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Economics 434 Financial Markets Professor Burton University of Virginia Fall 2015 November 3, 2015 Duration – One More Time • Pure Definition: (dP/dy)/P – Percentage drop in value of bond for a small increase in yield • But McCauley Duration is: weighted average of maturities of payments where the weights are the fraction of present value that is embodied in that specific payment with the specific maturity November 3, 2015 Continuing C C C Pr incipal P ........ 2 1 y 1 y 1 yn dP ( 1) * C ( 2) * C ( n) * C Pr incipal ..... 2 3 n1 dy 1 y 1 y 1 y Rearranging gives: dP 1 1* C 2*C n * C Pr incipal * ... 2 n dy 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y P Economics 434 – Financial Market Theory P Tuesday, Oct 20, 2015 Duration Equals McCauley Duration for a treasury bond or note dP 1 1* C 2*C n * C Pr incipal * ... 2 n dy 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y P P Duration McCauley Duration 1 1 y Is approximately equal to 1 Duration Equals McCauley Duration for a treasury bond or note dP 1 1* C 2*C n * C Pr incipal * ... 2 n dy 1 y 1 y 1 y 1 y P P Duration McCauley Duration 1 1 y Is approximately equal to 1 Example, Recent 2 Year Note • Coupon 5/8 – Means payments twice yearly of 5/8 divided by 2 multiplied by $ 1,000 = $ 312.50 Current Price = Present Value = 312.50 1+𝑟 + 312.50 1+𝑟 2 + 312.50 1+𝑟 3 + 100,312.50 1+𝑟 4 312.50 𝑤1 = 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑓Type equation here.𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 = 1+𝑟 divided by P 100,312.50 1+𝑟 4 divided by P W4 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑝𝑎𝑙 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 = McCauley Duration is = 1 times w1 plus 2 times w2 plus 3 times w3 plus 4 times w4 November 3, 2015 Meanwhile Back to ABS • Broad principles – Create a pool of fixed income securities (or could be bank loans)…debt instruments generally – Using the pool’s cash flows, create brand new securities with usually a wide range of credit quality • New securities created are driven by demand for certain credit qualities and durations (where such combinations may not be currently available) November 3, 2015 November 3, 2015