Download 2016 Winnipeg Economic Highlights: Annual Review

WINNIPEG
ECONOMIC
HIGHLIGHTS
2016 Annual Review
ECONOMIC INDICATOR HIGHLIGHTS
Winnipeg (Census Metropolitan Area)
IN THIS ISSUE
1 Economic Indicator Highlights
2 Winnipeg Economic Highlights
4 Select City Comparisons
6 Labour Force Indicators
7 Real Estate Indicators
8 Other Indicators
2016
% Change
from 2015
Population (Annual)
811,900
2.2
Employment
425,000
0.2
6.5
0.5
Real GDP at Basic Prices
(Annual $ Millions) *
$37,628
2.3
Retail Sales (Annual $ Millions) *
$11,970
5.7
Personal Disposable Income
Per Capita (Annual) *
$35,204
0.6
128.1
1.5
$2,001
25.4
$302,727
10.1
4,054
-7.9
Unemployment Rate (%)
Consumer Price Index (2002=100)
Total Building Permit Values ($ Millions)
Average Residential House Price
(Single-Family Detached)
Total Housing Starts
*Conference Board of Canada annual projections. Subject to adjustment in subsequent projections.
Sources: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada, WinnipegREALTORS®
OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC GROW TH
Steady growth in Winnipeg’s diverse economy throughout
2016 has resulted in an eighth consecutive year of
expansion. Winnipeg’s real gross domestic product (GDP)
grew 2.3 per cent compared to 2015. Job growth was stable
overall due to strong gains in various industries despite
losses in other areas. Investments in new construction
posted gains in 2016; residential and nonresidential building
permit values increased over the previous year. Winnipeg’s
office market showed signs of improvement through
declining vacancies and rising average rents. Winnipeg and
Manitoba’s retail sales generated moderate growth in 2016,
and the province’s average weekly earnings kept pace with
the national average.
According to the Conference Board of Canada in its Winter
2017 Metropolitan Outlook, Winnipeg’s real GDP grew 2.3
per cent in 2016 compared to 2015. Winnipeg achieved the
third-strongest economic growth among major metropolitan
areas in Western Canada. Nationally, Winnipeg
outperformed the national average of 1.3 per cent, ranking
fifth among Canada’s largest metropolitan areas. In 2016,
Winnipeg extended its record of consecutive real GDP
growth to eight years due to output growth in the following
key areas of the local economy: primary industries and
utilities (4.6 per cent); transportation and warehousing (4.2
per cent); finance, insurance and real estate (2.8 per cent);
wholesale and retail trade (3.1 per cent); and business
services (2.3 per cent). Winnipeg is forecasted to achieve
comparable economic growth in 2017 (currently projected
at 2.4 per cent).
WINNIPEG CMA
LABOUR MARKET
Census metropolitan area (CMA) refers to the
municipalities assigned by Statistics Canada on
the basis of labour market and commuting criteria,
comparable to the U.S. metropolitan statistical area
(MSA). The Winnipeg CMA is comprised of the city
of Winnipeg plus 10 adjacent municipalities. The
city of Winnipeg represents a significant majority of
the economic activity and over 90 per cent of the
population in the CMA.
Winnipeg experienced steady job growth in 2016. The
overall number of those employed grew 0.2 per cent
from the previous year. Despite moderate job losses in
some key areas of the economy, including manufacturing
and transportation/warehousing, employment gains
were realized in other industries which help keep the
overall employment picture positive. Industries posting
the largest job gains in 2016 included primary industries
and utilities (19 per cent), information and culture (8.8 per
cent), construction (6.1 per cent) and business services
(2.6 per cent). Winnipeg’s unemployment rate edged up to
6.5 per cent in 2016 from six per cent in 2015. Nationally,
employment grew 0.7 per cent, and the unemployment rate
stood at seven per cent.
Winnipeg is located in the heart of Canada at the
geographic centre of North America and has the
most diverse economy of all major cities in Canada.
Winnipeg is an economic hub, a major trade and
transportation centre, an arts and culture centre, and
a city of creativity and diversity.
INVESTMENT AND CONSTRUCTION
Key industries include advanced manufacturing;
aerospace; agribusiness; creative industries; energy
and environment; financial services; information,
communications and technology (ICT); life sciences;
tourism; and transportation and distribution.
After a soft construction market in 2015, building
construction activity recovered in 2016. Building permit
values grew 25.4 per cent to over $2 billion, the secondstrongest growth rate among major cities in Canada.
Growth of building permit values was led by the industrial
market, where values advanced by more than 250 per cent
compared to 2015; also significant was the solid growth of
commercial building permit values (50.8 per cent). Selected
high-profile investments in Winnipeg during 2016 include:
Lake Winnipeg
»» True North Square in downtown Winnipeg (valued
at $400 million)
St. Francis Xavier
»» GE Aviation’s upgrade of its engine-testing facility, extending
St. Clement
Rosser
Headingley
W. St.
Paul
E. St. Paul
its strategic value from strictly cold-weather testing to
include a wider range of tests (valued at $26 million)
Springfield
Winnipeg
»» The 385,000-square-foot Outlet Collection of Winnipeg
mall (valued at $200 million)
Tache
Macdonald
Richot
»» Osborne Place (a 32,000-square-foot office building)
»» The Qualico Training Centre’s massive 120,000-squarefoot sports training complex and performance centre
(valued at $26 million)
2
»» The Skilled Trades and Technology Centre located on the
main campus of Red River College (valued at $60 million)
»» The University of Winnipeg’s downtown student residence
complex (valued at $27 million)
According to Cushman & Wakefield, Winnipeg’s office market
experienced declining vacancy rates and increasing rental
rates in Class A and B office buildings. Class C properties
posted lower rental rates in 2016 relative to the previous
year. The overall office vacancy rate in 2016 was 7.4 per
cent, down 1.5 percentage points from 2015. Overall, the
average rental rate was $13.36, an increase of 1.1 per cent
compared to 2015.
The residential market posted more moderate gains in
2016. Building permit values grew 2.4 per cent compared to
2015. WinnipegREALTORS® reports that total dollar volume
generated from MLS home sales increased seven per cent
to $3.8 billion in 2016, and residential unit sales improved
six per cent. The average selling price of a single-family
detached home in Winnipeg continues to rise, up 10.1 per cent
to $302,727 in 2016, and yet Winnipeg still ranks as Canada’s
most affordable major metropolitan area to buy a home.
Winnipeg is one of only two major cities in Canada where
average residential prices remain in the $300,000 range.
PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS
Manitoba’s merchandise exports totaled $13.4 billion
in 2016, a drop of 2.1 per cent from the previous year.
Import demand from Manitoba was strongest in Southeast
Asia, most notably South Korea, where provincial exports
increased 122 per cent compared to 2015. Exports to the
United States, which accounted for 68 per cent of all exports,
were down 3.6 per cent (or $9.2 billion) from 2015.
Economic Development Winnipeg Inc.
810 – One Lombard Place
Winnipeg, MB R3B 0X3
204.954.1997
[email protected]
www.economicdevelopmentwinnipeg.com
Disclaimer: Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. endeavours to
provide accurate information gathered from a variety of sources
but makes no representation or guarantee as to the reliability
and accuracy of such information.
Close to one-half of all exports were destined for the Midwest
(47.3 per cent); however, export growth was strongest to
the Southern United States (31.9 per cent). Nationally,
merchandise exports were down 0.9 per cent compared to
2015. The dollar value of exports from most provinces declined
in 2016, and the regions most impacted were those most
dependent on the energy sector. Manitoba’s manufacturing
shipments experienced an increase of 1.2 per cent in 2016,
as the sector continues to recover. The Conference Board of
Canada is forecasting Winnipeg’s manufacturing output to
grow by two per cent in 2017.
OTHER INDICATORS
According to the Conference Board of Canada, retail sales
recorded growth of 5.7 per cent in Winnipeg and 5.3 per
cent in Manitoba during 2016. Statistics Canada’s tracking
reveals Manitoba’s retail trade experienced moderate
growth of 4.6 per cent during 2016, whereas retail sales
rose 3.7 per cent nationally. According to Statistics Canada,
Winnipeg’s consumer price index—which measures
the change in cost of living—rose 1.5 per cent in 2016
compared to 2015. Nationally, the consumer price index
grew 1.8 per cent.
Manitoba’s average weekly earnings across all industries
increased one per cent to $889 in 2016 compared to 2015,
ranking Manitoba sixth for earnings growth among all
provinces. Nationally, average weekly earnings increased 0.5
per cent to $956.
Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. (EDW) is the
lead economic development agency for Winnipeg.
EDW facilitates investment promotion and attraction,
capacity building, tourism attraction and the
management of market data. By utilizing competitive
intelligence and by fostering relationships with
industry leaders, government officials and community
stakeholders, EDW evaluates potential opportunities
and innovation drivers to develop key industries and
define opportunities for future economic growth. EDW
also supports targeted sector, community and social
development, and promotes Winnipeg’s diverse
economy and high quality of life.
Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. • Promoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
3
Toronto 4.1 Vancouver 4.0 Victoria 2.6 Winnipeg 2.3 Hamilton 2.3 WINNIPEG 2.2 REVIEW Halifax ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS: 2016 ANNUAL Opawa-­‐
Quebec City 2.0 1.6 SELECT CITY CEOMPARISONS
Montreal 1.3 ANNUAL REVIEW WINNIPEG CONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS: 2016 0.2 Regina Real Gross Domestic Product, Projected Annual Per Cent Change Saskatoon -­‐0.1 2015-­‐2016, Selected Metropolitan Areas Edmonton -­‐1.7 SELECT CITY COMPARISONS Calgary -­‐1.7 Projected Real Gross Per Cent 3.0 Change 4.0 4.1 5.0 Toronto -­‐2.0 -­‐1.0 Domestic 0.0 Product, 1.0 Annual 2.0 2015-­‐2016, S
elected M
etropolitan A
reas Vancouver 4.0 Per Cent Change SELECT CITY COMPARISONS
Victoria Projected Real Gross
Domestic Product
Annual Per Cent Change
2015-2016
Selected Metropolitan Areas
SOURCE: CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA, WINTER 2017
Building Permit Values
Total Residential &
Nonresidential
Annual Per Cent Change
2015-2016
Selected Metropolitan Areas
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
2.6 Source: Winnipeg Conference Board of Canada, Winter 2017 Toronto 2.3 4.1 Hamilton 2.3 Building Vancouver Permit Values, Total Residential and Nonresidential Annual Per Cent 4.0 Change 2.2 Halifax 2015-­‐2016, Selected Metropolitan Areas Victoria 2.6 Opawa-­‐
2.0 Winnipeg 2.3 Quebec Victoria City 1.6 30.4 Hamilton 2.3 Montreal 1.3 Winnipeg 25.4 Halifax 2.2 Regina 0.2 Opawa-­‐Garneau 20.7 Opawa-­‐
2.0 Saskatoon -­‐0.1 Quebec 1.6 12.0 Québec CCity ity Edmonton -­‐1.7 ´
Montreal 1.3 Montreal 6.4 Calgary -­‐1.7 Regina 0.2 Toronto -­‐0.3 -­‐2.0 -­‐1.0 0.0 -­‐0.1 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Saskatoon Hamilton -­‐5.5 Per Cent Change Edmonton -­‐1.7 -­‐7.3 Vancouver Calgary -­‐1.7 Edmonton -­‐9.7 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Winter 2017 -­‐1.0 0.0 -­‐11.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Halifax -­‐2.0 Cent Change Annual Per Cent Change Building PRegina ermit Values, Total Residential aPer nd N
onresidential -­‐14.3 2015-­‐2016, Selected Metropolitan Areas Calgary -­‐24.3 Source: Conference Board of Canada, Winter 2017 Saskatoon Victoria -­‐30.4 30.4 Building Permit otal Residential Annual er Cent Change -­‐35.0 Values, T-­‐20.0 -­‐5.0 and Nonresidential 10.0 25.0 P25.4 40.0 Winnipeg 2015-­‐2016, Selected Metropolitan Areas Per Cent Change 20.7 Opawa-­‐Garneau Québec City 12.0 30.4 Victoria Source: Statistics Canada Montreal Winnipeg Toronto Opawa-­‐Garneau 6.4 Hamilton Québec City Vancouver Montreal -­‐9.7 -­‐14.3 -­‐24.3 -­‐30.4 Saskatoon -­‐35.0 6.4 -­‐0.3 -­‐11.7 -­‐5.5 -­‐7.3 -­‐9.7 -­‐11.7 -­‐20.0 Calgary Source: Statistics Canada 12.0 -­‐7.3 Regina Vancouver Calgary Edmonton -­‐35.0 Regina 20.7 -­‐5.5 Edmonton Toronto Halifax Hamilton Saskatoon Halifax 25.4 -­‐0.3 -­‐24.3 -­‐5.0 -­‐14.3 10.0 25.0 40.0 Per Cent Change -­‐30.4 -­‐20.0 -­‐5.0 10.0 25.0 40.0 Per Cent Change Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. • Promoting
an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
Source: Winnipeg
Statistics as
Canada 4
1.0 Opawa-­‐Garneau Vancouver Halifax Victoria Edmonton Toronto Employment Growth
Annual Per Cent Change
2015-2016
Selected Metropolitan Areas
0.7 Hamilton Regina 1.7 1.3 0.1 Quebec City Opawa-­‐Garneau 1.0 -­‐0.7 1.0 -­‐0.8 Saskatoon Halifax Calgary Edmonton 0.8 -­‐1.9 Winnipeg -­‐3.0 Hamilton -­‐2.0 0.7 -­‐1.0 0.0 -­‐0.7 Quebec City Saskatoon Source: Statistics Canada 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.1 Per Cent Change 4.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Per Cent Change Québec City 4.6 Victoria Average Regina Unemployment Rate 2016, Vancouver Selected Metropolitan Areas 5.3 5.3 5.5 6.1 Hamilton Québec City 4.6 6.2 Halifax Victoria 5.3 6.5 Winnipeg Regina 5.3 6.5 Opawa-­‐Garneau Vancouver 5.5 6.8 Saskatoon Hamilton 6.1 7.0 Toronto Halifax 6.2 7.2 Edmonton Winnipeg 6.5 7.8 Montreal Opawa-­‐Garneau 6.5 9.1 Calgary WINNIPEG ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS: 2016 ANNUAL REVIEW Saskatoon 6.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Toronto 7.0 SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
Per Cent Edmonton Consumer Price Index, Annual Per Cent Change Montreal 2015-­‐2016, Selected Source: Statistics Canada Metropolitan Areas SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
6.0 Source: Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index
Annual Per Cent Change
2015-2016
Selected Metropolitan Areas
5.0 -­‐0.8 -­‐1.9 Calgary -­‐3.0 -­‐2.0 -­‐1.0 Average Unemployment Rate 2016, Selected Metropolitan Areas Average Unemployment
Rate 2016
Selected Metropolitan Areas
3.7 0.2 Winnipeg Montréal SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
5.0 0.8 Calgary Quebec City Montreal 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.8 3.0 7.8 9.1 4.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Per Cent 1.3 Calgary Source: Statistics Regina Canada 7.2 1.4 Winnipeg 1.5 Edmonton 1.5 Opawa-­‐Garneau 1.6 Halifax 1.6 Saskatoon 1.6 2.1 Victoria Vancouver 2.7 Toronto 2.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Per Cent Change Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. • Source: PromotingStatistics WinnipegCas
an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
anada 5
LABOUR FORCE INDICATORS
WINNIPEG
2016
2015
% CHANGE
Population – 15 Years or Older (000)
662.2
652.3
1.5
Labour Force (000)
454.4
451.0
0.8
Employment (000)
425.0
424.0
0.2
Unemployment (000)
29.5
27.0
9.1
Not in Labour Force (000)
207.9
201.3
3.2
POINT CHANGE
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.5
6.0
0.5
Participation Rate (%)
68.6
69.1
-0.5
Employment Rate (%)
64.2
65.0
-0.8
MANITOBA
2016
2015
% CHANGE
Population – 15 Years or Older (000)
999.1
987.2
1.2
Labour Force (000)
674.8
674.2
0.1
Employment (000)
633.4
636.3
-0.5
Full-time Employment (000)
510.7
514.7
-0.8
Part-time Employment (000)
122.7
121.7
0.8
Unemployment (000)
41.5
37.9
9.5
Not in Labour Force (000)
324.2
313.0
3.6
POINT CHANGE
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.2
5.6
0.6
Participation Rate (%)
67.5
68.3
-0.8
Employment Rate (%)
63.4
64.5
-1.1
Canada
2016
2015
% Change
29,587.0
19,443.0
18,083.1
14,610.9
3,472.2
1,359.9
10,144.1
29,279.8
19,280.5
17,949.2
14,559.6
3,389.6
1,331.3
9,999.3
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.4
2.4
2.1
1.4
Population – 15 Years or Older (000)
Labour Force (000)
Employment (000)
Full-time Employment (000)
Part-time Employment (000)
Unemployment (000)
Not in Labour Force (000)
POINT CHANGE
Unemployment Rate (%)
7.0
6.9
0.1
Participation Rate (%)
65.7
65.9
-0.2
Employment Rate (%)
61.1
61.3
-0.2
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. • Promoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
6
REAL ESTATE INDICATORS
Building Permit Values: Winnipeg ($ Millions)
2016
2015
% Change
$2,001.4
$1,596.0
25.4
Residential
$997.4
$974.0
2.4
Single-Family
$611.0
$512.0
19.3
Multi-Family
$386.3
$462.0
-16.4
$1,004.0
$622.0
61.4
Industrial
$191.7
$51.1
274.9
Commercial
$588.7
$390.1
50.8
Institutional and Governmental
$224.2
$180.8
24.0
Housing Activity: Winnipeg Residential Market
2016
2015
% Change
MLS Average Residential Price (Single-Family Detached)
$302,727
274,933
10.1
MLS Residential Unit Sales
13,632
12,897
5.7
MLS Dollar Volume ($ Millions)
$3,766
$3,507
7.4
Winnipeg Office Market: Net Rental Rate
2016
2015
% Change
Class A Office Space (Downtown)
$20.26
$19.93
1.7
Class B Office Space
$14.51
$14.08
3.1
Class C Office Space
$11.09
$11.18
-0.8
Total
$13.36
$13.22
1.1
Winnipeg Office Market: Overall
Vacancy Rate (%)
2016
2015
Point Change
Class A Office Space (Downtown)
4.6
4.8
-0.2
Class B Office Space
7.0
9.1
-2.1
Class C Office Space
9.5
11.0
-1.5
Total
7.4
8.9
-1.5
Total Residential and Nonresidential
Nonresidential
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA, WINNIPEGREALTORS®
SOURCE: CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
Published by Economic Development Winnipeg Inc. • Promoting Winnipeg as an ideal place to live, work, invest and visit
7
OTHER INDICATORS
Manufacturing Shipments ($ Millions)
2016
2015
% Change
Canada
$51,219.1
$50,693.6
1.0
Manitoba
$1,446.8
$1,429.7
1.2
2016
2015
% Change
Canada
$44,379.4
$42,781.9
3.7
Manitoba
$1,595.2
$1,524.8
4.6
2016
2015
% Change
Canada
$521,371.8
$524,940.3
-0.7
Manitoba
$13,437.2
$13,723.7
-2.1
2016
2015
% Change
Consumers
913
774
18.0
Businesses
12
11
9.1
Average Weekly Earnings
2016
2015
% Change
Canada
$956
$952
0.5
Manitoba
$889
$880
1.0
Consumer Price Index
2016
2015
% Change
Canada - All Items
128.4
126.6
1.8
Winnipeg - All Items
128.1
126.6
1.5
Financial (YTD Average)
2016
2015
% Change
Exchange Rate ($CAD in $USD)
0.76
0.78
-2.6
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
Retail Trade ($ Millions)
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
Merchandise Exports ($ Millions)
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA (BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BASIS), MANITOBA BUREAU OF STATISTICS
Winnipeg Bankruptcies
SOURCE: INDUSTRY CANADA
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA
POINT CHANGE
Prime Rate (%)
2.7
2.8
-0.1
10-Year Benchmark Bond Yield (%)
1.3
1.5
-0.2
2016
2015
% Change
4,016,643
3,778,036
6.3
SOURCE: BANK OF CANADA
Airport Passenger Volumes
Total Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers
SOURCE: WINNIPEG AIRPORTS AUTHORITY
Credit Rating - Winnipeg
2016
Standard & Poor’s
AA
Moody’s Investors Services
Aa2
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