Download Doggett Keynote Part I

THE NEW GLOBAL WORLD ORDER
What The Emergence of China, India and Brazil Means for You
John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer
Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy
McCombs School of Business
Senior Research Fellow, IC2 Institute
University of Texas at Austin
[email protected]
www.jndoggett.com
November 12, 2010
We Are In The Eye of a S.I.P.
Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary
• “A strategic inflection point is a time in
the life of a business [or a country] when
its fundamentals are about to change.
That change can mean an opportunity to
rise to new heights. But it may just as
likely signal the beginning of the end.”
• Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive
Deep Water Horizon
27,000 Abandoned Wells . . .
..
Who is the Enemy?
Four Words Say It All
IT’S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!
Deficits Forever . . . ?
The World’s Debt Cycle
Greece is Just The Beginning
The World Is Upside Down
Japan Had A Lost Decade
The Worst Job Loss Since WW II
What Will We Make in the Future?
If One Fails To Learn From History
Regaining Their Place in History
EMERGING FROM THE MIST
At the End of WW II
• Europe and Asia had suffered unimaginable
destruction.
• Most of the factories of our competitors had
been destroyed.
• For a brief period in history, American
manufacturing firms were the only game in
town.
Assume is a Very Dangerous Word
• We assumed that Third World Countries
would always be dirt poor colonies.
• We assumed that Third World Countries
would never be able to produce innovative
products that could compete with our
products.
• We Were Wrong On Both Counts.
Be Careful What You Wish For
• We told the world that our way of life was
better than Communism or Socialism.
• CNN and Hollywood showed the world an
irresistible vision of American Life.
• Then the Unthinkable happened.
– On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall Fell
– On Christmas Day, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist.
• We had won the Cold War.
• And most of the world wanted to live like US.
Birth of the BRICs
• In 2001, as the Internet Bubble was collapsing
and the stock market was imploding,
Goldman Sachs predicted that four countries
would dominate global economic activity in
the 21st Century.
• Brazil
• Russia
• India
• China
The Axis of the Future
Is Goldman Sachs Crazy?
• 6,100% Annual Inflation (1994)
• Collapse of the Ruble (1998)
• Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991)
• The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
Largest Countries By Population
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
China
1,330,141,295 (slightly smaller than the US)
India
1,173,108,018 (slightly more than 1/3 the size of the US)
United States
310,232,863 (6.25% of the earth’s land mass = 424,378,888)
Indonesia
242,968,342 (slightly less than 3X the size of Texas = 25 million)
Brazil
201,103,330 (slightly smaller than the US)
Pakistan
184,404,791 (slightly less than 2X size of California = 37 million)
Bangladesh 156,118,464 (slightly smaller than Iowa = 3 million)
Nigeria
152,217,341 (slightly more than twice the size of California)
Russia
139,390,205 (approximately 1.8 times the size of the US )
Japan
126,804,205 (slightly smaller than California)
Mexico
112,468,855 (slightly less than three times the size of Texas)
Philippines
99,900,177 (slightly larger than Arizona = 6.6 million)
Vietnam
89,571,130 (slightly larger than New Mexico = 2 million)
CIA World Factbook –November 11, 2010
National GDP in 2009
Country
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
GDP
United States $ 14,140,000,000,000
- 2.6%
China
$ 8,748,000,000,000
Japan
$ 4,150,000,000,000
India
$ 3,570,000,000,000
Germany
$ 2,810,000,000,000
United Kingdom $ 2,128,000,000,000
Russia
$ 2,110,000,000,000
France
$ 2,097,000,000,000
Brazil
$ 2,013,000,000,000
Italy
$ 1,739,000,000,000
Mexico
$ 1,465,000,000,000
South Korea
$ 1,364,000,000,000
0.2%
Spain
$ 1,362,000,000,000
- 3.6%
Canada
$ 1,279,000,000,000
CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010
(purchasing power parity)
2009 Growth %
9.1%
- 5.3%
7.4%
- 4.9%
- 4.9%
- 7.9%
- 2.5%
- 0.2%
- 5.1%
- 6.5%
- 2.5%
Elephants Emerging from the Mist
• Total World Population = 6,768,181,146
• BRIC Population = 2,843,742,848 (42%)
• Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans)
• BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%)
• Total World Gross Domestic Product = $58.15 Trillion (Official
Exchange Rate)
• Total World Gross Domestic Product = $69.98 Trillion (Purchasing
Power Parity) (p.p.p.)
• BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 16.44 Trillion (23.5%)
Source: CIA World Factbook – November 11, 2010