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Global Monthly
Overview
•
•
Global growth was temporarily held back in Q1 by a
slowdown in U.S. consumption, which is expected to
recover in Q2.
Growth continues to firm in other major advanced
economies and is gradually recovering in commodityexporting emerging market and developing economies
(EMDEs).
•
Capital inflows to EMDEs remained strong in May,
supported by continued investor risk appetite.
•
Oil prices have risen since mid-May on the prospect of an
extension of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cuts, which
was confirmed at an OPEC meeting on May 25.
Chart of the Month
•
Despite heightened policy and political uncertainty, global
equity prices reached record highs in May.
•
In particular, EMDE stock indexes have registered the
largest January-to-May increase in at least a decade, and
have significantly out-performed advanced economies.
•
The strong performance of EMDE equity markets reflects
diminishing growth headwinds for commodity exporters,
increased appetite for high-yielding assets, and
strengthening corporate earnings in EMDEs.
•
Following an uptick mid-May, stock market volatility in
both advanced economies and EMDEs returned to low
historical levels.
May 2017
Table of Contents
Monthly Highlights .............................................. 2
Special Focus ....................................................... 6
Recent Publications of Prospects Group .................. 8
Recent World Bank Working Papers....................... 8
Key World Bank Reports ...................................... 8
Table A: Major Data Releases ............................... 8
Table B: Activity and Inflation.............................. 9
Table C: Trade and Finance ................................. 9
Table D: Financial Markets ............................... 10
Table E: Commodity Prices ................................. 10
Stock market indexes
Sources: Bloomberg, World Bank.
Note: MSCI stock market indexes for 23 advanced and 23 emerging market
economies. Weighted by market capitalization. Five-day average. Last observation
is May 22, 2017.
Special Focus: Synchronicity of U.S. and Global Business Cycles
•
Business cycles in the United States are highly synchronized with those of other economies.
•
This partly reflects the strength of trade and financial linkages between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world,
as well as the impact of global shocks that affect many countries simultaneously.
•
U.S. business cycles tend to be more correlated with business cycles in other advanced economies than those in
EMDEs, with the key exception of Mexico, due to deep economic integration.
The Global Monthly is a publication of the Global Macroeconomics Team of the Prospects Group in the Development Economics Vice
Presidency. This edition was prepared by Marc Stocker and Dana Vorisek, based on contributions from John Baffes, Mai Anh Bui, Sinem
Celik, Gerard Kambou, Eung Ju Kim, Csilla Lakatos, Hideaki Matsuoka, Yoki Okawa, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Collette
Wheeler, and Lei Sandy Ye. This Global Monthly reflects information available as of May 24. For more information, visit: http://
www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring
May 2017
Monthly Highlights
Global economy: manufacturing-driven upturn. Global
industrial production was robust in 17Q1, growing by 3.7
percent (q/q saar). This pace is somewhat slower than a six-year
peak of 5.3 percent (q/q saar) reached in 16Q4, but still
significantly higher than the post-crisis average (Figure 1.A).
Based on available national data, global GDP growth likely
moderated in 17Q1, to around 2.5 percent (q/q saar), driven by a
consumption-led slowdown in the United States. However,
growth was solid in other advanced economies and appears to
have accelerated in major commodity-exporting emerging
EMDEs. In April, the global composite PMI was firmly in
expansionary territory, and broadly stable since the start of the
year. Global median inflation stabilized in March and April at
close to 2.5 percent, the highest level since mid-2014.
Global trade: continued recovery. Global trade growth remained
strong in 17Q1, at around 6 percent (q/q saar). At the regional
level, export growth showed continued signs of recovery in East
Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America,
but remained subdued in Sub-Saharan Africa. The expansion of
new export orders stabilized at a high level in April, suggesting
continued strong trade growth at the start of 17Q2 (Figure 1.B).
However, indicators such as demand for automotive products,
electronic components, and agricultural raw materials point to
weakening global import demand.
United States: ongoing rebound. Growth slowed to 0.7 percent
(q/q saar) in 17Q1, the weakest pace in two years, as real personal
consumption expenditure was held back by transitory factors. In
contrast, private fixed investment growth reached a five-year high,
and export growth recovered strongly. A pickup in retail sales and
industrial production growth in April point to a strong start in
17Q2, and various forecasts suggest that real GDP growth could
accelerate significantly this quarter (Figure 1.C). The
unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in April, the lowest level
since May 2007. Wage growth, though still subdued, has been on
a mild upward trajectory since 2015. Compensation costs rose by
2.3 percent in March (y/y), dampened by a sluggish increase in
benefits, while average hourly earnings growth slowed marginally
in April, to 2.5 percent (y/y). Core CPI inflation slowed to 1.9
percent in April, down 0.4 percentage point since January.
2
FIGURE 1A Global industrial production and trade
FIGURE 1B Global manufacturing PMI
FIGURE 1C U.S. GDP growth
Sources: Consensus Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy
Analysis, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
Haver Analytics, World Bank.
A. Last observation is March 2017 for industrial production and February 2017 for
trade. Estimates for 2017Q1 trade data assume unchanged levels in March.
B. 3-month moving averages. Last observation is April 2017.
C. Diamonds indicate forecast data as of May 23, 2017.
May 2017
Euro Area: positive momentum. Growth reached 2.0 percent
(q/q saar) in 17Q1, with a particularly robust performance of the
German economy. High-frequency data suggest continued
strength at the start of Q2, with broad-based improvements
across countries (Figure 2.A). In April, the composite Euro Area
PMI picked up further, reaching a 73-month high (56.7), while
economic sentiment was the highest since August 2007.
Uncertainty associated with the French presidential elections had
no noticeable effect on consumer or business confidence, and
diminished after the victory of Emmanuel Macron of the centrist
“En Marche!” party. Headline inflation picked up to 1.9 percent
in April, driven by higher services and energy prices. Core
inflation also rose in April, to 1.2 percent.
Other advanced economies: robust activity in Japan. Growth in
Japan picked up to 2.2 percent (q/q saar) in 17Q1, supported by
strengthening private consumption and robust exports.
Manufacturing and services PMIs in April (52.7 and 52.2,
respectively) suggest continued momentum at the start of Q2.
The unemployment rate remains at the lowest level since 1994;
however, wage growth turned negative in March on a decline in
overtime pay, despite an increase in part-time workers’ hourly
wages. Growth in the United Kingdom slowed to 0.7 percent
(q/q saar) in 17Q1, down from 2.7 percent in 16Q4, due to
sluggish private consumption growth and contracting exports. In
contrast, the manufacturing sector has benefited from a weaker
pound. The manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high of 57.3
in April, while inflation accelerated to 2.7 percent.
China: moderating activity. Following a strong expansion in
17Q1 (6.9 percent y/y), economic activity is expected to
moderate in 17Q2. Industrial production growth slowed from
7.6 percent (y/y) in March to 6.5 percent in April. Fixed asset
investment growth also moderated slightly, to a still robust 8.9
percent (y/y) pace. After regaining some strength in 17Q1,
private sector investment weakened in April, yet was partially
offset by a pickup in investment from state-owned enterprises.
Retail sales softened in April, to a still strong 10.7 percent (y/y),
while consumer price inflation moved up to 1.2 percent (y/y).
Credit growth remained strong, at above 12 percent (y/y),
reflecting rapid expansion of loans to households (Figure 2.B).
Tighter regulations led to a continued slowdown in credit to
nonbank financial institutions and led wealth managers to sell
FIGURE 2A Euro Area country composite PMIs
FIGURE 2B Domestic credit growth in China
FIGURE 2C Composite PMI for major
commodity-exporting EMDEs
Source: Haver Analytics.
A. 3-month moving average. Last observation is April 2017.
B. Last observation is April 2017.
C. 3-month moving averages. Last observation is April 2017.
3
May 2017
bonds, pushing 5-year government bond yields above the 10-year
yield for the first time on record. The new U.S.-China guidelines
for bilateral trade released in early May reduced the risk of
retaliatory trade restrictions between the two countries.
EMDE commodity exporters: continued recovery. The
composite PMI for Nigeria surged to 58.2 in April, from an
average of 41.8 in 17Q1, pointing to a likely recovery in the
manufacturing sector. Growth in Russia accelerated to 0.5
percent (y/y) in 17Q1, from 0.3 percent in 16Q4. The composite
PMI remained elevated in April, but suggests that the pace of the
recovery might have peaked. In Brazil, the central bank’s
economic activity index advanced further into positive territory in
March, to 0.7 percent (y/y). The manufacturing and services
PMIs were both above the threshold of 50 in April. Disinflation
has allowed policy interest rate cuts in Brazil and Russia (Figure
3A). At 4.1 percent (y/y) in April in both countries, inflation is
close to or below target levels in Russia (4.0 percent) and Brazil
(4.5 percent central target). Growth in 17Q1 remained strong (5
percent y/y) in Indonesia and accelerated to 5.6 percent (y/y) in
Malaysia, supported by recovering exports and still robust
domestic demand. In South Africa, mining production expanded
by 3.5 percent (q/q, sa) in 17Q1, after contracting in 16Q4.
Manufacturing output grew 0.3 percent (y/y) in March—the first
annual expansion since November.
EMDE commodity importers: generally solid performance. In
India, industrial production growth increased to 2.7 percent (y/
y) in March, from an upwardly revised 1.9 percent in February.
The manufacturing PMI was stable in April, at 52.5, while
inflation eased to 3 percent (y/y), a 12-year low. Mexico’s 17Q1
GDP growth was 2.6 percent (y/y, sa), led by a solid services
sector performance, which offset a contraction in the industrial
sector. Amid steadily rising inflation, the policy interest rate was
further raised on May 18 (Figure 3B). In Turkey, industrial
production and retail sales data suggest a softening of growth in
17Q1. Inflation accelerated to a 10-year high of 11.8 percent in
April. According to a flash estimate, GDP in Poland expanded
4.1 percent (y/y, sa) in 17Q1, amid signs of a recovery in
investment and private consumption. Thailand’s GDP growth
picked up to 5.2 percent (q/q saar) in 17Q1, driven by a rebound
of private consumption and exports, which offset a deceleration
in private investment.
4
FIGURE 3A Policy interest rates in major
commodity-exporting EMDEs
FIGURE 3B Policy interest rates in major
commodity-importing EMDEs
FIGURE 3C Global stock market index and implied
volatility
Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, World Bank.
A. Last observation is May 23, 2017.
B. Last observation is May 23, 2017.
C. Last observation is May 23, 2017.
May 2017
Global financing conditions: limited impact of policy
uncertainty. Financial market volatility generally remained low,
although it increased somewhat mid-May amid heightened
political uncertainties (Figure 3.C). Global equity prices remain
close to record highs as the ongoing global recovery appears to be
supporting investor risk appetite. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell
back as prospects of U.S. fiscal stimulus waned. However, at 2.3
percent, yields are still 40 basis points above levels prevailing
before the U.S. elections. The probability of a June interest rate
hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve is currently above 80 percent
(Figure 4.A), as U.S. labor market conditions continue to tighten
and inflation nears the target level.
EMDE financial markets: ongoing gains. EMDE stocks,
sovereign and corporate bonds, and currencies all posted gains
from January to April. In May, EMDE financial markets
remained buoyant. Capital inflows to EMDEs continued to be
robust, while bond spreads remain near their lowest levels since
September 2014, despite an uptick in second half of the month.
Bond issuance has also continued at a fast clip in May, with
Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras selling $4 billion of 5and 10-year notes. Corporate issuances continue to dominate
bond market activity, as EMDE companies take advantage of
favorable borrowing cost to refinance existing debt (Figure 4.B).
Among sovereign borrowers, Panama, Senegal, Sri Lanka, and
Turkey came to the market with new public debt issuance.
Oil prices: controlling supply. Oil traded below the $50/bbl
mark during the first half of May on persistently high
stocks and quicker-than-expected rebound of U.S. shale oil
production. The rebound of U.S. production, along with
higher-than-expected Libyan and Nigerian output, pushed
oil stocks in OECD countries to near record levels. Stocks
are expected to gradually diminish as demand is projected to
outpace production in the second half of 2017 (Figure 4.C).
Oil prices have gained ground since mid-May on the prospect of
an extension of the OPEC/non -OPEC production cuts.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced on May 15th
that they support extending cuts for nine months, which lifted
prices above $52/bbl. The extension was confirmed at an
OPEC meeting on May 25.
FIGURE 4A Probability of U.S. interest rate hike in
June 2017
FIGURE 4B EMDE international bond issuance
FIGURE 4C Global oil markets
Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic, International Energy Agency, World Bank.
A. Data begin March 16, 2017—one day after Federal Reserve Open Market
Committee. Last observation is May 23, 2017.
B. Last observation is May 23, 2017.
C. Balance is defined as the difference between world oil demand and supply.
OPEC crude oil production for 2017 is assumed at 32.0 mb/d. Shaded area
(2017Q2-2017Q4) represents IEA projections.
5
May 2017
Special Focus: Synchronicity of U.S.
and Global Business Cycles
Business cycles in the United States are highly synchronous with
those of other economies (Figure 5.A). This partly reflects the
strength of trade and financial integration between the U.S.
economy and the rest of the world. The United States is
prominent in virtually every global market, accounting for about
one-tenth of global trade flows, one-fifth of global FDI stock, and
one-fifth of global energy demand. It is the largest export
destination for one-fifth of the world’s countries and the largest
import source for one-tenth. Many U.S. companies are deeply
integrated into global supply chains: about one-quarter of U.S.
exports represents U.S. value added embodied in other countries’
exports, while the average U.S. imports account for more than
one-tenth of U.S. exports. Apart from strong economic and
financial linkages, common exposures to global shocks that affect
many countries contemporaneously also contribute to the high
business cycle synchronicity in the United States and the rest of
the world.
The degree of synchronicity between U.S. and global cycles.
U.S. business cycles tend to be more correlated with those in
other advanced economies than in EMDEs, with the important
exception of Mexico, due to deeper economic integration
between the two countries. Other countries tend to be in the
same business cycle phase as the United States roughly 80 percent
of the time (Figure 5.B). The degree of synchronicity with U.S.
financial cycles is slightly lower than that of business cycles, but
still significant – credit, housing, and equity price cycles are in the
same phase about 60 percent of the time. While it is difficult to
empirically establish whether the U.S. economy leads business
and financial cycle turning points in other major economies, the
United States appears to influence the timing and duration of
recessions in a number of economies. While the 2007-09 global
financial crisis coincided with an increase in the correlation of
business cycles between the United States and advanced
economies, as well as between the United States and BRICS
economies, the average correlation with EMDEs declined slightly
(Figure 5.C).
6
FIGURE 5A Cyclical component of GDP
FIGURE 5B Concordance with U.S. business and
financial cycles
FIGURE 5C Correlations with U.S. business cycles
Sources: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund, Kose and Terrones
(2015), World Bank.
A. Cyclical component is defined as deviation from Hodrick-Prescott-filtered trend.
B. Average share of years in which business cycles in the United States and all
economies were in the same phase. A higher share suggests more
synchronization between two countries.
C. Contemporaneous correlations between cyclical component of U.S. real GDP
and cyclical component of real GDP of advanced economies, EMDEs excluding
BRICS and BRICS countries.
May 2017
Concordance of cyclical turning points. Global GDP growth is
substantially correlated with different phases of the U.S. business
cycle, but international business cycle concordance has been
particularly strong during U.S. recessions. Growth in other
advanced economies and EMDEs was, on average, higher during
periods of U.S. expansions relative to U.S. recessions (Figure
6.A). While the four global economic recessions since 1960
(1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009) were driven by a host of problems
in various corners of the world, they also all overlapped with
recessions in the United States.
The global recession of 1975 coincided with the beginning of a
prolonged period of stagflation, low output growth, and high
inflation in the United States. During the 1982 recession, the
United States, along with several other advanced economies,
experienced a sharp decline in activity and steep increase in
unemployment in the wake of anti-inflationary monetary
policies. Following the peak in July 1990, the United States again
went into recession, this time due to depressed activity in the
housing market and a credit crunch. The U.S. recession of 200709 also had its origins in the U.S. housing market, which turned
into a global crisis after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in
September 2008. While these four U.S. recessions coincided with
global recessions, four other U.S. recessions post-1960 did not.
Activity around U.S. recessions. An event study of the last two
U.S. recessions, in 2001 and 2007-09, illustrates the concordance
of the turning points of the U.S. business cycle with those of
other advanced economies and EMDEs (Figure 6.B and 6.C).
The U.S. economy experienced only a mild recession in 2001
following the burst of the “dot com” bubble of the late 1990s,
whereas the 2007-09 recession was particularly severe. In the four
quarters preceding these last two U.S. business cycle troughs,
other advanced economies also experienced a decline in the
cyclical component of their GDP, while their subsequent
recoveries have remained sluggish. Among EMDEs, slower
activity was also observed around U.S. cyclical troughs, although
to a lesser extent in commodity importers. The cyclical slowdown
in commodity exporters was amplified during the last two U.S.
recessions by declining commodity prices.
FIGURE 6A Growth during U.S. business cycles,
1960-2015
FIGURE 6B Activity around the U.S. recession of
2001
FIGURE 6C Activity around the U.S. recession of
2009
Sources: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund, Kose and Terrones
(2015), World Bank.
A. Cyclical component is defined as deviation from Hodrick-Prescott-filtered
trend.
B.C: The graphs show the cyclical component of GDP measured as the deviation
from trend GDP computed using a Hodrick-Prescott filter on seasonally adjusted
quarterly GDP around a trough in U.S. business cycle (t = 0) indicated by the
solid gray bar. Troughs are 2001Q4 and 2009Q2, as defined by the National
Bureau of Economic Research. The lines refer to the medians of 35 advanced
economies (excluding the United States) and 51 EMDEs.
7
May 2017
Recent Prospects Group Publications
Global Economic Prospects - June 2017 (forthcoming)
Commodity Markets Outlook - April 2017
Global Economic Prospects - January 2017: Weak Investment in Uncertain Times
Commodity Markets Outlook - January 2017: Investment Weakness in Commodity Exporters
Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2016: OPEC in Historical Context
Recent World Bank Working Papers
The Rise of the Middle Class and Economic Growth in ASEAN
Do Countries Learn from Experience in Infrastructure PPP? PPP Practice and Contract Cancellation
Does Oil Revenue Crowd out Other Tax Revenues? Policy Lessons for Uganda
What to Do When Foreign Direct Investment Is Not Direct or Foreign: FDI Round Tripping
Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies
Migration and Cross-Border Financial Flows
The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction
How Much Labor Do South African Exports Contain?
Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth: A Review of Recent Empirical Evidence
Consumption Smoothing and Shock Persistence: Optimal Fiscal Rules for Commodity Exporters
Recent World Bank Reports
World Development Report 2017: Governance and the Law
Doing Business 2017: Equal Opportunity for All
TABLE A: Major Data Releases
(Percent change y-o-y)
(Percent change y-o-y)
Recent releases: April 23, 2017 - May 23, 2017
Country
Upcoming releases: May 24, 2017 - June 22, 2017
Date
Indicator
Period
Actual
Forecast
Previous
France
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
0.7 %
0.8 %
1.1 %
Austria
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
2.0 %
1.7 %
1.8 %
Country
Date
Indicator
Period
Previous
Austria
5/24/17
IP
MAR
3.1 %
Switzerland
5/24/17
IP
Q1
-1.2 %
Spain
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
3.0 %
3.0 %
3.0 %
South Africa
5/24/17
CPI
APR
6.1 %
UK
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
2.1 %
2.2 %
1.9 %
Japan
5/25/17
CPI
APR
0.2 %
2.0 %
Singapore
5/26/17
IP
APR
10.2 %
1.8%
2.4%
United States
5/26/17
GDP
Q1
2.0 %
United States
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
1.9 %
Mexico
4/28/17
GDP
Q1
2.7 %
Indonesia
5/5/17
GDP
Q1
5.0%
4.9%
France
5/30/17
GDP
Q1
1.1 %
Hong Kong
5/12/17
GDP
Q1
4.3%
3.2%
Sweden
5/30/17
GDP
Q1
2.3 %
Thailand
5/15/17
GDP
Q1
3.3 %
Greece
5/15/17
GDP
Q1
-0.5 %
0.2 %
3.2 %
Denmark
5/31/17
GDP
Q1
2.3 %
-1.1 %
Poland
5/31/17
GDP
Q1
4.0 %
Portugal
5/15/17
GDP
Q1
2.8 %
2.1 %
2.0 %
India
5/31/17
GDP
Q4
7.0 %
Italy
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
0.8 %
1.0 %
1.0 %
Belgium
5/31/17
GDP
Q1
1.2 %
Romania
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
5.7 %
4.9 %
Switzerland
6/1/17
GDP
Q1
0.6 %
Czech Republic
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
2.9 %
1.9 %
Finland
6/1/17
GDP
Q1
1.3 %
Netherland
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
3.4 %
Poland
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
4.0 %
Euro Area
5/16/17
GDP
Q1
1.7 %
Japan
5/17/17
GDP
Q1
1.6 %
2.8 %
2.8 %
Brazil
6/1/17
GDP
Q1
-2.5 %
3.1 %
Greece
6/2/17
GDP
Q1
-1.1 %
1.7 %
1.7 %
Australia
6/5/17
GDP
Q1
2.4 %
1.8 %
1.2 %
South Africa
6/6/17
GDP
Q1
0.7 %
Philippines
5/17/17
GDP
Q1
6.4 %
6.6 %
Hungary
6/7/17
GDP
Q1
1.5 %
Malaysia
5/18/17
GDP
Q1
5.6 %
4.5 %
Turkey
6/12/17
GDP
Q1
3.5 %
Germany
5/23/17
GDP
Q1
1.7 %
1.7 %
New Zealand
6/14/17
GDP
Q1
2.7 %
8
1.7 %
May 2017
TABLE B: Activity and Inflation
(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized)
2015
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
1.8
2.2
1.9
2.2
2.9
5.3
1.7
1.9
0.2
3.5
0.2
4.2
0.3
3.6
0.3
4.1
1.8
4.0
3.9
6.8
-0.2
3.7
-0.3
4.1
Commodity-exporting EMDE
0.2
1.2
0.6
1.5
2.4
4.4
-0.8
0.5
Other EMDE
5.0
5.4
4.7
5.1
4.6
7.8
5.6
5.7
East Asia and Pacific
East Asia excl. China
5.8
3.5
5.9
4.9
5.1
6.3
6.7
4.9
5.7
4.0
6.0
3.1
5.6
2.9
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
1.4
-3.1
2.1
-2.9
1.6
-3.5
1.5
0.5
-3.2
0.4
9.8
-1.2
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
2.8
3.5
0.1
5.7
0.9
2.7
7.0
1.6
-3.2
4.3
7.1
8.8
2.5
-6.4
1.4
0.1
1.3
0.4
1.4
0.3
1.7
0.2
2.4
3.8
2.4
3.5
2.7
3.9
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.6
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
1.9
2.7
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
1.9
4.5
3.7
Industrial Production, sa 1
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Inflation, sa 2
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Commodity-exporting EMDE
Other EMDE
East Asia and Pacific
July
2016
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2017
Feb
Mar
2.1
1.8
2.4
2.1
2.2
3.3
3.7
3.1
3.5
4.0
-0.2
4.4
-0.4
4.1
0.6
4.3
0.3
3.9
0.2
4.2
1.9
4.7
2.5
4.9
1.1
5.1
2.2
4.8
2.3
5.8
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.0
1.3
2.2
3.2
2.8
2.2
-
5.5
4.9
5.5
5.0
5.3
5.7
5.6
6.0
5.7
6.7
6.0
6.0
6.2
7.0
6.1
6.9
6.3
6.1
5.6
2.4
5.6
2.8
5.9
4.6
6.0
6.3
6.0
3.9
6.2
5.1
7.2
5.0
2.6
-4.7
2.9
-3.9
2.2
-2.3
0.2
-2.2
1.8
-2.9
0.5
-2.0
1.6
-2.8
2.8
-1.0
2.6
0.9
4.2
0.0
1.1
0.6
4.1
-1.2
4.6
-3.5
2.0
6.4
2.6
2.4
7.3
4.1
2.9
6.8
4.3
3.7
6.0
1.4
3.1
5.4
0.1
4.3
4.5
-0.1
6.5
5.1
-1.1
5.7
0.6
3.0
-0.9
4.2
0.1
2.4
-2.7
3.5
-2.3
1.4
0.4
1.7
0.8
1.8
0.2
1.8
0.1
1.7
0.4
1.7
0.4
1.4
0.4
1.5
0.5
1.5
0.6
1.6
0.7
1.8
1.1
2.3
1.5
2.4
1.8
2.4
1.6
3.0
3.9
2.9
3.4
2.6
3.3
3.2
4.0
2.8
3.6
2.6
3.9
2.9
3.8
2.9
3.3
2.9
3.1
2.5
3.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
3.2
3.1
3.5
3.4
3.7
3.5
3.6
1.1
1.1
2.0
2.2
1.7
2.7
1.7
2.5
1.9
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.0
1.8
2.1
1.5
2.2
1.6
2.6
1.5
2.4
1.6
2.4
1.8
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.4
2.4
0.7
2.7
0.3
3.5
0.5
3.0
1.0
3.1
0.2
3.6
0.3
3.4
0.4
3.3
1.2
2.9
0.5
3.2
0.5
3.1
0.9
2.9
0.9
3.2
1.5
3.2
2.3
3.1
2.5
3.4
2.7
3.3
2.2
4.9
5.3
2.5
3.8
5.2
2.4
5.3
5.2
2.3
5.3
5.7
1.9
3.9
5.9
2.5
4.6
5.3
2.2
5.2
4.8
2.4
5.7
5.6
2.3
5.7
5.5
2.1
5.2
5.9
2.5
5.0
5.9
1.9
4.2
5.7
2.0
3.7
6.2
1.8
3.7
6.5
2.2
3.7
6.7
2.5
4.2
6.7
2.9
5.0
6.8
Apr
May
June
1Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and
coal products, crude petroleum products" are used as proxies.
2Median inflation rate for each grouping.
TABLE C: Trade and Finance
(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
2016
2016
2017
2015
2016
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Apr
May
June
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
-11.5
-11.3
-3.0
-0.8
-12.6
-4.9
14.4
15.4
0.2
0.3
7.4
3.6
-2.7
-0.1
-3.2
-0.5
-4.2
-2.3
-6.8
-5.3
2.8
5.6
-0.7
1.5
-3.3
-1.8
4.9
6.2
4.0
5.6
10.4
9.1
7.1
7.2
12.1
9.0
Other EMDE
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
-12.0
-24.2
-3.8
-3.5
-20.7
-6.6
-9.3
-4.6
-6.1
-6.1
-24.0
-27.5
-21.3
-25.3
-19.0
12.5
15.2
11.4
12.8
18.4
0.2
5.8
-1.8
-2.1
-0.5
15.0
28.6
10.2
11.0
20.2
-7.1
-14.4
-2.7
-4.2
-8.0
-7.7
-12.7
-4.6
-6.2
-10.6
-7.2
-13.7
-3.1
-5.5
-4.2
-9.2
-15.2
-5.7
-6.9
-8.8
-1.7
-1.9
-1.0
-1.7
0.5
-4.4
-1.7
-5.0
-6.9
-1.1
-5.7
-5.8
-5.1
-6.0
-3.6
3.0
7.6
1.8
1.7
6.5
1.6
8.1
-0.5
-2.2
7.7
12.8
27.2
7.9
9.3
22.2
6.9
19.7
2.5
2.6
12.7
17.9
25.2
15.3
16.3
20.9
Latin America and Caribbean
-11.9
-2.4
-6.6
7.4
7.4
15.0
-5.2
-2.0
-8.0
-7.6
2.6
2.8
-4.4
10.3
11.0
15.0
12.3
16.8
-27.1
-4.8
-26.8
1.6
-14.8
6.1
-40.5
4.5
22.7
-18.0
-6.0
32.2
34.7
0.8
-15.9
-0.3
-17.7
5.1
-18.5
-4.0
-22.5
5.8
-13.0
-3.2
-2.8
10.7
-11.0
3.4
0.3
0.2
5.2
2.8
-
2.1
-
11.6
-
-6.8
-12.5
-3.3
-0.9
-11.5
-13.1
-21.4
-5.3
-3.4
-6.4
-7.1
-3.7
-3.7
-1.9
-24.3
-9.2
-31.8
-34.1
-21.7
-24.6
0.9
18.7
8.5
25.3
27.9
16.2
19.0
12.1
-17.5
-2.5
-25.4
-31.8
2.4
5.2
-2.3
20.8
2.0
33.9
38.5
19.1
21.9
6.5
4.4
-4.0
9.4
14.3
-8.0
-8.0
-4.9
-4.2
-1.9
-5.5
-6.7
-0.9
0.4
-1.8
-4.4
-4.6
-4.3
-4.0
-5.8
-6.8
0.1
-10.9
-8.2
-12.4
-12.7
-11.4
-11.0
-10.1
-6.9
1.7
-11.7
-15.5
3.2
5.6
8.4
-5.7
-1.9
-7.9
-9.9
-0.3
-0.1
1.2
-9.7
-5.0
-12.2
-15.0
-0.6
-0.9
0.7
3.6
2.4
4.3
4.2
5.0
6.0
5.3
-1.7
1.2
-3.3
-5.3
3.6
5.5
6.6
11.6
9.4
12.9
12.1
15.6
17.1
22.0
5.4
3.1
6.8
2.3
23.7
33.7
8.2
10.4
8.5
11.5
20.3
21.0
15.1
-9.8
1.5
-13.2
-7.6
-7.4
-5.5
-
-16.7
-25.9
-
6.6
3.3
-
2.3
11.8
-
5.6
50.9
-
-9.4
-19.0
-
-6.2
-8.5
-
-8.8
-5.9
-
-15.5
-13.9
-
1.5
-9.1
-
-3.4
1.1
-
-8.4
7.8
-
1.6
10.1
-
3.9
2.1
-
11.3
14.8
-
5.3
22.0
-
13.9
40.9
-
-5.9
0.6
-9.9
-11.1
-9.1
-11.3
-6.3
-5.3
-1.1
4.4
-4.8
-5.7
-7.3
4.4
1.1
0.7
3.7
-1.2
-1.0
-1.2
-1.8
4.1
0.1
0.8
1.7
0.2
-0.7
0.7
0.3
2.7
0.7
0.4
1.4
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.7
1.2
1.6
-3.3
-2.5
-3.9
-4.5
-4.9
-3.8
-0.9
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.7
0.5
1.5
0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8
-1.0
-0.2
-0.2
0.8
1.4
0.5
0.0
0.7
0.9
1.4
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.5
1.6
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
-0.5
-0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.9
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.3
-0.1
-1.1
-0.7
-1.4
-1.7
-1.2
-1.3
-0.8
-0.6
-1.7
-1.5
-1.8
-1.1
-2.1
-2.4
-1.7
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2
-0.9
-1.2
-1.2
-1.4
0.1
0.7
1.5
0.1
0.0
-0.1
2.1
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-17.1
11.6
-12.0
3.5
-
-3.6
1.0
-2.0
-2.6
2.0
-1.9
-2.0
3.3
-
-2.8
-
-0.5
1.9
0.4
-0.8
-0.8
-1.7
-1.3
0.8
-
-0.7
1.4
-
-0.8
0.6
-
-0.5
1.4
-
-2.6
-1.0
-
-0.9
-
-0.9
-
-0.1
-
0.5
-
1.5
-
Exports, Nominal, US$, sa
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Commodity-exporting EMDE
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Imports, Nominal, US$, sa
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Commodity-exporting EMDE
Other EMDE
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
International Reserves, US$ 1
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Commodity-exporting EMDE
Other EMDE
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
1
Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable.
9
May 2017
TABLE D: Financial Markets
(Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period )
2016
2016
MRV 1
2017
2015
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
U.S. Fed Funds Effective
0.13
0.40
0.37
0.39
0.45
0.70
0.36
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.41
0.41
0.55
0.66
0.66
0.79
0.91
0.91
ECB repo
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
US$ LIBOR 3-months
0.32
0.74
0.64
0.79
0.92
1.07
0.65
0.65
0.70
0.81
0.85
0.88
0.91
0.98
1.03
1.04
1.13
1.16
1.19
EURIBOR 3-months
-0.02
-0.26
-0.26
-0.30
-0.31
-0.33
-0.26
-0.27
-0.29
-0.30
-0.30
-0.31
-0.31
-0.32
-0.33
-0.33
-0.33
-0.33
-0.33
US 10-yr Treasury yield
2.12
1.84
1.75
1.56
2.12
2.44
1.80
1.64
1.48
1.56
1.63
1.74
2.12
2.50
2.44
2.42
2.47
2.29
2.24
German Bund, 10 yr
0.54
0.14
0.12
-0.07
0.18
0.35
0.16
0.01
-0.09
-0.07
-0.05
0.03
0.22
0.30
0.34
0.32
0.39
0.25
0.40
Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)
Spreads (basis points)
JP Morgan Emerging Markets
415
410
419
372
369
340
418
418
387
367
361
357
380
370
354
338
329
331
320
Asia
224
221
227
197
197
175
223
233
210
190
191
192
201
198
185
173
166
173
164
Europe
348
302
305
282
283
261
305
303
290
282
273
274
294
282
272
258
253
250
237
Latin America & Caribbean
540
537
551
477
475
445
552
541
496
473
463
453
491
481
463
442
431
431
422
Middle East
456
517
538
508
467
396
530
545
540
492
493
487
475
438
416
396
377
350
359
Africa
415
518
548
461
436
389
552
546
494
448
440
441
444
422
401
387
380
400
373
Stock Indices (end of period)
Global (MSCI)
399
424
399
418
424
449
403
399
414
417
418
413
413
424
433
445
449
455
463
1663
1761
1653
1726
1761
1854
1675
1653
1713
1720
1726
1697
1712
1761
1792
1839
1854
1878
1907
United States (S&P 500)
2044
2258
2099
2168
2258
2363
2097
2099
2170
2171
2168
2139
2199
2258
2279
2364
2363
2384
2398
Europe (S&P Euro 350)
1474
1475
1339
1388
1475
1547
1399
1339
1376
1390
1388
1377
1388
1475
1463
1501
1547
1564
1587
Japan (Nikkei 225)
18817 19302 15576 16450 19302 18909
17235
15576
16556
16887
16450
17050
18604
19302
19035
19342
18909
19197
19755
Advanced Economies ($ Index)
Emerging Market and
Developing Economies (MSCI)
EM Asia
794
861
834
903
861
958
807
834
879
894
903
908
863
861
909
936
958
978
1004
404
419
407
448
419
474
400
407
431
442
448
444
426
419
443
459
474
484
502
EM Europe
244
295
265
273
295
301
268
265
264
269
273
274
273
295
302
296
301
313
316
EM Europe & Middle East
211
248
225
233
248
252
225
225
227
232
233
232
230
248
253
249
252
259
262
EM Latin America & Caribbean 1830
2341
2269
2381
2341
2611
2038
2269
2359
2402
2381
2608
2330
2341
2516
2600
2611
2601
2537
0.90
0.89
0.90
0.93
0.94
0.89
0.89
Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)
Advanced Economies
Euro Area
0.90
Japan
121.00 108.80 107.96 102.36 109.63 113.63 108.97 105.34
Emerging and Developing Economies
Brazil
3.33
1
0.90
0.89
0.89
0.91
0.93
0.95
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.93
0.89
104.09
101.31
101.69
103.72
108.90
116.28
115.03
112.96
112.91
110.02
110.99
3.27
3.49
3.51
3.25
3.28
3.14
3.54
3.42
3.28
3.21
3.25
3.18
3.33
3.35
3.20
3.10
3.13
3.14
China
6.29
6.65
6.53
6.67
6.84
6.89
6.53
6.59
6.68
6.65
6.67
6.74
6.85
6.92
6.89
6.87
6.90
6.89
6.89
Egypt
7.70
10.12
8.87
8.87
14.71
17.82
8.86
8.87
8.87
8.87
8.88
9.25
16.34
18.56
18.68
17.01
17.76
18.09
18.11
India
64.14 67.19 66.91 66.94 67.39
66.97
66.93
67.29
67.18
66.91
66.74
66.73
67.60
67.86
68.06
67.01
65.83
64.52
64.55
Russia
61.34 67.06 65.84 64.61 62.95
58.67
65.96
65.01
64.43
64.93
64.48
62.57
64.25
62.03
59.76
58.42
57.83
56.53
56.50
South Africa
12.77 14.71 15.01 14.07 13.92
13.24
15.36
15.05
14.40
13.79
14.01
13.92
13.96
13.88
13.60
13.17
12.95
13.46
13.26
Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate
114.7 119.7 117.5 118.4 122.5
(index)
123.4
117.8
118.2
118.9
117.8
118.6
119.7
122.9
124.9
124.8
123.0
122.5
121.6
120.5
MRV = Most Recent Value.
TABLE E: Commodity Prices
2016
Energy 2
Non-energy 2
Agriculture 2
Metals and minerals
2
2016
MRV 1
2017
2015
2016
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
65
55
56
57
64
68
57
59
57
58
58
64
59
68
69
69
65
67
67
82
80
81
82
83
86
81
83
82
82
81
81
83
84
85
87
85
83
83
89
89
91
91
90
91
91
94
92
91
90
90
90
89
91
91
89
88
88
68
64
62
64
71
78
61
61
64
65
64
65
73
75
76
79
79
75
73
Memo items:
Crude oil, average ($/bbl)
Gold ($/toz)
Baltic Dry Index
51
43
45
45
49
53
46
48
44
45
45
49
45
53
54
54
51
52
52
1161
711
1249
676
1260
613
1334
736
1221
994
1219
938
1261
623
1276
608
1337
707
1340
675
1327
826
1267
870
1238
1080
1157
1031
1192
913
1234
760
1231
1142
1267
1229
1267
954
Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg
1
MRV = Most Recent Value.
2
Indexes, 2010 = 100.
© 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org
Some rights reserved
This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its
Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The maps were produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this
work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on these maps do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
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