat five Add these two fractions to calculate the times during tonight’s game, what is the probability of at least four homers: 46 probability that he will 100000 hit at least four home runs? probability that a planted 3 4 1 4 5 2 P(5 sprouts) = 7 C 5 ( ) ( ) = 5103 16384 JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 5 www.jmap.org 3 3 6 1 1 5103 . If P(6 sprouts) = 7 C 6 ( ) ( ) = 4 4 4 16384 Peyton plants seven seeds from a slice 3 7 1 0 2187 P(7 sprouts) = 7 C 7 ( ) ( ) = of watermelon, find, to the nearest ten 4 4 16384 thousandth, the probability that at least five will sprout. Add these three fractions to calculate the watermelon seed will sprout is probability of at least five sprouts: 12393 ≈ .7564 16384 1 080630b 5 On mornings when school is in 1 2 40 3 3 243 1 4 2 1 10 P(4 times late) = 5 C 4 ( ) ( ) = 3 3 243 1 5 2 0 1 P(5 times late) = 5 C 5 ( ) ( ) = 3 3 243 3 2 P(3 times late) = 5 C 3 ( ) ( ) = session in January, Sara notices that her school bus is late onethird of the time. What is the probability that during a 5-day school week in January her bus will be late at least three times? Add these three fractions to calculate the probability the bus will be late at least three times: 1 6 A 010428b board game has a spinner on a circle that has five equal sectors, numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. If a player has four spins, find the probability that the player spins an even number no more than two times on those four spins. 51 243 Since there are two even numbers, the probability of spinning an even number is 2 . 5 2 3 5 5 2 1 3 3 P(1 evens) = 4 C1 ( ) ( ) = 5 5 2 2 3 2 P(2 evens) = 4 C 2 ( ) ( ) = 5 5 0 4 P(0 evens) = 4 C 0 ( ) ( ) = 81 625 216 625 216 625 Add these three fractions to calculate the probability of no more than two even numbers: 1 010731b 7 Dr. Glendon, the school physician 513 625 4 1 P(4 students) = 5 C4 (.39) (.61) ≈ .071 5 0 P(5 students) = 5 C5 (.39) (.61) ≈ .009 in charge of giving sports physicals, has compiled his Add to calculate the probability of at information and has determined least four students: .08 JMAP Solutions – PROBABILITY: Binomial Probability Page 6 www.jmap.org that the probability a student will be on a team is 0.39. Yesterday, Dr. Glendon examined five students chosen at random. Find, to the nearest hundredth, the probability that at least four of the five students will be on a team. Find, to the nearest hundredth, the probability that exactly one of the five students will not be on a team. 1 8 When 080334b 1 4 P(1 student) = 5 C1 (.61) (.39) ≈ .07 6 3 4 1 3456 ) ( ) = 10 10 10000 6 4 4 0 1296 P(4 strikes) = 4 C 4 ( ) ( ) = 10 10 10000 P(3 strikes) = 4 C 3 ( Joe bowls, he can get a strike (knock down all the pins) 60% of the time. How many times more likely is it for Joe to Add these two fractions to calculate the bowl at least three strikes out of four tries as it probability of at least three strikes: 4752 . 10000 is for him to bowl zero strikes out of four tries? Round your answer 6 0 4 4 256 P(0 strikes) = 4 C 0 ( ) ( ) = to the nearest whole number. 10 10 10000 4752 10000 = 18.5625 ≈ 19 256 10000