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Insights from complexity science for the practice of medicine Robert A. Lindberg, MD Darien, CT Plexus Institute Plexus Complexity Science Other labels used: – Chaos Theory – Nonlinear Dynamics – Science of Complex Adaptive Systems – Systems Theory Deals with the behavior and properties of systems Plexus System definition A collection of agents interconnected around a common purpose Plexus System examples Weather system Phone system Internet Stock Market Central Nervous System Immune System Human Body Plexus Complex Dynamic System Properties Weather Agents obey Simple Rules – Wind, water, thermodynamics, etc Continual Dynamic Interplay between all the interconnected agents Net consequence cannot be forecast nor engineered Plexus Weather patterns U N I T TIME Plexus Complex Adaptive System Stock Market Agents follow simple rules – e.g. buy low, sell high Dynamic interplay between agents that have the ability to learn and adapt Consequences cannot be forecast or engineered Plexus Dow Jones Average U N I T TIME Plexus Properties of Complex Nonlinear Systems Simple Rules underlie complexity of system “Nonlinear” or variable Emergent order or stability created by the dynamic interactions between the agents of the system Plexus Relevance of Complexity Science to Medicine Alternative model to the Mechanistic or Reductionist Model – Understand the whole by studying the parts – The body is similar to a machine with independent parts Concept of the human body as a complex adaptive system Systems embedded within systems The sum is greater than the parts Plexus Human Body = Complex Adaptive System Comprised of many systems – Central Nervous System – Immune System – Cardiovascular System – G.I. System – Etc. Systems embedded within systems Plexus Human Body Interacting with Larger Systems Nature Ecosystems Solar Cycles Micro-organisms Families, Organizations System embedded within systems Plexus Complexity Determinants Number of Interconnected Agents and Number of Connections Plexus Signature of Complex System behavior over time Waves, Rhythms, Oscillations, 1/f Noise, Chaotic Resonance, Nonlinear Dynamics, etc. Plexus Thermostat – Closed System T E M P Plexus Thermostat – Open System T E M P Plexus Simple vs Complex Systems Plexus Pattern of a Simple System: two agents, one connection Plexus Pattern of a complex system: many agents, many connections Plexus Diurnal Thermostat System Plexus Circadian Body Temperature Plexus Circadian Body Temperature wave on a wave Plexus Waves vs Particles Observing the pattern of a system’s “waves” provides insight into it’s relative health and degree of complexity Wave patterns suggest the number of agents and the number of connections and their relative responsiveness to each other Plexus Some examples of waves or rhythms Heart rate Brainwaves Temperature curve Action potential of nerves, muscles Blood pressure Hormonal pulses Circadian rhythm Plexus Heart Rate Variability (HRV) An Independent Risk Factor for All Cause Mortality Why? – Represents a wave or rhythm indicative of the degree of physiologic health of the human system Plexus Normal Heart Rate Variability Beats per minute time Plexus Heart Rate Variability The Heart Rate cycles in a Wave like pattern over time A reflection of the behavior of the Cardiovascular System interacting and connected to many other agents Its pattern has prognostic implications A signature of complex systems behavior Plexus Abnormal Heart Rate Variability Beats Per minute time Plexus Chronotropic Response Beats per minute with exercise time Plexus Usefulness of impaired chronotropic response to exercise as a predictor of mortality Chronotropic incompetence is a strong and independent predictor of death, even after accounting for angio severity of CAD 384 pt’s for Thallium stress tests Dresing;Am J Cardiol 2000;86:602 Plexus Prognostic implications of chronotropic incompetence in the Framingham Heart Study An attenuated heart rate response to exercise is predictive of increased mortality and coronary heart disease incidence 1575 males, mean age 43, prospective Lauer;Circulation.1996;93:1520 Plexus Effects of exercise training on chronotropic incompetence in pt’s with heart failure Exercise results in an increase in peak heart rate and partial reversal of chronotropic incompetence in patients with stable heart failure Keteyian; Am Heart J. 1999;138:233 Plexus Heart Rate Recovery Beats per minute time Plexus Heart-Rate Recovery Immediately After Exercise as a Predictor of Mortality A delayed decrease in the heart rate during the first minute after graded exercise…is a powerful and independent predictor of the risk of death Cole; NEJM 1999;341:1351-7 Plexus Heart Rate Recovery after Submaximal Exercise Testing as a Predictor of Mortality Healthy Cohorts, routine testing Heart rate recovery 2 minutes after ETT Reduced HR recovery a powerful independent predictor of mortality in healthy adults Cole; Annals of Int Med. 2000;132:552 Plexus Heart rate variability + Chronotropic response Heart rate recovery Plexus Heart Rate Variability Beats per minute time Plexus Normal Heart Rate Variability rest exertion Plexus Decreased Heart Rate Variability rest exertion Plexus Decreased HRV and its association with increased mortality after acute MI Multicenter Post-Infarction research group Reduced HRV post MI poor prognosis independent of traditional risk factors Kleiger. Am J Cardiol. 1987;59:256 Plexus HRV as a predictor of mortality in the Elderly Random sample of elderly over 65, # 347 followed for 10 yrs Prognostic power of traditional risk factors compared 24 hr HRV best predictor of death in elderly subjects Circulation 1998;97:2031 Plexus Reduced Heart Rate Variability and Mortality Risk in an Elderly Cohort 2 hour Holter Moniter analysis Estimation of HRV offers prognostic information for all cause mortality beyond that provided by evaluation of traditional risk factors Circulation. 1994;90:878-883 Framingham Heart Study Plexus HRV Components The Wave Model of HRV Amplitude – Rate of Change – Degree of Change Frequency – Variation in frequency rate Plexus HRV Amplitude -- degree of change good bad Plexus HRV Amplitude -- rate of change good bad Plexus HRV Frequency good bad Plexus Cardiac Interbeat Interval Dynamics From Childhood to Senescence Healthy aging is associated with a loss of complex variability in R-R intervals New methods of R-R interval variability based on nonlinear dynamics may give insight into heart rate dynamics Pikkujamsa;Circulation.1999;100:393 Plexus Heritability of HRV The Framingham Heart Study Holter moniter data, comparing siblings “Heritable factors may explain a substantial proportion of the variance in HR and HRV” Singh;Circulation.1999;99:2251 Plexus Association of Depression With Reduced HRV in Coronary Artery Disease Depressed patients with CAD have decreased HRV compared with nondepressed CAD patients even after adjusting for relevant covariates Decreased HRV may explain the increased risk for cardiac mortality and morbidity in depressed patients Carney;Am J Cardiol 1995;76:562 Plexus HRV in healthy middle age pts, post MI pts and heart transplants HRV excellent predictor of death of any cause or arrhythmic death Heart Transplant most reduced HRV Circulation. 1996;93:2142 Plexus Association of hyperglycemia with reduced HRV Framingham Heart Study HRV is inversely associated with plasma glucose levels. It is reduced in both DM and in subjects with impaired fasting glucose Does reduced HRV contribute to increased cardiac mortality of DM and impaired FBG? Am J Cardiol 2000;86:309 Plexus Short and long term effects of cigarette smoking on HRV Smoking results in decreased vagal cardiac control leading to diminished HRV Hayano; Am J Cardiol 1990;65:84 Plexus Decreased HRV associations – a few examples Aging Diseases – CHF, Parkinsons, DM, Cancer, Depression Syndromes – Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, Sleep Apnea, Septic Shock Lifestyle – Smoking, Sedentary Plexus Reduced HRV precedes Arrhythmias – atrial and ventricular Cardiac mortality All cause mortality Manifest disease Plexus Altered Complexity and Correlation Properties of R-R Interval Dynamics Before Spontaneous Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation A decrease in HRV precedes the onset of AF in patients with no structural heart disease Vikman;Circulation.1999;100:2079 Plexus Low HRV in a 2 minute rhythm strip predicts rsk of CHD & mortality from several causes Middle aged men and women Low HRV predictive of increased mortality rates…this relation could not be attributed to cardiovascular risk factors or to underlying disease Low HRV precedes manifest disease Dekker;Circulation.2000;102:1239 Plexus Decomplexification in critical illness and injury: Relationship between HRV, severity of illness, and outcome 135 pediatric ICU admissions, mean age 6.8 Decomplexification of physiologic dynamics is equivalent to loss of variability or increased regularity The greater the severity of illness, the less HRV was detected. Applied to all illnesses Crit Care Med 1998;26:352-357 Plexus Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome Linked with progressive reduction in Heart Rate Variability as the syndrome progresses HRV reflects trends and level of severity Correlation holds regardless of the inciting event of MODS Plexus Uncoupling of biologic oscillators: A hypothesis re the pathogenesis of MODS Healthy organs behave as biologic oscillators, coupled and maintained by a communications network that includes neural, humoral and cytokine components HRV is a reflection of the degree of coupling between organ systems Godin; Crit Care Med;1996 Plexus Coupling of biological oscillators Heart CNS Immune Coupling Plexus MODS and HRV SIRS initiates disruption of communication and uncoupling which if severe enough leads to MODS MODS a consequence of the uncoupling of organ systems as reflected by loss of biologic oscillations or variability HRV decreases as SIRS and MODS unfolds Plexus Uncoupling of biologic oscillators: A hypothesis re the pathogenesis of MODS HRV decreases (organ isolation) with age HRV decreases (organ isolation) with SIRS Advanced age and SIRS means higher risk for MODS (irreversible organ isolation) Crit Care Med 1996;24:1107 Plexus Experimental human endotoxemia increases cardiac regularity Prospective, randomized, crossover trial Infusion of endotoxin into human volunteers causes loss of HRV HRV is an indicator of coupling between biologic oscillators(e.g. heart, brain, lung) MODS caused by an uncoupling of organ systems Crit Care Med 1996;24:1117 Plexus Decreased HRV Implies reduced interconnections Associated with reduced waves or rhythms throughout, ie – Temperature Variability – Diurnal Rhythms – Hormonal Pulses – Gait, agility, CNS activity, EEG pattern Plexus Wave resonance - healthy Heart rate Brain Temperature Diurnal Plexus Wave resonance - unhealthy Heart Brain Temperature Diurnal Plexus HRV Implications HRV = Wave Wave = Signature of system dynamics System Dynamics = Complexity Complexity = Biologic Health/Resiliency Plexus Biologic Resiliency Biology is mutually supportive systems Systems embedded within systems The rich and responsive interconnections between systems is key to robust health Wave patterns reflect the status of the interconnections and the responsiveness of the agents Plexus Implications of HRV Insights from wave patterns Pharmacology Lifestyle choices Influencing HRV with training Ubiquity of waves or rhythms Everything is connected to everything else Plexus HRV Implications Wave pattern implications – Decrease complexity = poor health – Increase complexity = good health Plexus HRV Implications Pharmacology – Medications that can decrease HRV Amitryptiline, Anticholinergics, Anti-arryhthmics – Medications that can increase HRV in CHF Beta blockers, spironolactone – Testing of prospective new drugs Plexus HRV Implications Lifestyle choices – Decrease HRV Smoking Sedentary – Increase HRV Exercise Meditation or relaxation techniques Plexus HRV Implications Influencing HRV with training – Sprinters have high HRV – Ultra marathoners have low HRV Sprint training may have more of a health benefit than endurance training Plexus HRV Implications Ubiquity of waves or rhythms at all levels – Biochemical oscillation – Cell cycles – Organ system – Organisms – Biosphere Plexus HRV Implications Everything is connected to everything else Plexus Circadian (24 hr) Rhythm an indicator of system health 6 am 12 noon Plexus 6 pm 12 pm Healthy Circadian Rhythm “waves on waves” 6 am 12 noon Plexus 6 pm 12 pm Abnormal Circadian Rhythm less “waves on waves” 6 am 12 noon 6 pm Plexus 12 pm Plexus end Plexus Plexus Heart Rate Variability A risk factor for all cause mortality Robert A. Lindberg, MD Plexus Effects of Spironolactone on HRV and LV systolic function in severe ischemic heart failure In CHF pt’s on conventional medications, the addition of spironolactone induces a favorable sympathovagal balance Korkmaz; Am J Cardiol 2000;86:649 Plexus Non-linear dynamics for clinicians: chaos theory, fractals, and complexity at the bedside Normal HRV represents multiscale fractal complexity of the heart rate Abnormal HRV represents loss of multiscale fractal complexity Goldberger;Lancet.1996;347:1312 Plexus Multifractality in human heartbeat dynamics Physiological signals under healthy conditions have a fractal temporal structure The healthy human heartbeat has fractal scaling There is a loss of fractal scaling in congestive heart failure Ivanov;Nature.1999;399:461 Plexus Fractals An object composed of subunits that resembles the larger scale structure, a property known as self-similarity At each scale of magnification, the pattern remains the same Plexus Classical vs Fractal Geometry Classical Geometry – Smooth, regular, and integer dimensions (1, 2 and 3 for line, surface and volume respectively) Fractal Geometry – Rough, irregular and non-integer, or fractional dimensions Plexus Classical (Euclidian) vs Fractal Line Classical: single scale and length Fractal: multiple scales, self-similar Plexus Examples of Fractal Structures Trees, coral formations, clouds, coastlines, mountain ranges, galaxies Arterial and venous trees, neurons, tracheobronchial tree, His Purkinje network, intestinal villi Plexus Examples of Non Fractal Structures Plexus Fractal Structures Plexus Fractal Processes Fractal processes generate irregular fluctuations on multiple time scales, analogous to fractal objects that have wrinkly structure on different length scales The variation over time is statistically selfsimilar Plexus Examples of Fractal Processes Weather patterns, Dow Jones average, population dynamics Heart Rate, Respirations, Blood pressure, WBC counts, temperature Demonstrate Self-Similar Dynamics Plexus Complex Nonlinear Systems A system consisting of a large and variable number of component parts The components display marked variability over time There is a high degree of connectivity and interdependence between variables Plexus Complex nonlinear systems are ubiquitous in nature Weather patterns Biosphere of our planet Stock market Ecosystem of a tropical rain forest Central nervous system Immune system Plexus Relevance of Complexity Science to Medicine Concept of the human body as a complex adaptive system Systems embedded within systems The sum is greater than the parts Plexus