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1 Powering Our Lives (2008) Futures project run by UK Government Foresight on Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment (2006-8) looked at this issue of lock-in to centralisation Futures work based on scenario development informed by state of science reviews http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight 2 Powering Our Lives (2008) Findings: inter alia Highly centralised energy generation and distribution Only 4.9 GWe Combined Heat and Power capacity Despite recent (and short-lived) expansion in on-site PV and solar thermal, it is a tiny proportion of the total Low use of renewables; 3-4% share in total gross inland energy consumption UK needs to use the full energy spectrum and break the current lock-in to centralisation CLUES is a follow-up project funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council as part of SUE3 programme and affiliated to LWEC programme 3 CLUES project Two overarching questions: What is the contribution to carbon reductions at the national scale that can be achieved by the greater deployment of urban energy initiatives? What are the implications of this promotion of urban energy systems for change in urban environments to 2050 and for the sustainability of urban areas? 4 CLUES team Multi-disciplinary consortium comprising six universities: UCL: Yvonne Rydin, Catalina Turcu, Patrick Austin Exeter: Patrick Devine-Wright, Bouke Wiersma Loughborough: Chris Goodier, Ksenia Chmutina Manchester: Simon Guy, Graeme Sherriff Surrey: Lester Hunt, Scott Milne Sussex: Jim Watson, Christophe Rynikiewicz 5 CLUES work programme Scenario work Case study work WP1 – Project management WP2 – Database of urban energy initiatives WP3 – Quantification of SEMBE scenarios WP4 – Series of 9 UK case studies (interviews, visits, documentation) WP6 – Development of quantification using insights of case studies WP5 – Series of 4 innovative case studies from overseas (interviews, visits, documentation + workshops) WP7 – Synthesis, incl. Delphi Study WP8 - Dissemination 6 Conceptual framework Based in co-evolution approach Applying elements of assemblage theory 7 The CLUES Database: mapping current activity 182 urban energy initiatives available at http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues/outputs/ project_reports Co-evolutionary clustering according technology, economic incentives, governance and public involvement 51 different pathways found 8 Example of a pathways illustration 9 Some common patterns 74% pathways involved subsidies or grants 57% entailed no public involvement 73% involved energy generation technology Private sector pathways exhibit limited variety 10 Proliferation of diversity There are multiple initiators of projects Projects are often very complex Many involve assumptions of behavioural change in relation to technology use and energy demand Diversity creates challenges for local strategic planning Need mechanisms for learning between projects 11 CLUES Case Studies A look at the drivers of decentralised urban energy initiatives 12 Decentralised energy • • • ▫ • The generation of heat or electricity near where it is used. Characterised as either micro (household/building) or meso (street/neighbourhood/town) Proposed as a significant pathway towards decarbonising the U.K. energy system Proposed benefits: To save carbon, money, local empowerment & engagement / behaviour change Current government and research focus is on community-led DE, which chimes with wider policy themes: Localism, Big Society 13 Drivers of Decentralised Energy projects • • • What are the various factors said by instigating actors to drive DE projects? To what degree do these drivers vary depending upon the sector of instigating actors? What implications do the drivers have for policies to reduce carbon emissions? 14 Methods • Comparative analysis of 13 urban decentralised energy projects in the UK, Europe and North America • Reviewed secondary data first, then interviewed key stakeholders (total of 33 interviews in UK and 15 international interviews) and held 4 UK-based workshops • Using qualitative data analysis, we identified themes used to compare the cases 15 Renewable Heritage (third sector led) Demonstration project aiming to show feasibility of improving ‘hard to treat’ listed buildings in a world heritage site Work with conservation bodies (potential opponents) Installed solar hot water systems on 7 Georgian housing blocks Led by sustainability research organisation (Changeworks) and a housing co-operative (Lister) as part of a wider partnership 16 Kungsbrohuset office building, Stockholm ‘Green’ 13-storey property in the city centre Shops, restaurants, cafes as well as a hotel and offices Existing and mature technologies and materials, including a heating system transferring excessive heat from the nearby train station and weather forecasting as a way to adjust internal temperatures Free consultations given to tenants on how to make their businesses greener and to promote public transport use (limited parking) 17 UK Cases Energy Glencraig Newport ReneRiverside wable Dene Heritage Shimmer Sustainable Moseley Wandle Zero Valley Low Carbon Carbon Homes Zone Duration One-off Ongoing One-off One-off Ongoing Ongoing One-off One-off Leading sector Third Commun- Private ity Third Public Third Community Mix Private Total cost £80k £650k £250k £2.2m £500k £140k £900k £3.5m Intervention Behaviour Biomass, Wind change district turbines heating Solar thermal Biomass Behaviour Behaviour Behaviour Mix district change & change & change & heating & solar pv solar pv solar pv refurb of tower blocks Location Scotland North East England Neighbour hoods One-off £6m South West N. Ireland Wales England London England Midlands, England London England S.E. England 18 International Duindorp/ Scheveningen Cases Berlin Energy Saving Partnership Morris Model Kungsbrohuset Building Seawater District Heating Duration Ongoing Ongoing Ongoing One-off Leading sector Private sector Public-private partnership Public-private partnership Private sector Total costs €10 m no initial investment $30 m (in bonds) €120 m Energy efficiency measures Solar PV Energy efficiency Intervention/inno Seawater heating vation Location The Hague, Netherlands Berlin, Germany New Jersey, USA Stockholm, Sweden Innovative features Seawater district heating and cooling system is not widely used in the UK, although there is a large potential for it An innovative approach to reduce local governments’ energy spendings while reducing GHG emissions and promoting renewable energy A way of making energy efficient building profitable without investing into innovative but not mature technologies and materials Innovative approach to refurbish public buildings without initial investment 19 UK Findings •Black = driver is present; White = driver is absent •Highly diverse drivers •Differences across sectors 20 UK Drivers – quotes from interviews Helping those in poverty: Jim, Shimmer:“We wanted to find poor people. I think I, and the others, have been shocked by what we’ve found, because when you go into a house that’s freezing, you’ve got four kids and there’ all hungry, and the rest of it, you really want to do what you can. I would say it’s driven us on”. Helping the environment: Interviewer: “Why do you want to make carbon savings?” John, Camphill Community, Glencraig:“It would be ideological, yes. You know, it’s sort of all part of the Camphill ethos, you know. As you probably know from Ben and Geoff, you know, like organic farming and bio-dynamics is a very big part of the community and we have always, you know, believed in these things from the very, you know, start of Camphill, yes”. 21 Drivers: International cases The Hague • Belief in sustainability • Finding a sustainable heating source for the social housing • Location Morris (US) Berlin Stockholm • Interest of the local government – meeting target for low carbon energy; • Location – schools with flat roofs • Cost reduction for the local government; • Pooling concept allows further energy savings • Interest of the local government • State of the buildings • Cost reduction for the local government • Pooling concept allows further energy savings • Owners of the land • Locations • Niche business • Good opportunity to earn money (rental income and final sale price) 22 • Main aims: costs/emissions reduction (or both) Financial Financial savings Governance Climate change targets; interest of the local government Social - Technical Location/ availability of the suitable site • Drivers triggered financial approaches - MM and Berlin are identical • Social aspects not mentioned as a driver (e.g. behavioural change) but are taken into account (awareness of the social barriers?) • Physical enablers are important (e.g. location) 23 Quotes from international cases Awareness of social barriers Karl, Kungsbrohuset office buildings: “People don’t want to change and they just want to have it the way that they’ve always had it and if they’re going to change it has to be something better or easier or something. They don’t want to do something that takes more time and they don’t want to pay more money. They just want it to work anyway”. Physical enablers - presence of the sea Henk Heijkers, The City of The Hague:“The social background of the people who live in Duindorp was with … fishermen families and there was an old combination with the sea and in some marketing we used that old combination in the new combination with the sea”. 24 CLUES conclusions(1) Drivers of DE projects are highly diverse In the UK cases: Carbon targets, financial benefits and empowerment less commonly found than expected Alleviating poverty and reducing environmental impacts were most common, particularly amongst community/3rd sector projects In the international cases: Governance and social barriers played an important role in project implementation … however, most of the policies are aimed at financial and technical improvements. 25 CLUES conclusions(2) These findings suggest the need for Government to: adopt flexible policies on decentralised energy, not a “one size fits all” approach focus upon social and governance aspects, not just financial/technical avoid ‘reducing’ the scope of DE project evaluation solely to carbon reduction 26 CLUES Scenarios Scenario work to envision the world in 2050 27 Outlining the scenario work Work had two stages Stage 1 ○ Quantification of the SEMBE scenarios ○ University of Sussex Stage 2 ○ Development of the CLUES qualitative and quantitative scenarios ○ University of Surrey 28 Stage 1 Used the ASK carbon accounting tool to ‘quantify’ the SEMBE scenarios ASK is an accounting spreadsheet tool ○ previously developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research ○ allows for a disaggregated analysis of an energy system and associated carbon emissions ○ Based on decomposition analysis Also involved a stakeholder workshop 29 SEMBE Scenario framework 30 ASK – Demand Side ASK explores four sectors of the UK economy Households Industry Further divided into 4 industry sectors ○ Energy Intensive Industry, Non-Intensive Industry, the Energy Industry, Construction; Services Further divided into 4 industry sectors ○ Public Administration, Commercial, Agriculture, Miscellaneous; Transport Further divided into 8 industry sectors ○ Domestic Aviation, International Aviation, Rail, Road Freight, Private Road Passenger, Public Road Passenger, Inland Freight, International Freight. 31 ASK – Supply Side Supply assumptions input (in absolute units) until the cumulative supply contribution matches demand Began by establishing the grid electricity mix Then, for each individual sector, various supply assumptions were made: i.e. the percentage contribution to grid electricity from the following range of fuels/technologies: coal, gas, nuclear, biofuels/waste, renewables, coal co-fired with biomass, coal co-fired with biomass with CCS, Coal with CCS, Gas with CCS, imports from other grids. share of energy demand met by grid electricity; gas CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed); coal CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed); biofuel CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed); electricity from onsite renewables; non-electrical energy from: onsite renewables, coal, oil, gas, onsite waste & biofuel. Supply is therefore balanced with demand for each sector for each decadal year 32 Stage 2 Focused on two of the original SEMBE scenarios ‘Green Growth’ and ‘Sunshine State’ Re-quantified; in doing so revised some base assumptions about growth, etc. made a clearer distinction between a 'centralised' and 'decentralised' energy system in the two new scenarios: ○ ‘Greening Centralised Energy’ & ‘Stretching the Energy Spectrum’ Thus allowed the (de)centralisation assumption to be widened beyond the energy system to describe the character of the global economy; i.e. a centralised world of global trade and economic specialisation ○ vs more localised economies where more primary manufacturing etc. is kept within the UK. 33 Challenges The task of ‘quantifying’ ‘narrative’ scenarios is a challenging one Team learnt a number of important lessons along the way Difficulty in identifying plausible assumptions from the narrative – requires further ‘judgements’ to be made The quantification led to questioning of the original SEMBE assumptions - therefore seen as an important exercise in order to ‘test out’ the narrative and ensure internal consistency of the scenarios Highlighted the lack of detail of the original SEMBE scenarios. The modelling tool needs to be fit for purpose 34 CLUES Futures The outcome is two future scenarios ‘Greening Centralised Energy’ ○ and ‘Stretching the Energy Spectrum’ Note: Scenarios are possible illustrations and interpretations of how the future might look in 2050 They are not predictions or forecasts Intended to help prepare and potentially shape the reality that unfolds 35 36 Comparing the CLUES Futures 37 Comparing the CLUES Futures 38 Comparing the CLUES Futures 39 CLUES conclusions (1) Currently in a situation of multiple possible pathways being explored, nationally and locally This will change over time as some pathways fade away through national and local decision making Strategic planning (esp. locally) is currently being challenged by these multiple pathways and the uncertainties (in terms of carbon outcomes) involved in relying on demand management 40 CLUES conclusions (2) Greater decentralisation can play a part in creating a future with reduced carbon emissions, although this is often not its primary purpose But rolling out sufficient decentralisation in order to achieve anything close to 80% carbon cuts implies a very radical shift Urban energy initiatives need to be locally embedded in terms of values, policy and institutional change; this is currently lacking in the UK 41 CLUES conclusions (3) Need more emphasis in UK on fostering learning across local initiatives, esp. on behavioural change Need to recognise that urban energy initiatives also meet important non-carbon agendas (fuel poverty, energy security) This may seem to throw the emphasis back onto centralisation in terms of carbon reduction, but this scenario has its own uncertainties and risks Any choice of future energy pathway(s) is inherently political 42 CLUES Energy Triangle Tool Brings together key results from the case studies and the scenario work Provides more detailed visualisation of 2050 futures Develops a tool to explore current uncertainties in specific contexts Based around self-evaluation Aimed at strategic planners considering whether to promote decentralised energy initiatives in their localities 43 http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues/CLUES_ Tool https://www.ucl.ac.uk/clues/CLUES_Tool /index 44 Thank you Full details of the CLUES project including the urban energy initiatives database, an interactive version of the tool, workshop reports, the Delphi report and academic publications details are available at: http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues 45