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Ecology, 89(4), 2008, pp. 1023–1031 Ó 2008 by the Ecological Society of America BEYOND THE ECOLOGICAL: BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS ALTER NATURAL SELECTION ON A NATIVE PLANT SPECIES JENNIFER A. LAU1 Center for Population Biology, One Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA Abstract. Biological invasions can have strong ecological effects on native communities by altering ecosystem functions, species interactions, and community composition. Even though these ecological effects frequently impact the population dynamics and fitness of native species, the evolutionary consequences of biological invasions have received relatively little attention. Here, I show that invasions impose novel selective pressures on a native plant species. By experimentally manipulating community composition, I found that the exotic plant Medicago polymorpha and the exotic herbivore Hypera brunneipennis alter the strength and, in some instances, the direction of natural selection on the competitive ability and anti-herbivore defenses of the native plant Lotus wrangelianus. Furthermore, the community composition of exotics influenced which traits were favored. For example, high densities of the exotic herbivore Hypera selected for increased resistance to herbivores in the native Lotus; however, when Medicago also was present, selection on this defense was eliminated. In contrast, selection on tolerance, another plant defense trait, was highest when both Hypera and Medicago were present at high densities. Thus, multiple exotic species may interact to influence the evolutionary trajectories of native plant populations, and patterns of selection may change as additional exotic species invade the community. Key words: biological invasion; competition; diffuse selection; herbivory; Hypera brunneipennis; Lotus wrangelianus; Medicago polymorpha; natural selection; plant defense; plant–insect interaction. INTRODUCTION Native communities continually face novel ecological pressures. Many of these pressures arise from anthropogenic alteration of the environment and include such widespread phenomena as global climate change, changes in land use, and the spread of exotic species. Because these environmental changes can influence communities ecologically, affected natives may also respond evolutionarily, provided that there is genetic variation in the traits that influence fitness under the novel environmental conditions (reviewed in Reznick and Ghalambor 2001, Strauss et al. 2006). This adaptive evolution may allow natives to persist in the face of environmental change, but depends on levels of genetic variation, the strength of selection, population demographics and gene flow, and correlations between traits and/or between fitness in different environments (e.g., see Etterson 2004). Furthermore, even if natives are able to adapt to novel ecological threats, evolutionary responses may result in altered interactions with other species, prompting a cascade of ecological and evolutionary changes that impact the larger community. Manuscript received 30 November 2006; revised 14 May 2007; accepted 19 July 2007. Corresponding Editor: M. D. Eubanks. 1 Present address: Kellogg Biological Station and Department of Plant Biology, Michigan State University, 3700 East Gull Lake Drive, Hickory Corners, Michigan 49060 USA. E-mail: [email protected] Exotic species can directly affect native species via competition, predation, or by altering abiotic conditions (Gordon 1998, Mack et al. 2000, Ehrenfeld 2003, Levine et al. 2003), and they can indirectly affect natives by changing native species’ interactions with other organisms in the community (e.g., Schmidt and Whelan 1999, Grosholz et al. 2000, Irwin et al. 2001, Suarez and Case 2002, Rand and Louda 2004, Lau and Strauss 2005). Because biological invasions result in novel species interactions, one would expect to see intensified selection on traits relevant to the new interactions (Vermeij 1996, Parker et al. 1999), whether these interactions are direct or indirect. Studies using historical records or comparisons between invaded and uninvaded environments have documented correlations between evolutionary changes in native species and biological invasions (e.g., Zimmerman 1960, Carroll and Boyd 1992, Singer et al. 1993, Kiesecker and Blaustein 1997, Phillips and Shine 2004, Callaway et al. 2005; reviewed in Strauss et al. 2006). Little work, however, has experimentally quantified how exotic species influence the magnitude and direction of natural selection on native community members (but see Rose et al. 2005). Interactions between pairs of species take place in the context of a broader community, and interactions between a focal native species and an abundant invader could be affected by other co-occurring native and exotic species alike. Thus, patterns of natural selection on the native may depend not only on the presence of a particular invasive but also on the presence and 1023 1024 JENNIFER A. LAU abundance of other exotic (or native) community members. For simplicity, here I focus on a native plant species’ interactions with an exotic plant and an exotic herbivore. The predicted evolutionary response of the native species to one of the exotics will be affected by the second exotic species (i.e., selection will be ‘‘diffuse,’’ sensu Janzen [1980], Fox [1981]) if (1) native traits involved in interactions with the exotic plant are genetically correlated with native traits that mediate interactions with the exotic herbivore; (2) the presence of one exotic species alters the strength or likelihood of interactions between the native and the second exotic species; or (3) the effects of the two exotics on the relationships between traits and fitness in the native are not additive (Iwao and Rausher 1997, see also Strauss and Irwin 2004, Strauss et al. 2005). Several studies have investigated such ‘‘diffuse’’ selection on plants resulting from interactions between different herbivore species (Pilson 1996, Stinchecombe and Rausher 2002), between herbivores and pollinators (Gomez 2003), and between herbivores and competitors (Tiffin 2002; see Strauss and Irwin 2004 for a review). Because there is a dizzying array of potential multispecies interactions in any community, diffuse selection may be common, and the effects of an exotic species on the evolution of a cooccurring native will likely differ across communities that vary in composition. Similarly, this complexity may be compounded over time, and selection pressures may change as more exotic species enter a community. I report here the results of a series of experimental removals of exotic species and comparisons between invaded and uninvaded natural populations demonstrating that patterns of natural selection on native plant traits depend on the presence and abundance of both an exotic plant competitor and an exotic herbivore. A prior study on this system (Lau and Strauss 2005) documented the ecological impacts of invasion by the exotic plant Medicago polymorpha (hereafter Medicago) and the exotic insect herbivore Hypera brunneipennis (hereafter Hypera) on the native California annual Lotus wrangelianus (hereafter Lotus). This previous study found that increased densities of Medicago and Hypera decreased Lotus survival and seed production. These fitness effects were often non-additive and largely resulted because the presence of Medicago increased Hypera folivory on the native Lotus (Lau and Strauss 2005). Here, rather than focusing on the effects of these invasions on average Lotus fitness, I assessed how the invasions influenced the relative fitness of specific Lotus genotypes and how Medicago and Hypera altered associations between Lotus traits and relative fitness. Because nonadditive ecological effects on mean fitness do not necessarily result in non-additive evolutionary effects, it is necessary to quantify the association between traits and relative fitness in environments with different combinations of interacting species to determine whether selection is diffuse (Strauss et al. 2005). Thus, to assess how Medicago and Hypera interact to influence evolutionary Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 4 trajectories, I transplanted known Lotus genotypes into (1) plots where I experimentally manipulated both Medicago and Hypera density; and (2) plots in environments that were naturally invaded or uninvaded by Medicago where I experimentally manipulated Hypera density. My results address the following questions: (1) Does the invasive Medicago alter natural selection on the competitive ability of the native Lotus? (2) Does the exotic insect herbivore Hypera affect natural selection on Lotus anti-herbivore defenses? and (3) Does Medicago interact with Hypera to create novel patterns of natural selection on Lotus traits? I predicted that selection on Lotus anti-herbivore defenses would be greater when Hypera was abundant and that selection on Lotus competitive ability would be greater when Medicago was present. Furthermore, because the presence of Medicago strengthened the ecological interaction between Hypera and Lotus (Lau and Strauss 2005), I predicted that the presence of Medicago would indirectly increase selection on anti-herbivore defenses by increasing Hypera densities. MATERIALS AND METHODS Study system Lotus wrangelianus Fischer and C. Meyer (Fabaceae) is a native plant abundant in open grasslands throughout the McLaughlin Reserve in Napa County, California, USA. Medicago polymorpha L. (Fabaceae) likely invaded California in the late 1800s from the Mediterranean region (de Haan and Barnes 1998) and now reaches high densities in many Lotus populations. The native Lotus and the exotic Medicago are both small, primarily selfing, winter annuals that germinate with the first rains in fall and flower in late spring. Both Lotus and Medicago are attacked by Hypera brunneipennis (Curculionidae: Coleoptera), the Egyptian alfalfa weevil. Hypera is an exotic species that spread to Northern California from North Africa in the 1960s, approximately 80 years after the invasion by Medicago (van den Bosch and Marble 1971). Hypera is the most abundant herbivore in this system; while a weevil budgaller and a hymenopteran seed predator also feed on Lotus, they damaged less than 26% of the buds and 3% of the seeds over the duration of the experiment. Lotus in areas invaded by Medicago typically receive twice as much Hypera folivory than Lotus in uninvaded areas (Lau and Strauss 2005). The strong effects of Medicago and Hypera on Lotus are reflected in the fact that Lotus seed production increased 10-fold (23.6 6 8.1 vs. 2.9 6 0.8 [mean 6 SE]) when both Medicago and insect herbivore densities were reduced (Lau and Strauss 2005). Experimental design I tested whether Medicago and Hypera alter selection on Lotus traits, either independently or interactively, by measuring selection intensities on Lotus populations of known genotypes transplanted into the replicated April 2008 EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES OF INVASION treatment plots used in Lau and Strauss (2005). In these plots, Medicago and insect herbivore abundance (primarily Hypera) were manipulated in a four-treatment, fully crossed factorial design (Medicago present/absent by insecticide/no insecticide). Treatments were randomly assigned to 3 3 3 m plots, and 11 replicates of each treatment combination were established across three naturally invaded Lotus populations. In these populations, Medicago and Lotus reached densities of 2100 individuals/m2, and Hypera densities were also high. At one census, weevil larvae were observed feeding on ;25% of surveyed Lotus plants, and naturally occurring Lotus in the control plots typically experienced herbivory levels where 56% of leaflets were damaged by Hypera. This level of herbivory is substantial and reduces Lotus seed production by approximately 80% (Lau and Strauss 2005). Manipulation of Medicago and Hypera abundance.—I manipulated Medicago presence by removing all Medicago seedlings from the 22 Medicago-removal plots. Weeding treatments were imposed in December 2002, immediately after the first bout of Medicago germination and again in January 2003 to remove later germinating seedlings. Removing Medicago did not alter the growing environment for Lotus substantially, since the Medicago seedlings were so small at the time of removal (Lau and Strauss 2005). Additionally, plots were weeded prior to transplanting the genotypes used in this experiment. The weeding treatments were very effective and reduced Medicago aboveground biomass by 96% (Medicago biomass [mean 6 SE]: Medicago-removal plots, 2.21 6 7.05 g/m2; control plots, 54.72 6 31.57 g/m2). I manipulated herbivore abundance by spraying the insecticide treatment plots with the generalist insecticide Sevin (Bayer CropScience, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA) and the no-insecticide plots with a water control. Insecticide was applied every two to four weeks from February to April, the period of most intense Hypera folivory. Sevin does not directly affect Lotus growth (Lau and Strauss 2005), but did reduce Hypera damage to Lotus by 58%. Thus, damage from Hypera was substantially reduced, but was not eliminated by the insecticide treatment. Neither the Medicago-removal nor insecticide treatments had strong impacts on nontarget plant species (Lau and Strauss 2005), and because both Medicago and Lotus are highly selfing, any non-target effects of insecticide on the pollinator community likely had minimal fitness effects on either species. Comparisons between naturally invaded vs. uninvaded Lotus populations.—To determine how selection on Lotus traits differs between naturally invaded (Medicago present) and naturally uninvaded (Medicago absent) environments across substantial variation in Hypera abundance, seven insecticide treatment plots and seven no-insecticide plots were also established in two naturally uninvaded Lotus populations, in addition to the Medicago-presence plots in the invaded populations 1025 already described. Both invaded and uninvaded sites were non-serpentine grasslands dominated by similar plant communities; however, naturally invaded and uninvaded populations could differ due to environmental differences that are correlated with invasion by Medicago. For example, invaded populations tended to be slightly wetter and less serpentine than uninvaded populations (J. Lau, personal observation). Estimates of Lotus traits.—I transplanted seedlings of known full-sib families into a 0.25-m2 subplot in the center of each treatment plot. Parental plants were collected as seed from 10 different Lotus patches on the McLaughlin Reserve. Patches were distinct but were relatively close together (;0.25–1 km apart). All families were reared in a greenhouse for one generation to minimize maternal effects. Seeds were initially germinated in a growth chamber (in the absence of herbivores) in December 2002, and one plant from each of 73 full-sib families was transplanted into each treatment plot in January 2003. Because of mortality prior to and within two weeks after transplanting, 2659 seedlings were included in the experiment. In March, I censused each transplant for herbivory (measured as the proportion of leaflets with chewing damage from Hypera). Because leaflets are relatively small (;4–15 mm in length), this measure of herbivory is likely a good correlate of the amount of photosynthetic material removed, but may underestimate the actual amounts of leaf area removed at high compared to low damage levels. Survival to flowering was monitored weekly from April to May, and all fruits were collected at the end of the growing season (June) to estimate fecundity (total seed production). I measured the intensity of selection on three Lotus traits: resistance to herbivory, tolerance to herbivory, and competitive response to Medicago. Measuring selection requires obtaining estimates of trait values and fitness. Resistance is the ability of a plant to avoid or minimize herbivory, and I estimated resistance in the no-insecticide treatment plots as 1 (proportion of leaflets damaged), a standard operational definition of resistance (Simms and Rausher 1989). Tolerance refers to a plant’s ability to regrow and reproduce after herbivore attack (Strauss and Agrawal 1999), and competitive response is a measure of the degree to which competition with Medicago decreases Lotus fitness. Both tolerance and competitive responses were measured from reaction norms, which compare phenotypes of related individuals growing in different environments. Tolerance was estimated for each family as the log response ratio of Lotus seed production in the no-insecticide vs. insecticide treatment plots, i.e., ln([relative seed production in the no-insecticide treatment]/ [relative seed production in the insecticide treatment]). Competitive response was estimated analogously as the log response ratio of Lotus seed production in the presence vs. absence of Medicago. Calculation of selection intensities.—Selection was measured in six different environments: naturally unin- 1026 JENNIFER A. LAU vaded populations, Medicago-removal plots in naturally invaded populations, and Medicago-presence plots in naturally invaded populations, in both the presence and absence of insecticide. Selection intensities measure the composite selection acting on a trait from both direct selection and from indirect selection acting on correlated traits. Selection intensities for Lotus competitive ability, tolerance to herbivory, and resistance were calculated in each treatment plot, using logistic regressions with survival as the fitness measure (Janzen and Stern 1998). To explain more fully, because the experiment included 58 treatment plots (11 in each of the Medicago removal 3 insecticide treatments in invaded populations, plus an additional seven plots per insecticide treatment in naturally uninvaded populations), I performed separate regressions for each treatment plot and estimated selection intensities on Lotus traits 58 times independently. In each logistic regression, the standardized trait value for each family was included as a continuous predictor variable; survival was included as a binomial response variable (PROC GENMOD; SAS, SAS Institute, Cary, North Carolina, USA). Survival differed across treatments ranging from a low of 12% in the Medicago present, no-insecticide treatment to a high of 51% in naturally uninvaded populations. Because fitness estimates were used to estimate competitive ability and tolerance and were also used as response variables in the selection analyses, the predictor and response variables are not independent (Mauricio et al. 1997, Tiffin and Rausher 1999). A common way of dealing with this problem is to split the dataset, using one part to estimate competitive ability and tolerance and the other part to estimate fitness. Accordingly, I used the individual within the focal plot (i.e., the plot for which I was calculating selection differentials) to estimate fitness (the response variable in the selection analysis), while siblings in all other plots were used to estimate tolerance and competitive ability (predictor variables in the selection analyses). This process was repeated for each plot. Thus, for the calculated selection differentials in each plot, only one individual per family was used to estimate fitness, as in a traditional phenotypic selection analyses, but many individuals in a given family were used to estimate the trait value, as in a genotypic selection analysis. While estimating selection based on the fitness of a single individual per family may increase error, the selection estimates themselves are replicated across the 7–11 plots within each treatment. Selection also was measured as the covariance between relative seed production and standardized trait value (Price 1970, Lande and Arnold 1983, Rausher 1992). Patterns of selection estimated from the logistic regressions (survivorship) were qualitatively similar and are theoretically similar in magnitude and direction to those estimated as the covariance between relative seed production and the plant trait (Janzen and Stern 1998). Because only a few plants set seed in some treatment plots, the covariances between traits and seed produc- Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 4 tion were calculated using the family’s relative fitness averaged across all plots in a given treatment, and only results from the selection analyses using survival are presented in the main text. Results obtained from selection analyses using seed production as the fitness measure are presented in the Appendix. Transformed logistic selection coefficients that can be used in microevolutionary equations to predict evolutionary responses (Janzen and Stern 1998) are also presented in the Appendix. Statistical analyses Because selection intensities were calculated independently in each treatment plot, I can compare selection across replicated environments that differ in the presence of Medicago and the abundance of Hypera. Other recent studies have also used replicated experimental manipulations to rigorously examine how putative selective agents impact predicted evolutionary trajectories (Bolnick 2004, Moeller and Geber 2005; see also Wade and Kalisz 1990). To determine whether selection on Lotus depends on the abundance of Hypera and Medicago, I conducted ANOVAs for each native plant trait (PROC MIXED, SAS) in which the selection intensities for each plot were used as independent response variables (Wade and Kalisz 1990, Bolnick 2004). Medicago-removal treatment, insecticide treatment, and the interaction were included as fixed factors, and population was included as a random blocking factor. When not significant, population and all nonsignificant interactions were removed from the analyses to increase power (see Table 1 for full model results). I also used ANCOVA to further examine interactions between herbivore abundance and Medicago presence on selection on Lotus traits: I replaced the categorical insecticide factor with the mean herbivory intensity (i.e., the mean proportion of leaflets damaged) experienced by naturally occurring Lotus plants in each plot. Because the insecticide treatments reduced, but did not eliminate Hypera herbivory, this ANCOVA accounted for the variation in herbivory among treatment plots (mean herbivory intensity per plot ranged from 0.08 to 0.52 in the insecticide treatment and from 0.17 to 0.98 in the no-insecticide treatment). The ANCOVA also allowed me to determine whether the effects of Medicago on selection on Lotus were primarily due to Medicago boosting Hypera densities or whether other mechanisms (i.e., genetic correlations between traits involved in interactions with Hypera and Medicago or non-additive effects of Medicago and Hypera on patterns of selection) also contributed to any observed diffuse selection. Two plots (both in the Medicago present, no-insecticide treatment) were excluded from all analyses because no test plants survived to flower. This extreme mortality appeared to result from high amounts of herbivore damage and highlights the potential for these invaders to impose strong selection on the native Lotus. April 2008 EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES OF INVASION 1027 TABLE 1. ANOVA of the effects of Medicago presence, insecticide treatment, and random effects on the intensity of selection on Lotus tolerance to herbivory, resistance to herbivory, and competitive response. Tolerance Source df F A) Medicago removal ANOVA Medicago removal Insecticide Medicago 3 insecticide Random effects Population 1, 37 1, 37 1, 37 0.01 6.26 1.11 B) Nested ANOVA Medicago presence Insecticide Medicago 3 insecticide Random effects Population 1, 30 1, 30 1, 30 2 v 0.65 0.36 1.97 4.16 Resistance P df F 0.92 0.02 0.30 1, 37 1, 37 1, 37 1.59 3.60 1.40 0.32 0.55 0.17 0.05 0.0 v 0.50 2 0.0 1, 29 1, 29 1, 29 0.55 0.58 0.01 Competitive response P df F 0.21 0.07 0.24 1, 36 1, 36 1, 36 0.14 0.91 1.33 0.50 0.46 0.45 0.92 0.0 0.50 v2 0.71 0.35 0.26 1.4 1, 2 1, 28 1, 28 P 0.11 0.17 2.57 0.12 0.76 0.69 0.12 2.7 0.05 Notes: Chi-square statistics based on log-likelihood ratio tests are presented for random factors. Part (A) shows the effects of manipulating Medicago presence by weeding in naturally invaded populations. Part (B) is a nested ANOVA, with population nested within Medicago presence, and compares selection intensities in naturally invaded Lotus populations vs. naturally uninvaded Lotus populations. Significant differences (P 0.05) are shown in bold; the dagger ( ) indicates a marginally insignificant effect. To determine whether selection differs in naturally invaded vs. uninvaded populations, I used nested ANOVA. The selection differential in each plot was the response variable, insecticide treatment and population invasion status were fixed factors, and population nested within invasion status was a random factor. In all analyses, degrees of freedom for fixed factors were estimated with the Sattherthwaite approximation. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Direct effects of Medicago and Hypera on selection on Lotus As predicted, insect herbivores selected for higher levels of Lotus defenses (Fig. 1A, B, Table 1A). Averaged across both Medicago treatments in naturally invaded populations, selection for increased resistance and tolerance was more intense when insect herbivores were abundant than in the insecticide treatment plots (selection differential [mean 6 SE] for resistance, no insecticide 0.15 6 0.14, insecticide 0.24 6 0.14; F1,37 ¼ 4.0, P ¼ 0.05; for tolerance, no insecticide 0.20 6 0.13, insecticide 0.18 6 0.12; F1,38 ¼ 6.13, P ¼ 0.02). Additionally, selection tended to favor lower levels of resistance and tolerance when herbivory was reduced with insecticide, suggesting that anti-herbivore defenses are costly for Lotus (Fig. 1A, B). Hypera likely was responsible for the insecticide treatment effects; while other insect herbivores were relatively rare in 2003, Hypera was very abundant and caused much damage in the control (Medicago-present, no-insecticide) plots. I failed to detect evidence that Medicago altered selection on Lotus competitive response. While selection for increased competitive response tended to be more intense in the presence of Medicago than in Medicagoremoval plots or naturally uninvaded populations, these differences were not statistically significant (Fig. 1C, Table 1). Interactions between Medicago and Hypera on selection on Lotus I detected few statistically significant interactions between Medicago-presence and insecticide treatments on selection on Lotus traits (Table 1A, B). In the comparison of naturally invaded vs. uninvaded populations, however, there was a significant interaction between Medicago-presence and the insecticide treatment on selection on Lotus tolerance (Table 1B); in the absence of insecticide, selection on tolerance tended to be more intense in naturally invaded populations than uninvaded populations (selection differential: invaded 0.33 6 0.15, uninvaded 0.10 6 0.17; t1,27 ¼ 1.83, P , 0.08). In addition, the difference in selection on Lotus tolerance between the no-insecticide and insecticide treatments tended to be greatest, and was only significant, in the presence of Medicago (Fig. 1A). In the absence of insecticide, there was also a trend for more intense selection on resistance in invaded populations when Medicago was experimentally removed compared to plots where Medicago remained present (selection differential: Medicago present 0.11 6 0.21, Medicago removed 0.37 6 0.19; t1,35 ¼ 1.70, P , 0.1). Interestingly, in the insecticide treatments where Hypera herbivory was reduced; selection differentials on both defense traits were very similar in magnitude across all Medicago treatments. This result implies that any effects of Medicago on patterns of selection on Lotus antiherbivore defenses are likely indirect and mediated by the herbivore community. The direction of the Medicago effect, however, differed depending on the type of defense. For tolerance, the trend was in the direction predicted based on the ecological effect of Medicago increasing herbivory on Lotus, with Medicago increasing selection. For resistance, the trend was opposite that predicted, and Medicago tended to reduce selection on this defense trait (Fig. 1A, B). 1028 JENNIFER A. LAU FIG. 1. Selection differentials for (A) Lotus tolerance to herbivory, (B) resistance to herbivores, and (C) competitive response in control plots in invaded patches (Medicago present), Medicago-removal plots in invaded patches (Medicago absent), and naturally uninvaded patches (Medicago absent) in insecticide (insects reduced) and no-insecticide (insects present) treatments. Selection differentials measure the total selection on a trait from both direct selection and from indirect selection acting on correlated traits. Positive differentials indicate that genotypes with higher trait values are selectively favored; negative differentials indicate that genotypes with lower trait values are favored. See Materials and methods: Calculation of selection intensities for more detail. LS mean values (6SE) with the same letter are not significantly different (P . 0.05). Only selection on resistance in the Medicago-removal treatment in the absence of insecticide differed significantly from zero. Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 4 The high amount of variation in herbivory across plots within insecticide treatments could have limited my ability to detect significant insecticide treatment effects and interactions between Medicago-presence and insecticide treatments. The ANCOVA explicitly examines how Medicago presence impacts patterns of selection across this continuous range of herbivory. For all traits, I detected significant interactions between the Medicagoremoval treatment and the intensity of herbivory (Table 2); however, it should be noted that when the two plots receiving the highest amounts of herbivory were excluded, these interactions were no longer significant, although the same trends remained. These results suggest that the strength of selection exerted on Lotus by one exotic species (Medicago) may depend on the abundance of a second exotic species (Hypera). For example, high levels of herbivory tended to increase selection on Lotus tolerance, as might be expected; however, this positive relationship only occurred in the presence of Medicago (Fig. 2A). In contrast, increasing herbivory levels only resulted in selection for higher resistance in the absence of Medicago (Fig. 2B). Thus, Medicago appeared to increase selection on tolerance at high damage levels but may decrease selection on resistance. These results suggest that the presence of Medicago may shift the type of plant defense (resistance vs. tolerance) that is favored in the native Lotus. Recent studies in other systems also provide convincing evidence that different defenses (resistance vs. tolerance) may be favored under different environmental conditions (Fornoni et al. 2004). Medicago also interacted with Hypera abundance to alter selection on Lotus competitive response. Over all herbivory intensities, I did not detect selection on competitive response in the absence of Medicago. However, there was a positive relationship between the intensity of herbivory and selection for increased Lotus competitive response when Medicago was present (Fig. 2C). These results provide suggestive evidence that herbivore abundance may mediate the strength of selection on Lotus competitive ability. In this system, diffuse selection may result, in part, from the indirect ecological effect of Medicago increasing Hypera herbivory on Lotus; these types of interactive effects of exotics on natives may be common (e.g., Rand and Louda 2004, see also White et al. 2006). If diffuse selection results entirely from Medicago boosting densities of Hypera, however, then the mean selection intensity on Lotus defense traits should be greater in the presence of Medicago than in the absence of Medicago, as was observed for tolerance, but the relationship between selection and intensity of herbivory should remain constant across Medicago treatments. Instead, I observed significant interactions between Medicago presence and intensity of Hypera herbivory on selection on all traits (Fig. 2). These interactions imply that diffuse selection also results through other mechanisms, such as genetic correlations between Lotus traits April 2008 EVOLUTIONARY CONSEQUENCES OF INVASION 1029 TABLE 2. ANCOVA of the effects of Medicago removal, level of Hypera herbivory, and random effects on the intensity of selection on Lotus tolerance to herbivory, resistance to herbivory, and competitive response. Tolerance Source df F Medicago removal Herbivory level Medicago 3 herbivory Random effects Population 1, 38 1, 36 1, 36 3.30 0.22 4.52 v 2 0.0 Resistance P df F 0.08 0.64 0.04 1, 37 1, 36 1, 37 2.08 5.07 6.93 0.50 v 2 1.1 Competitive response P df F 0.16 0.03 0.01 1, 38 1, 36 1, 37 2.69 7.23 4.49 0.14 v2 P 0.11 0.01 0.04 0.5 0.24 Note: Significant differences (P 0.05) are shown in bold. mediating interactions with Medicago and traits mediating interactions with Hypera or nonadditive effects of Medicago and Hypera on the relationship between Lotus traits and fitness (Iwao and Rausher’s criteria 1 and 3 for diffuse selection described previously). For example, Lotus tolerance and competitive ability tend to be positively correlated (r ¼ 0.31, P , 0.07). While the mechanistic basis of Lotus tolerance and competitive ability are unknown, it is plausible that traits conferring high tolerance also are associated with increased competitive ability (e.g., high growth rates). Regardless of the underlying mechanism, however, the positive correlation between tolerance and competitive ability could result in indirect selection for increased competitive ability in plots that experience high amounts of herbivore damage and could contribute to the observed positive relationship between intensity of herbivory and selection on competitive ability. Thus, while some of the evolutionary consequences of these invasions might be predictable responses to the novel ecological interactions (e.g., selection on tolerance was most intense in areas where Medicago increased herbivory on Lotus), some evolutionary outcomes that result from interactions between exotic competitors and exotic herbivores cannot be predicted based on ecological effects alone, making the long-term consequences of invasion difficult to foresee. These data also illustrate that diffuse selection cannot be identified by only measuring mean fitness effects and ecological outcomes and demonstrate that more trait-based approaches are needed to gain a full understanding of how multiple species interact to influence evolutionary trajectories (Strauss et al. 2005). While similar interactions easily could occur between native species, this example highlights the potential complexities that arise when multiple novel species enter communities and may be particularly applicable to cases where a second strongly interacting exotic species is introduced. Prior work demonstrated that Lotus genotypes collected from heavily invaded sites where both Hypera and Medicago were present at high density tended to have lower competitive abilities, lower tolerance, and lower resistance than Lotus genotypes collected from uninvaded sites, where densities of both invaders were low (Lau 2006). While none of these differences in trait means were statistically significant, the trends for FIG. 2. Relationship between mean herbivory intensity and selection on Lotus (A) tolerance to herbivory, (B) resistance, and (C) competitive response in the presence of Medicago (solid line; solid symbols) and in Medicago-removal plots (dashed line; open symbols). Each symbol represents the selection differential and herbivory intensity in a single treatment plot. Regression coefficients for each treatment are as follows. Tolerance: Medicago present, b ¼ 0.98, P , 0.12; Medicago removed, b ¼0.63, P , 0.18. Competitive response: Medicago present, b ¼ 2.1, P , 0.005; Medicago removed, b ¼ 0.34, P , 0.51. Resistance: Medicago present, b ¼ 0.14, P , 0.83; Medicago removed, b ¼ 1.77, P , 0.005. 1030 JENNIFER A. LAU reduced mean tolerance and competitive ability in invaded relative to uninvaded populations are in the opposite direction of predicted differences between invaded and uninvaded populations based on the selection analyses described here. When both Hypera and Medicago are present at high density (as in invaded populations since at least 2001 and, likely, for several decades), the selection analyses predict that populations should evolve higher tolerance and, potentially, higher competitive ability than uninvaded populations. The discrepancy between the observed and predicted differences in trait values between invaded and uninvaded populations could result because of the high error surrounding estimates of selection or because selection is temporally variable. However, one other possible explanation is that while Lotus genotypes may have adapted to the initial Medicago invasion, they have not yet responded to invasion from the later arriving Hypera (Lau 2006). Temporal variation in Hypera abundance, constraints on selection due to other herbivore community members that were rare in 2003 but that sometimes reach high densities (Lau and Strauss 2005), or inadequate time for adaptive changes to occur could all contribute to the lack of observed evolutionary response to the combined presence of Hypera and Medicago. Strong ecological perturbations, such as global climate change and biological invasions, frequently result in evolutionary changes in natives (e.g., Zimmerman 1960, Carroll and Boyd 1992, Singer et al. 1993, Kiesecker and Blaustein 1997, Reale et al. 2003, Phillips and Shine 2004, Callaway et al. 2005). Others have used comparisons between invaded and uninvaded environments and temporal changes in the phenotypes of natives to document evolutionary responses to invasion by exotic species. The experimental approach detailed here allows for investigation of one of the mechanisms (altered patterns of natural selection) potentially underlying these evolutionary responses. Adaptation by natives to exotics could minimize the impact of exotic species on the persistence of natives, by reducing strong ecological effects of invasion. However, even if evolutionary responses minimize the demographic impact, the resulting native populations may be very different (genetically, and as a result, phenotypically) than they were prior to the invasion. Thus, it is plausible that these evolutionary responses could affect how the native species interacts with other community members, resulting in further perturbations to the community. Understanding how exotic species influence patterns of natural selection on natives is the first step to determining how native species will respond evolutionarily to biological invasions and to comprehending the longterm impacts of exotic species on native communities. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS R. Hutchinson, M. Lau, P. Lau, E. Renquist, and C. Simonson assisted with fieldwork, and suggestions from S. Strauss, K. Rice, M. Stanton, A. Agrawal, D. Bolnick, M. Ecology, Vol. 89, No. 4 Brock, M. Katz, A. McCall, E. Preisser, P. Tiffin, L. Yang, and two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the manuscript. 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