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Intelligence Factsheet: Brazil Updated: August 2015 Purpose: The purpose of this document is to provide an update on key statistics on international students in this market. It draws on several datasets, specifically the Export Education Levy figures (for full fee-paying numbers) and the Single Data Return (SDR) (for a comprehensive dataset of international students). Developed by Education New Zealand For more information please contact: [email protected] Intelligence Key headline figures Student numbers: 2,728 Brazilian international students studied in New Zealand in 2014, a 17% increase (395 students) on 2013 Total number of tertiary mobile students: 32,0511 Population: 202 million (2014) GDP: USD $2,350 billion (2014), NZD $3,590 billion (2014) GDP per capita: USD $11,634 (2014), NZD $17,795 (2014) Socio-economic and business context2 Brazil’s economy has become much more diversified in recent years. The country remains dependent on exports of iron ore, soy, other farm products and raw materials but less so than in the past. The economy grew briskly in 2010 when Brazil recorded its fastest rate of annual growth in 25 years (7.6%). The stellar performance was propelled by a big increase in credit and strong domestic demand. However, growth has stalled in recent years. Real growth in GDP during 2014 was only 0.1%. Industrial output and investment demand were affected disproportionately. Most of the country’s long-term gains can be attributed to orthodox macroeconomic policies such as a floating exchange rate, tight fiscal restraints and inflation targeting. Rapid growth in India and China altered the world economy in ways that directly benefitted commodity exporters such as Brazil. The population reached 200 million in 2013, an increase of 78 million since 1980. The median age was 30.3 years in 2013, 10 years greater than in 1980. Fertility has fallen steadily for more than two decades but it is still only slightly below the replacement level. The number of those over 65 years tripled in 1980-2013, reaching 15.1 million by the end of that period. Demographers expect the ageing process to accelerate over the next two decades, putting pressure on the country’s pension system. 1 2 UNESCO - ISCED levels 5 and 6 Euromonitor 2 Intelligence Full year student numbers 2006-2014 [Source: Levy full fee-paying stats] 2,691 international Brazilian students studied in New Zealand in 2014, an increase of 18% (403) on 2013. Student numbers from Brazil declined by 26% (-821) between 2010 and 2013. The Export Education Levy data varies from ENZ data due to differences in methodology. See the glossary on page 11 for more information. 3 Intelligence [Source: ENZ definition] The university sector experienced strong growth in 2014, up 232% (139), the ITP sector increased enrolments by 161% (50), and the PTE sector grew by 10% (164). The growth in the PTE sector was driven by the growth in the ESL sector (English as a Second Language), up 20% (220) compared to 2013. Brazil was the sixth largest source market for secondary school students and the largest from Latin America. [Source: ENZ definition] 4 Intelligence Tertiary sector trends [Source: ENZ definition] Enrolments in level 1-3 certificates experienced strong growth, up 146% (121) in 2014. Level 7 bachelors’ degrees grew by 355% (110), and enrolments in level 10 doctoral degrees increased by 29% (7). Brazil: proportion of tertiary enrolments by level Level 1-3 Certificates Level 4 Certificates Level 5-7 Diplomas Level 7 Bachelors’ degrees Level 7 Graduate certs/dips Level 8 Honours/postgrad certs Level 9 Masters’ degrees Level 10 Doctoral degrees 2014 37% 14% 14% 26% 1% 1% 1% 6% [Source: ENZ definition] In 2014, 37% of enrolments from tertiary level Brazilian students were in level 1-3 certificates, and 26% were in level 7 bachelors’ degrees. Brazil: proportion of tertiary enrolments Below Undergrad (L1-7) Undergrad (L7) Postgrad (L7+) 2010 73% 11% 16% 2011 79% 8% 13% 2012 83% 7% 10% 2013 82% 8% 10% 2014 65% 26% 9% [Source: ENZ definition] 5 Intelligence 65% of tertiary Brazilian students were enrolled at below the undergraduate level in 2014. Brazil: proportion of tertiary 2014 enrolments by field of study Agriculture, Environmental and Related Studies Architecture and Building Creative Arts Education Engineering and Related Technologies Food, Hospitality and Personal Services Health Information Technology Management and Commerce Mixed Field Programmes Natural and Physical Sciences Society and Culture 5% 1% 5% 1% 7% 2% 2% 6% 12% 4% 14% 40% [Source: ENZ definition] The most popular fields of study in 2014 were: society and culture (40%), management and commerce (12%), and natural and physical sciences (14%). Regional distribution [Source: ENZ definition] 66% of all Brazilian students studied in the Auckland region in 2014, 8% in the Otago region, and 8% in the Canterbury region. 6 Intelligence Student Visa Numbers For the latest information on international student trends, read our Student Visa Dashboards. The dashboards are available monthly and contain detailed tables and graphs on the numbers of first time and total international student visas. They can be found on the Education New Zealand website under http://enz.govt.nz/marketsresearch/latest-research. Competitor analysis United States [Source: IIE- Open Doors] In 2014 there were 13,286 Brazilian students studying in the United States, up 22% (2,418) from 2013. Brazil is the 10th largest source country for the United States. The majority of students are at the undergraduate level (38%) followed by the graduate level (24%). The most popular fields of study in 2014 were: business/management (21%), engineering (11%), fine/applied arts (7%), and social sciences (8%). Brazilian students studying in the United States contributed USD $333 million (NZD $509 million) to the economy in 2014. 7 Intelligence Australia [Source: AIE] 3 Total student enrolments from Brazil reached 22,267 in 2014, an increase of 27% (4,666) compared to 2013. The non-award sector saw strong growth, up 231% (2,475) and the English language (ELICOS) sector increased by 17% (1,744). Brazil was the sixth largest source country for Australia in 2014. The sectoral mix of Brazilian students has fluctuated over the last 12 years. For example, the vocational education (VET) sector increased from 29% of enrolments in 2002 to 37% of enrolments in 2010, before dropping to 26% of enrolments in 2014. Likewise, the ELICOS sector increased from 54% of total enrolments in 2002 to 61% in 2008, before dropping to 53% in 2014. Interestingly, the non-award sector has increased significantly in the last three years, from 2% in 2012 to 16% in 2014. 3 Australian Government Department of Education and Training 8 Intelligence Canada [Source: CIC Facts and Figures] 4 In 2013 there were 7,757 Brazilian students studying in Canada, a 51% (2,631) increase in student numbers compared to 2012. Since 2008 student numbers from Brazil have increased by 224% (5,361). Brazil has been identified as one of Canada’s priority markets. 4 Citizenship and Immigration Canada 9 Intelligence Tertiary student mobility [Source: UNESCO] 5 32,051 tertiary level Brazilian students studied abroad in 2013. In 2013 the majority of Brazilian tertiary students chose to study in: the United States (32%), Portugal (15%), France (12%), Germany (8%), and the UK (5%). 5 UNESCO - students studying at ISCED levels 5 and 6 10 Intelligence Links https://aei.gov.au/research/International-Student-Data/Pages/InternationalStudentData2014.aspx Australian Government Department of Education and Training http://www.iie.org/en/Research-and-Publications/Open-Doors/Data Institute of International Education - Open Doors http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2013/temporary/4-2.asp CIC International students by top 50 countries of citizenship, 2004-2013 Glossary/ Definitions Export Education Levy figures vs. ENZ figures: the Export Education Levy data may vary from ENZ data due to the methodology used to count students. ENZ figures include full fee-paying, PhD, NZ Aid, exchange, and foreign postgraduate research students, but do not include students enrolled in non-formal courses. Government funded tertiary providers: this includes universities, ITPs, and government funded (SDR) PTEs. Levy full fee-paying statistics: includes all full-fee paying students (including non-formal courses), but does not include PhD, NZ Aid, exchange, and foreign postgraduate research students. Student Mobility numbers: UNESCO counts students studying at ISCED levels 5 and 6. This is equivalent to level 5-7 diplomas through to (and including) bachelors’ degrees. Sector trends: only includes government funded tertiary providers. Value of international students: Economic Value Added Interim 2014 valuation. 11