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MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Working Group for Chapter 18 – Statistics
Bilateral screening: Chapter 18
PRESENTATION OF MONTENEGRO
Luxembourg, June 2013
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ECONOMY AND FINANCE
European System of Account-ESA(95)
Gross National Income(GNI)
Bilateral screening: Chapter 18
Presentation of Montenegro
Luxembourg, 23-24 June2013
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ECONOMY AND FINANCE
European System of Account-ESA (95)
Bilateral screening: Chapter 18
Presentation of Montenegro
Luxembourg, 23-24 June2013
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data:
Current situation
 MONSTAT compile GDP on annual and quarterly basis.
 Annual GDP is compiled by using two of the three possible methods of
calculation, the production and the expenditure approach. The income
approach is not yet implemented.
 The basic framework for compilation is ESA 95 methodology – (Reg.
2223/96).
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
Current situation:
 Data are available from 2000 year at current prices and from 2001 at constant
(previous year prices);
 Timeliness t+9 month;
 Output, IC and GVA at current prices are compiled level at 2-digit NACE level
and disseminate at NACE sector level;
 GDP by NACE Rev.2 is available for 2010 (only current price data) and 2011 at
current and constant prices (Reg. 715/2010);
 Eurostat's Handbook on the price and volume measurement is used for
compilation of constant prices and the recommendations from Decision
98/715 is adopted in accordance with the available price and volume indices
from basic statistics.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
 GDP at constant prices has been produced using single extrapolation method
at 2-digit NACE level (except agricultural activity where is applied double
deflation method);
 Sectors accounts: Output, IC and GVA are allocated on instituctional sectors for
2010 and 2011. Taxes and subsidies on products are not allocated, they are
available at the level of the total economy;
 FISIM is allocated by users sectors (Reg. 1889/2002). Main data source are
monetary statistics data from Central Bank (data on interest rates, stocks of
loans and deposits);
 Owner occupied dwelling services is compiled following user-cost approach
(Reg. 1722/2005). In accordance with the regulation less than 10% of
households are tenants, and there is a difference between private and other
paid rent;
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
 The non-observed economy is partially measured – legal part (Decision
94/168). Data are presented by OECD Tabular approach. The part of economy
relating to the tourism services and construction activity by households are
estimated. Exhaustiveness estimates is done also for entrepreneurs units
which have annual income above defined threshold;
 Data is transmitted to Eurostat via eDAMIS in the ESA 95 transmission
programme in accordance with the Reg. 1392/2007;
 The data were first submitted in September 2011.
 Tables 0101, 0301, 0800, and 1200 including a complete series of data
available are regularly submitted to Eurostat;
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
 With adoption of ESA 2010 MONSTAT is going to work on the associated
transmission programmes .
 In the future we will try to use the opportunity for alignement of international
standards for data dissemination and exchange by introducing SDMX
reference infrastructure that would enable the automatization of data
processing from the local database and convert them into a form suitable for
sending via eDAMIS.
 From this point of view introducing the SDMX in National accounts requires
trained IT staff and hardware support.
 It is also consider the possibility of implementation and hub approach using
web service that would allow automatic withdrawal data by Eurostat.
 IT and National accounts representatives participated on workshop on ESA
2010-SDMX on 10 June 2013.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
 Description on sources and methods used for compilation non-financial
national accounts – available and regularly updated within IPA regional
projects. Last updated with 2010 data as a referent year;
 Description is prepared following the structure of GNI Inventory. In total 76
pages:
•
Part A
Annual National Accounts at current prices (58 pages)
•
Part B
Price and Volume Measures (8 pages)
•
Part C
Quarterly National Accounts (1 page)
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Production approach:
Future compliances - Plan for alignment with acquis:
 Work on replacement of C method to at least B method in compiling GDP at
previous year prices following the recommendations from Handbook on price
and volume measures in national accounts (Decision 990/2002);
 Developing of first (experimental) SUT are planed within IPA 2010 national
programme which has started in May 2013 (2 years duration);
 Ongoing IPA 2011 regional project covers work on improvements on
exhaustiveness estimates and implementation of selected items by ESA 2010
(capitalization of R&D and military equipment). Preparation of Road Map for
ESA 2010. The results of IPA 2011 regional project will be available by July
2014;
 Introduction of GDP income approach – by the end of 2015;
 Compilation of GNI – by the end of 2015;
 Estimation of import and export FISIM for the GNI purpose – by end of 2015;
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
STATISTICS
Chapter 18:
ESA-95
Annual GDP data - Expenditure approach:
Current situation:
 GDP at current prices is available from 2000, at constant price from 2008;
 Classification: HFCE by COICOP, GGFCE by COFOG-Reg.113/2002; GFCF by
technical structure; Ex/Im of goods by SITC and Ex/Im of services in line
with BPM5;
 ΔInv is residual balancing item between production and expenditure
approaches – no independent estimates of ΔInv;
 Deflation method is applied for constant price compilation, except GGFCE
where extrapolation is applied;
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
STATISTICS
Chapter 18:
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Expenditure approach:
Current situation:
 From September 2011 onwards, national accounts data are regularly
transmitted to Eurostat through ESA 95 Data Transmission programme by
eDAMIS (Reg. 1392/2007).
 Following table is sent: 0102.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Annual GDP data-Expenditure approach:
Future compliances - Plan for alignment with acquis:
 Independent estimates of expenditure categories Changes in inventories.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Current situation:
 QGDP is compiled by production approach at current and constant prices.
 Experimental calculation of quarterly GDP at current and constant prices by
the expenditure approach is ongoing within IPA 2011 regional project.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Current situation - Production approach:
 Quarterly data are available from 2010 year at current prices and from 2011
at constant (compared with the same quarter of previous year);
 Timeliness t+90 days;
 QGDP is compiled using combination of direct and indirect approach.
 Compilation is done at NACE sector level and for G, H, I and J on 2-digit NACE
level. Dissemination is done at NACE sector level;
 QGDP by NACE Rev 2 is available for 2010 (only current price data) and 20112012 at current and constant prices (Reg. 715/2010);
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Production approach:
 QGDP 2012 is disseminated at the level of total economy but it is going to be
revised and disseminated at NACE level as soon as annual GDP 2012 will be
produced (end of September 2013).
 GDP at constant prices has been produced using sources and methods that
align as closely as possible to those used for the annual national account.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Production approach:
 QGDP 2010 is derived from annual GDP data for 2010 at current prices by
using pro rata technique and available indicators.
 QGDP 2011 and 2012 at constant price for each quarter are estimated by
extrapolation of previous year current price data with a volume index Qt/Qt4;
 Quarterly data at current price are made by inflating the constant price data of
current year with a price index Qt/Qt-4.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Production approach:
 Explained approach is applied for all activities except for general government
services, taxes and subsidies on products and financial services of commercial
banks.
 For the general government services, taxes and subsidies on products, and
financial services of commercial banks current price value added is compiled
from direct data source (consolidated budget and financial statements of
commercial banks).
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Production approach:
 QGDP data are compiled and disseminated as nominal values as well as
growth rates to the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
 FISIM is not calculated and allocated separately (Reg. 1889/2002) due to pro
rata technique for deriving QGDP 2010 from annual GDP data which already
include FISIM.
 Owner occupied dwelling services is not compiled following user-cost
approach (Reg. 1722/2005) because some of the data sources used for the
annual national accounts are not available on quarterly level. Applying the
same indicators as for annual dwelling services will be introduced in QGDP.
 Table 0101 with quarterly data are sent to Eurostat through ESA 95 Data
Transmission programme by eDAMIS (Reg. 1392/2007).
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Expenditure approach:
 Experimental calculation of quarterly GDP at current and constant prices by
the expenditure approach is ongoing within IPA 2011 regional project.
 Using sources and methods that align as closely as possible to those used for
the annual national accounts makes QGDP estimation possible for all
components of the expenditure approach .
 With estimation of Δinv using direct source of data from established quarterly
survey for non-financial corporations based on the difference between
opening and closing levels of stocks will try to improve the estimation other
than making changes in inventories as the residual balancing item.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Quarterly GDP data:
Future compliances - Plan for alignment with acquis:
 Start compiling QGDP by production approach using direct source of data from
established quarterly survey for non-financial corporations.
 Start compiling QGDP by expenditure approach based on direct source of data and
following the same statistical techniques as for the annual GDP.
 Allocation of FISIM by users sectors (Reg. 1889/2002) will be implemented by using
monetary statistics data from Central Bank (data on interest rates, stocks of loans and
deposits) on quarterly level.
 Using the Denton method for benchmark all QGDP estimates (current and constant
prices) to the annual ones.
 Chain link the quarterly volume measures using the annual overlap technique.
 QNA Inventory will be prepared by July 2014.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ESA-95
Problems we are facing with:
 Additional staff members is necessary to be assigned to the national accounts
department to address the work on development national accounts
production.
 The quality of the annual and quarterly national accounts estimates and the
sustainable progress in work remain at risk because of the lack of additional
staff and financial resources (for developing new and/or ad-hoc statistical
surveys).
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
ECONOMY AND FINANCE
Gross National Income (GNI) own resources
Bilateral screening: Chapter 18
Presentation of Montenegro
Luxembourg, 23-24 June2013
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
GNI own resources
Current situation – General overview:
 GDP data produced and published but GNI not yet published.
 The basis for compilation of GNI is GDP data.
 Annual GDP data by ESA 95 are compiled by production and
expenditure approaches. Timeliness: t+9 month.
 Annual GDP data by production side at current prices are available
from 2000 and at constant prices from 2001.
 Annual GDP data by expenditure side at current prices are available
from 2000 and at constant prices from 2008.
 Income approach is not implement.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
STATISTICS
Chapter 18:
GNI own resources
Current situation – FISIM:
 FISIM was expressed as intermediate consumption and in totally subtracted
from total GVA for period 2000-2006.
 Compilation of FISIM was improved in 2009 and FISIM is breakdown by 2digit NACE level user’s industries on production side and allocated in HFCE by
expenditure side (Reg. 1889/2002) for period 2007-onwards.
 Export and import FISIM is not yet compiled.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
GNI own resources
Current situation – Owner occupied dwelling services :
 Owner occupied dwelling services is estimated by applying user-cost
approach (Reg. 1722/2005).
 For the census years (2003 and 2011) user-cost method is applied in detail,
and for others inter-census years it is estimated using appropriate indicators.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
GNI own resources
Current situation – GDP exhaustiveness:
 GDP exhaustiveness estimation: the non-observed economy is partially
measured – legal part (Decision 94/168).
 Ongoing IPA 2011 regional project cover activity on improvement of
exhaustiveness estimates in annual national accounts. MONSTAT is carrying
out work on improvements on compilation of household tourism service
activities, own-account construction activities and coverage adjustment on
non-financial units.
 The exercise on labor comparison is experimentally done within previous IPA
2007 national programme. The expert recommendation is to continue with
reconciliation of different data sources for employees.
 Compilation of theoretical and VAT fraud (Decision 98/527) is not done.
Supply and use tables needs to be developed in order to have detail
information for appropriate estimation of VAT fraud.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
GNI own resources
Current situation - GNI own resources
 Document „Description on sources and methods used for
compilation non-financial national accounts" – available and
regularly updated within IPA regional projects. Last updated with
2010 data as a referent year.
 GNI is experimentally compiled for period 2007-2011. Compilation
is done by transferring GDP to GNI data using in total Balance of
Payments data.
 MONSTAT do not participate in the work of the GNI Committee as
well as in verification exercise monitored by the Commission.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Chapter 18:
STATISTICS
GNI own resources
Future compliances
 Responsible institution for compilation of GDP/GNI data is MONSTAT.
Stakeholders in the work on compiling and providing GNI data for the own
resources purposes will be Central bank and Ministry of finance.
 IPA 2010 national programme includes activity on compilation of GNI.
Programme is started in May 2013 and will be close in 2015 when first official
results of GNI data can be available.
 Improve exhaustiveness compilation of GDP by production and expenditure
side. The priority are employment comparison and VAT fraud estimates.
Expert support is required by IPA 2010 national programme.
 Estimation of import and export FISIM – by end of 2015.
 Introduction of GDP income approach – by end of 2015.
 Enlarge Description to start with preparing GNI Inventory which is required
for checking of comparability and reliability of GDP/GNI data.
MONTENEGRO
Negotiating Team for Accession of Montenegro to the European Union
Chapter 18:
Statistics
Thank you for your attention!
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