Download Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0

Abduction, Part C: Confirmation and Falsification
Practice Question Set—WITH correct answers marked
Fall 2015 Semester
Instructor: Dr. Robert Tierney
1.
Scientists have observed a phenomenon called “supercallafragilistic intergalactic waves.” Dr. Fronkensteen has
developed his theory, The Theory of Teleomorphic Perturbations, to explain the occurrence of this phenomenon.
Fronkenstein’s theory does offer an explanation of why supercallafragilistic intergalactic waves occur. It is also
the case that The Theory of Teleomorphic Perturbations is the only scientific theory currently on offer that
explains supercallafragilistic intergalactic waves. On the basis of these considerations, we can say that Dr.
Fronkenstein’s theory is _____________________.
(a) Valid
(b) Invalid
(c) Strong
(d) Weak
(e) None of the above
ANSWERS (a) AND (b) MAKE NO SENSE, AS THESE TERMS APPLY ONLY TO DEDUCTIVE INFERENCES.
TO CHOOSE ANSWER (c) IS TO COMMIT “THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN FALLACY.” SEE TIERNEY,
“THEORY CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §III.C., FINALLY, WE HAVE NO BASIS FOR
SELECTING ANSWER (d).
2.
In Question 1, the answer choice I selected was _____________________.
(a) Valid
(b) Invalid
(c) Strong
(d) Weak
(e) None of the above
(Note: This question simply requires that you answer it as stated. It is simply a way of making Question 1 worth two points,
instead of one point.)
The Virus X Scenario
According to Professor Frink’s theory (the “Frink Theory”), cancer of the liver is caused by Virus X. The Frink
Theory entails that, if one injects cancerous liver cells into a vervet monkey, in every case it will evoke an
immune response in the monkey. This is because the injected cancerous liver cells will contain the virus, and the
vervet monkey’s immune system always responds to the presence of Virus X.
Experiments are carried out in which cancerous liver cells are injected into a large sample of vervet monkeys
(the “Vervet Experiments”). Proper observations are made such that there are no errors in these observations.
We will assume that the Frink Theory is fixed, i.e. it will not be tinkered with to accommodate any problematic
observations.
3.
With respect to The Virus X Scenario, assume that, in the Vervet Experiments, an immune response is evoked in
all the monkeys injected with cancerous liver cells. In that case, what is the effect of the Vervet Experiments on
the Frink Theory?
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
THE THEORY IS CONFIRMED, BUT CONFIRMATION DOES NOT PROVE A THEORY TRUE.
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Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0--WITH CORRECT ANSWERS MARKED
4.
In Question 3, the answer choice I selected was _____________________.
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
(Note: This question simply requires that you answer it as stated. It is simply a way of making Question 3 worth two points,
instead of one point.)
5.
With respect to The Virus X Scenario, assume that, in the Vervet Experiments, an immune response is NOT
evoked in any of the monkeys injected with cancerous liver cells. In that case, what is the effect of the Vervet
Experiments on the Frink Theory?
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES SPECIFIED IN THIS CASE, FALSIFICATION CONCLUSIVELY PROVES A
THEORY FALSE. SEE TIERNEY, “THEORY CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §II.
6.
In Question 5, the answer choice I selected was _____________________.
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
(Note: This question simply requires that you answer it as stated. It is simply a way of making Question 5 worth two points,
instead of one point.)
7.
Professor Smith’s theory is that there is a planet orbiting the star called “Alpha Centauri.” She predicts (and her
theory entails) that if a planet is orbiting a star, such as Alpha Centauri, then it will cause that star to “wobble.”
She further predicts (and her theory entails) that one could observe this wobble during time T1 if one observes
Alpha Centauri with the Googletastic Telescope. (Assume that no auxiliary hypotheses will be added to modify
Smith’s theory. Also assume that all relevant observations are made accurately and correctly, and that all results
are reported accurately and correctly.) Smith observes Alpha Centauri with the Googletastic Telescope during
time T1. She does see Alpha Centauri wobble. In such case, what should we say of Smith’s theory?
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
THE OBSERVATION CONFIRMS THE THEORY; HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT PROVE THE THEORY TRUE.
CONFIRMATION IS NEVER CONCLUSIVE. WE MADE THIS POINT IN CLASS AND IT IS IN BOTH THE
SOBER READING AND THE HANDOUT AUTHORED BY YOUR INSTRUCTOR.
8.
In Question 7, the answer choice I selected was _____________________.
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
(Note: This question simply requires that you answer it as stated. It is simply a way of making Question 7 worth two points,
instead of one point.)
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Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0--WITH CORRECT ANSWERS MARKED
9.
Assume the same facts as in Question 7, with one exception: Professor Smith predicts (and her theory entails)
that if a planet is orbiting a star, such as Alpha Centauri, then there is a 70% chance that it will cause that star
to “wobble.” In such case, what should we say of Smith’s theory?
(a) There is a 70% chance that it is true
(b) There is a 70% chance that it is false
(c) There is a 30% chance that it is true
(d) There is a 30% chance that it is false
(e) None of the above
HERE THE THEORY MAY RECEIVE SOME CONFIRMATION VIS-À-VIS COMPETING THEORIES.
HOWEVER, THEORY CONFIRMATION IS A COMPARATIVE MATTER. THIS SCENARIO GIVES US NO
ABSOLUTE MEASURE OF THE PROBABILITY THAT THE THEORY IS TRUE.
10. Assume the same facts as in Question 7, with one exception: When Smith observes Alpha Centauri during time
T1 with the Googletastic telescope she does not see Alpha Centauri wobble. In such case, what should we say of
Smith’s theory?
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
THE THEORY HAS BEEN FALSIFIED, AND FALSIFICATION, UNLIKE CONFIRMATION, IS CONCLUSIVE.
GIVEN THE STIPULATED INFORMATION, THE THEORY HAS BEEN SHOW TO BE FALSE. WE MADE THIS
POINT IN CLASS AND IT IS IN BOTH THE SOBER READING AND THE HANDOUT AUTHORED BY YOUR
INSTRUCTOR.
11. In Question 10, the answer choice I selected was _____________________.
(a) It is confirmed
(b) It is partially falsified
(c) It is conclusively proved true
(d) It is conclusively proved false
(e) None of the above is the single best answer
(Note: This question simply requires that you answer it as stated. It is simply a way of making Question 10 worth two points,
instead of one point.)
12. Assume the same facts as in Question 10, with one exception: Professor Smith predicts (and her theory entails)
that if a planet is orbiting a star, such as Alpha Centauri, then there is a 70% chance that it will cause that star
to “wobble.” In such case, what should we say of Smith’s theory?
(a) There is a 70% chance that it is true
(b) There is a 70% chance that it is false
(c) There is a 30% chance that it is true
(d) There is a 30% chance that it is false
(e) None of the above
HERE THE THEORY HAS NOT BEEN COCLUSIVIELY FALSIFIED. NOR CAN WE ASSIGN A PROBABILITY
TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE THEORY IS FALSE. THE THEORY, IF TRUE, ASSIGNS A PROBABILITY
TO THE OCCURRENCE OF THE EVENT. NOTE THAT THIS IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM THE EVENT
TELLING US THE PROBABILITY THAT THE THEORY IS TRUE. THESE TWO PROBABIITY ASSESSMENTS
ARE INDEPENDENT OF ONE ANOTHER. REMEMBER, FOR ANY GIVEN FINITE SET OF DATA, THERE ARE
A LIIMITLESS NUMBER OF POSSIBLE THEORIES THAT WILL ENTAIL THAT DATE—BUT THIS DOES NOT
MEAN THAT EACH OF THIS LIMITLESS NUMBER OF THEORIES IS TRUE; INDEED, THEY COULD NOT
ALL BE TRUE IN THAT THEY ARE DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER AND NOT MUTUALLY CONSISTENT.
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Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0--WITH CORRECT ANSWERS MARKED
The Thalaron Scenario
The planet Thalaron orbits the distant star, Optimus Prime. Thalaron is emitting large bursts of radiation, dubbed
“Thalaron Radiation,” that scientists have never seen before. The rate at which successive bursts are occurring is
increasing over time. This whole phenomenon involving the bursts of Thalaron Radiation from Thalaron has
become known as the “Thalaron Phenomenon.” Professor Tonk has proposed a theory, T1, to explain the
Thalaron Phenomenon. Professor Plonk has proposed another theory, T2, to explain the Thalaron Phenomenon.
Meanwhile, Professor Plink has proposed a third theory, T3, to explain the Thalaron Phenomenon. No one else
has been able to think of another theory.
Assume that all observations that are made to empirically test the three theories, respectively, are true and
correct. Assume, also, that none of the three theories will be modified to accommodate any problematic
observations.
13. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, suppose all three theories, T1, T2, and T3, entail that there is a 90%
chance that the rate at which the bursts of Thalaron Radiation are emitted will level off at ten bursts per minute.
Suppose that proper observations are made and that the predicted trend does occur. No other predictions have
been made. In such case, __________________.
(a) All three theories are Strongly Favored
(b) All three theories are Strongly Supported
(c) All three theories are Modestly Favored
(d) All three theories are Modestly Supported
(e) None of the above
SINCE ALL THREE THEORIES EXPECT THAT THE RATE AT WHICH THE BURSTS OF THALARON
RADIATION ARE EMITTED WILL LEVEL OFF AT TEN BURSTS PER MINUTE, NONE OF THEM IS
FAVORED BY THE RELEVANT OBSERVATIONS. SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF MODEST FAVORING AND
STRONG FAVORING, RESPECTIVELY,—ESPECIALLY PART (c)—AS WELL AS HOW THE DEFINITIONS OF
FAVORING ARE RELIED UPON IN THE CONDITIONS A THEORY NEEDS TO MEET TO FIT WITH THE
DEFINITIONS OF MODEST SUPPORT AND STRONG SUPPORT, RESPECTIVELY, IN TIERNEY, “THEORY
CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §III.B.
14. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, suppose that T1 entails that when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation
bursts reaches ten per minute, there is a 95% chance that Thalaron will also begin to eject large (and easily
detectable) jets of dilithium particles. By contrast, T2 and T3, respectively, entail that there is only a 5% chance
that Thalaron will begin to eject large jets of dilithium particles when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation bursts
reaches ten per minute. No other predictions have been made. Assume that the relevant observations are made
and that Thalaron does begin to eject large jets of dilithium particles when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation
bursts reaches ten per minute. In such case, __________________.
(a) T1 is Modestly Supported
(b) T1 is Strongly Favored over T2, and T3, respectively
(c) T1 is Strongly Supported
(d) Both (b) and (c), but not (a)
(e) None of the above
SEE THE RELEVANT DEFINITIONS IN TIERNEY, “THEORY CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,”
§III.B.
15. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, assume the same facts as in Question 14, with only this change: T2
entails that there is a 90% probability that Thalaron will begin to eject large jets of dilithium particles when the
rate of the Thalaron Radiation bursts reaches ten per minute. In such case, __________________.
(a) T1 is Modestly Supported
(b) T1 is Strongly Supported
(c) None of the above
WITH THIS CHANGE, T1 IS NEITHER MODESTLY NOR STRONGLY FAVORED AS AGAINST T2 SINCE
BOTH THEORIES EXPECT THAT THALARON WILL BEGIN TO EJECT LARGE JETS OF DILITHIUM
PARTICLES WHEN THE RATE OF THE THALARON RADIATION BURSTS REACHES TEN PER MINUTE.
THUS, T1 IS NEITHER MODESTLY SUPPORTED NOR STRONGLY SUPPORTED. SEE THE RELEVANT
DEFINITIONS IN TIERNEY, “THEORY CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §III.B.
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Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0--WITH CORRECT ANSWERS MARKED
16. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, suppose all three theories, T1, T2, and T3, respectively, entail that the
rate at which the bursts of Thalaron Radiation are emitted will definitely level off at ten bursts per minute.
Suppose that proper observations are made and that the predicted trend does NOT occur.
Also suppose that, that T1 entails that when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation bursts reaches ten per minute,
there is a 95% chance that Thalaron will also begin to eject large (and easily detectable) jets of dilithium
particles. By contrast, T2 and T3, respectively, entail that there is only a 5% chance that Thalaron will begin to
eject large jets of dilithium particles when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation bursts reaches ten per minute. No
other predictions have been made. Assume that the relevant observations are made and that Thalaron does
begin to eject large jets of dilithium particles when the rate of the Thalaron Radiation bursts reaches ten per
minute. In such case, __________________.
(a) T1 is Modestly Supported
(b) T1 is Strongly Favored over T2, and T3, respectively
(c) T1 is Strongly Supported
(d) Both (b) and (c), but not (a)
(e) None of the above
SINCE ALL THREE THEORIES HAVE BEEN FALSIFIED VIA THEIR RESPECTIVE PREDICTIONS THAT THE
RATE AT WHICH BURSTS OF THALARON RADIATION ARE EMITTED WOULD LEVEL OFF AT TEN
BURSTS PER MINUTE, THERE IS NO QUESTION OF THEM BEING FAVORED OR SUPPORTED BY
SUBSEQUENT OBSERVATIONS. SEE THE RELEVANT DEFINITIONS IN TIERNEY, “THEORY
CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §III.B.
17. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, suppose that T1 entails that the rate at which the bursts of Thalaron
Radiation are emitted will definitely level off at ten bursts per minute. Suppose, also, that T2 and T3,
respectively, entail that the rate at which the bursts of Thalaron Radiation are emitted will definitely NOT level
off at ten bursts per minute. Suppose that proper observations are made and that the rate at which the bursts of
Thalaron Radiation are emitted does level off at ten bursts per minute. In such case, do we know that T1 is true?
(a) Yes
(b) No
IN THIS CASE, T2 AND T3, RESPECTIVELY, HAVE BEEN PROVEN FALSE, AND T1 IS THE ONLY
REMAINING THEORY. HOWEVER, TO CONCLUDE, FROM THIS, THAT T1 IS TRUE IS TO COMMIT THE
ONLY GAME IN TOWN FALLACY. SEE TIERNEY, “THEORY CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,”
§III.C.
18. With respect to The Thalaron Scenario, assume the same facts as in Question 17 with only this change: T2 is
essentially the theory that T1 is false. In such case, do we know that T1 is true?
(a) Yes
(b) No
IN THIS CASE, T2 AND T3, RESPECTIVELY, HAVE BEEN PROVEN FALSE, AND T1 IS THE ONLY
REMAINING THEORY. IN ADDITION, SINCE T2 IS EQUIVALENT TO “NOT-T1,” WE HAVE THOS SPECIAL
CIRCUMSTANCES WHEREIN A THEORY CAN BE PROVEN TRUE. SEE TIERNEY, “THEORY
CONFIRMATION AND FALSIFICATION,” §III.D.
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Abduction, Part C, Practice Question Set (Fall 2015) v3.0--WITH CORRECT ANSWERS MARKED