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Commentary: Constitutional Structure in Latin America Jonathan Hartlyn* Constitutional structure is important to study because we believe it is often linked with things we care about such as good governance, democracy, economic and social well-being, or justice, though we continue to debate when as cause, when as consequence, and when in a linked interactive fashion. And, it is also important to study changes in constitutional structure which are sometimes invoked by politicians, or social actors, or academics as key ways to solve fundamental challenges of their societies. Because this is potentially such a large topic authors typically narrow their focus. Authors can choose to focus on different types of changes in constitutional structures, such as by replacement, or by reform or amendment, our due to evolving judicial interpretation, or by evolution in informal rules or norms. Or, they may choose to focus also on incorporating related elements, such as electoral systems, viewed as central to the regulation of political life in the country, and then, within them, on different subsets of provisions within these changes. The article by José Antonio Cheibub, Zachary Elkins, and Tom Ginsburg focuses on changes in a set of provisions relating to executivelegislative balance of power in the context of constitutional replacements.1 These replacements are defined generally as a constitutional revision carried out without following the amending procedure of the existing constitution, or based on the classification in historical texts.2 In turn, Claudio Fuentes focuses specifically on constitutional change in Chile over a two decade period—a case specifically of reform, not replacement, of the 1980 authoritarian constitution of General Augusto Pinochet.3 Gabriel Negretto examines political and electoral reforms broadly, not distinguishing between replacements or reforms and incorporating electoral measures as well.4 And Andrea Pozas-Loyo and Julio Ríos-Figueroa, in turn, focus specifically on amendment and reform as opposed to replacement or broad * Senior Associate Dean for Social Sciences and International Programs, and Kennth J. Reckford Distinguished Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina. 1. José Antonio Cheibub, Zachary Elkins & Tom Ginsburg, Latin American Presidentialism in Comparative and Historical Perspective, 89 TEXAS L. REV. 1707 (2011). 2. See ZACHARY ELKINS, TOM GINSBURG & JAMES MELTON, THE ENDURANCE OF NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONS 55 & n.22 (2009). 3. Claudio A. Fuentes, A Matter of the Few: Dynamics of Constitutional Change in Chile, 1990–2010, 89 TEXAS L. REV. 1741 (2011). 4. Gabriel L. Negretto, Shifting Constitutional Designs in Latin America: A Two-Level Explanation, 89 TEXAS L. REV. 1777 (2011). 1978 Texas Law Review [Vol. 89:1977 scope constitutional change to demonstrate how the judiciary comprise a political actor which can protect their autonomy and influence.5 All four of these are excellent articles. Though the authors are looking at somewhat different things, as noted, they do talk to each other, as I will try to draw out below. Each of these articles also represents the tip of an iceberg for the author or authors: an introduction to a much broader agenda for further research on an important topic in which they are involved, and laying out that agenda could usefully be drawn out more explicitly in their conclusions. The division of labor agreed upon between me and John Ferejohn, the other panel commentator, is that I would focus primarily on the articles by Chelkinsburg (José Cheibub, Zach Elkins and Tom Ginsburg) and by Claudio Fuentes. Let me then turn to the article by Cheibub et al. on Latin American Presidentialism in Comparative and Historical Perspective. Scholars have been chipping away at the analytical wall put up between parliamentary and presidential systems for some time. With regard to the notion that parliamentary systems provide powerful incentives for coalitional behavior absent in presidential systems, José Cheibub, Cecilia Martínez Gallardo, my colleague in Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and others6 have been examining how coalition behavior and dynamics actually work in presidential systems and finding quite a bit of it. And now, José, Zach, and Tom are seeking to push the envelope further, saying that the presidential–parliamentary distinction really may not matter at all on certain critical dimensions, such as executive lawmaking authority—where region trumps democratic regime type. I do agree with them that Latin American presidents have had extraordinary legislative powers. Indeed, it has been a long-standing view that presidents in Latin American have had extensive powerful formal constitutional powers compared to other national executives, including particularly the U.S. President.7 It is valuable to see this now placed in a broader, updated comparative frame of reference, with a set of extensive, carefully chosen measures, and with an ability to track changes over time more systematically than before thanks to the impressive dataset of the Comparative Constitutions Project.8 The notion that in the end the differences they highlight may be as important or more important than the 5. Andrea Pozas-Loyo & Julio Ríos-Figueroa, The Politics of Amendment Processes: Supreme Court Influence in the Design of Judicial Councils, 89 TEXAS L. REV. 1807 (2011). 6. See JOSÉ ANTONIO CHEIBUB, PRESIDENTIALISM, PARLIAMENTARISM AND DEMOCRACY (2007); Octavio Amorim Neto, The Presidential Calculus: Executive Policy Making and Cabinet Formation in the Americas, 39 COMP. POL. STUD. 415 (2006); Cecilia Martínez Gallardo, Coalition Duration in Presidential Systems (Aug. 2008) (conference paper). 7. See Jonathan Hartlyn & Arturo Valenzuela, Democracy in Latin America since 1930, in VI CAMBRIDGE HISTORY OF LATIN AMERICA, PT. 2: LATIN AMERICA SINCE 1930: ECONOMY, SOCIETY AND POLITICS 99 (Leslie Bethell ed., 1994). 8. COMPARATIVE CONSTITUTIONS PROJECT, http://www.comparativeconstitutionsproject.org. 2011] Commentary: Constitutional Structure in Latin America 1979 presidential–parliamentary distinction certainly will attract attention. However, I have several questions and qualifications. First, there is the question of which features of presidentialism should one focus on. In their article, Cheibub et al. make the argument, with which I agree, that the U.S. and Latin American presidential systems are similar because the executive is popularly elected and does not need the confidence of the legislature to remain in office. However, there are other important similar features which are significant and could be addressed. One is the issue of the dual legitimacy of the executive and the legislature, since both are popularly elected. Another similarity—in contrast to parliamentary systems—is that as a result of this, in a presidential system the head of state and the head of government are the same individual. The article is also correct in noting that presidentialism has been very “sticky” in Latin America, in spite of frequent constitutional replacements in the region. One remarkable example is Colombia: when the Conservative and Liberal parties agreed to divide power equally between them in the consociational National Front arrangement, with perfect parity in congress, in the judiciary, in the cabinet, and in appointed governors and mayors, instead of a plural executive of some type, they opted instead for alternation in the presidency between the two parties. Yet, the article could cite and explore further Uruguay’s two unhappy experiences with a plural executive. One of the most dramatic findings in the article is with regard to the growth in formal executive powers in Latin America, particularly in terms of the ability to propose constitutional amendments and budget legislation, initiate ordinary legislation, and possess decree powers. A central issue which should be addressed is whether the formal legal changes represent for each country in which it took place an actual change in de facto presidential power, or whether—as greater respect for congruence between de facto and de jure powers grew—there was pressure to “constitutionalize” what was already in fact informal practice. Some past analyses of presidential power have sometimes mischaracterized actual presidential budgetary and decree powers through a strict reliance on formal texts.9 Over the extensive time period in which the article makes comparisons, from the nineteenth century into the twenty-first century, there may well also be a secular change toward greater respect for formal institutions and constitutional texts. Since the number of countries is relatively small, it might be worthwhile to do some comparative case study analysis. Another powerful point made in the article is that the story is more one of change and of greater convergence over time than of stability. However, if in fact the change is more to bring de jure norms in line with actual practice, then there is even more reason to believe that executive dominance 9. Cf. JONATHAN HARTLYN, THE STRUGGLE FOR DEMOCRATIC POLITICS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 218 (1999). 1980 Texas Law Review [Vol. 89:1977 started out strong in the region. At the same time, the story of convergence appears to emerge only after World War II, when the first quantifiable increase in similarity across constitutions in Latin America is found (see their Appendix D).10 Interpreting constitutional similarities in the period before 1870 is also difficult given the region’s dramatic history of instability and civil wars and the absence or just the beginnings of state formation. In addition, there was initial experimentation with various constitutional forms: Roberto Gargarella has discussed three constitutional models which were present in the nineteenth century, with the liberal and conservative models winning out over a more radical model by the end of that century.11 Finally, in terms of convergence over time, the article may be too unidimensional in what it focuses on, as it contrasts the U.S. President and Latin American presidents exclusively along the dimension of the balance of power between executives and legislatures. The article sometimes slips into arguing more broadly that what we are observing is an expansion of executive powers in the region, whereas the article is focused on only one (admittedly important) dimension, executive lawmaking powers. I was thinking this already, and then I read the article by Gabriel Negretto for this panel. In this article, he explicitly draws out the contrasting pattern between the president’s legislative powers in Latin America, in which he concurs with Cheibub et al. that these have grown over time in the region, and the president’s government powers, which he finds have not because of growing congressional power over cabinets, growth in political decentralization, and greater judicial independence from the executive, among other measures. Similarly, Negretto’s article emphasizes that contemporary trends in electoral rule changes have also not all favored executive power concentration. In addition to these features, in recent years many constitutions in the region have also introduced elements of direct democracy, including in some countries the popular recall of presidents. Thus, the article by Negretto and these other issues raise the question whether the convergence pattern identified by these authors holds across different dimensions of executive power, which could potentially impact their cross-regional comparisons as well. As these comments suggest, this is an important project, which raises significant issues, and I look forward to seeing more work from it. Claudio Fuentes is also embarking on an ambitious and important project on constitutional change in Chile, one that places the constitutional reform process in Chile in a broad theoretical and comparative context, while carrying out important empirical research including interviews with many of the central actors and the systematization of key data. Overall, I find the analysis in this article convincing, in terms of the central role of the executive in implementing constitutional reform in the 10. Cheibub, Elkins & Ginsburg, supra note 1, at 1736. 11. ROBERTO GARGARELLA, THE LEGAL FOUNDATIONS OF INEQUALITY (2010). 2011] Commentary: Constitutional Structure in Latin America 1981 post-Pinochet period and regarding why the minority political force on the right, which had effective veto power regarding constitutional reform, shifted over time to accept significant constitutional change, leading to the significant reform of 2005. However, in asking why Chile contrasts with other countries in terms of retaining such a strongly presidentialist constitution and enacting reform only (not replacement) in such a controlled fashion, I think he underplays one feature which sets Chile apart in the Latin American context: on measures of stateness and of rule of law (not necessarily democratic rule of law), Chile comes out higher than other countries in the region and has for some time. It is in this context that democratic actors carried out the transition from authoritarian rule fundamentally respecting the rules of the game and won, by defeating Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite. Although it is true that Chile and Peru are the only South American contemporary cases which did not replace their Constitution inherited from an authoritarian regime via a constituent assembly, as noted in the article’s Table 1,12 there are several country cases elsewhere in the region that fall in the same category, such as the Dominican Republic and several Central American countries. However, it remains the case that Peru and these other countries are similar in having much less historical experience than Chile with regard to constitutionalism, stateness, and democracy. Thus, Chile does seem distinct in terms of the cautious, subdued nature of the process driven by a respect for the rules of the game and a mindset of reform and gradualism. Given these features of the Chilean experience, it does not seem that surprising to me that an initial constituent assembly was not considered possible and that Chilean democratic leaders did not opt to seek a more radical route of constitutional replacement. As is evident in Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, this process typically follows a period of sustained economic crisis, and serial party and even party system delegitimation, and typically involves a highly popular president with a broad ambitious agenda for social as well as political change, initially blocked by an opposition Congress, pursuing a complex process of constituent assembly election, enactment of a new constitution, and eventually congressional closure. In contrast, there is a very telling quote in Claudio’s article from thenopposition politician Patricio Aylwin, explaining his thinking in the 1980s about the peaceful struggle for democracy: there was a need “to deliberately avoid the theme of [the constitution’s] legitimacy.”13 Given that type of mindset, the 1989 reform, as Claudio analyzes so well, which otherwise appears hopefully minimalist and unsatisfactory, in fact did set the stage for making subsequent constitutional reform easier by changing some of the rules of the game. Especially from a contemporary perspective, the Chilean Coalition of Parties for Democracy (CPD—Concertación de Partidos por la 12. Fuentes, supra note 3, at 1750 tbl.1. 13. Id. at 1762. 1982 Texas Law Review [Vol. 89:1977 Democracia) center-left coalition, which on the one hand was the most successful coalition government in the entire region during this time period, governing Chile from 1990 to 2005 and successfully winning 3 re-elections, also strikes us as excessively cautious. What may be useful to pursue more in the article or in subsequent research is the counterfactual of a more confrontational and thus inevitably also a more mobilizational strategy earlier on, as apparently Ricardo Lagos sought to do. The article does an excellent job explaining how the CPD governing coalition sought constitutional reform—in its gradual, elitist way—from early on and how its efforts picked up dramatically once Lagos was elected President. Here, the article by Andrea and Julio raises an important issue which is somewhat underanalyzed in Claudio’s article: how did the views of key state actors, such as the military and of the judiciary, evolve over time, as Pinochet was arrested abroad, came back to Chile, and was eventually delegitimized even regarding personal corruption. How did their links, and those of the business sector, with the parties of the right evolve over this time period? Also relevant for future reseach would be the question of what elements of the constitution inherited from the Pinochet military regime the CPD, and particularly the executive branch (granted so many effective powers), found attractive, and whether that potentially slowed change at all. Did the CPD coalition not push harder for reform exclusively because of the perceived inability to convince rightist elements in Congress? And, a more systematic analysis of the changing political context for the right leading up to the significant reforms enacted in 2005 could usefully include public opinion data as another indicator of the electoral pressures felt by these political actors. Chile is a relative outlier in the Latin American context, which makes issues of diffusion especially interesting. As the article notes, diffusion of political ideas is seen as important in generating constitutional change, especially constitutional replacements. Clearly the Chilean model itself is not diffusing to the rest of the region. Rather, the question is whether in this case there was “negative diffusion”—I wonder if in his interviews with party leaders they talked about experiences elsewhere on the continent as lessons to be learned about what not to do? Whether countries have had recent constitutional replacements or more limited reforms like in Chile, one thing that is clear is that both of these appear to be catalysts for further reforms, rather than representing a clear resolution among key actors about the rules of the game under which ordinary politics should be pursued going forward. Claudio Fuentes notes this for the case of Chile. And, regarding more ambitious constitutional replacements, given their highly specific nature or the ambiguities and tensions found in their texts, which political actors subsequently seek to modify or adapt for their advantage, the pattern in the region has been one of on-going constitutional debate and modification. In contemporary Latin America, both political and social actors understand democratic politics to be 2011] Commentary: Constitutional Structure in Latin America 1983 as much about the rules of the game as about political conflict within certain rules. This bodes well for the research agendas of all the authors on this panel.