Download Boston Extremes

Boston Extremes
8/23/2011
“Earthquake shakes Boston area”
8/30/2011
“Hurricane Irene slams East Coast”
10/30/2011
“Bizarre Blizzard hits Boston area”
Lodovica Illari - EAPS
illari@ mit.edu
Not Christmas
but
October 29-30, 2011
Heavy snow in Coopersburg, PA on October 29 brought down trees and blocked roads.
Image credit: wunderphotographer boyrr.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Very confused (stoneygirl)
One half of this photo is fall and
The other half is winter. Crazy isn't it?
Snowbound!! (suzi46)
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
.
Snow depth as of 2 am EDT Sunday October 29, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
NWC
Record breaking 2.9” of snow fell in Central Park.
Record dates back to 1869.
The storm damaged about half the park's 800 acres.
It could cost $500,000 to repair the damage and replant.
2011 is New York City's 3rd wettest year on record.
The city's year-to-date total is 65.75", 24.10" above normal.
New York City has a chance to beat its all-time wettest year in history,
the 80.56" that fell in 1980.
The Snowstorm of October 2011
is a record breaking snow storm.
Why so early??
10/27/2011: GOES East satellite image
A peculiar interaction between tropical storm Rina
and the mid latitude jet
Surface pressure map + surface obs
Surface pressure map + IR satellite image
1 day later
2 days later
Main clue: the upper level jet
A typical Nor’easter:
interaction between upper level jet and surface temperature anomalies
US - unique location
with large amplitude anomalies
US
Gulf
Cold air over land
Jet dips down over the Gulf region
Advection of warm air northward along the East coast
Forced from
ABOVE
Nor’easter:
typical vertical structure
tropopause
15km
Observations
⊙
W
⊗
E
Many questions:
Is this just natural variability?
Or is it related to global warming?
Historic storm:
the Great Snow Hurricane of October 9, 1804
A very similar scenario:
a hurricane roared ashore on Long Island and encountered
an arctic air mass over southeastern Canada.
The winds of the hurricane caused extensive damage from NY to MA –
the steeple of North Church in Boston was blown down.
In Vermont up to three feet of snow.
The Catskills of New York reported 12-18“.
The Berkshires of Massachusetts received 24-30".
Coastal New Haven reported some snow (and 3.66" of rain).
Reference: "Early American Winters: 1604-1820", by David M. Ludlum, American Meteorological Society, 1966, and "Early
American Hurricanes, 1492-1870", by the same author.
But the October 2011 storm looks of even greater magnitude than the 1804
storm, although three weeks later in the season.
Past Blizzards
Blizzard of Feb’06
Blizzard of Feb’10 or
Snowpocalypse
The Synoptic Laboratory: Case Studies
More snow on the way………………..
The Dome
Sidewalk Canyon
Parking Lot Mountain
Drifting at Building 54
Snow pictures
The Blizzard of 2006
New York Blizzard of 2010
New York City
Historic Blizzards
The Blizzard of 1978
Stranded cars on Route 128
Route 128 near Great Blue Hill
in Canton
NO EXIT: The scene on Route 95 near RI exits 21 and 22
shows the total obstruction of the interstate
LONG DISTANCE: There are
long distance phone calls,
and there are long distance
phone calls. This woman
reached into a phone booth
on Broad Street, Providence,
and made it the hard way. Of
course, there was a reason
for it ... the booth was filled
with snow.
- Bob Emerson Copyright
© 1998 The Providence
Journal Company
The End
Blizzard of Feb’06
An example of a Nor’easter
(1)
1 Phenomenology
Structure: horizontal and vertical
Development: where do they come from?
2
(2)
Forecasting extreme events
How reliable are forecasts of tracks and intensity?
(3)
3 Current issues
what might happen in the future?
More winter storms?
Any connection to global warming?
Gallery of Images
1
Horizontal structure
surface pressure
Blizzard of Feb’06
L
2000km
2
Forced from
ABOVE
Vertical Structure
tropopause
Blizzard Feb’06
⊙
W
⊗
E
Development of a Nor’easter
tropopause
surface
temperature
Trop_loop
Strong mid-latitude cyclones develop through:
interaction of tropopause anomalies and
surface temperature anomalies
A Nor’easter:
key is Interaction between tropopause and surface temperature anomalies
US - unique location
with large amplitude anomalies
US
Gulf
Cold air over land
Tropoapuse dips down over the Gulf region
Advection of warm air northward along the East coast
(3)
3 Current issues
Frequency of stronger and more destructive Blizzards
has increased in recent years???
Is this just natural variability?
Blizzards and global warming?
Time article: “Another Blizzard: What Happened to
Global Warming”
Have forecasts improved?
Blizzards
- track forecast: sometimes difficult
- Intensity forecast: short range good, longer range more difficult
Let’s compare now with the Blizzard of ‘78