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University Research Priority Program
Global Change and Biodiversity
Integrating Mechanisms
of Interactions, Feedback
and Scale
Global Change and Biodiversity
Biodiversity is both a response variable affected by global change drivers and a factor
modifying ecosystem processes and services that are essential to human well-being.
Many of the key challenges that face humanity this century are due to the impacts
of global change on biodiversity and on the functioning and stability of ecosystems
and the natural services that they provide.
Previously, biodiversity was viewed as something that passively responds to changes
in environmental conditions. Our current understanding is that there is a two-way
relationship in which biodiversity can also affect environmental conditions via biotic feedbacks.
Past view
Present view
Global Change
Environment
Species introduction
Land use
Biochemical cycles
Climate
Biodiversity
Biodiversity
Gentic diversity
Diversity of species
Ecosystem and
landscape diversity
Humans
Well-being
Welfare
Security
Freedom
Ecosystems
Biological resources
Cultural values
Regulating services
Changing views on influencing factors of global change and biodiversity: past view with unidirectional
forcing of biodiversity by the environment (left); present view of multidirectional interactions, including feedbacks of biodiversity on environmental variables. These interactions can occur at different scales1.
Recent progress in environmental research has identified the main patterns, trends
and causes of global change:
• climate change,
• land-use change,
• invasive species,
• over-exploitation, and
• pollution.
The various drivers of global change can act simultaneously, but at differing spatio-temporal scales, thus creating the potential for interactions among them. In
addition, feedbacks between biodiversity and environmental change can create
non-linear system dynamics, and such systems can exhibit catastrophic shifts with
little warning.
Interdisciplinary and Visionary
The University Research Priority Program (URPP) Global Change and Biodiversity
builds on the presumption that improved capability to predict the consequences of
changes in drivers will aid improved prediction of the state of the environment, by
using a latitudinal gradient approach with focus on interactions, feedbacks, and scale.
The program proposed activities are bundled in interdisciplinary projects:
• Interactions: Focus on human-environment interactions, as well as how global change drivers multi-directionally affect biodiversity, ecosystems, and humanity.
• Feedback: Mechanisms that relate to positive or negative feedbacks. Where
positive feedbacks usually strengthen the possibility of divergence and therefore are able to find a new equilibrium, negative feedbacks help to maintain
stability in a system, occasionally in spite of external change.
• Scale: Much of the data that scientists collect have a resolution that is much
finer than the larger scale phenomena and processes that are incorporated in
global models. Scaling refers to the extrapolations that are needed to bridge
these gaps.
Our methods link observational and experimental data with theoretical, statistical
and socio-economic modelling approaches as well as qualitative fieldwork and normative analysis. In particular, methods build on existing excellence in remote sensing, biodiversity–ecosystem functioning research, soil science, evolution, human
actors, enviromental justice, physics and statistics while achieving added value by
stimulating inter-disciplinary collaboration to address issues beyond the reach of
single disciplines.
All projects are located in defined experimental systems covering a latitudinal gradient in biodiversity, with a multitude of drivers affecting each site’s condition. Our
experimental systems are located in Siberia, Tibetan Plateau, Lake Zurich, Laegern,
Aldabra, and Borneo.
Biome
Site name
Location
Habitat
change
Climate
change
Invasive
species
Overexploitation
Pollution
(N, P)
↗
↑
Polar (Arctic)
Siberia
70.82N
147.47E
↗
↑
→
Temperate (montane)
grassland
Tibetan
plateau
37.48N
101.21E
↗
↑
→
↗
↑
Inland water
Lake Zurich
47.34N
8.54E
↑
↑
↑
→
↑
Temperate Forest
Laegern
47.48N
8.40E
↘
↑
↑
→
↑
Tropical Semihumid
Aldabra
9.39S
46.21E
→
↑
→
↘
→
Tropical Forest
Borneo
5.09N
117.64E
↑
↑
↑
↗
↑
List of experimental systems serving as reference sites within the
project and their main change drivers. Cell colour indicates the impact
to date of each driver on biodiversity in each biome over the past
50–100 years. The arrows indicate the trend of the impact of the driver
on biodiversity2.
Drivers impact on biodiversity
Over last century
Current trends
Low
↘ Decreasing impact
Moderate → Continuing impact
High
↗ Increasing impact
Very high
↑ Very rapid increase
Summary
The program focuses on understanding feedback mechanisms in coupled systems
of human actors and ecosystems. Our proposed activities are bundled into interdisciplinary projects that will extend current activities into strategically important areas of global change and biodiversity.
Sources
1
Modified after Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
2
Modified after Table 3 (p. 9) of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
Cover photo: Plants of Siberia, Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
Back illustration: Laegern 3D modelling, Reik Leiterer
Contact
URPP Global Change and Biodiversity
University of Zurich
Winterthurerstrasse 190
CH-8057 Zurich
Website: www.gcb.uzh.ch
Twitter: twitter.com/uzh_gcb
Blog: www.uzh.ch/blog/gcb-siberia
Management
[email protected] – Director
[email protected] – Co-Director
[email protected] – Co-Director
[email protected] – Operational Manager
Duration: 12 years (2013 onwards)
Staff: approx. 45 scientists