Download 2017_74: Plants for water: assessing the impacts of climate change

2017_74: Plants for water: assessing the impacts of
climate change on plants linked to water
provisioning in the highlands of the Tropical Andes
Supervisors: Dr Mauricio Diazgranados ([email protected]) and Dr
Wouter Buytaert (Civil and Environmental Engineering)
Department: Royal Botanical Gardens, Kew
Climate change impacts on biodiversity are widespread and are likely to be as
dramatic in the high elevations as in the high latitudes. From an ecological perspective,
the projected effects are multidimensional and have been studied for individual
species as well as for interacting species in simplified communities, but rarely for
ecosystem services. Approximately 20–30% of all species are likely to be at increased
risk of extinction with a rise in global average temperature of 1.5–2.5 C, and
widespread extinctions are predicted for the upcoming decades. Plants are paramount
ecosystem services providers, and the impact of climate change on them can cause
declines or changes on our natural capital assets. What would be the consequence
for the water provisioning if plants related to this ecosystem service face changes in
population size, distribution, or even extinction? Some plants, for instance, can act as
living sponges, preserving the water in their tissues and slowly releasing it during the
dry seasons. Therefore, reduced populations or habitat changes can alter the water
availability in different ways.
Because of its sensitivity to climate change, its incredibly high diversity and
endemicity, and its long history of human presence, the Tropical Andes are considered
a global Biodiversity Hotspot, and an excellent model system to study the impacts of
climate change. The ecosystems located above the timberline on top of the Tropical
Andes, i.e. the paramos, yungas and punas, play a key role in provisioning water for
millions of inhabitants. A few integral studies have been carried out to estimate the
impacts of climate change on the water provisioning service of these ecosystems,
based on detailed climate models. But none of them have included modelling the
impacts on the dominant plants related to water provisioning, to have a better
understanding of the consequences for ecosystems and livelihoods of human
communities.
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet
Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet
This project aims to study the impacts of climate change on the distributions of species
associated to water provisioning in the highlands of the Tropical Andes. The specific
objectives are to:
1) Identify candidate plant species associated to water provisioning in the páramos,
yungas and punas.
2) Compile a robust database of their current distributions, based on herbarium
records and fieldwork.
3) Develop species environmental niche models (ENMs) for the candidate species,
project the future distribution under the CMIP5 scenarios (2050 and 2070) and
calculate the uncertainty generated by different Global Circulation Models and
modelling algorithms.
4) Analyze the potential consequences for the water provisioning.
5) Register risks for the species as surrogates of the water provisioning ecosystem
service.
Results will contribute to: understanding the impacts of climate change taking into
account the role of plants for water provisioning; provide discussions about
comparisons between global circulation models and between modelling algorithms;
register risks for the studied species, that will allow further monitoring and follow-up
on future scenarios; and inform decision-making processes for climate change
mitigation and ecosystem-based adaptation for our future wellbeing.
For more information on how to apply visit us at www.imperial.ac.uk/changingplanet