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CHRISTINA GYNNÅ OGUZ Legal opium produetion in Afghanistan - no solution D uring the 1990s, Afghanistan established itself as the world's largest source of illicit opium and its deriva- tive, heroin. By the end of the 1990s, Afghanistan provided about 70 per cent of global illicit opium. Today, it accounts for almost 90 per cent. In 1994 the estimated area under opium cultivation was 71 000 hectares. Ten years later it had increased to 131 000 hectares. The most recent opium survey for Afghanistan, published by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in November 2005 indicates a decrease by 21 per cent to 104000 hectares - equivalent to 2.3 per cent ofthe total land used for agriculture. This represents the first reduction in many years and reverses the trend of previous years when opium poppy cultivation expanded into new provinces each year. However, favourable weather conditions and low rates of plant disease resulted in a much higher yield than in the previous year. As aresult, the total potential opium production decreased only margin ally. According to the Senlis Council, an international drug policy think-tank, traditional drug policy responses based on a combination of eradication, alternative livelihood and interdiction have failed to contain the illegal opium threat. Therefore Afghanistan should terminate its opium eradication programme and turn to producing legal opium for medicinal purposes. At the same time, the Senlis Council argues that opium produced for medicine in Afghanistan would meet the needs of developing countries for pain-relief medicines. Would this be a solution for the poor farmers of the war- shattered Afghanistan? And would it mean that many NORDISK ALKOHOL· & NARKOTIKATIOSKRIFT VOL. 23. 2006 ENGLlSH SUPPLEMENT 143 Legal opium produetion in Afghanistan - no solution people, particularly in developing countries, who are now living in chronic pain or dying in pain, would get access to adequate pain relief? There is a global system for the control of narcotic drugs, limiting the produetion and use for medical and scientific purposes. The 1961 United Nations Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs sets out two main provisions for the cultivation of opium pop py: (a) if a party (Le. astate) intends to initiate the produetion of opium it shall take account of the prevailing world need for opium, and (b) it shall not permit the produetion if it may re sult in illicit trafficking in opium. Afghanistan is party to the 1961 Convention and is therefore bound by its provisions. The Karzai Government prohibited the cultivation of opium poppy in 2002. Let us take a look at the two conditions that allow for opium produetion. Is there a need for more opium for the produetion of medicine? And would Afghanistan be able to fulfil the second condition, to prevent illicit trafficking? The international drug control system has been put in place not only to prevent the abuse of and trafficking in narcotic drugs, but also to ensure that there is an adequate supply of narcotic drugs for medicinal and scientific purposes. The International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) examines on a regular basis is sues affecting the demand for and supply of opiates used for medicinal and scientific purposes with the aim of maintaining a balance between demand and supply. In 2003, developing countries - which represent about 80 per cent of the world's population - accounted for only about 6 per cent of global consumption of mor144 NORDISK ALKOHOL· & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT phine. The Board has on numerous occasions highlighted the faet that many peopIe, especially in developing countries, do not have access to effective pain relief, and has encouraged governments to take steps to increase the medical use of opiates in order to meet their real needs for the tre atment of pain. Why do people in developing countries not have access to effective pain relief treatment? Is it because of an undersupply of opium and, if so, ean this undersupply be alleviated by making the illicit opium poppy produetion in Afghanistan licit? A look at the supply side indicates that there is no shortage of opiate raw materials for medicinal and scientific purposes. According to the INCB Narcotic Drugs report, the total worldwide produetion of opiate raw materials has exceeded the demand for them for the past five years. Furthermore, the stocks of opiate raw materials have continuously increased over the same period of time and now amounts to double the amount consumed annually. This is a re sult of increases in total area cultivated as well as technological advances. However, it is expected that in the near future, global produetion of opiate raw materials will be only slightly higher than the level of global demand, thanks to the faet that producing countries have taken action to reduce produetion to reflect the global demand for those raw materials - in line with the provisions of the 1961 Single Convention. The current levelof legal produetion of morphine is approximately 350-450 tons. For comparison, the levelof potential illicit opium produetion in Afghanistan is 4100 tons, which is equivalent to at least 500 tons of morphine according to the VDL. 23.2006 ENGLlSH SUPPLEMENT LegaL opium produetion in Afghanistan - no soLution UNODC, maybe even more. Thus, Afghanistan alone would be able to produce as much as "the prevailing world need for opium" were it licensed to produce opium for medicinal and scientific purposes. What about the second condition in the 1961 UN Convention: not to perrnit the produetion if it may result in illicit trafficking in opium? Currently, only India produces opium for international trade and medicine. Diversion is a big problem in the country, although not openly admitted by the government. Other countries such as Turkey, abandoned the produetion of opium because of frequent diversion of opium to illicit channeIs. Nowadays, the limited number of producers of opiate raw materials (e.g. Australia, France, Spain) produce poppy straw instead of opium. Poppy straw is an intermediate produet different from opium which is not as likely as opium to give rise to an abuse problem. Would Afghanistan under present conditions be able to establish a licensing system with adequate control? After more than two decades of conflict, military activities, refugee movements, collapse of national, provincial and local forms of governance, lack of management and institution al capacity, Afghanistan is facing enormous challenges for the future. The rule of law has to a large extent been displaced by the 'rule of the gun'. Proceeds from drug trafficking are used by warlords and others in power at local and regionallevels to fund their activities and maintain their independence from the central government. It is simply not feasible that opium licensing would result in reinforced law enforcement and justice capacity building efforts, as suggested by the Senlis Coun- cil. It would be the wrong way round! The rule of law must firs t be established. Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world with up to 700 children under the age of five dying every day due to mostly preventable causes. Agriculture will continue to play a significant role in its development and the profitability of the agricultural sector will depend on investments in roads, water, power and health care. A study authored by the Afghan Government in 2004 with assistance from the Asian Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, UNDP and the World Bank, concluded that Afghanistan would need US $27.5 billion in external funds over the coming seven years in order to move forward with the reconstruction and to avoid regressing into chaos and lawlessness. It is far too early to expect a lasting decrease in illegal opium cultivation and produetion in Afghanistan. Over 80 per cent of Afghanistan's population relies directly on the natural resource base to meet its daily needs. It is true that farmers are dissatisfied with the levelof development assistance. The country needs financial and expert support from outside to build the infrastructure necessary for agricultural development. It needs investment in education and primary health care. It needs assistance to establish the rule of law. It does not need confusing messages that opium licensing would be a viable alternative to alternative livelihood and eradication. Finally, let us turu to the is sue of insufficient and inadequate pain treatment. N o information exists to suggest that the supply of opiates for medical use is insuf- NORDISK AlKOHOl- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT VOl 23.2006 ENGLlSH SUPPLEMENT 145 Legal opium produetion in Afghanistan - no solution ficient. So far, the pharmaceutical industry needs are increasing. More than 50 mil- has been able to respond to the increase lion people die throughout the world each in demand - especially for morphine and year. The majority - four fifths - af these certain other narcotic drugs - that has oc- deaths are in developing countries. Huge curred since the mid-1980s, largelyas a investment is needed to ens ure that when result af efforts by governments, the WHO advanced treatment is no longer effective, and health professionals to improve relief ar when it is inaccessible for any reason, af pain due to cancer. Still, many, many people can have access to symptomatic people do not have access to the medi- treatment and pain relief. The obstacles cines they need, especially among low-in- are political, financial and a lack af under- come and disadvantaged populations. For standing and training in the adequate tre- example, based an WHO estimates, more atment af pain. These are the factors that than half af the population in the poorest need attention. Licensing opium poppy parts af Africa and Asia lack access to es- cultivation in Afghanistan is not the solu- sential drugs. tion. The lack af access to medicines that are safe, effective and af good quality is a complex issue. Many gavernments reduce their health budgets because af inadequate resources, while at the same time the 146 NORDISK ALKOHOL· & NARKOTIKATIOSKRIFT Christina Gynnå Oguz, Dep. National Drug Policy Co-ordinator Mobilisering mot narkotika Vasagatan 8-10, S-1 03 33 Stockholm E-mail: [email protected] VOL. 23.2006 ENGLlSH SUPPLEMENT