Download Challenges of Economic Diversification for

Challenges of Economic Diversification for
Sustainable Development
Dr Opha Pauline Dube
Department of Environmental Science,
University of Botswana
History shows that environmental resources have shaped
economy, culture and human organization:
• E.g. In Botswana:
• The eastern wetter part with more fertile soil –
arable agriculture, scattered settlements dominated
• While in the drier parts, pastoral
systems, nucleated settlements and developed
kingdom occurred
Technological developments and pursuit for
economic growth have resulted in
• great inter-linkages between human activity and
biophysical environment globally:
• Giving rise to Socio-Ecological Systems i.e. multiscale resource use around which humans have
organised themselves in a particular social structure,
within an ecological system
• Greater inter-linkages between human and
natural systems is one feature of the
anthropocene period and it calls for a holistic
approach to development
The Challenge for Botswana: building resilient socioecological systems to achieve sustainable development
• Resilience of Socio-ecological systems i.e. capacity to
absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing
change but retaining essentially the same function,
structure, identity etc.
• Resilience of socio-ecological systems can be
influenced through adaptability i.e. management.
• Where ecological, economic, or social structures of a
socio-ecological system cannot bounce back to
original equilibrium- Transformability i.e. capacity to
create a fundamentally new system may be
required
(Walker et al. 2004)
The background statement of this conference: “As one of the
world’s poorest countries at independence…..”
• Poor in the eyes of who? i.e. By what and whose
measure?
• Botswana was never a poor country at
Any time in its history.
• The country has always had vast resources:
– Mineral wealth now being explored
– Rangelands supporting domestic and wildlife resources
– Indigenous knowledge providing appropriate organizational
structures to adapt to the local environment, exploit and
share and manage natural resources
• Perceptions that “Botswana was once the world’s poorest”
serve to engrave low self-esteem – eroding confidence we
need to fearlessly address diversification of Botswana’s
economy for sustainable development.
Value of Africa’s natural capital:
Commenting on Ghana’s failed hopes of oil riches
Graham Brown-Martin (08 August 2014) noted
that
• “If the African continent was to unify around a
single currency - say the "Afro" the western
economy would collapse given that the value of
such a currency, based upon the continents
reserves of mineral deposits, would massively
reduce the value of the US dollar.”
• This obviously is not achievable under a
regionally and globally distorted and
manipulated capitalist system
Botswana: 48 years of stable multi-party democracy
(elections every 5 years & 2 terms for presidency)
• with a population of roughly 2m
• A middle income country - GDP per capita (PPP) stood at
US$ 13, 604 by 2009
• Evidence of government response to its citizens includes:
• Education - literacy rate over 90%
• Health- about 85% accessed health facility within the WHO
15 km walking distance by end of the 1990s.
• Response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic -free provision of Antiviral medication & prevention of mother to child infection
• Investment in road transport system & subsidized water,
electricity & postal services
• A self-help housing programme ; Remote area dweller
programme for the marginalized; youth programmes etc.
• Poverty eradication etc.
Botswana’s success lie largely with translating the country’s
non-renewable diamond mineral resources to more diverse
and usable form of wealth (e.g. from various internet sources)
Questions for this conference are:
• How far can this diamond translated wealth provide a
foundation for the future? i.e.
• How resilient is this wealth – in the face of local and external
pressures i.e. How robust was our planning, choice of
investment areas, quality of what was invested on?
– Can the newly created wealth translate/create /spin and
sustain other new wealth for us in future ?
• This comes to: How, as a society we have
developed and organized ourselves i.e. whether
we did so in ways that render us vulnerable or
resilient to current and future risks?
There are numerous such risk but I give examples from the
environment point of view
Consider Resilience of our mineral
generated wealth to hazards such as:
• Hydro-meteorological hazards e.g.
Climate variability and climate change –
effects on water supply, food production etc.
• Health hazards e.g. malaria under climate
change and
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa - a result of global connectivity in the
midst of poor governance and poverty – is a potential threat to Botswana too
From goolge sources
•
Geophysical hazards e.g.
earthquakes: Are frequent tremors
experienced in the past years warning
signs for something worse to come? –
deceased- Dr Sheik Umar Khan
Note: There are no natural disasters
– All disasters are human made
The conference intends to address the serious
issue of economic diversification & a sustainable
development model “from an economic and
political point of view”?
• What does this mean?
? Interdependent and
mutually
reinforcing pillars of
sustainable
development:
Economic, Social, and
Environmental growth
UN 2005 World Summit
Within this- Environment
is our production base
The degradation of the production
base of the economy i.e.
environmental resources - arises
mostly from too much focus on
economic growth, choosing to
disregard value and irreversibility
of damage on ecosystems
Traditional economic production indicators e.g.:
• Gross domestic product (GDP) and Human
Development Index (HDI) • fail to reflect on natural resources i.e. whether
national policies are sustainable
[Hence the statement that Botswana was once a poor
country for e.g.]
• GDP does not recognize the cost of inequality on
e.g. the environment and together with HDI say
little on quality of our lives.
• The question: How responsible is that development
- is not an issue for HDI such that e.g. USA, Canada
& Australia record high HDI even though this is at the
cost of the planet and the future of humanity.
Level of development: using the Human
Development Index and Ecological Footprint of Nations
(2002 data): The lower right quadrant is where
the minimum requirements for sustainability occurs
From Africa’s Ecological Footprint Fact Book – No country meets
the sustainability requirements
The challenge for Botswana as is so with
the global community is
• What development
pathway is best to address
the three pillars of
sustainable development ?
And
• What indicators can be
used to assess sustainable
development?
New approaches to GDP suggest that it
should:
• Measure genuine economic welfare – quality of
life and
• Indicate the sustainability of that welfare over
time e.g.
– Cattle keeping industry: Mismanagement result in
overstocking leading to land degradation with negative
effects on water resources and land productivity and
increased susceptibility flooding – then the activity is
un-sustainable
• Other suggest that HDI be converted to: a Human
Sustainable Development Index (HSDI) (Togtokh,
2011) i.e. to include a nation’s per capita carbon
emissions
UNU-IHDP and UNEP: Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) another option that Botswana can use to map its
diversification for sustainable development.
• IWI Considers a country’s capital assets e.g.
manufactured, human and natural capital
• IWI could help provide guidance on forms of capital
investment required to ensure sustainable development.
• When tested on 20 countries -25% of those with a
positive trend using GDP per capita and HDI fell on the
negative under IWI per capita due to decline in natural
capital.
• Botswana is working on valuation of its natural capital –
implementation is yet to be witnessed
Negative IWI per capita was linked to
depletion of non-renewable natural capital
– E.g. oil and minerals as was for SA, Nigeria, Russia
• This case will apply for Botswana as mineral
resources e.g. diamonds are depleted
– But reduction in natural capital can be offset by
investments in other areas e.g. manufactured and
human capital, infrastructure as Botswana has been
doing
• But considering the vulnerability of such capital
noted above- it is best to also invest in renewable
capital – the low carbon - green economy as a
way to diversification for sustainable
development
Another approach towards diversification for
sustainable development
• Using a framework that is based on
strives to meet Sustainable development
Goals that incorporate the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs)
Need to set Sustainable development Goals that
incorporate MDGs: six e.g.s have been suggested (David
Griggs, 2013)
• Thriving lives and livelihoods- MDGs on poverty,
health and urban environments
• Sustainable food security — through sustainable
systems of production, distribution and
consumption: MDG hunger target & to include
limit nitrogen and phosphorus use in agriculture
• Sustainable water security - access to clean water
and basic sanitation, and ensure efficient allocation
through integrated water-resource management:
MDG on health
VO L 4 9 5 | N AT U R E
Six MGDs proposed so far……
• Universal clean energy- universal, affordable
access to clean energy: MDG targets on education,
gender equity and health.
• Healthy and productive ecosystems- Sustain
biodiversity and ecosystem services through better
management, valuation, measurement,
conservation and restoration: MDG environmental
targets
• Governance for sustainable societies - Transform
governance and institutions at all levels to address
the other five sustainable development goals: MDG
on partnerships and incorporate environmental and
social targets into global trade, investment and
finance.
Thank you