Download CLUES Launch Event (ppt)

1
Powering Our Lives (2008)
Futures project run by UK Government
Foresight on Sustainable Energy
Management and the Built Environment
(2006-8) looked at this issue of lock-in to
centralisation
 Futures work based on scenario
development informed by state of
science reviews
 http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight

2
Powering Our Lives (2008)

Findings: inter alia
 Highly centralised energy generation and distribution
 Only 4.9 GWe Combined Heat and Power capacity
 Despite recent (and short-lived) expansion in on-site PV
and solar thermal, it is a tiny proportion of the total
 Low use of renewables; 3-4% share in total gross inland
energy consumption
UK needs to use the full energy spectrum and break the
current lock-in to centralisation
CLUES is a follow-up project funded by the UK
Engineering and Physical Science Research Council
as part of SUE3 programme and affiliated to LWEC
programme
3
CLUES project

Two overarching questions:
 What is the contribution to carbon reductions
at the national scale that can be achieved by
the greater deployment of urban energy
initiatives?
 What are the implications of this promotion of
urban energy systems for change in urban
environments to 2050 and for the
sustainability of urban areas?
4
CLUES team

Multi-disciplinary consortium comprising six
universities:
 UCL: Yvonne Rydin, Catalina Turcu, Patrick





Austin
Exeter: Patrick Devine-Wright, Bouke Wiersma
Loughborough: Chris Goodier, Ksenia
Chmutina
Manchester: Simon Guy, Graeme Sherriff
Surrey: Lester Hunt, Scott Milne
Sussex: Jim Watson, Christophe Rynikiewicz
5
CLUES work programme
Scenario work
Case study work
WP1 – Project management
WP2 – Database of urban energy
initiatives
WP3 – Quantification of SEMBE
scenarios
WP4 – Series of 9 UK case studies
(interviews, visits, documentation)
WP6 – Development of quantification
using insights of case studies
WP5 – Series of 4 innovative case
studies from overseas (interviews,
visits, documentation + workshops)
WP7 – Synthesis, incl. Delphi Study
WP8 - Dissemination
6
Conceptual framework
Based in co-evolution approach
 Applying elements of assemblage theory

7
The CLUES Database: mapping
current activity
182 urban energy initiatives available at
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues/outputs/
project_reports
 Co-evolutionary clustering according
technology, economic incentives,
governance and public involvement
 51 different pathways found

8
Example of a pathways
illustration
9
Some common patterns
74% pathways involved subsidies or
grants
 57% entailed no public involvement
 73% involved energy generation
technology
 Private sector pathways exhibit limited
variety

10
Proliferation of diversity
There are multiple initiators of projects
 Projects are often very complex
 Many involve assumptions of
behavioural change in relation to
technology use and energy demand
 Diversity creates challenges for local
strategic planning
 Need mechanisms for learning between
projects

11
CLUES Case Studies
A look at the drivers of decentralised
urban energy initiatives
12
Decentralised energy
•
•
•
▫
•
The generation of heat or electricity near
where it is used.
Characterised as either micro
(household/building) or meso
(street/neighbourhood/town)
Proposed as a significant pathway towards
decarbonising the U.K. energy system
Proposed benefits: To save carbon, money,
local empowerment & engagement / behaviour
change
Current government and research focus is on
community-led DE, which chimes with wider
policy themes: Localism, Big Society
13
Drivers of Decentralised Energy
projects
•
•
•
What are the various factors said by
instigating actors to drive DE projects?
To what degree do these drivers vary
depending upon the sector of instigating
actors?
What implications do the drivers have for
policies to reduce carbon emissions?
14
Methods
•
Comparative analysis of 13 urban
decentralised energy projects in the UK,
Europe and North America
•
Reviewed secondary data first, then
interviewed key stakeholders (total of 33
interviews in UK and 15 international
interviews) and held 4 UK-based workshops
•
Using qualitative data analysis, we
identified themes used to compare the
cases
15
Renewable Heritage
(third sector led)




Demonstration project aiming to
show feasibility of improving
‘hard to treat’ listed buildings in a
world heritage site
Work with conservation bodies
(potential opponents)
Installed solar hot water
systems on 7 Georgian housing
blocks
Led by sustainability research
organisation (Changeworks) and
a housing co-operative (Lister)
as part of a wider partnership
16
Kungsbrohuset office building, Stockholm
‘Green’
13-storey property in
the city centre
Shops, restaurants, cafes as
well as a hotel and offices
Existing and mature
technologies and materials,
including a heating system
transferring excessive heat from
the nearby train station and
weather forecasting as a way to
adjust internal temperatures
Free consultations given to
tenants on how to make their
businesses greener and to
promote public transport use
(limited parking)
17
UK Cases Energy
Glencraig Newport
ReneRiverside
wable
Dene
Heritage
Shimmer
Sustainable
Moseley
Wandle
Zero
Valley Low Carbon
Carbon
Homes
Zone
Duration
One-off
Ongoing
One-off
One-off
Ongoing
Ongoing
One-off
One-off
Leading
sector
Third
Commun- Private
ity
Third
Public
Third
Community
Mix
Private
Total cost
£80k
£650k
£250k
£2.2m
£500k
£140k
£900k
£3.5m
Intervention Behaviour Biomass, Wind
change
district
turbines
heating
Solar
thermal
Biomass
Behaviour Behaviour Behaviour Mix
district
change & change & change &
heating &
solar pv
solar pv
solar pv
refurb of
tower blocks
Location
Scotland North East
England
Neighbour
hoods
One-off
£6m
South West N. Ireland Wales
England
London
England
Midlands,
England
London
England
S.E.
England
18
International Duindorp/
Scheveningen
Cases
Berlin Energy Saving
Partnership
Morris Model
Kungsbrohuset
Building
Seawater District
Heating
Duration
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
One-off
Leading sector
Private sector
Public-private
partnership
Public-private partnership
Private sector
Total costs
€10 m
no initial investment
$30 m (in bonds)
€120 m
Energy efficiency
measures
Solar PV
Energy efficiency
Intervention/inno Seawater heating
vation
Location
The Hague, Netherlands Berlin, Germany
New Jersey, USA
Stockholm, Sweden
Innovative
features
Seawater district heating
and cooling system is
not widely used in the
UK, although there is a
large potential for it
An innovative approach to
reduce local governments’
energy spendings while
reducing GHG emissions and
promoting renewable energy
A way of making
energy efficient
building profitable
without investing
into innovative but
not mature
technologies and
materials
Innovative approach to
refurbish public buildings
without initial
investment
19
UK Findings
•Black = driver is present; White = driver is absent
•Highly diverse drivers
•Differences across sectors
20
UK Drivers – quotes from interviews

Helping those in poverty:
Jim, Shimmer:“We wanted to find poor people. I think I, and the
others, have been shocked by what we’ve found, because
when you go into a house that’s freezing, you’ve got four kids
and there’ all hungry, and the rest of it, you really want to do
what you can. I would say it’s driven us on”.

Helping the environment:
Interviewer: “Why do you want to make carbon savings?”
John, Camphill Community, Glencraig:“It would be ideological, yes.
You know, it’s sort of all part of the Camphill ethos, you know.
As you probably know from Ben and Geoff, you know, like
organic farming and bio-dynamics is a very big part of the
community and we have always, you know, believed in these
things from the very, you know, start of Camphill, yes”.
21
Drivers: International cases
The Hague
• Belief in
sustainability
• Finding a
sustainable
heating source
for the social
housing
• Location
Morris (US)
Berlin
Stockholm
• Interest of the
local government
– meeting target
for low carbon
energy;
• Location –
schools with flat
roofs
• Cost reduction
for the local
government;
• Pooling concept
allows further
energy savings
• Interest of the
local government
• State of the
buildings
• Cost reduction
for the local
government
• Pooling concept
allows further
energy savings
• Owners of the
land
• Locations
• Niche business
• Good
opportunity to
earn money
(rental income
and final sale
price)
22
•
Main aims: costs/emissions reduction (or both)
Financial
Financial savings
Governance
Climate change targets;
interest of the local
government
Social
-
Technical
Location/ availability of the
suitable site
•
Drivers triggered financial approaches - MM and
Berlin are identical
• Social aspects not mentioned as a driver (e.g.
behavioural change) but are taken into account
(awareness of the social barriers?)
• Physical enablers are important (e.g. location)
23
Quotes from international cases
Awareness
of social barriers
Karl, Kungsbrohuset office buildings: “People don’t want to
change and they just want to have it the way that they’ve
always had it and if they’re going to change it has to be
something better or easier or something. They don’t want to do
something that takes more time and they don’t want to pay
more money. They just want it to work anyway”.
Physical enablers - presence of the sea
Henk
Heijkers, The City of The Hague:“The social background
of the people who live in Duindorp was with … fishermen
families and there was an old combination with the sea and in
some marketing we used that old combination in the new
combination with the sea”.
24
CLUES conclusions(1)



Drivers of DE projects are highly diverse
In the UK cases:
 Carbon targets, financial benefits and empowerment less
commonly found than expected
 Alleviating poverty and reducing environmental impacts
were most common, particularly amongst community/3rd
sector projects
In the international cases:
 Governance and social barriers played an important role
in project implementation … however, most of the policies
are aimed at financial and technical improvements.
25
CLUES conclusions(2)

These findings suggest the need for
Government to:
 adopt flexible policies on decentralised
energy, not a “one size fits all” approach
 focus upon social and governance
aspects, not just financial/technical
 avoid ‘reducing’ the scope of DE project
evaluation solely to carbon reduction
26
CLUES Scenarios
Scenario work to envision the
world in 2050
27
Outlining the scenario work

Work had two stages
 Stage 1
○ Quantification of the SEMBE scenarios
○ University of Sussex
 Stage 2
○ Development of the CLUES qualitative and
quantitative scenarios
○ University of Surrey
28
Stage 1

Used the ASK carbon accounting tool to
‘quantify’ the SEMBE scenarios
 ASK is an accounting spreadsheet tool
○ previously developed by the Tyndall Centre for
Climate Change Research
○ allows for a disaggregated analysis of an
energy system and associated carbon
emissions
○ Based on decomposition analysis
 Also involved a stakeholder workshop
29
SEMBE Scenario framework
30
ASK – Demand Side



ASK explores four sectors of the UK economy
Households
Industry
 Further divided into 4 industry sectors
○ Energy Intensive Industry, Non-Intensive Industry, the
Energy Industry, Construction;

Services
 Further divided into 4 industry sectors
○ Public Administration, Commercial, Agriculture,
Miscellaneous;

Transport
 Further divided into 8 industry sectors
○ Domestic Aviation, International Aviation, Rail, Road
Freight, Private Road Passenger, Public Road Passenger,
Inland Freight, International Freight.
31
ASK – Supply Side
Supply assumptions input (in absolute units) until the cumulative
supply contribution matches demand
 Began by establishing the grid electricity mix



Then, for each individual sector, various supply assumptions were
made:







i.e. the percentage contribution to grid electricity from the following range of
fuels/technologies: coal, gas, nuclear, biofuels/waste, renewables, coal co-fired with
biomass, coal co-fired with biomass with CCS, Coal with CCS, Gas with CCS, imports
from other grids.
share of energy demand met by grid electricity;
gas CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed);
coal CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed);
biofuel CHP heat, (electricity contribution then imputed);
electricity from onsite renewables;
non-electrical energy from: onsite renewables, coal, oil, gas, onsite waste & biofuel.
Supply is therefore balanced with demand for each sector for each
decadal year
32
Stage 2

Focused on two of the original SEMBE scenarios
 ‘Green Growth’ and ‘Sunshine State’

Re-quantified; in doing so
 revised some base assumptions about growth, etc.
 made a clearer distinction between a 'centralised' and
'decentralised' energy system in the two new scenarios:
○ ‘Greening Centralised Energy’ & ‘Stretching the
Energy Spectrum’

Thus allowed the (de)centralisation assumption to
be widened beyond the energy system to describe
the character of the global economy; i.e.
 a centralised world of global trade and economic
specialisation
○ vs
 more localised economies where more primary
manufacturing etc. is kept within the UK.
33
Challenges
The task of ‘quantifying’ ‘narrative’ scenarios is
a challenging one
 Team learnt a number of important lessons
along the way

 Difficulty in identifying plausible assumptions from the
narrative – requires further ‘judgements’ to be made
 The quantification led to questioning of the original
SEMBE assumptions - therefore seen as an
important exercise in order to ‘test out’ the narrative
and ensure internal consistency of the scenarios
 Highlighted the lack of detail of the original SEMBE
scenarios.
 The modelling tool needs to be fit for purpose
34
CLUES Futures

The outcome is two future scenarios
 ‘Greening Centralised Energy’
○ and
 ‘Stretching the Energy Spectrum’

Note:
 Scenarios are possible illustrations and
interpretations of how the future might look in
2050
 They are not predictions or forecasts
 Intended to help prepare and potentially shape
the reality that unfolds
35
36
Comparing the CLUES Futures
37
Comparing the CLUES Futures
38
Comparing the CLUES Futures
39
CLUES conclusions (1)
Currently in a situation of multiple possible
pathways being explored, nationally and
locally
 This will change over time as some
pathways fade away through national and
local decision making
 Strategic planning (esp. locally) is currently
being challenged by these multiple
pathways and the uncertainties (in terms of
carbon outcomes) involved in relying on
demand management

40
CLUES conclusions (2)
Greater decentralisation can play a part in
creating a future with reduced carbon
emissions, although this is often not its
primary purpose
 But rolling out sufficient decentralisation in
order to achieve anything close to 80%
carbon cuts implies a very radical shift
 Urban energy initiatives need to be locally
embedded in terms of values, policy and
institutional change; this is currently lacking
in the UK

41
CLUES conclusions (3)




Need more emphasis in UK on fostering
learning across local initiatives, esp. on
behavioural change
Need to recognise that urban energy initiatives
also meet important non-carbon agendas (fuel
poverty, energy security)
This may seem to throw the emphasis back
onto centralisation in terms of carbon
reduction, but this scenario has its own
uncertainties and risks
Any choice of future energy pathway(s) is
inherently political
42
CLUES Energy Triangle Tool





Brings together key results from the case
studies and the scenario work
Provides more detailed visualisation of
2050 futures
Develops a tool to explore current
uncertainties in specific contexts
Based around self-evaluation
Aimed at strategic planners considering
whether to promote decentralised energy
initiatives in their localities
43
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues
 http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues/CLUES_
Tool
 https://www.ucl.ac.uk/clues/CLUES_Tool
/index

44
Thank you
Full details of the CLUES project including
the urban energy initiatives database, an
interactive version of the tool, workshop
reports, the Delphi report and academic
publications details are available at:
http://www.ucl.ac.uk/silva/clues
45