Download A History of Presidential Elections 1789-2016

A History of Presidential Elections
1789-2016
A Rough Course Schedule
!  Lecture 1: 1789-1812
!  Lecture 2: 1812-1840
!  Lecture 3: 1840-1865
!  Lecture 4: 1865-1901
!  Lecture 5: 1901-1932
!  Lecture 6: 1932-1945
!  Lecture 7: 1945-1968
!  Lecture 8: 1968-today
The Election of 1840
The Whigs Get it Right
1836 and 1840
1840: Democrat Electoral Collapse
Consequences of the First Great Depression, 1837-
The First Whig President
Harrison’s Long Inaugural Address
Death of Harrison
Map of Washington: home (A) of William Henry Harrison,
above, its water supply (B), and a field of “night soil” (C) that
could have harbored deadly bacteria
President John Tyler
Explosion of the Peacemaker, USS Princeton, February
28, 1844: Six killed, including Navy Secretary Thomas
Gilmer, and Secretary of State Abel Upshur
Secretary of State
John C. Calhoun’s Ultimate Revenge
Election of 1844
!  First dark horse nomination (Polk)
!  First surprise outcome (Polk over
more prominent Henry Clay)
!  Clay defeated for third time
!  Spoiler candidate (Liberty Party)
determines election
!  Outcome leads to war with Mexico in
1846
Van Buren vs. Clay
Democratic National Convention, 1844
!  Needed 177 delegates (two-thirds)
!  Van Buren led with 146 on first
ballot (55 percent) but still 31 short
of 66 percent needed
!  Lewis Cass peaked at 123 on the 7th
ballot
!  Polk did not have a single delegate
until the 8th ballot
!  He won on the 8th
Balloting for President
!  Ballot:
!  Van Buren:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
146 127 121 111 103 101 99 104
!  Lewis Cass:
83
94 92 105 107 116 123 114 29
!  R. Johnson:
24
33 38
!  Buchanan:
4
9
11
!  Calhoun:
6
1
2
!  Polk:
32 29
23
21
17 26
25
22
44 231 266
“Who is James Knox Polk?”
First Use of Telegraph
Polk Won with 170 Electoral Votes; 138 needed to Win
Clay Lost NY (36 EV) by only 5,000 votes
Birney Took 15,000 votes in NY
Elections of 1840, 1844
1844: Dems took NY, PA
Henry Clay
“I would rather be right than be president”
James K. Polk
1848: Cleaving of the Union
!  Dramatic three-way contest
!  Democrats fracture; Whigs triumph for
only second time
!  Free-soil crusade anticipates 1860 splits
!  Another spoiler candidate influences
outcome
!  United States deeply divided by the
presence of slavery in the newly
acquired territories
1848 Whig National Convention
(“I wish I could slay a Mexican,” Henry Clay said in 1848, when
the names on the ballot were mainly those of generals who had
fought in the Mexican-American War.)
1
2
3
4
!  Zachery Taylor: 111 118 133 171
!  Henry Clay:
97
86
74
32
!  Winfield Scott:
43
49
54
63
!  Daniel Webster:
22
22
17
14
Gen. Zachery Taylor
“Old Rough and Ready”
Free Soil Ticket, 1848
Van Buren Appeared on Four
National Ballots
!  Adams: 1789, 1792, 1796, 1800
!  Van Buren: 1832, 1836, 1840, 1848
!  FDR: 1920, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944
!  Nixon: 1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, 1972
!  G.H.W. Bush: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992
The Return of Matty Van
While Cass and Taylor Discuss the Niceties,
The Red Fox Steals the Christmas Turkey
The Election of 1848: Several of Van Buren’s
strongest states ended up going to Taylor
Free Soil Vote 1848
Strongest in NY, WI, MA, VT, NH, ME
Free Soil Vote 1852
Republican Vote 1856
Republican Vote 1860
The Demise of “Old Rough and Ready”
Death by Cherries and Cream?
!  Recovery overwhelmed by doctors
!  Treated him with ipecac, opium,
quinine (40 grains a dose!)
!  Bled and blistered him
!  Exhumation in the 1990s
Compromise of 1850
Compromise of 1850
Democratic National Convention
of 1852 (49 Ballots)
!  Needed 200 delegates (two-thirds)
!  Cass led with 116 on first ballot and reached a
peak of 131 on the 35th ballot
!  James Buchanan had 93 delegates on the first
ballot and peaked at 104 on the 23rd ballot
!  Stephen A. Douglas reached 92 on the 31st
ballot
!  William L. Marcy peaked with 98 on the 46th
ballot
!  Pierce didn’t obtain a single delegate until the
35th ballot; still had only 55 by the 48th ballot
Franklin Pierce
The First of the Doughfaces
Gen. Winfield Scott
“Old Fuss and Feathers”
1852: Whigs in Jeopardy
Democrats won every state except VT, TN, KY, MA
The Decline of the Whig Party
1848
1852
Kansas-Nebraska Act, 1854
1856: The Republicans
The Third Party System
Democratic Party, 1828-
Republican Party, 1854-
!  The South
!  The North
!  Slave Owners
!  Abolitionists
!  Rural Voters
!  Urban Voters
!  Decentralized Gov.
!  Strong Central Gov.
!  Agriculture
!  Manufacturing
!  States’ Rights
!  Strong Federal Union
!  Northern Immigrants
!  White Protestants
Democratic National Convention
of 1856
!  President Pierce peaks with 122.5 on
first ballot; has zero by the 16th
!  (first elected president to be denied
re-nomination by his party)
!  Stephen A. Douglas peaked with 122
on the 16th ballot
!  Buchanan led throughout with 135.5
on the first ballot and 296 by the
17th, and last
1856 Democratic Convention First Ballot
James Buchanan
Franklin Pierce
Stephen A. Douglass
Lewis Cass
135
122
33
5
With each ballot, Douglas gained at
Pierce’s expense (pictured: 14th ballot)
15th Ballot
Pierce’s delegates shifted to Douglas to block Buchanan
James Buchanan
168
Franklin Pierce
3
Stephen A. Douglass
118
Douglas withdrew when it became clear Buchanan had
the support of the majority of those at the convention,
also fearing that his continued participation might lead to
divisions within the party that could endanger its chances
in the general election.
1856: The Republican Challenge
149 Needed to Win; GOP with 114; 35 EV Short;
Shift of PA and One Other State (IN? IL?)
The Republican Challenge in 1860
Fillmore’s Strongest States:
MD, LA, TN, KY, MO, NC, FL, DE
Republican Vote 1856
Strongest (in order) in VT, MA, ME, RI, MI, WI,
NH, CT, IA, OH, NY,
Dred Scott Decision, 1857
Scott had been taken by his master from a Slave State
(Missouri) to a Free State (Illinois)
Chief Justice Taney’s Ruling
!  Chief Justice Roger B. Taney ruled
that the “original intent” of the
Framers of the Constitution meant:
!  Blacks had no rights
!  They could not become citizens
!  Congress could not exclude slavery
from any territory
The Lincoln-Douglas Debates, 1858
!  Freeport Doctrine:
!  Citizens could restrict slavery
through legislation
!  Helped Douglas in Illinois;
wounded him in the South
!  Popular Sovereignty
!  Lincoln loses in 1858
!  But positions himself for 1860
The Election of 1860
!  First Republican elected
with only 40% of popular
vote
!  Union fractures after
dramatic four-way contest
featuring spoiler candidates,
igniting four-year Civil War
!  Emergence of Lincoln
!  Partial realignment election
Constitutional Union Party Convention, May 9,
1860; John Bell, 64; Edward Everett, 66
Someone inquiring of a delegate returning from Baltimore:
QUESTIONER: “Why didn't you nominate Choate?”
DELEGATE: “Choate? Why, he is dead!”
[Rufus Choate, of MA, Whig senator, had died in July 1859]
Q: “Oh, I know it, but he has not been dead a very long time!”
The Republican Nominating Contest
Chicago, May 16-18
Abraham Lincoln of Illinois
William H. Seward of New York
1860 GOP Convention, Chicago
First Ballot
!  Seward:
173
!  Lincoln:
102
!  Cameron:
50
!  Chase:
49
!  Bates:
48
First Ballot
1860 GOP Convention, Chicago
Second Ballot
!  Seward:
173
184
!  Lincoln: 102
181
!  Cameron: 50
2
!  Chase:
49
42
!  Bates:
48
35
Second Ballot
1860 GOP Convention, Chicago
Third Ballot
!  Seward:
173
184
180
!  Lincoln: 102
181
231
!  Cameron: 50
2
0
!  Chase:
49
42
24
!  Bates:
48
35
22
Third Ballot
1860 GOP Convention, Chicago
Third Ballot, Revised
!  Seward:
173
184
180
111
!  Lincoln: 102
181
231
349
!  Cameron: 50
2
0
0
!  Chase:
49
42
24
2
!  Bates:
48
35
22
0
Third Ballot (Revised)
1860 Democratic National Convention(s);
April 23 to May 3 (Charleston); and June 18 (Baltimore)
(Pictured: First Ballot)
!  Douglas needed 202 for two-
thirds
!  He led from the very
beginning with 145 of 253, or
58 percent
!  He held 151 delegates, or 60
percent, from the 24th to 57th
ballots
!  After 57 inconclusive ballots at
Charleston, Douglas prevailed
after two extra ballots at
Baltimore with 181 votes
Double-entendre of the use of the word stump, playing on its use for both
campaigning and wooden leg. In the center Douglas, with wooden leg, speaks
with John Bell (far left) and Virginia governor Henry Wise. Douglas:
“Gentlemen, I'm going to see my mother, and solicit a little help, for in running
after a nomination, I fell over a big lump of Breckenridge, and have been very
lame ever since.”
Had Lincoln not won New York the election would have
been thrown into the House. Lincoln Won New York by
50,000 votes out of nearly 700,000 cast.
NY Republican Governor Edwin Morgan, also national
chair of the GOP, secured victory
Secession, 1861
!  Election of Republican president
unacceptable to many
Southerners
!  Even before Lincoln took the oath
of office on March 4, 1861, seven
southern states had seceded from
the Union
!  On April 12, 1861, the Civil War
began with the bombardment of
Fort Sumter in South Carolina
1862 Midterm Elections
Image: Democrats took governorship in NY
!  Republicans lost 22 seats in Congress
!  Democrats picked up 28
!  Republicans losses due to disfavor
with the Administration over its
failure to deliver an end to the war
Lincoln Embattled, 1864
Lincoln Finds a General
1864: With Grant bogged down outside Petersburg and
Sherman stalled on his march to Atlanta, Lincoln
believed he would be “beaten … and unless some great
change takes place, badly beaten.”
1864 Republican Nomination
No President Had Been Re-nominated
Since Van Buren in 1840
Lincoln and Johnson
The “National Union Party Ticket” 1864