Download Scott Large_Climate change indicators

Indicators of climate change and
climate impact on the biophysical
environment
4 August 2014
Scott Large
OUTLINE
• Chemical and physical climate change
• How will these changes influence marine
ecosystems?
• Data considerations
• What are indicators of this change?
Changes in the physical and chemical
conditions of global oceans
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
Doney et al 2012 Annual Review of Marine Science
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
Bindoff et al 2007 IPCC Report
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
• Direct effects of changing ocean temperature and
chemistry
• Physiological functioning (e.g., productivity,
behavior, etc)
• Population and community-level changes
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
Marine species shift at different rates and directions
because they closely track local climate velocities (rate
and direction that climate shifts)
Pinsky et al 2013 Science
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
1995-2017
2080-2099
• + 30% in subtropical gyre biome area
• - 34% temperate biome area
• - 28% upwelling biome area
Polovina et al 2011 ICES Journal of Marine Science
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
Temperature
•Extent of winter ice cover controls summer cold
bottom water
•Creates boundary between arctic and subarctic
demersal communities
•Decreasing sea ice results in changing community
composition and structure
Mueter and Litzow 2008 Ecological Applications
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
• Upwelling brings CO2-rich waters from the ocean
interior to the shelf, adding to the anthropogenic CO2
• Enhances dissolution of calcium carbonite
• Some calcifying groups may be vulnerable
Bednaršek et al. 2014 Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Biological and ecological response to changes
in physical and chemical conditions
CO2
Temperature Acidity
Sea Ice Ocean Heat Sea level Stratification
Fay et al In review
Summary of predicted changes
Physical/Chemical
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Temperature
Circulation
Stratification
Nutrient input
Oxygen content
Ocean
acidification
Biological
– New
environments
– Altered dispersal
patterns
– Changes in
species
interactions
– Invasion
– Extinction
Community
– Altered structure
– Altered diversity
– Novel
ecosystems
Data considerations
What makes high quality data?
• Internally consistent
• Range spans natural
variability (spatial &
temporal)
• Precision and variance
estimable & reasonable
What makes useful data
• Directional
• Sensitive to change
• Represents the
phenomenon of interest
• Unambiguous
How climate change indicators are
measured
Bindoff and Willebrand 2007 IPCC
Dierrsen 2010 PNAS
How climate change indicators are
measured- Remote Sensing
• Remote Sensing
– Detection of electromagnetic energy from aircraft or
satellites
• Spectra range from optical to microwave
– Physical properties must be inferred from intensity and
frequency distribution of received radiation
• Measure probable limiting factors
– Temperature, sea ice extent, salinity, etc
• Measure biotic processes
– Primary production estimates (Chlorophyll a)
Turner et al. 2003 Trends in Ecology and Evolution
How climate change indicators are
measured- Remote Sensing
Advantages
• Vast spatial coverage
– Practical for remote
locations
• “Rapid” temporal
resolution
• “Big picture” observations
• Compatible with GIS
Disadvantages
• Temporal coverage
– Limited to past few decades
– “Fly-over” limitations
• Require clear-sky
conditions (some)
• Requires validation
• Multiple explanations for
changes in ocean color
• Depth limitations
– Visible depth averaged: 10100m
– Infrared: top few µm
How climate change indicators are
measured – In situ
• Reconstructed data
– ERSST v3b (extended reconstructed Sea Surface
Temperature)
• Global monthly SST from many national and
international databases
• 1850s to present (gridded, monthly data)
www.ncdc.noaa.gov
How climate change indicators are
measured – In situ
• Continuous
plankton recorder
planetearth.nerc.ac.uk
http://www.coastalwiki.org/wiki
Edwards et al. 2006 Limnology and Oceanography
How climate change indicators are
measured – Fishery independent
• Scientific survey
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Size
Production
Diversity
“Canary” species
Henry B. Bigelow- NOAA.gov
How climate change indicators are
measured – Fishery independent
Shin et al 2010 ICES Journal of Marine Science
How climate change indicators are
measured – Fishery dependent
• Log books, weigh-outs,
observer records, etc
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Size
Exploitation
Species composition
Etc…
NOAA picture archives
Polovina et al 2009 Fishery Bulletin
Summary
Physical/Chemical
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–
–
–
–
–
Temperature
Circulation
Stratification
Nutrient input
Oxygen content
Ocean
acidification
Biological
– New
environments
– Altered dispersal
patterns
– Changes in
species
interactions
– Invasion
– Extinction
Community
– Altered structure
– Altered diversity
– Novel
ecosystems
Questions / Discussion?
Selected References
Dierssen, H. M. 2010. Perspectives on empirical approaches for ocean color remote sensing of chlorophyll in a changing
climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107:17073-17078.
Doney, S. C., M. Ruckelshaus, J. E. Duffy, J. P. Barry, F. Chan, C. A. English, H. M. Galindo, J. M. Grebmeier, A. B. Hollowed, and
N. Knowlton. 2012. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. Annual Review of Marine Science 4.
Edwards, M., D. Johns, S. Leterme, E. Svendsen, and A. Richardson. 2006. Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms
in the northeast Atlantic. Limnology and Oceanography 51:820-829.
Fay, G., J.S. Link, J. Hare. Assessing the effects of ocean acidification in the Northeast US using an end-to-end marine
ecosystem model. In Review at Global Change Biology.
Pinsky, M. L., B. Worm, M. J. Fogarty, J. L. Sarmiento, and S. A. Levin. 2013. Marine Taxa Track Local Climate Velocities.
Science 341:1239-1242.
Polovina, J. J., J. P. Dunne, P. A. Woodworth, and E. A. Howell. 2011. Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and
contraction of the temperate and equatorial upwelling biomes in the North Pacific under global warming. ICES Journal
of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 68:986-995.
Polovina, J. J., et al. (2009). "Increases in the relative abundance of mid-trophic level fishes concurrent with declines in apex
predators in the subtropical North Pacific, 1996–2006." Fishery Bulletin 107(4): 523-531.
Turner, W., S. Spector, N. Gardiner, M. Fladeland, E. Sterling, and M. Steininger. 2003. Remote sensing for biodiversity
science and conservation. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 18:306-314.
Shin, Y.-J., et al. (2010). "Using indicators for evaluating, comparing, and communicating the ecological status of exploited
marine ecosystems. 2. Setting the scene." ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil 67(4): 692-716.