Download Sustainability - A Journey to Better Understand Change and Our

We stand at a critical moment in Earth’s history, a time when
humanity must choose its future. As the world becomes
increasingly interdependent and fragile, the future at once holds
great peril and great promise.
To move forward we must recognize that in the midst of a
magnificent diversity of cultures and life forms we are one human
family and one Earth community
with a common destiny.
We must join together to bring forth a sustainable global society
founded on respect for nature, universal human rights, economic
justice, and a culture of peace.
- The Earth Charter (2000)
The Growing Interest in Sustainability
From XKCD
Can We Really Have a
Sustainable Society?
Part of the monthly series:
“The World Future We Need”
Mike Ignatowski Oct 16th, 2016
[email protected]
UnderstandingTheFuture.com
What can you expect from these classes?
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Satisfy some curiosity - create more questions
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Understanding new technology in the news
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Deal with the unsettling rates of change
•
Understanding “the big picture” of nature
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“Big Picture view” of social justice topics
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A chance to share thoughts and ask questions
What is this class about?
It’s Not about:
 Recycling, backyard gardens, busses & bike lanes
 Sustainable eco-villages
 Lifestyle changes
It is about:
 Understanding key big issues
 What makes societies sustainable
 Major trends and initiatives
 The major changes needed
What is sustainable development?
1.
2.
3.
Living within the carrying capacity of the
eco-system without destroying or degrading the
natural environment.
Live responsibly, so that the resources of the
planet will support many generations to come
Meet the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs
Sustainable Development
Comments from Jeffrey Sachs
• Sustainable development is probably the most important
issue we face.
• We are not even close to being on a course of sustainable
development in many areas.
• This should be the #1 issue being talked about
Beyond Just Global Warming
Why sustainability is the big issue of our time
Emails
Inc. Tax
Returns
Environmental
Climate
Food /
Agriculture
Water
Energy
Transportation
Natural Resources
Social
Economic
Inequality
Trade
Jobs / Retirement
Business /
Investment
Charitable
Foundations
Debt
Health
Care
Stability, Security
& Justice
Governance
Education
War /
Crime
Immigration
Social Capital
Sustainability
Groping
Overshoot and Collapse
Renewable Resource Usage
Consider an Island Environment
Sustainable Resource Level
Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Overshoot and Collapse
New Sustainable Resource Level
Overshoot and Collapse
Sustainable Resource Level
Zero
Limits to Growth
“Limits to Growth” – 1972 Book
Flourishing and
Collapse of the
Ancient Maya
Civilization
With a computer
simulation of impact on
environment
Peak oil
• Conventional oil production
peaked in 2005
• Oil prices climbed rapidly
($145 / barrel in 2008).
Fracking kicks in.
• We are passing “peak fracked
oil”
Eagle Ford Shale Oil production
Peak Water ?
• We are using much more than
is being replenished
• Water tables are falling
drastically around the world
– 3-10 ft per year in India
– The great Yellow River in China
runs dry before reaching the sea
most days
• 100s of millions of Africans
will face water shortages in
under 20 years
Water Table Falling in the US Farm Belt
Peak Rice / Peak Wheat?
• Arable land is declining
– Development and soil erosion….
• Water usage is already past its sustainable limit and
will decline
• Oil available for fertilizer production is peaking
• This is a long term problem
United Nations Programs
Agenda 21:
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Non-binding agreement on
sustainable development
Signed in 1992 by H.W. Bush
Millennium Development Goals
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2000  2015
8 Development Goals
Brazil, China, India = biggest success stories
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria…
Goal 3: Gender equality and empower women
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality rates
Goal 8: Global partnership for development
United Nations Programs
Sustainable Development Goals
•
2015  2030
So What do We Have to Give Up?
Country
CO2 per person
(tons)
Quality of
Life
Social Progress
Index
United States
17.5
6
16
Australia
16.8
1
10
Canada
14.7
3
6
Norway
11.7
4
1
Germany
9.1
Denmark
8.1
7
8
United Kingdom
8.0
10
11
Iceland
6.1
9
4
France
5.8
Sweden
5.6
2
2
Switzerland
5.0
5
3
14
21
Economic Growth
Improving Quality of Life
Decoupling from environmental impact
Decoupling from environmental impact
Decoupling from environmental impact
Valid for:
 Many forms of pollution
 Deforestation
Not Valid for (yet):
 Energy use
 Land use
Kuznet Environmental Curve
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Peak 2005
12% drop by 2012
Improving Quality of Life &
Decoupling from environmental impact
Non-resource intensive ways to improve
our quality of life
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Education, Science
Information-economy
Arts / entertainment
Personal development
Community development
Personal relationships

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Health (physical and mental)
Physical recreation
Safety, Security
Increased social and economic
justice
Increased opportunity
Environmental restoration
Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) vs GDP
Long Term Sustainability
8 Billion years from now
Characteristics of a
Sustainable Civilization
1.
2.
Decarbonize: energy production,
industry, and transportation
Managing the Global Commons


3.
4.
5.
Oceans, Atmosphere, Biosphere
Take regenerative steps
Manage economic disruptions
and incentives
Social Justice / Governance
Advance our knowledge and
technology
Next Month’s Topic
Why this is the most important time to be alive
in human history.
Other Future Topics:
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Evolution of cooperation
Technology and unemployment
Optimism - Why 2015 was the best year in the history of humanity
The Great Turning - Ideas from Joanna Macy and David Korten
The changing myths of our place in the universe
Exponentially increasing rates of change and the implications
The modern problem of stone-age instincts and supernormal stimuli
Moral instincts, tribalism, meaning, and religion
Systems view of the world and emerging properties
Economic growth, past, future, and inequality
"Managing the Commons" - Moving beyond the old categories of capitalism,
socialism, and communism towards what's really important
The future of Artificial Intelligence and its implications
The future of Synthetic Biology and its implications
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Why I’m doing this
UnderstandingTheFuture.com
•
What we’re going to do tonight
Contact Information
Mike Ignatowski
Email: [email protected]
Blog:
UnderstandingTheFuture.com
(These charts will be available on my blog)
Can We Really Have
a Sustainable
Society?
(Here)
Can We Really Have
a Sustainable
Society?
Can We Really Have
a Sustainable
Society?