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A History of Presidential Elections 1789-2016 A Rough Course Schedule ! Lecture 1: 1789-1812 ! Lecture 2: 1812-1840 ! Lecture 3: 1840-1865 ! Lecture 4: 1865-1901 ! Lecture 5: 1901-1932 ! Lecture 6: 1932-1945 ! Lecture 7: 1945-1968 ! Lecture 8: 1968-today The Election of 1840 The Whigs Get it Right 1836 and 1840 1840: Democrat Electoral Collapse Consequences of the First Great Depression, 1837- The First Whig President Harrison’s Long Inaugural Address Death of Harrison Map of Washington: home (A) of William Henry Harrison, above, its water supply (B), and a field of “night soil” (C) that could have harbored deadly bacteria President John Tyler Explosion of the Peacemaker, USS Princeton, February 28, 1844: Six killed, including Navy Secretary Thomas Gilmer, and Secretary of State Abel Upshur Secretary of State John C. Calhoun’s Ultimate Revenge Election of 1844 ! First dark horse nomination (Polk) ! First surprise outcome (Polk over more prominent Henry Clay) ! Clay defeated for third time ! Spoiler candidate (Liberty Party) determines election ! Outcome leads to war with Mexico in 1846 Van Buren vs. Clay Democratic National Convention, 1844 ! Needed 177 delegates (two-thirds) ! Van Buren led with 146 on first ballot (55 percent) but still 31 short of 66 percent needed ! Lewis Cass peaked at 123 on the 7th ballot ! Polk did not have a single delegate until the 8th ballot ! He won on the 8th Balloting for President ! Ballot: ! Van Buren: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 146 127 121 111 103 101 99 104 ! Lewis Cass: 83 94 92 105 107 116 123 114 29 ! R. Johnson: 24 33 38 ! Buchanan: 4 9 11 ! Calhoun: 6 1 2 ! Polk: 32 29 23 21 17 26 25 22 44 231 266 “Who is James Knox Polk?” First Use of Telegraph Polk Won with 170 Electoral Votes; 138 needed to Win Clay Lost NY (36 EV) by only 5,000 votes Birney Took 15,000 votes in NY Elections of 1840, 1844 1844: Dems took NY, PA Henry Clay “I would rather be right than be president” James K. Polk 1848: Cleaving of the Union ! Dramatic three-way contest ! Democrats fracture; Whigs triumph for only second time ! Free-soil crusade anticipates 1860 splits ! Another spoiler candidate influences outcome ! United States deeply divided by the presence of slavery in the newly acquired territories 1848 Whig National Convention (“I wish I could slay a Mexican,” Henry Clay said in 1848, when the names on the ballot were mainly those of generals who had fought in the Mexican-American War.) 1 2 3 4 ! Zachery Taylor: 111 118 133 171 ! Henry Clay: 97 86 74 32 ! Winfield Scott: 43 49 54 63 ! Daniel Webster: 22 22 17 14 Gen. Zachery Taylor “Old Rough and Ready” Free Soil Ticket, 1848 Van Buren Appeared on Four National Ballots ! Adams: 1789, 1792, 1796, 1800 ! Van Buren: 1832, 1836, 1840, 1848 ! FDR: 1920, 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944 ! Nixon: 1952, 1956, 1960, 1968, 1972 ! G.H.W. Bush: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992 The Return of Matty Van While Cass and Taylor Discuss the Niceties, The Red Fox Steals the Christmas Turkey The Election of 1848: Several of Van Buren’s strongest states ended up going to Taylor Free Soil Vote 1848 Strongest in NY, WI, MA, VT, NH, ME Free Soil Vote 1852 Republican Vote 1856 Republican Vote 1860 The Demise of “Old Rough and Ready” Death by Cherries and Cream? ! Recovery overwhelmed by doctors ! Treated him with ipecac, opium, quinine (40 grains a dose!) ! Bled and blistered him ! Exhumation in the 1990s Compromise of 1850 Compromise of 1850 Democratic National Convention of 1852 (49 Ballots) ! Needed 200 delegates (two-thirds) ! Cass led with 116 on first ballot and reached a peak of 131 on the 35th ballot ! James Buchanan had 93 delegates on the first ballot and peaked at 104 on the 23rd ballot ! Stephen A. Douglas reached 92 on the 31st ballot ! William L. Marcy peaked with 98 on the 46th ballot ! Pierce didn’t obtain a single delegate until the 35th ballot; still had only 55 by the 48th ballot Franklin Pierce The First of the Doughfaces Gen. Winfield Scott “Old Fuss and Feathers” 1852: Whigs in Jeopardy Democrats won every state except VT, TN, KY, MA The Decline of the Whig Party 1848 1852 Kansas-Nebraska Act, 1854 1856: The Republicans The Third Party System Democratic Party, 1828- Republican Party, 1854- ! The South ! The North ! Slave Owners ! Abolitionists ! Rural Voters ! Urban Voters ! Decentralized Gov. ! Strong Central Gov. ! Agriculture ! Manufacturing ! States’ Rights ! Strong Federal Union ! Northern Immigrants ! White Protestants Democratic National Convention of 1856 ! President Pierce peaks with 122.5 on first ballot; has zero by the 16th ! (first elected president to be denied re-nomination by his party) ! Stephen A. Douglas peaked with 122 on the 16th ballot ! Buchanan led throughout with 135.5 on the first ballot and 296 by the 17th, and last 1856 Democratic Convention First Ballot James Buchanan Franklin Pierce Stephen A. Douglass Lewis Cass 135 122 33 5 With each ballot, Douglas gained at Pierce’s expense (pictured: 14th ballot) 15th Ballot Pierce’s delegates shifted to Douglas to block Buchanan James Buchanan 168 Franklin Pierce 3 Stephen A. Douglass 118 Douglas withdrew when it became clear Buchanan had the support of the majority of those at the convention, also fearing that his continued participation might lead to divisions within the party that could endanger its chances in the general election. 1856: The Republican Challenge 149 Needed to Win; GOP with 114; 35 EV Short; Shift of PA and One Other State (IN? IL?) The Republican Challenge in 1860 Fillmore’s Strongest States: MD, LA, TN, KY, MO, NC, FL, DE Republican Vote 1856 Strongest (in order) in VT, MA, ME, RI, MI, WI, NH, CT, IA, OH, NY, Dred Scott Decision, 1857 Scott had been taken by his master from a Slave State (Missouri) to a Free State (Illinois) Chief Justice Taney’s Ruling ! Chief Justice Roger B. Taney ruled that the “original intent” of the Framers of the Constitution meant: ! Blacks had no rights ! They could not become citizens ! Congress could not exclude slavery from any territory The Lincoln-Douglas Debates, 1858 ! Freeport Doctrine: ! Citizens could restrict slavery through legislation ! Helped Douglas in Illinois; wounded him in the South ! Popular Sovereignty ! Lincoln loses in 1858 ! But positions himself for 1860 The Election of 1860 ! First Republican elected with only 40% of popular vote ! Union fractures after dramatic four-way contest featuring spoiler candidates, igniting four-year Civil War ! Emergence of Lincoln ! Partial realignment election Constitutional Union Party Convention, May 9, 1860; John Bell, 64; Edward Everett, 66 Someone inquiring of a delegate returning from Baltimore: QUESTIONER: “Why didn't you nominate Choate?” DELEGATE: “Choate? Why, he is dead!” [Rufus Choate, of MA, Whig senator, had died in July 1859] Q: “Oh, I know it, but he has not been dead a very long time!” The Republican Nominating Contest Chicago, May 16-18 Abraham Lincoln of Illinois William H. Seward of New York 1860 GOP Convention, Chicago First Ballot ! Seward: 173 ! Lincoln: 102 ! Cameron: 50 ! Chase: 49 ! Bates: 48 First Ballot 1860 GOP Convention, Chicago Second Ballot ! Seward: 173 184 ! Lincoln: 102 181 ! Cameron: 50 2 ! Chase: 49 42 ! Bates: 48 35 Second Ballot 1860 GOP Convention, Chicago Third Ballot ! Seward: 173 184 180 ! Lincoln: 102 181 231 ! Cameron: 50 2 0 ! Chase: 49 42 24 ! Bates: 48 35 22 Third Ballot 1860 GOP Convention, Chicago Third Ballot, Revised ! Seward: 173 184 180 111 ! Lincoln: 102 181 231 349 ! Cameron: 50 2 0 0 ! Chase: 49 42 24 2 ! Bates: 48 35 22 0 Third Ballot (Revised) 1860 Democratic National Convention(s); April 23 to May 3 (Charleston); and June 18 (Baltimore) (Pictured: First Ballot) ! Douglas needed 202 for two- thirds ! He led from the very beginning with 145 of 253, or 58 percent ! He held 151 delegates, or 60 percent, from the 24th to 57th ballots ! After 57 inconclusive ballots at Charleston, Douglas prevailed after two extra ballots at Baltimore with 181 votes Double-entendre of the use of the word stump, playing on its use for both campaigning and wooden leg. In the center Douglas, with wooden leg, speaks with John Bell (far left) and Virginia governor Henry Wise. Douglas: “Gentlemen, I'm going to see my mother, and solicit a little help, for in running after a nomination, I fell over a big lump of Breckenridge, and have been very lame ever since.” Had Lincoln not won New York the election would have been thrown into the House. Lincoln Won New York by 50,000 votes out of nearly 700,000 cast. NY Republican Governor Edwin Morgan, also national chair of the GOP, secured victory Secession, 1861 ! Election of Republican president unacceptable to many Southerners ! Even before Lincoln took the oath of office on March 4, 1861, seven southern states had seceded from the Union ! On April 12, 1861, the Civil War began with the bombardment of Fort Sumter in South Carolina 1862 Midterm Elections Image: Democrats took governorship in NY ! Republicans lost 22 seats in Congress ! Democrats picked up 28 ! Republicans losses due to disfavor with the Administration over its failure to deliver an end to the war Lincoln Embattled, 1864 Lincoln Finds a General 1864: With Grant bogged down outside Petersburg and Sherman stalled on his march to Atlanta, Lincoln believed he would be “beaten … and unless some great change takes place, badly beaten.” 1864 Republican Nomination No President Had Been Re-nominated Since Van Buren in 1840 Lincoln and Johnson The “National Union Party Ticket” 1864