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Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline CHAPTER 5 REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS AND VALUE STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES This unit will cover the following topics: 5.1 5.2 5.3 The Real Estate Value Influences How Economic Trends Affect Real Estate The Economic Principles of Valuation Class Activities [Instructor: Complete as needed.] Lecture [ ] Discussion [ ] Breakout Groups [ ] Other _____________[ ] 5.1 THE REAL ESTATE VALUE INFLUENCES For any object to have value, certain essential elements must be present. Four Essential Elements of Value In the context of the market, there are only four basic elements that create the value of an object. 1. 2. 3. 4. Utility: usefulness; the ability to arouse a desire for possession Scarcity: in relatively short supply; lack of abundance Demand: desire to possess plus the ability to buy; effective purchasing power Transferability: ability to change ownership or use; marketable title [Note: Sample licensing exam questions published by The Appraisal Foundation suggest that the four economic factors that create value are utility, scarcity, desire and effective purchasing power. The authors feel that “transferability” is essential to the creation of value. In the context of a multiple-choice question, we feel either combination is recognizable as a correct answer when compared to other less correct question choices.] Broad Forces Influencing Value The four broad forces influencing value are labeled as physical, social, economic and political: Physical Forces 1. 2. Natural resources: the land, topography, soil, access and location; climate, air, water, and mineral resources; plant and animal life; and scenic beauty and ecological balance. Developed resources: subdivided land; structures for human occupancy, commerce, and industry; public utilities, and health and safety facilities; street, road, highway and public transportation improvements; and recreation, education, and cultural facilities. 5-1 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline Social Forces 1. Demographics: distribution of family sizes, incomes, education levels, and age groups in the various neighborhoods and communities 2. Neighborhood stability: attitudes about property use and maintenance 3. Population: growth, decline, or shifts 4. Life-styles and living standards 5. Attitudes: behavior, law, government, and individual responsibility 6. Attitudes: development, growth, environmental protection and ecology 7. Attitudes: public education Economic Forces 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Income levels of neighborhood and community residents Employment opportunities and trends Levels of wages and types of jobs Availability of money and credit, and interest rate levels Price levels and property insurance and tax burdens Personal savings levels and investment returns General business activity Supply of and demand for housing Production of goods and services Political Forces 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. Zoning and land-use regulations Building and safety regulations Environmental protection laws Endangered species acts Police, fire, and health services Crime prevention, education, and recreation services Public works: power, water, sewers, flood control, and transportation Fiscal policy and taxation Monetary policy and controls Government-sponsored urban redevelopment & housing finance programs Regulation of industry and business 5-2 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline 5.2 HOW ECONOMIC TRENDS AFFECT REAL ESTATE Economic trends are an important part of the real estate climate. Economic Trends and the Business Cycle An economic trend is a pattern of related continuing changes in some aspect of the economy. The most important economic issues are noted here: 1. 2. National: The balance of foreign trade, commodity price levels, and change in the annual gross domestic product (defined below under Real Estate Demand Factors). Local: Plant production, employment, construction activity, deed recordings, and the general volume of business. Statistical information on the economy is available from a number of sources, most now on the Internet. Cycles 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Many important changes in the economy are cyclical in nature. For example, business prosperity often increases, stabilizes, and then declines to a recession. Recovery leads to a period of growing prosperity, starting the cycle again. Some economic changes repeat in a seasonal pattern caused by weather or social customs. The real estate cycle may be evidenced in the changes in the number of new subdivision lots, amount of new construction, and volume of real estate sales. Short three-to-four-year real estate cycles seem to relate to the cost and availability of money. Long real estate cycles seem to have more complex origins (i.e. real estate collapse of 2007). Real Estate Supply Factors Some of the more important supply factors in real estate are listed here. Housing Supply The national supply of 135 million housing units (circa-2014) is constantly affected by: 1. 2. Decrease from disaster, abandonment, demolition, and conversion to other uses. Increases from new construction, conversion and remodeling. Protecting the condition of the existing supply is a major issue. New Construction Activity 1. 2. 3. 4. The volume of new construction usually follows the business cycle. It is a good index of the health of the real estate industry. Increase in construction costs generally reduces construction activity. Energy-efficient heating, cooling, and insulating systems are causing an overall upward trend in costs; but are necessary to meet consumer demands. Product substitution (e.g., the trend toward replacing wood framing material with less costly materials), along with engineering enhancements, helps keep costs under control. 5-3 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline The Supply of Vacant Land 1. 2. 3. Political and social changes influence the availability and cost of vacant land. Impacted by environmental protection, “no-growth”, and subdivision reform laws. Affected by increased costs for public approval and development. Real Estate Demand Factors Population Population increases usually mean higher real estate values. Important demographic issues include: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Increase or decrease in population at a given location Composition or make-up of households Birth rates Age and sex groups Occupations Income levels Migration and immigration patterns Purchasing Power Purchasing power studies tend to concentrate on several factors: 1. a. Birth rates b. Mortality rates c. Migration d. Worker-participation rates 2. Changes in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Representing the value of all domestic goods and services produced in the country, the GDP is a gauge of the strength of our economy. 3. Estimates of “disposable income.” This means per-capita income after taxes. Disposable income projections can indicate potential demand for real estate. The projections are usually based on: a. Employment b. Level of wages c. Family income d. Rate of taxes 4. a. Consumer prices, growth, and inflation: Consumer price index changes and city and industrial growth trends b. Inflation vs. growth in disposable income 5. a. The size of the national labor force. Annual change predictions are made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, using census information on: Availability of mortgage financing, usually a function of: Personal savings levels b. General prosperity c. The monetary and fiscal policies of government 5-4 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline Federal Government Activity The government makes use of programs involving real estate to pursue many of its social and economic goals. Housing and Urban Development Programs Agencies that encourage low-rent housing, new construction, and urban renewal include: 1. 2. 3. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) The Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA or Fannie Mae) The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Energy and the Environment Regulations of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy are designed to: 1. 2. 3. 4. Control the quality of the environment by requiring environmental impact reports and enforcing anti-pollution standards. Conserve existing energy sources and promote new ones. Promote use of solar heating systems, energy-efficient appliances, and minimum insulation standards (i.e. energy efficient). Green building and sustainable design practices are encouraged and rewarded. Governmental Banking and Monetary Policy The Federal Reserve Bank (“The Fed”) regulates the availability of money and credit, in order to stabilize the economy and control inflation, recession, and unemployment. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insures consumer deposits at banks, helping provide funds for real estate financing. Fiscal Policy Recession, inflation, and unemployment are also controlled by the taxation and spending powers of government. Real estate and business are sometimes favored with certain tax incentives such as: 1. 2. 3. Home interest deductions on income tax Interest and depreciation deductions for real estate investments Other well-publicized “tax-reform” programs 5.3 THE ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES OF VALUATION Real estate is both a form and a source of wealth. 1. 2. As a form of wealth, real estate competes with other goods and services. As a source of wealth, real estate combines with other economic forces and agents to produce income and other amenities for its users. Economic principles define and predict basic market patterns. This is true in the consumption as well as in the development of real estate. Principles of Real Estate Marketability 5-5 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline The following principles that relate to marketability primarily help us understand the procedures and methods of the sales comparison and cost approaches to value. Substitution The value of any replaceable property tends to equal its cost of replacement or the price of a substitute. This principle underlies all three approaches to value. Conformity A reasonable degree of conformity results in maximum value. A lack of market conformity in size, style, quality, or use can be detrimental to value (i.e. over-improvement). Progression and Regression When a property does not conform in size or quality, its value tends to seek the level of the surrounding properties. Change Change is eternal. Real estate markets and values are influenced by the many physical, social, economic, and political changes that constantly occur at various degrees and rates. Supply and Demand Real estate prices tend to increase when effective demand exceeds supply, and they tend to decrease when supply is greater than demand. Competition Market demand generates profits, and profits encourage competition. In turn, competition holds down profits because new supply tends to overshoot demand, which sometimes leads to “ruinous” competition. Principles of Real Estate Productivity The following principles that relate to productivity assist us primarily in understanding the various techniques associated with the income approach to value. Agents of Production All real estate production (rental income, for example) depends on or results from the use of labor, coordination, capital, and land. Surplus Productivity, Balance, and Contribution Income that is available to land after the other economic agents have been paid for is known as the “surplus of productivity.” A proper balance of the agents maximizes the income available to land. The value of any agent is determined by its contribution to the whole. Increasing and Decreasing Returns The income and other benefits from real estate may increase by adding capital improvements. But the greatest increase occurs only up to the point of balance in the four agents of production. Beyond that point, added expenditures don’t result in proportional added value or income. 5-6 Basic Real Estate Appraisal, 9th Edition Chapter 5 Lecture Outline Highest and Best Use, Consistent Use The most profitable and likely use of a property is its highest and best use. If land is not put to such use, the principle of consistent use requires that the appraiser recognize this fact in valuing the existing structures, and that land and improvements must both be appraised on the basis of the same use. [Instructor: Highest and best use will be covered in Chapter 6.] Anticipation Value is the present worth of future benefits, whether they are in the form of income or intangible amenities. The principle of anticipation is fundamental to the income approach to value. CHAPTER SUMMARY [Instructor: You may refer back to your outline to summarize, or review the following terms.] IMPORTANT TERMS AND CONCEPTS Agents of production Amenities Demand Demography Economic forces Fiscal policy Gross domestic product (GDP) Monetary policy Monetary theory Over-improvement Physical forces Political forces Principle of anticipation Principle of change Principle of competition Principle of conformity Principle of increasing and decreasing returns Principle of progression and regression Principle of substitution Principle of supply and demand Principles of surplus productivity, balance, and contribution Purchasing Power Real estate cycle Scarcity Secondary market Social forces Supply Surplus of productivity Transferability Utility REVIEWING YOUR UNDERSTANDING [Instructor: See end of text chapter for student review questions.] PRACTICAL APPLICATION This chapter does not relate directly to the preparation of a class appraisal; however, it may be helpful to review the information entered for the prior chapter, and to also consider what data will be needed next. STUDENT EXERCISES [Instructor: Suggested True/False questions are available to use for Chapter 5.] Suggested Discussion, Discussion Post, or Essay Exercise: Ask students to find a recent and local real estate related news article that they believe demonstrates one or more of the value influences, economic trends or economic principles of real estate valuation covered in Chapter #5 of the textbook. Ask them to (1) identify the name of the specific influence, trend or principle demonstrated by the news item; and (2) briefly explain in their own words why you think the news item specifically fulfills the above objective – see (1). Students should provide a copy of, or Internet link to, the news item. 5-7