Survey							
                            
		                
		                * Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Insights from complexity science for the practice of medicine Robert A. Lindberg, MD Darien, CT Plexus Institute Plexus Complexity Science  Other labels used: – Chaos Theory – Nonlinear Dynamics – Science of Complex Adaptive Systems – Systems Theory  Deals with the behavior and properties of systems Plexus System definition  A collection of agents interconnected around a common purpose Plexus System examples  Weather system  Phone system  Internet  Stock Market  Central Nervous System  Immune System  Human Body Plexus Complex Dynamic System Properties Weather  Agents obey Simple Rules – Wind, water, thermodynamics, etc  Continual Dynamic Interplay between all the interconnected agents  Net consequence cannot be forecast nor engineered Plexus Weather patterns U N I T TIME Plexus Complex Adaptive System Stock Market  Agents follow simple rules – e.g. buy low, sell high  Dynamic interplay between agents that have the ability to learn and adapt  Consequences cannot be forecast or engineered Plexus Dow Jones Average U N I T TIME Plexus Properties of Complex Nonlinear Systems  Simple Rules underlie complexity of system  “Nonlinear” or variable  Emergent order or stability created by the dynamic interactions between the agents of the system Plexus Relevance of Complexity Science to Medicine  Alternative model to the Mechanistic or Reductionist Model – Understand the whole by studying the parts – The body is similar to a machine with independent parts  Concept of the human body as a complex adaptive system  Systems embedded within systems  The sum is greater than the parts Plexus Human Body = Complex Adaptive System  Comprised of many systems – Central Nervous System – Immune System – Cardiovascular System – G.I. System – Etc.  Systems embedded within systems Plexus Human Body Interacting with Larger Systems  Nature  Ecosystems  Solar Cycles  Micro-organisms  Families, Organizations  System embedded within systems Plexus Complexity Determinants  Number of Interconnected Agents and  Number of Connections Plexus Signature of Complex System behavior over time  Waves, Rhythms, Oscillations, 1/f Noise, Chaotic Resonance, Nonlinear Dynamics, etc. Plexus Thermostat – Closed System T E M P Plexus Thermostat – Open System T E M P Plexus Simple vs Complex Systems Plexus Pattern of a Simple System: two agents, one connection Plexus Pattern of a complex system: many agents, many connections Plexus Diurnal Thermostat System Plexus Circadian Body Temperature Plexus Circadian Body Temperature wave on a wave Plexus Waves vs Particles  Observing the pattern of a system’s “waves” provides insight into it’s relative health and degree of complexity  Wave patterns suggest the number of agents and the number of connections and their relative responsiveness to each other Plexus Some examples of waves or rhythms  Heart rate  Brainwaves  Temperature curve  Action potential of nerves, muscles  Blood pressure  Hormonal pulses  Circadian rhythm Plexus Heart Rate Variability (HRV)  An Independent Risk Factor for All Cause Mortality  Why? – Represents a wave or rhythm indicative of the degree of physiologic health of the human system Plexus Normal Heart Rate Variability Beats per minute time Plexus Heart Rate Variability  The Heart Rate cycles in a Wave like pattern over time  A reflection of the behavior of the Cardiovascular System interacting and connected to many other agents  Its pattern has prognostic implications  A signature of complex systems behavior Plexus Abnormal Heart Rate Variability Beats Per minute time Plexus Chronotropic Response Beats per minute with exercise time Plexus Usefulness of impaired chronotropic response to exercise as a predictor of mortality  Chronotropic incompetence is a strong and independent predictor of death, even after accounting for angio severity of CAD  384 pt’s for Thallium stress tests  Dresing;Am J Cardiol 2000;86:602 Plexus Prognostic implications of chronotropic incompetence in the Framingham Heart Study  An attenuated heart rate response to exercise is predictive of increased mortality and coronary heart disease incidence  1575 males, mean age 43, prospective  Lauer;Circulation.1996;93:1520 Plexus Effects of exercise training on chronotropic incompetence in pt’s with heart failure  Exercise results in an increase in peak heart rate and partial reversal of chronotropic incompetence in patients with stable heart failure  Keteyian; Am Heart J. 1999;138:233 Plexus Heart Rate Recovery Beats per minute time Plexus Heart-Rate Recovery Immediately After Exercise as a Predictor of Mortality  A delayed decrease in the heart rate during the first minute after graded exercise…is a powerful and independent predictor of the risk of death  Cole; NEJM 1999;341:1351-7 Plexus Heart Rate Recovery after Submaximal Exercise Testing as a Predictor of Mortality  Healthy Cohorts, routine testing  Heart rate recovery 2 minutes after ETT  Reduced HR recovery a powerful independent predictor of mortality in healthy adults  Cole; Annals of Int Med. 2000;132:552 Plexus Heart rate variability + Chronotropic response Heart rate recovery Plexus Heart Rate Variability Beats per minute time Plexus Normal Heart Rate Variability rest exertion Plexus Decreased Heart Rate Variability rest exertion Plexus Decreased HRV and its association with increased mortality after acute MI  Multicenter Post-Infarction research group  Reduced HRV post MI poor prognosis independent of traditional risk factors  Kleiger. Am J Cardiol. 1987;59:256 Plexus HRV as a predictor of mortality in the Elderly  Random sample of elderly over 65, # 347 followed for 10 yrs  Prognostic power of traditional risk factors compared  24 hr HRV best predictor of death in elderly subjects  Circulation 1998;97:2031 Plexus Reduced Heart Rate Variability and Mortality Risk in an Elderly Cohort  2 hour Holter Moniter analysis  Estimation of HRV offers prognostic information for all cause mortality beyond that provided by evaluation of traditional risk factors  Circulation. 1994;90:878-883  Framingham Heart Study Plexus HRV Components  The Wave Model of HRV  Amplitude – Rate of Change – Degree of Change  Frequency – Variation in frequency rate Plexus HRV Amplitude -- degree of change good bad Plexus HRV Amplitude -- rate of change good bad Plexus HRV Frequency good bad Plexus Cardiac Interbeat Interval Dynamics From Childhood to Senescence  Healthy aging is associated with a loss of complex variability in R-R intervals  New methods of R-R interval variability based on nonlinear dynamics may give insight into heart rate dynamics  Pikkujamsa;Circulation.1999;100:393 Plexus Heritability of HRV The Framingham Heart Study  Holter moniter data, comparing siblings  “Heritable factors may explain a substantial proportion of the variance in HR and HRV”  Singh;Circulation.1999;99:2251 Plexus Association of Depression With Reduced HRV in Coronary Artery Disease  Depressed patients with CAD have decreased HRV compared with nondepressed CAD patients even after adjusting for relevant covariates  Decreased HRV may explain the increased risk for cardiac mortality and morbidity in depressed patients  Carney;Am J Cardiol 1995;76:562 Plexus HRV in healthy middle age pts, post MI pts and heart transplants  HRV excellent predictor of death of any cause or arrhythmic death  Heart Transplant most reduced HRV  Circulation. 1996;93:2142 Plexus Association of hyperglycemia with reduced HRV  Framingham Heart Study  HRV is inversely associated with plasma glucose levels. It is reduced in both DM and in subjects with impaired fasting glucose  Does reduced HRV contribute to increased cardiac mortality of DM and impaired FBG?  Am J Cardiol 2000;86:309 Plexus Short and long term effects of cigarette smoking on HRV  Smoking results in decreased vagal cardiac control leading to diminished HRV  Hayano; Am J Cardiol 1990;65:84 Plexus Decreased HRV associations – a few examples  Aging  Diseases – CHF, Parkinsons, DM, Cancer, Depression  Syndromes – Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, Sleep Apnea, Septic Shock  Lifestyle – Smoking, Sedentary Plexus Reduced HRV precedes Arrhythmias – atrial and ventricular  Cardiac mortality  All cause mortality  Manifest disease  Plexus Altered Complexity and Correlation Properties of R-R Interval Dynamics Before Spontaneous Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation  A decrease in HRV precedes the onset of AF in patients with no structural heart disease  Vikman;Circulation.1999;100:2079 Plexus Low HRV in a 2 minute rhythm strip predicts rsk of CHD & mortality from several causes  Middle aged men and women  Low HRV predictive of increased mortality rates…this relation could not be attributed to cardiovascular risk factors or to underlying disease  Low HRV precedes manifest disease  Dekker;Circulation.2000;102:1239 Plexus Decomplexification in critical illness and injury: Relationship between HRV, severity of illness, and outcome  135 pediatric ICU admissions, mean age 6.8  Decomplexification of physiologic dynamics is equivalent to loss of variability or increased regularity  The greater the severity of illness, the less HRV was detected. Applied to all illnesses  Crit Care Med 1998;26:352-357 Plexus Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome  Linked with progressive reduction in Heart Rate Variability as the syndrome progresses  HRV reflects trends and level of severity  Correlation holds regardless of the inciting event of MODS Plexus Uncoupling of biologic oscillators: A hypothesis re the pathogenesis of MODS  Healthy organs behave as biologic oscillators, coupled and maintained by a communications network that includes neural, humoral and cytokine components  HRV is a reflection of the degree of coupling between organ systems  Godin; Crit Care Med;1996 Plexus Coupling of biological oscillators Heart CNS Immune Coupling Plexus MODS and HRV  SIRS initiates disruption of communication and uncoupling which if severe enough leads to MODS  MODS a consequence of the uncoupling of organ systems as reflected by loss of biologic oscillations or variability  HRV decreases as SIRS and MODS unfolds Plexus Uncoupling of biologic oscillators: A hypothesis re the pathogenesis of MODS  HRV decreases (organ isolation) with age  HRV decreases (organ isolation) with SIRS  Advanced age and SIRS means higher risk for MODS (irreversible organ isolation)  Crit Care Med 1996;24:1107 Plexus Experimental human endotoxemia increases cardiac regularity      Prospective, randomized, crossover trial Infusion of endotoxin into human volunteers causes loss of HRV HRV is an indicator of coupling between biologic oscillators(e.g. heart, brain, lung) MODS caused by an uncoupling of organ systems Crit Care Med 1996;24:1117 Plexus Decreased HRV  Implies reduced interconnections  Associated with reduced waves or rhythms throughout, ie – Temperature Variability – Diurnal Rhythms – Hormonal Pulses – Gait, agility, CNS activity, EEG pattern Plexus Wave resonance - healthy  Heart rate  Brain  Temperature  Diurnal Plexus Wave resonance - unhealthy  Heart  Brain  Temperature  Diurnal Plexus HRV Implications  HRV = Wave  Wave = Signature of system dynamics  System Dynamics = Complexity  Complexity = Biologic Health/Resiliency Plexus Biologic Resiliency  Biology is mutually supportive systems  Systems embedded within systems  The rich and responsive interconnections between systems is key to robust health  Wave patterns reflect the status of the interconnections and the responsiveness of the agents Plexus Implications of HRV  Insights from wave patterns  Pharmacology  Lifestyle choices  Influencing HRV with training  Ubiquity of waves or rhythms  Everything is connected to everything else Plexus HRV Implications  Wave pattern implications – Decrease complexity = poor health – Increase complexity = good health Plexus HRV Implications  Pharmacology – Medications that can decrease HRV  Amitryptiline, Anticholinergics, Anti-arryhthmics – Medications that can increase HRV in CHF  Beta blockers, spironolactone – Testing of prospective new drugs Plexus HRV Implications  Lifestyle choices – Decrease HRV  Smoking  Sedentary – Increase HRV  Exercise  Meditation or relaxation techniques Plexus HRV Implications  Influencing HRV with training – Sprinters have high HRV – Ultra marathoners have low HRV  Sprint training may have more of a health benefit than endurance training Plexus HRV Implications  Ubiquity of waves or rhythms at all levels – Biochemical oscillation – Cell cycles – Organ system – Organisms – Biosphere Plexus HRV Implications  Everything is connected to everything else Plexus Circadian (24 hr) Rhythm an indicator of system health 6 am 12 noon Plexus 6 pm 12 pm Healthy Circadian Rhythm “waves on waves” 6 am 12 noon Plexus 6 pm 12 pm Abnormal Circadian Rhythm less “waves on waves” 6 am 12 noon 6 pm Plexus 12 pm Plexus end Plexus Plexus Heart Rate Variability A risk factor for all cause mortality Robert A. Lindberg, MD Plexus Effects of Spironolactone on HRV and LV systolic function in severe ischemic heart failure  In CHF pt’s on conventional medications, the addition of spironolactone induces a favorable sympathovagal balance  Korkmaz; Am J Cardiol 2000;86:649 Plexus Non-linear dynamics for clinicians: chaos theory, fractals, and complexity at the bedside  Normal HRV represents multiscale fractal complexity of the heart rate  Abnormal HRV represents loss of multiscale fractal complexity  Goldberger;Lancet.1996;347:1312 Plexus Multifractality in human heartbeat dynamics  Physiological signals under healthy conditions have a fractal temporal structure  The healthy human heartbeat has fractal scaling  There is a loss of fractal scaling in congestive heart failure  Ivanov;Nature.1999;399:461 Plexus Fractals  An object composed of subunits that resembles the larger scale structure, a property known as self-similarity  At each scale of magnification, the pattern remains the same Plexus Classical vs Fractal Geometry  Classical Geometry – Smooth, regular, and integer dimensions (1, 2 and 3 for line, surface and volume respectively)  Fractal Geometry – Rough, irregular and non-integer, or fractional dimensions Plexus Classical (Euclidian) vs Fractal Line  Classical: single scale and length  Fractal: multiple scales, self-similar Plexus Examples of Fractal Structures  Trees, coral formations, clouds, coastlines, mountain ranges, galaxies  Arterial and venous trees, neurons, tracheobronchial tree, His Purkinje network, intestinal villi Plexus Examples of Non Fractal Structures Plexus Fractal Structures Plexus Fractal Processes  Fractal processes generate irregular fluctuations on multiple time scales, analogous to fractal objects that have wrinkly structure on different length scales  The variation over time is statistically selfsimilar Plexus Examples of Fractal Processes  Weather patterns, Dow Jones average, population dynamics  Heart Rate, Respirations, Blood pressure, WBC counts, temperature  Demonstrate Self-Similar Dynamics Plexus Complex Nonlinear Systems  A system consisting of a large and variable number of component parts  The components display marked variability over time  There is a high degree of connectivity and interdependence between variables Plexus Complex nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in nature  Weather patterns  Biosphere of our planet  Stock market  Ecosystem of a tropical rain forest  Central nervous system  Immune system Plexus Relevance of Complexity Science to Medicine  Concept of the human body as a complex adaptive system  Systems embedded within systems  The sum is greater than the parts Plexus