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Dimensions of climate and health risks and opportunities Rural and agriculture 19th May 2016 Helsinki Madeleine C. Thomson International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York. PAHO/WHO Collaborating Centre on early warning systems for malaria and other climate sensitive diseases There are many drivers of health outcome – what makes climate unique? • it is measured routinely around the world by the meteorological/climate community • It operates at multiple temporal and spatial scales – suitable for integration with surveillance data • It is partially predictable in some seasons, regions, timescales • It drives many aspects of life that impact on health including agriculture, food security, livehihoods, nutrition etc- especially in rural areas. Climate is measured using observations, remote sensing and models Climate varies on multi timescales • Day and night – rotation of the Earth every 24 hours • Seasonal cycle – movement of the Earth around the sun • Year to year variability - Short term cyclical changes in sea surface temperature (ENSO) • Decadal variability – long term cyclical changes in sea surface temperature • Climate change – anthropogenic forcing It is partially predictable in some regions and seasons Predictability across timescales.. Where are we? “Good” UNDERSTANDING “Some Info” PREDICTABILITY “Frontier” Seasonal-to Seasonal -Interannual Climate Change Change Decadal Decadal Timescale Our understanding of climate variability and our ability to predict it is not constant across timescales. Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades RSMAS -- January 11, 2010 Thanks to Lawrence Haddad, Jess Fanzo, Israel Ukawuba and Aisha Muhammad Climate and Nutrition: Conceptual Links GNR 2015 Food environment Work/social environment Health access impacted by seasonally impassable roads Blanford et al. International Journal of Health Geographics 2012, 11:24 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL http://www.ij-healthgeographics.com/content/11/1/24 Living environment Why rainfall seasonality is important for health and well being Seasonality affects every aspect of life in rural areas from food security, infectious disease, access to health facilities, disposable income, births, deaths, marriages etc. According to Robert Chambers “seasonal hunger is the father of famine” and that “any development professional serious about poverty has … to be serious about seasonality.” Popular in development studies in the 1970s, and 1980’s Seasonality is back. Seasonal hunger may be the primary indicator of population vulnerability to climate change Seasonal and year to year variability Epidemic malaria in Kericho associated with long term trends and the 1997/8 El Niño Thomson, M.C. Connor, S.J., Zebiak, S.E. Jancloes, M., and Mihretie, A (2011) Africa needs climate data to fight disease. Nature, 471 440-442 (24th March 2011) Predicted and actual trends in East African rainfall Left: Projected climate change 2080-2099) IPCC 4th Assessment, Right: Observed decline in MAM rainfall 1979-2009) Funk (2011) Time scale Decomposition Figure 1 Timescale decomposition for annual rainfall (upper panel) and temperature (lower panel), indicating the total explained variance for the long-term trend (first column), decadal (middle column) and inter-annual variability (right column). (Rainfall data: CRUv3.21; Temperature data: GISSLO Munoz et al., 2016. Why is Climate Information so rarely used in support of development interventions? ‘Gap Analysis’ identified Gaps in: • policy • practice • services • data Market atrophy - negligible demand coupled with inadequate supply of climate services The Goal of ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) is to transform local, national and regional climate-sensitive development decisions through the widespread uptake of timely, relevant, locally enhanced, quality assured climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales. Bulletin World Meteorological Society 2011 ENACTS Advantage ARC RFE ENACTS Monitoring ENACTS Climate Analysis Enhanced National Climate Services (ENACTS) Ethiopia New products combine locally calibrated satellite rainfall and temperature estimates and all available quality controlled groundbased meteorological station gauge data. 30 years – every 10 days every 10km Climate Analysis tool exploring ENACTS data for Oromia ENACTS data in Tanzania Comparison of CMAP and ENACTS rainfall Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation (WASP) Index CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) ENACTS Ethiopian analysis What is the impact of El Nino on Rainfall and Temperature?? Historical probability of seasonal monthly averages conditioned on El Niño in Ethiopia a) a) Low rainfall for Jul-Sep and (b) high rainfall Oct-Dec (c) high minimum temperatures Oct-Dec July to September 2015 drought Trends JASOND Minimum Temperature anomalies in highland (2000-2500ft) Oromia region (see insert) based on ENACTS data 1981-2014.. What can we do with climate information? I. improve understanding of the mechanisms of climates impact on transmission pathways and health outcomes (basic research) II. estimate populations at risk (risk mapping) III. estimate seasonality of disease and timing of interventions IV. monitor and predict year-to-year variations in incidence (including early warning systems) V. monitor and predict longer term trends (climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments) VI. improve assessment of the impact of interventions (by removing climate as a confounder) CCAFS role in ENACTS and WISER Jim Hansen WISER ENACTS Launch Meeting, 18 February 2016 Rwanda ENACTS Launch SERVER/SUSTAINABILITY : 24/7 Server SERVER/SUSTAINABILITY : 24/7 Server BARRIERS TO ENACTS MAPROOM ONLINE AVAILABILITY ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ ➤ Power cuts, power shedding; no automatic generator backup Network outages, network overloading Hardware failure; lightning strikes Backup personnel not in place Trained staff leaving the institution No local monitoring of availability Going to scale • 24/7 national climate data, products and services designed to serve user needs – ENACTS • Education and training materials through school, universities (schools of public health) and professional training using national climate knowledge and data • Multiple case studies integrating climate information into decision-making for improved health outcomes • Nutrition – intersection of climate, health, agriculture and disasters. • Communication of results with policy makers